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Starting with SURVIVORFEVER's spoil sheet:

Fairplay: Short Timer
Mary: Early Boot - Episode 2
Chet: Out Pre-Jury
Kathleen: Out Pre-Merge
Tracy: Out Pre-Merge
Yau-Man: Out Pre-Merge

Cirie: ?
Joel: ?
Jonathan: ?
Mikey B: ?

Eliza: First Juror
Jason: Early-Mid Jury?
Erik: Makes Jury?
Ami: Mid-Game
James: Makes Jury
Ozzy: Mid-Jury

Alexis: Mid-Jury to Late Game?
Amanda: Mid-Jury to Late Game
Parvati: Mid-Jury to Late Game
Natalie: Late Game?

If Fever is the primary spoiler list we use, adding information from others spoil sheets with cred only when it doesn't disagree with Fever …

Then:

E1 - Jon (Quits)
E2 - Mary/Kathleen (Removed)
E3 - Tracy
E4 - Yau
E5 - Jonathon/Michael (Removed, Injury)
E6 - Chet
E7 - Recap Show
E8 - Eliza, Jury Begins at 12, Tribes move to a single camp but remain unmerged.
E9 - Ami
E10 - Merge - Joel/Erik (Double Elimination)
E11 - Jason
E12 - Ozzie
E13 - James

E14 - Final 5 - Pavrati, Amanda, Natalie, Alexis, Cirie

Here's the details through the merge:

E1 "You Guys are Dumber than You Look" - The Faves win RC1 and get fire/useful gear (smoke in pics at Faves' camp). The Faves have some advantage having played the game before and knowing what to expect. But the LA Recruits rally and win IC1. Jon quits. Pawpaw - survivor.com - raises the idea that Jon's rant/meltdown is extra funny and idiotic given that Pavrati was actually the target.

E2 "Sounds of Jungle Love" (thanks They Say) - The Faves win IC2. The Recruits have several weak players; Mary, Kathleen and Tracy … but decide to rid themselves of a high-maintenance poser and/or socially inept - Mary. This kill is led my Michael who spares no punches in calling Mary out. I believe this is the disturbing episode where Kathleen's mental issues arise and she is removed from the game by the producers after trying to cut off her fingers with a machete. I thought it would take longer for Kathy to wig out, but the trouble is that the Producers must have intended three double eliminations to get from 20 down to 5 to start E14 (I'll post my thoughts on game design separately). I also like Kathy wigging in E2, because it helps explain Mary getting voted out first. It sounds like the episode will play up Ozzie-Amanda and Pavrati-James. If this is Kathleen's wig out, they are going to downplay it and go with sex. I really want to get E3's title ASAP.

E3 - The Recruits are exhausted mentally and physically and lose the IC … voting off Tracy. Michael again is brutally frank at the TC and targets his judgment and wrath on Tracy. I prefer slightly Tracy before Yau, because Yau gets exiled at least once and that gives him slightly more longevity than any we have on Tracey. I also like Tracy before Yau because it is possible Michael is injured E4 and I need Michael to be at at least two TCs so that Probst can comment on his TC performances.

E4 - The Recruits try to comeback. The first 9 days have bonded the group and the remaining seven come together winning IC4. The Faves cut Yau loose. The flight is NOT back home but to Guam, where the Early Boots are housed. Keeping them for three-four weeks on Palau would have invited an observation. And the idea that they were sent back "home" is wrong ...

E5 - Chet has by now cut his foot badly on coral. The Recruits are really struggling with the physical/mental side of the game - shelter, water and food and sanity. Joel steps up his leadership and tries to rally the Recruits again.

Michael is injured at the either the RC or IC and has to be removed from the game, he could have been removed E4, but E5 works slightly better. I believe this for several reasons. Even if Michael is a difficult guy socially (which can be read in Probst TC comments about Michael) it's hard to see the Recruits eliminating a strong male this early by choice. But Michael is universally a pre-jury boot. Michael, in his interviews comes off like a typical LA actor/narcissist and maybe an outright asshole. If this is so, then Chet is the likely injury and second forced removal. Kathleen was removed due to mental illness. Chet, according to Fever "asks to be voted out" due to his cut foot injury. This suggests that Chet is NOT the second removal from the game … but fits early rumor that injured players (Amanda and Chet?) keep playing through injury. Michael's removal E4/5 works well for allowing the Faves to vote out Jonathon pre-merge.

