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This is a thread about how Edgic is spoiled - SPOILERS IN THREAD

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Kitty Pryde1

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(03/03/08 2:38 PM)

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No. I just click every thread and then leave it so that I don't have that "new message" icon. All the red highlights caught my eye, so I thought I'd read this topic (without highlighting anything to see the names you guys are talking about).

chaperone

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(03/03/08 5:38 PM)

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Cool...just a warning...be careful...even if a couple of us are doing the highlighting several aren't...so I'd suggest staying away.

I tend to have a different view of CT theory, and I know a few disagree with me...but for the record, the complexity isn't about story or about ratings, it's about the question if we asked at any given point in time "who's voting in what direction?" With the fans, the story has been centered around their ineptitude around camp, and when they go to TC they get time of how the vote goes down. But generally, the fans have Joel and the youngins verses the oldies. There's little complexity to the voting dynamics. With the faves it's extremely complex, Cirie is between alliances, Eliza isn't voting in any expected manner, there's tremendous conflict centering around the alliances even when they're not going to TC. Yes, it's all framed around the couples versus non couples, but that's where it stops. You even have within the couples this hint that there's a Parv-Amanda-Cirie thing going on. I don't buy that Parv isn't just gaga over James...but the editing is at least suggesting that there might be more to it.

midnightproblay

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(03/03/08 8:06 PM)

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Did it really not occur to you that someone could be spoiled as to going far but not winning? (In reference to your highlighted post on the first page). Just because that person is spoiled to go far doesn't mean that there hasn't been updated spoilers confirming his or her placing. It would be a valid reason that people wouldn't be supporting that person.

Edgic usually has more spoilers floating around in it than any thread outside of the spoilers board. I would honestly be surprised if more than five Edgicers didn't look at spoilers. When Todd's edit matched the last two winners almost perfectly edit-wise, was it not the least bit perplexing that dozens of Edgic people chose to support Amanda instead?

Oowatanite

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(03/03/08 9:40 PM)

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chaperone wrote:
Here's a 2/13/08 post from Oowatanite:

The spoilers are terrible this season. And they are often conflicting as well. Fairplay's boot was spoiled. And the second boot is probably spoiled as well. And that's pretty much it. There is no bootlist. There is no F5 spoiler. There is no F4 spoiler. There is no F3 spoiler. There is no "Winner" spoiler. There are only a few "goes early" and a few "makes jury" spoilers.

It's a weak spoiling season and it's wide open for Edgic !

Needless to say, I haven't noticed any spoilers creeping into Edgic.
From Cassidy666 (2/17/08):

I've taken a look at spoilers now and again, but not much since the show started. There's no firm bootlist presently from what I gather so it's wide open as to who the winner could be as far as I'm concerned.
Another from ~~ProbstFan~~ Oowatanite (2/18/08):

Once again, only the first two boots were spoiled. There is no bootlist. There is no known F2 or F3 or F4 or F5. Everything is a crapshoot. The few "spoilers" left are a real mishmash of conflicting info. Will a few "spoilers" turn out to be correct? Maybe. Probably, if we use statistical probability theorems. But myself and other "spoilees" really do not know for certain that Player Z finishes in Zth place, etc.

The spoilers this year are MUCH WORSE than last year. And fellow spoilee Probstfan123 has confirmed this in this thread. So please ignore the "drive-by" posters. [hey, that's you, A Bartholemew!]

Just another update on spoilers this season. They still suck. There is still no bootlist. There is still no spoiled winner. Or F3. Or F4. Or F5. There is still conflicting spoilers (ie, one spoiler says Player X goes pre-merge and another spoiler says Player X makes the jury at least). Heck, Mikey was spoiled to make the merge and he was spoiled elsewhere to be booted pre-merge.

So what is spoiled ? Well, the breakdown of the new tribes has been spoiled via CBS TV promos for Ep5 (nice work, CBS !) but I won't reveal the breakdown here. Some players are spoiled to go pre-merge/jury, and others are spoiled to make the jury and a few are even spoiled "mid to late jury". And that's it. Will these pre-jury and post jury spoilers come to fruition ? Maybe. Some of them will, anyway, I'm sure.

But we don't know the boot order and we don't know the jury order. There is only wild speculation at this time, mostly based on fandom.

Are the spoilers really that bad this season ? Well, TDT, a well-known spoiler site, bailed on this season even before the first episode was televised. And this was after he put in a tonne of work to set up his spoiler/bootlist site for Micronesia. Why did he bail ? I suspect it was the severe lack of quality spoilers. Fairplay and Mary were spoiled and that was it.

