Winner Analysis

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RavuRules		#2881	[-]
Posts: 1641 (05/13/08 4:54 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	That's fucking bullshit and you know it. Since this thread began, you've pretty much downplayed Tina and Richard as being bad winners because of how they were up against dumb players. No no. That's been YOUR perception, because you think so highly of them that anything short of putting your favorites at the top means I must hate them. Not my problem Nevermind the fact that you rank Yul at number 1 and find bullshit reasons as to why the other players in Cook Islands weren't dumb. Have you ever thought I might be right? A lot of Sucksters thought Parvati was a moron and she just went on to win in 1 of the most arduous and strategic seasons ever orchestrating huge power plays and finally making a female alliance happen. I ALWAYS stood by her, and realized her potential watching CI. I've won 2 survivor online games despite being a total n00b, so I sort of do have confidence in my ability to assess the strategic game. You've said you've won a past online game, but then I've seen your record and seen you state that you can't even crack the top 5 in a game. So before you throw mud and jump to conclusions maybe you should actually eat some humble pie and realize someone may actually know what they're talking about even if they disagree with you Now, Richard's case might be true because of the fact that the game was new, but you complete deny Tina of any credit, despite the fact that she remains, to this day, the only "old" woman to win Survivor. I don't deny Tina anything. I've said many times she's a great strategic player and she played a fantastic game in Outback. However, I do not give her extra credit for winning being "old". That's unnecessary demographic bias, and I don't give Sandra more credit for being Hispanic, or Aras for being a yoga instructor. If you want to blame anyone, blame the editors for not showing us anything that Tina supposedly did. I can only speak and judge from what I've seen, and based on her edit, she played a lot like Vecepia. Her best move in the entire game was securing Liz in my eyes. I can't even credit the flip against Mitchell, because the edit showed Keith doing all the dirty work, and Colby would be the pivot in that scenario You say she had a magical alliance on day 1, which so many other winners got, yet Tina had absolutely nothing in common with 3/4 of the other members of that alliance. You neglect the fact that she saw she was on the bottom of the totem pole, so she changed the game around by teaming up with Keith and Colby to take out Mitchell while still holding power over Jerri and Amber. Well I just addressed this. Look, Tina obviously had to have social skills to get herself in the 5 person alliance. It's just that it's mitigated by Kel and Keith's poor social games and being male targets. Then, when Mitchell, Amber, and Jerri decided Tina would be the 5th of their alliance, it indicates that Tina was more of a number as opposed to someone who actively made that 5 person alliance. I mean, am I wrong? Then, when the game got changed, I can't even give her special credit for figuring it out, because Jerri blatantly told everyone that at tribal council! And on top of that, based on the edit, Keith was doing the most active scrambling to turn Colby against Jerri/Mitchell/Amber, and Colby is the one who ultimately was the swing vote in that scenario. From my POV, you're trying to give older females 100% of the credit for most of the biggest moves each and every time. We've already seen your bias for the older folk and dislike for the youthful and mactors. Then you do the same with trying to credit Cirie for everything, even though the editors even gave Parvati more of the credit. Please address these issues reasonably You say that Tina was lucky for Skupin falling into the fire. Fine. I say that Parvati's game was not as flawless as you like to believe, especially since there were MORE non-strategic moments in which Parvati got lucky than Tina did, any one of which could've ended Parvati's game had they not happened. I never said Parvati's game was flawless. I also know there were plenty of times Parvati lucked out. This season has had the most evacuees and quitters ever, only paralleled by the other season of Palau. Like seriously, if you don't understand my position, I'd appreciate you not speak for me and my POV It all comes back to you having an anti-early season bias, which would explain why you seem to hate Tina so much and praise Amber for making a laughing stock of the show during the early goings. The only anti-early season bias I'd have is that each subsequent season's players have more access to what happened in the past and thus their gameplay MAY (not always of