Consider that at the start of S16, the Producers must have intended for 4 double eliminations including E14. 20 is way too many people to keep track of and they probably intended 8 eliminations in the first 6 episodes to allow the recap show E7 and the jury of 11 to start E8 with Eliza (if we assume Fever is correct). Therefore, either the second removal occurs pre-jury OR we must have one double TC episode. I prefer that its a second removal. But a second removal must occur BEFORE the Producers had intended the planned second double TC episode, otherwise the second double TC would have occured and then the injury removal would cause too many eliminations pre-jury.

The Recruits rally behind Joel and manage to win the IC5. This is the most difficult pre-merge episode to figure out. I'm assuming the Faves boot the second favorite here to give Chet as much time as I can to lose weight before being eliminated pre-merge, E6. I discount the Chet loses 30 pounds spoil for several reasons … all known major spoils can't be reconciled, someone is wrong. Chet maybe weighs 160-170 going in. No doubt Chet loses some weight and is thinner upon return home. But to lose 30, unless he's got dysentery, means he's in the end game, which Fever rules out. To me this suggests that the Recruits really struggle with shelter, fire, water and food.

The various spoil lists (Fever, TDT, Danieubleu and 4Kingdoms) do not agree. I favor Fever over all others as the most reliable and conservative. But this means that either E5 or E6 we have to kill off Jonathan or Cirie, as Fever has Pavrati making the merge. Killing Cirie or Jonathon pre-merge also matches Coby's spoil that more than one popular Fave goes early (in addition to Yau). I don't think Coby would consider Pavrati as a favorite. As much as I know this will upset people the greater evidence if you give preference to Fever is, pardon the heresy, Jonathon, especially given that Eliza, his ally, is the 1st Juror.

E6 - This is the Chet elimination, possibly by request at TC.

E7 - Recap show

To understand the second half of the season we first have to spend some time considering game design. A second post next explains Game Design.

I'll post my updated post-Jury, E8-E14, reasoning soon as well as my thought on game design.

Cheers
7

If we learn E1 that Yau's E1-II is good through the next TC the Fave attend

AND

If Jon quits resulting in no TC

THEN

Tullfans order:
20 - Jon
19 - Mary
18 - Tracy
17 - Yau-man
16 - Chet/Kathleen/Jonathan
15 - Chet/Kathleen/Jonathan
14 - Chet/Kathleen/Jonathan
13 - MikeyB

And my order:

E1 - Jon (Quits)
E2 - Mary/Kathleen (Removed)
E3 - Tracy
E4 - Yau
E5 - Jonathon/Michael (Removed, Injury)
E6 - Chet
E7 - Recap Show

Then the "consensus" Pre-Jury Order Becomes something like:
Jon
Mary
Tracy
Jonathan (Yau plays the E1-II and Jonathon is boomeranged)
Yau-man
Chet/Mikey B
Chet/Mikey B

With me having Kathleen going earlier than Tullfan

Cheers
7

From Fever:

(Source: Jeff Probst Teleconference)

We have love affairs this season. Plural. They play from episode two, they start. We have some of the most intimate footage we've ever had of a love affair developing and consummating in a Survivor way. We have the most intimate footage of Survivors being intimate that we've ever had. It was brilliant how we got it. How we captured it because it's hard to do because they try to hide. We out-thought them. It plays a big part in this season all the way to the end.

My Bold ... This confirms from Probst' mouth that Pavrati-James AND/OR Amanda-Ozzie are in the end game. I think that this romance stuff is related to ...

(Source: Jeff Probst Teleconference)

We have a record number of blindsides this season. It is amazing how many blindsides happen in a row. You would think after this many seasons that pulling off a blindside would be tough. But it just showed me, you really have to have your wit about you in this game. If you are not aware then you're in the fog. If you're in the fog, you're in trouble. My jaw dropped at so many votes. At so many Tribal Councils, the Tribal Council would end and I would say to them, "Got me again. And you got them again." You had people scratching their heads going, "How did this happen to me?"