And Anti has not updated his spoiler thread since Ep1 or Ep2, even to reflect any new "spoilers" out there. Why ? Because he knows that it is a lost cause and he has zero confidence in many of the spoilers.

And finally, once again, I see no sign of any spoilers slipping into the Edgic thread.

Riliss

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(03/04/08 3:10 AM)

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Yeah, people seem to be ignoring the Amanda wins spoiler this year, oddly enough.

I bet she goes far.

DevilChild255

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(03/05/08 12:40 AM)

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Riliss wrote:
Yeah, people seem to be ignoring the Amanda wins spoiler this year, oddly enough.

I bet she goes far.

wtf? What 'Amanda wins spoiler'? People in the spoilers forum can barely spoil who even makes the friggin' jury, let alone who wins!

chaperone

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(03/05/08 8:19 PM)

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midnightproblay wrote:

Did it really not occur to you that someone could be spoiled as to going far but not winning? (In reference to your highlighted post on the first page). Just because that person is spoiled to go far doesn't mean that there hasn't been updated spoilers confirming his or her placing. It would be a valid reason that people wouldn't be supporting that person.

Edgic usually has more spoilers floating around in it than any thread outside of the spoilers board. I would honestly be surprised if more than five Edgicers didn't look at spoilers. When Todd's edit matched the last two winners almost perfectly edit-wise, was it not the least bit perplexing that dozens of Edgic people chose to support Amanda instead?

Of course it did, but unless Oowatanite is just blowing smoke all the spoilers do that. So what makes Alexis or Parvati any different than Natalie? My point is that their edgic support is based on edgic. All three have spoilers saying they'll do well why don't all three have edgic support?

ETA: My first post also wasn't meant to be a definitive "thus sayeth all logic" type proof, but one logical piece of evidence that would fit into a greater whole of evidence.

gretchensucks

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(03/07/08 12:04 AM)

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A Bartholomew wrote:

People who supported Amanda last season and Parvati this season.

Exactly. People who won't even consider Parvati INV this episode (episode 5). She's no less INV than Ami was in her INV episode. Those people are clearly reading spoilers in my eyes.

Last Edited By: gretchensucks 03/07/08 2:23 AM. Edited 1 times.

gretchensucks

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(03/07/08 12:06 AM)

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Sorry double post.

Riliss

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(03/07/08 3:02 AM)

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Yeah, I can't defend Edgic anymore.

wtf? What 'Amanda wins spoiler'? People in the spoilers forum can barely spoil who even makes the friggin' jury, let alone who wins!

You prefer the Chet wins spoiler?

The Marquesan Godfather

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(03/07/08 3:26 AM)

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This is all very meta.

chaperone

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(03/07/08 4:07 AM)

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gretchensucks wrote:

A Bartholomew wrote:

People who supported Amanda last season and Parvati this season.

Exactly. People who won't even consider Parvati INV this episode (episode 5). She's no less INV than Ami was in her INV episode. Those people are clearly reading spoilers in my eyes.

Click here to read my post...I'm tired of the red so I'm going to do spoiler warnings with the + sign instead:

Spoiler [+]

1. I'm rating her UTR1.
2. I haven't read any spoilers about her winning except the people in this thread who claim she's spoiled (yet others continually say that there are no spoilers)
3. This episode edgically sucked butt for her whether she's UTR1 or INV.

ProbstFan123

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(03/07/08 2:56 PM)

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There are no winner spoilers (yet) this season, for what it's worth.

chaperone

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(03/07/08 5:01 PM)

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Glad to hear it.

Here's what I'd like to do...someone who reads all the spoilers out there...can you do a post in this thread, and not edit it, and identify that players who are spoiled as doing well from this point on, AND the players who are spoiled to not do well from this point on? Put it with a spoiler warning (by putting [ ]'s around the word spoiler and closing it with a /spoiler with brackets around it). From that, we will at the end of the season be able to compare who in the week 5 votings is chosen to do well, who isn't, and do some statistical analysis on whether edgic is spoiled.

In fact, we should do this each week, taking care to not edit the posts so nobody can claim hindsight. We can see how picks and spoilers correlate over time. This would be great to do through a whole season.

Just for the record, I'm not going to read your spoiler posts until the end of the season. I enjoy not knowing those details even though I have heard that Kathy gets injured and Natalie loses a lot of weight, other than that (oh and that Jonathan possibly leaves b/c of injury is no longer a shocker). And apparently Parvati and Alexis do well (according to all the people in this thread).