course) be better just because they have access to more history and strategy that the more naive early season players couldn't possibly have had. That's just fact, and that'd be the #1 bias of this ranking, but I feel it's reasonable and understandable, just as we know ancient Rome wouldn't ever kicked the modern United States' military no matter how much we respect it. Other than that, I feel I don't have any significant bias that is affecting my perception as I've clearly and logically laid out all the reasons why I've ranked people the way I do. It's been all up for discussion, but simply mudslinging and trying to make me look bad as part of your campaigning shortcut won't get you anywhere. All it does is kill your credibility and make you look petty And before you even try to say that bullshit about how I'm projecting on you, know this: Australia is just barely in my top 10, and in fact, after Micronesia, I think it may have dropped out. I thought it was a very bland season, and honestly, I think that the most entertaining seasons have been post-ASS. I didn't say that was your bias. I have however seen ample evidentiary support that you do seem to have a bias for the older generation players and hate on the younger folk especially mactor types Basically, you can equate my getting pissed off and calling you out on your bias to you calling people racist for thinking Cook Islands was a boring and shitty season. Keep playing the race card KP
Kitty Pryde1		#2882	[-]
Posts: 4110 (05/13/08 5:13 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oh yeah, I'm so impressed by your ability to win when the opposing tribe was filled with idlers and half the people on your tribe were completely unlikable jackasses. Second, I believe you're the one who's always pulling the race card, since no one else seems to claim that the dislike of Cook Islands and Fiji stems solely from the large number of minorities. Third, I never said Parvati was a bad player. In fact, she was one of the few players with any strategic intelligence in her season. Still, that doesn't say much for the season as a whole. Fourth, the whole "ranking based on how they would do nowadays" thing is bullshit too, because you conveniently don't factor in how well Yul would've done if his hidden immunity idol had to be played the way it was in Fiji, China, and Micronesia. Hell, we might've gotten an Edgardo blindside moment when Yul played the idol and Becky got voted off. The fact is, you have shown an extreme amount of bias through this list, and it comes as no surprise that your three least-favorite seasons are the ones without any real twists, thus relying entirely on the ability of the winner to manipulate and get to the end of the game. Do I rank Tina as the best winner of all time? No. That spot goes to Danni as being the least lucky and yet best strategist. Do I rank Tina below a girl who did absolutely nothing all season except follow every move her boyfriend made, even when they were dumb fucking moves like blindsiding Tom? No, I don't do that either. You have got to be one of the most pompous people I've met on Sucks, Ravu, and whether you want to admit it or not, this entire list seems like your little way of going against the Sucks norm and basically voicing unpopular opinions without bothering to mention that many of the facts correspond to multiple winners. You account everything to luck, except the stuff that's actually luck, which you count as a winner being able to adapt, and it bugs the shit out of me. Your high and mighty attitude reminds me of that of my ex-boyfriend, who had a similar way of writing walls of text in order to forum troll.
xoDC3xo		#2883	[-]
Posts: 54 (05/13/08 5:24 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	One thing I didn't like about Parvati's game was that she went into final three, thinking that it was a final three, with Cirie. I know that she wanted to remain loyal to her original girls, but with Ozzy she had deduced that she could never win against him, and burned that bridge there. We'll never know but she most likely would have lost a final three against Cirie, and Eliza has backed that up. The twist definitely helped her out quite a bit. If she was smart enough she would have voted out Cirie and took Natalie final three. I'm not sure how the jury would have responded to that, but I think if she owned up to the move and said that she could have never possibly won against such a likeable player than people would have respected her move.Who knows how bitter Cirie would be though? Maybe she would rally the jury against Parvati? But it seems like she'd still vote for the best player, but i'm not sure.... Anyway of course hindsight is 20/20 and i'm sure there were other factors going into that decision. Thoughts? I really wonder if Parvati thought she could have won against Cirie?