Both Tullfan and I have Eliza-Ami going to the jury first and second while the Faves have a majority. This suggests that there are 2 mid-game episodes between the jury and the merge (meaning all voting at a TC with individually won II) are separated. We may move E8 to a single camp but retain tribal II for the first two TCs (E8/9) at which the first two jurors are selected.

Both Tullfan and I have Ozzie-James going to the jury in a row in the late mid-game/early late game. I think in both cases the mens' lovers betray them.

Since the post-merge Pagonging of the minority Recruit's males Joel, Erik, Jason - which wouldn't be a "blindsiding" follows Ami-Eliza and is prior to Ozzie-James ... this Probst quote fits our boot order very well. Ami-Eliza and Ozzie-James are the in a row blinsidings.

The we have Jeffy telling us:

I can tell you that the idols play a major part in this season. Capital letters. They do have more impact than I think they've ever had. They have more impact this season than ever before. Luckily for James, James currently holds the title of biggest blunder in Survivor history. Luckily for him, he only holds it for one season. Because we have someone this season that makes an even bigger blunder. A major blunder. I know when it happened that James was thinking, thank God.

This tells us a lot ...

1) the "blunder" and the "someone" are both singular.

2) James outlives the "blunder"
3) We've got multi-idol impacts

Assuming the Blunderer is NOT pre-Jury and cannot outlive James (Pavrati, Amanda, Natalie, Cirie, Alexis) ... then the Blunderer is either Eliza, Ami, Joel, Erik, Jason or Ozzie ... but the blunder and the blindside don't fit well ... how can you commit a blunder worse than James and be blindsided at the same time? ... that eliminates Ozzie who is a likely blindside.

There are two good spots for the Blunder ....

1) The best opportunity for a giant blunder is when we merge at 10, E10, with the tribes even 5-5, how gets resolved is known ... the Recruits lose. Why the Recruits lose is an ideal blunder worse than James. The entire game turns here and doing something idiotic could be worse than James' blunder in China. Its poetic too if the ultimate Blunder is committed by a CBS Super-Fan ....errrrr recruit.

This also might fits in with ...

Someone this season does get it "jamie style". (Burned by a fake hidden immunity idol?) (Posted by CobySucks at SurvivorSucks)

There is some spec that Cirie has the HII. Cirie is absolutely a top notch Survivor player and creating a fake HII and replacing the HII with it when she finds it is absolutely plausible. The problem with fake HIIs as we've discussed on fan boards for way before Yau (he hints to getting the idea from the boards) HII are simple in theory and complex in use. Using an HII for positive effect is extremely difficult.

Who do we know goes to Exile at this point? Ami and Yau are the two I know ... its pretty tough to actually place the fake II unless you're in a position to do so.

Then we have:

Jeff Probst (TV Guide Channel Preview): For the open of the show we're going to start off with both tribes separated...an impromptu challenge where they have to swim across the water to another island where there are two individual immunity idols, one for each tribe. The first two people who get 'em, get to use them. The trick is, you have to use it the first time you go to Tribal Council.

For Episode 1 then ... pay attention to whether the other tibe members do or do not know who in their tribe finds the E1-IIs. The word "trick" is curious if everyone else knows you have it.

Also I've been struggling with as have many others with ...

pre-merge boot (Post by Babalu at TWoP: spotted on flight home with Yau-Man and JFP

and Fever adds to it in the Yau bootlist with

(Yau) - pre-merge boot (spotted on flight home with JFP and Tracy)

There are no/limited direct flights from Palau to the USA mainland ... so a connecting flight from Palau to Guam or the Philippines might be interpreted as a flight home by an observer who knew enough to ID Yau and Jon but perhaps not to relaize that Palau is a hard place to stash people in the loser lounge for three-four weeks without being observed. The Loser Lounge was likely on Guam or possibly back in the Phils. Not sure where Fever got Tracy on this flight too.

The debauchery of Fairplay with a per diem in Manila ... but no loss CBS gets Pavrati on the island ....

While many were speculating before spoils that Jon was an obvious early boot and Yau is really vulnerable early too ... this spoil has cred and it was early and has been subsequently supported by other spoils.

More coming ...