ProbstFan123

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(03/07/08 8:22 PM)

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I can give it a shot:

SPOILER WARNING -- POSSIBLE BOOT SPOILERS AHEAD -- DO NOT CLICK ON THE SPOILER TAG IF YOU DON'T WANT TO BE SPOILED

Spoiler [+]

Alexis, Parvati, Natalie, Amanda and Cirie are spoiled to go far. No specific final 3 or winner spoilers, but they're all probably in the mid-jury to late game range.

Ozzy and James both make the jury.

Ami, Chet, Jonathan, Kathy and Tracy are spoiled to be out pre-jury.

Erik is spoiled to make jury. Jason is possibly early to mid-jury.

Eliza is the first juror, according to spoilers.

That's about it.

chaperone

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(03/08/08 4:40 AM)

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Thanks, ProbstFan, I'll read your post at the end of the season...and will post this week's voting results in here on Monday so we can get a good comparision. At the very least, this will be a good experiment!

chaperone

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(03/10/08 12:41 PM)

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This weeks' voting tally, it's out of 20 voters (22 total voters, but 2 abstained as spoiled). #win1 means the number of people who voted for that person as their top winner, #win2 is people who voted for that person as the 2nd choice for a winner. #Lose are the people who said that person is edgically eliminated, which the lose% is pretty obvious (#lose votes divided by # possible lose votes), wincount is more complex. I give 3 points for a #win1, 2 points for a #win2 then divide each person's total by maximum possible winner points (3 times the number of voters). Then the winrank is just a straight up ranking.

Name	#win1	#win2	#lose	Lose%	wincount	winrank
Alexis Jones	1	1	2	10.00%	8.33%	6
Chet Welch	0	0	19	95.00%	0.00%
Erik Reichenbach	0	0	15	75.00%	0.00%
Jason Siska	0	0	5	25.00%	0.00%
Kathleen Sleckman	0	0	20	100.00%	0.00%
Natalie Bolton	0	0	20	100.00%	0.00%
Tracy Hughes-Wolf	0	5	4	20.00%	16.67%	3
Amanda Kimmel	0	0	20	100.00%	0.00%
Ami Cusack	0	0	19	95.00%	0.00%
Cirie Fields	2	2	5	25.00%	16.67%	3
Eliza Orlins	8	6	0	0.00%	60.00%	1
James Clement	0	0	16	80.00%	0.00%
Jonathan Penner	0	0	4	20.00%	0.00%
Ozzy Lusth	1	3	0	0.00%	15.00%	5
Parvati Shallow	8	3	1	5.00%	50.00%	2

Edited to remove already eliminated players...

Last Edited By: chaperone 03/10/08 12:44 PM. Edited 1 times.

pastordice

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(03/11/08 10:38 AM)

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Hey Chap,

I just wanted to hop in and give you some kudos for "forcing the issue" on this. I think a frank and open discussion on this is necessary for Edgic to have any validity as an exploratory venture. What most "drive bys" don't get about Edgic is that it has never been a dogmatic process, it's been a tightrope balance of art and science to show how editing principles can be used to foreshadow outcome. In scientific terms it's "showing your work" or "writing the proof", so what if you know the answer, how do you get there. The problem can come in the philosophical/artistic part of the endeavor if you then try to finesse the truth to fit the existing result. What many edgicians need to realize is that whether you know (we really should say think you know) who wins, goes far, goes early, or not, the process can remain unharmed if you stand fast. There is more credibility in standing against spoilers, than in trying to m-o-r-p-h edgic to fit them.

In summary, non edgicians would do well to understand that the process is more difficult to undermine than they might think, and edgicians should realize that they do neither edgic nor themselves any good by trying to work edgic backwards instead of forwards.

To be honest I think edgic is more perverted by favoritism than by some sort of weird dedication to proving a spoiler. (Both of which seem still rare enough to have little to no effect.)

Last Edited By: pastordice 03/11/08 12:17 PM. Edited 1 times.

chaperone

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(03/11/08 11:50 AM)

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Thanks, Dice. I agree on all counts, especially that favoritism is the bigger of the dangers. And I think you should drive by and give us your winner pick...

I also think sometimes outsiders read a few pages and see talk of Judith who is spoiled to do well and see no talk of Bob who is not and assume that it's all spoilers...but then when I show the data like this, Judidth is only getting support from 2 or 3 edgicers, and Bob none because both of their edits stink.

craig

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(03/15/08 8:24 PM)

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"Edgic usually has more spoilers floating around in it than any thread outside of the spoilers board."

I've come across more spoilerish stuff in Sucks fan threads this year than in Edgic. We all share the board with people who read spoilers, so it is easy to have spoilerish notions passed on at second-hand. The same way contestants can give stuff away when they do interviews.

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