RavuRules		#2884	[-]
Posts: 1642 (05/13/08 5:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oh yeah, I'm so impressed by your ability to win when the opposing tribe was filled with idlers and half the people on your tribe were completely unlikable jackasses. And yet, those players still can outplay you as they did in Saints & Sinners and probably others ones as well. WMN alone has already got 2 2nd place finishes under her belt. And JaMalle/Angsty are neither jackasses, nor could you ever touch them with your inferior intellectual capacity. Also no mention of the other season I won with plenty of veteran including other 2 times winners, someone who's outplaced SJ in all their games, a newbie who's just finished 2nd place and then 1st in only 2 games, etc. You can only hope to reach the jury on your best day Second, I believe you're the one who's always pulling the race card, since no one else seems to claim that the dislike of Cook Islands and Fiji stems solely from the large number of minorities. There are different types of race card. In this case, you're bringing up a past issue that I didn't mention trying to use the controversial race bias issue to make me look like someone who calls everyone racist, which I haven't done. It's disgusting and low, but obviously that's what kind of person you are Fourth, the whole "ranking based on how they would do nowadays" thing is bullshit too, because you conveniently don't factor in how well Yul would've done if his hidden immunity idol had to be played the way it was in Fiji, China, and Micronesia. Uh...cause we can't genius. We have no idea how he'd play had he had a different type of idol. His whole strategy and approach to the game would likely be different as there's a huge difference between the types of idols he has Hell, we might've gotten an Edgardo blindside moment when Yul played the idol and Becky got voted off. Yul never played the idol and Becky never got voted off The fact is, you have shown an extreme amount of bias through this list, Um can you support this? Nope. As usual, it's empty and amorphous mudslinging and it comes as no surprise that your three least-favorite seasons are the ones without any real twists, thus relying entirely on the ability of the winner to manipulate and get to the end of the game. That's where we disagree. With your poor understanding of the game, you don't realize that getting to the end in a season with no twists is NOT just relying entirely on the abilities of the winner. It's the initial luck factors + those abilities. So if you got dealt a crap hand at the start, you get majorly screwed, whereas twists give different people more opportunities to increase or decrease their luck within the season. I appreciate twists in the sense that it allows us to see who can adapt their game, but I don't really favor a season with more twists than less. Anyways, which seasons I like isn't what this thread is about but thanks for sharing Do I rank Tina as the best winner of all time? No. That spot goes to Danni as being the least lucky and yet best strategist. Do I rank Tina below a girl who did absolutely nothing all season except follow every move her boyfriend made, even when they were dumb fucking moves like blindsiding Tom? No, I don't do that either. What's your point? You don't have to defend yourself to me. If you think Tina deserves to be rated higher, give me a logical case why and explain it through gameplay, not ranting about biases you think I may have and crap like that. I've laid down the gauntlet in terms of why Tina is ranked lower than all the other winners and you've avoided addressing them. Until then, how can I possibly reconsider changing her rank? You have got to be one of the most pompous people I've met on Sucks, Ravu, and whether you want to admit it or not, this entire list seems like your little way of going against the Sucks norm and basically voicing unpopular opinions without bothering to mention that many of the facts correspond to multiple winners. Okay I'll mention it: Many of the facts correspond to multiple winners. Happy? No, of course you're not. I'm only pompous to people who are pompous with me. If you start acting condescending, being insulting, etc. then you have to expect people to defend themselves and not really have any real respect for you. I was nothing but nice to you when you first joined this thread encouraging you to voice your opinion even when we disagreed. Then you got all condescending and bitchy, thinking I was mocking you for calling you your goddamm Sucks name Kitty and then you really showed your true colors during the whole CI debates. So I mean, spare me KP. You should practice what you preach You account everything to luck, except the stuff that's actually luck, which you count as a winner being able to adapt, and it bugs the shit out of me. Well way to be totally vague without concrete examples. If anything, you're the one who's entirely selective and inconsistent about who gets lucky and who used skill during the course of a game Your high and mighty attitude reminds me of that of my ex-boyfriend, who had a similar way of writing walls of text in order to forum troll. kthx for sharing
