Winner Analysis

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panurge46		#2961	[-]
Posts: 1013 (05/15/08 6:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hi Ravu, Have you updated your rankings? I've read a few pages and saw some interesting discussions and, unfortunately some re-hashed discussions going 'round n 'round. I'm disappointed that you still refuse the reports from the Outback players that I brought. Maybe Eliza will run into some of them and they could come over and convince you that Tina was the one applying the strategy. You'd be able to appreciate Outback a little more. Isn't that what Survivor fans want? Having a season to enjoy? Here's a few thoughts on ranking Parvati: - Malakal was a tribe divided from the start. That's a difficult situation to overcome, especially if you are the targeted player. Eliza can attest to that. Some of the events that saved Parvati in the beginning were due to her own actions (getting the couples' alliance and Cirie on her side) some were fortuitous (JFP quitting and the Airai tribe being equally divided) Was she doomed if JFP had stayed? Possibly but it's also possible JFP wanted to look important in his interviews. He had to know Parvati was going deeper in the game than Eliza so saying he would have voted out Parvati creates a bigger impact. For the first segment of the game, Parvati was in difficulty in a divided tribe but, by the end of episode #3, she had the situation well in hand. Those facts tell us it's a good start, whether we get bogged down in weighing luck factors or not. - The switch up was dangerous. It always is. Parvati didn't have the numbers anymore. The Airai Faves were divided 2-2, the Fans were 2-1-1. Kathy seems to think Jason would have been the first vote. She was on Jonathan's side but loved James. Alexis was leaning towards Penner while Nat was on Parvati's side. I think that the Faves would have been smart enough to seize the opportunity to boot Jason first but who knows for sure. What matters is what happened: Facing a tribe switch that put her in an insecure position, she reached the merge as the player with the most control. Again, some of the events weren't due to her actions but Parvati deserves at least a small part of the credit for Airai becoming the "good tribe". As Kathy said: "She was extremely friendly." That had to help with team spirit and, therefore, with the challenge wins. - Post-merge, the women's alliance was amazing and that alliance was Parvati's creation. Cirie, Amanda and Nat deserve a lot of credit and certainly Cirie's a "what-if" winner, but still, the Faves don't make up the F3 if Parvati didn't have Nat and Lexie locked up. Of course, just as I knock Yul for having the benefit of the players not knowing it was a F3, we can certainly question Parvati's end-game strategy. Does she win a F3? All I know is she had a chance to get Nat, Alexis and Jason's votes and that could have been enough. Does Yul beat Ozzy in an F3 challenge? I don't think so but I don't know. The fact remains, Micronesia was a F2 as Survivor should always be and Parvati won. All in all, I'd rate Parvati somewhere around 6th place, an echelon behind Tina and the other expert winners. I guess that would place her just ahead of Yul!
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2962	[-]
Posts: 342 (05/15/08 6:21 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: Quiddity wrote: Dr.WH2.0, you're deluding yourself if you think Danni had nothing to do with Rafe's decision. The biggest reason Rafe kept Danni around at F4 was because he was insecure in his position at F3 and thought that Danni would bring him to F2. And he thought that because Danni repeatedly told him she'd bring him to F2, even if she'd lose to him. To act like Danni had absolutely nothing to do with that decision is pure absurdity. Rafe played a tremendous game up to F5, one of the best we've ever seen. He successfully turned America's sweetheart Stephenie intro ultra goat and would arguably have beat her 7-0. So don't act like Rafe is some complete moron that handed Danni her win on a silver platter. Rafe was an extremely good player. But Danni was a better one, and beat him at his own game. Where Rafe manipulated Stephenie into doing his bidding, even though it was not in her own best interest, Danni did the exact same thing to Rafe. She did a tremendous job and absolutely deserves to be ranked among the best winners in this game. I'm sure your buddy Zach would agree! That is, if he's alive after the tremendous failure of DolphinCrash. :P Haha,you had to throw in that Zach reference huh? Ive finally admited that his f5 move was a mistake, but everything else he did was the right move. Anyway,I agree with you that Danni had something to do with the decision, but that decision was illogical.Who cares if she promised him a f2 deal? Stephenie would never had betrayed him. I can't think of anything more illogical then what Rafe did in the game.He had no fear of losing jury votes. And I agree Ravu! But Rafe did make one of the worst moves ever.Worse then Eriks,worse then Twatwaffles Agree with the fact that Rafe made an bad move based on emotion worse than Lex, but I gotta disagree with Erik. Erik pretty much forked over a guaranteed F2 berth. Does anyone honestly feel like he'd have lost either of those two immunity challenges? Both were made for him.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2963	[-]