OnlyMatthew		#2885	[-]
Posts: 1116 (05/13/08 6:03 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	one day when I feel like reading, I'm going to ensue an argument with you, RR :O
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2886	[-]
Posts: 3549 (05/13/08 6:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'd love to argue with Ravu too, because obviously I think I'm right, but I'm not usually as prepared as he is in speaking my thoughts out
Quiddity		#2887	[-]
Posts: 2503 (05/13/08 6:43 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	TheLurkerSpeaks wrote: Vee's winning F4 immunity was hardly luck - she had been counting on it being Fallen Comrades since the beginning of the game and had used her luxury item (a journal) to take notes. That's called preparation. The producers responded by mothballing Fallen Comrades (which was already being considered due to the S3 screw up) and a move away from luxury items. The reason Fallen Comrades was removed forever was due to the screw up in Africa. Why was it in Marquesas then? Why that's easy. Marquesas was filmed before the Africa finale aired, which is when the Africa screw-up was revealed. Thats why it dissappeared after Marquesas. There never was any 'considering of removing it' during the filming of Marquesas. I don't think Danni deserves a high ranking, as she made some pretty bad errors pre-merge, resulting in her not having the numbers post-merge. I can agree on Chris, though. That's utter nonsense. Danni was in the minority post merge for a very obvious reason that had absolutely nothing to do with her: the tribal switch switched her from a tribe up by 1 to a tribe down by 1. That's a 2 immunity challenge swing. Danni won just as many immunities as Queen Stephenie, Rafe, Lydia and Jamie, who had the majority at the merge. Danni was in no way responsible for her not having the majority at the merge; there's no blame one could aim towards Danni for Judd & Cindy sticking with S/R/L/J (which was largely due to their love for Stephenie), and even if she had voted to keep Blake, absolute best case scenario that results from that is a tie at the merge, and only if she and her pals are able to get Margaret immunity.
SwineForkbeard		#2888	[-]
Posts: 1522 (05/13/08 7:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	For the first eight or so episodes, I would have agreed with Kitty Pryde that Parvati's success in the game was largely, even spookily, due to the rotten luck of anybody who had thought of targeting her. While that still might be true, I think she amply proved that her win was not a fluke by the way she used Natalie and Alexis, which not only neutralized the fans, but netted her their jury votes as well. I was hoping she wouldn't win because I hated to see the pervs who beat off to her and made it impossible to root for her get their way, but I have to admit she played a good game. I would like to take issue with two points Ravu Rules made in comparing Parvati to Tina, and have documentation to support my rebuttal. 1) "Rupert was a neutral party who was open to alligning with anybody on Saboga." - Apparently not, according to Dalton Ross, who was on location the first fews days in Panama and interviewed the cast: Little does Tina know that just a few days ago Rupert was already plotting ways to get rid of her. ''I understand the psyche of anger,'' he explains. ''With Tina, you might be able to say, 'Tina's already won once. She voted you out already. Do you really want to keep her in this game?''' Keep in mind that "just a few days ago" = before the game even started. It could be that Rupert was just thinking out loud before the game and wasn't necessarily saying that targeting Tina would be his initial strategy, but that doesn't sound like a neutral party to me. 2) "Parvati was targeted because of her prior reputation, just like Tina." - That may be what the editing would suggest, but when Fairplay posted in Sucks a few months ago, he remembered it differently: parvati flirted with the fans at the first challenge. that is why she was our first pick to send home. I don't think the "prior reputation" defense really applies to Parvati, because even Jonathan said in his pregame videos that he was open to the idea of working with Parvati and Ozzy, so I don't think their Cook Islands rivalry is what turned him against her. The evidence suggests he didn't start targeting her until after the game started, which would support what Fairplay said.
mfrimley		#2889	[-]
Posts: 692 (05/13/08 8:28 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	LMAO at Kitty Pryde coming unglued. When will people learn not to let Ravu get under their skin?
Kitty Pryde1		#2890	[-]
Posts: 4114 (05/13/08 9:23 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	COMING unglued?! Bitch, I'm so crazy that even Kathy would be stayin' the fuck away from me. insert Whatevia here
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2891	[-]
Posts: 3554 (05/14/08 7:09 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Now that I have had time to think about it, I'm bumping Parvati up the list 1.Brian 2.Richard,Tina,Tom,Yul,Earl 7.Aras 8.Parvati 9.Chris 10.Jenna 11.Danni 12.Vecepia 13.Todd 14.Sandra 15.Ethan 16.Amber What puts her in 8th place is both Jonathans injury, which she couldn't have planned for and if he had stayed,things would have been drastically different. That,as well as expecting a f3. She stayed loyal to two people who very well could have beat her. Granted,Amanda is horrible at jury management and Cirie only relied on her reputation,so Parvati could of talked her way out of it, but its still up in the air.Also, many of the Dabu members did things not in their best interest, such as Natalie not joining Cirie at f4, or Ozzy not expecting a reorginization of alliegences with such a big alliance at hand
RavuRules		#2892	[-]
Posts: 1643 (05/14/08 12:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	One thing I didn't like about Parvati's game was that she went into final three, thinking that it was a final three, with Cirie. I know that she wanted to remain loyal to her original girls, but with Ozzy she had deduced that she could never win against him, and burned that bridge there. We'll never know but she most likely would have lost a final three against Cirie, and Eliza has backed that up. The twist definitely helped her out quite a bit. If she was smart enough she would have voted out Cirie and took Natalie final three. I'm not sure how the jury would have responded to that, but I think if she owned up to the move and said that she could have never possibly won against such a likeable player than people would have respected her move.Who knows how bitter Cirie would be though? Maybe she would rally the jury against Parvati? But it seems like she'd still vote for the best player, but i'm not sure.... Anyway of course hindsight is 20/20 and i'm sure there were other factors going into that decision. Thoughts? I really wonder if Parvati thought she could have won against Cirie? Valid criticism. I've wondered about this myself. It's been confirmed that Cirie would likely have won in the event of a F3. At the least, Cirie and Amanda would be the top voting getters I believe
SwineForkbeard		#2893	[-]
Posts: 1525 (05/14/08 12:59 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I usually try to avoid that kind of speculation unless there are hard facts to back it up, since it's often hard to predict the outcome of 7/8/9 separate, independent decisions from people with varying agendas. One person cannot speak for the jury, and Eliza could just be projecting her own point of view onto the others. It brings to mind the comment from James, "We all know Amanda has this in the bag," which the editors unwisely chose to air and spoiled the ending.
Quiddity		#2894	[-]
Posts: 2512 (05/14/08 3:47 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I wouldn't necessarily say that. I thought both time going into the F3/F2 that Amanda would win it, prior to hearing her completely tank it against the jury (should have known better the second time, I guess. :P) Considering players viewed her as a jury threat and that's why they tried to vote her out, I don't see how they couldn't have shown it.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2895	[-]
Posts: 3564 (05/14/08 5:13 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SwineForkbeard wrote: I usually try to avoid that kind of speculation unless there are hard facts to back it up, since it's often hard to predict the outcome of 7/8/9 separate, independent decisions from people with varying agendas. One person cannot speak for the jury, and Eliza could just be projecting her own point of view onto the others. It brings to mind the comment from James, "We all know Amanda has this in the bag," which the editors unwisely chose to air and spoiled the ending. Exactly,this has happened before.Rudy said that nobody would vote for Rich prior to him being voted out. Perhaps the Rotu 4 had no intention of voting for Vecepia prior to Nelehs jury performance. Theres a highly reasonable chance that Cirie would of lost to Aras, and so on. Elizas word isnt totally reliable
RavuRules		#2896	[-]
Posts: 1644 (05/14/08 5:45 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	We definitely don't know for sure. However, with the post-game interviews it does seem like the votes are: Parvati - Natalie Cirie - Alexis, Eliza Amanda - Ozzy, James So Jason and Erik's votes would decide the outcome. Erik voted for Amanda, but I could also see him voting for Cirie had he had her as a 3rd option. Same with Jason possibly voting for her over Parvati. Tough call and we'll never know. Either way though, it leaves doubt as to the effectiveness of Parvati's F3 strategy
RavuRules		#2897	[-]
Posts: 1645 (05/14/08 5:53 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I would like to take issue with two points Ravu Rules made in comparing Parvati to Tina, and have documentation to support my rebuttal. 1) "Rupert was a neutral party who was open to alligning with anybody on Saboga." - Apparently not, according to Dalton Ross, who was on location the first fews days in Panama and interviewed the cast: Little does Tina know that just a few days ago Rupert was already plotting ways to get rid of her. ''I understand the psyche of anger,'' he explains. ''With Tina, you might be able to say, 'Tina's already won once. She voted you out already. Do you really want to keep her in this game?''' Keep in mind that "just a few days ago" = before the game even started. It could be that Rupert was just thinking out loud before the game and wasn't necessarily saying that targeting Tina would be his initial strategy, but that doesn't sound like a neutral party to me. To address your comments Swine, by "neutral" I didn't mean someone who was 100% neutral. I don't think anyone ever is. People lean towards 1 person or another based on whatever biases they have. Obviously, based on results, Rupert had to have leaned towards Jenna/Jerri against Tina/Ethan, most likely due to reputation bias. However, for all practical purposes, he was "neutral" in that getting rid of Tina wasn't like his life mission or something. It's kind of like how JFP could be swayed to side with the JAYE alliance or something. He wasn't really on the level of like Jenna's witch-hunt and it's safe to assume Jerri felt somewhat threatened by Tina given their Outback and post-game relationship. That's all I meant by that 2) "Parvati was targeted because of her prior reputation, just like Tina." - That may be what the editing would suggest, but when Fairplay posted in Sucks a few months ago, he remembered it differently: parvati flirted with the fans at the first challenge. that is why she was our first pick to send home. I don't think the "prior reputation" defense really applies to Parvati, because even Jonathan said in his pregame videos that he was open to the idea of working with Parvati and Ozzy, so I don't think their Cook Islands rivalry is what turned him against her. The evidence suggests he didn't start targeting her until after the game started, which would support what Fairplay said. I'm going by what the players said themselves. In post-game interviews I believe it was Jonathan himself who flat out said that he targeted Parvati for her incredible social game, most notably the way she had completely wrapped James around her finger despite just meeting him on the island like everybody else and of course Jonathan's history with her. JFP may have very well believed that was the reason why JAYE was targeting her and that might have been his personal reason. But it's fair to say Jonathan was the #1 source of Parvati's problems, despite both of them being alright with each other supposedly so I'm going with his testimony
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2898	[-]
Posts: 329 (05/14/08 5:55 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Also, Erik claimed that he probably would've voted for Cirie if it was an F3, and it may have been a sweep (I doubt the sweep, though). And yes, RR, I am mainly talking about the Blake move, and whether or not she regained control, she survived to the end partially due to an IC win and IMO Rafe's F3 mistake. I don't rank Danni too high because of that particular error, which I feel is too major to overlook.
RavuRules		#2899	[-]
Posts: 1646 (05/14/08 6:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Also, Erik claimed that he probably would've voted for Cirie if it was an F3, and it may have been a sweep (I doubt the sweep, though). Yeah, I think I read that too. I will have to look over that stuff to make sure, but thanks for the input And yes, RR, I am mainly talking about the Blake move, and whether or not she regained control, she survived to the end partially due to an IC win and IMO Rafe's F3 mistake. I don't rank Danni too high because of that particular error, which I feel is too major to overlook. That is definitely something I've noted. Basically all the other winners have benefited from some sort of blunder by their opponents too though. Just because the blunder happens at the end doesn't necessarily make it more lucky than people who screwed up at the start of a game which paved the way for the future winner. Is there anyone who you think Danni should be ranked below and why?
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2900	[-]
Posts: 3566 (05/14/08 6:13 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The rwason I rank Danni relativly low is partly due to Rafe not voting her out the f4.There was no proper excuse for this and no reason why he should of kept Danni.I don't exactly uy the arguement that she guilted him into it, what jury votes would he lose?

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