Posts: 3577 (05/15/08 6:32 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well,ok.I acan agree to that. I was saying that Rafe made a huge blunder that wasn't totally of Dannis doing, stupid is as stupid does like they say
Quiddity		#2964	[-]
Posts: 2523 (05/15/08 7:56 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Haha,you had to throw in that Zach reference huh? Ive finally admited that his f5 move was a mistake, but everything else he did was the right move. Finally! Joy! Everything else though? I don't know about that. He was smart in forming an early alliance. Although the Mrs. Robinson alliance would go down in history as the worst BB alliance ever if the Jen-Amanda-Natalie-Matt-Alex-Parker one hadn't flopped even worse this season. Zach coasted through most of the game because he was completely pathetic and everyone knew they could take him out further down the line. He did okay with his F6 HOH reign, I guess. His F4 HOH reign was incredibly dopey, he couldn't comprehend that the F4 noms were meaningless and had this ridiculous speech to Dick & Daniele that accomplished absolutely nothing but make them really pissed off at him and make him look really foolish. Anyway,I agree with you that Danni had something to do with the decision, but that decision was illogical.Who cares if she promised him a f2 deal? Stephenie would never had betrayed him. I can't think of anything more illogical then what Rafe did in the game.He had no fear of losing jury votes. Ah ha! so you agree that she had a part in it. Glad to hear that. Rafe's move certainly was insanely dumb. But a big reason it happened was because of Danni. If she sits around doing nothing, what happened doesn't happen. So that's what seperates that situation with me from a stupid move made where the person who benefitted had absolutely nothing to do with it. It all falls back to the argument I already made. If we're going to criticize Danni's victory for Rafe's mistake, then we have to apply the exact same standard to all the winners who benefitted from their opponent's mistakes. Some, like Tom with Ian, played a part in the mistake happenening. Others like Rich had no part whatsoever in why their opponents made such stupid moves. And then it essentially just becomes who had the smartest opponents, wow, they're the best, regardless of how they played. And I agree Ravu! But Rafe did make one of the worst moves ever.Worse then Eriks,worse then Twatwaffles Worse than Erik's? No way. Rafe permitted a much stronger opponent and pretty much impossible to beat jury threat to stay past the F4 eviction. But all he needed to win the game was for him or Stephenie to win the immunity challenge. 2/3 odds. Erik gave away immunity knowing full well that the four other women there wanted him out immediately and that blindside after blindside had been happening. Dumber than Lex's move? Yes. Rafe's decision would probably go 4th all time with me, behind Colby, Ian and our new King, Erik.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2965	[-]
Posts: 3581 (05/15/08 8:17 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I remember the first week of BB8 and how lousy Zach was interpreting what was going on,but I give him benifit of the doubt on much of this.Nich for instance was an awful player. So I guess you could say he was very lucky,nothing wrong with that.Hes never seen BB before,and how was he to "get in the group" when he ostracized himself week 1? The reason I defend him is because he lobbied hard for Dani to go at the final 7, which is a common sense move but a very smart one for Zach.Him and Dick win all the HOHs from then on and Zach wins the jury vote.But thus,it was rigged. At f4,I agree that noms are meaningless, but trying to secure Jamekas vote is only common sense.Maybe he cared too much about securing Jamekas,and thus,the rest of LNCs vote. Thats my hypothesis as to why he ejected Eric at f5. Oh no,I'm not saying Danni should of been a doormat.I give her credit for totally making Gary her stooge at the swap. What I'm saying is that Rafes logic makes so little sense,is so absurd and stupid that either Danni is a Jedi, or Rafe is a dumbfuck.You could compare it to Tom/Ian, but Rafe gave an alternative reason for not booting her at f4.He said she was so malnourished that she couldn't possibly be a threat. It could e Rafe saving face, but I'm not entirely convinved it was entirly of Dannis doing. And you can't compare it to stupid players from other seasons because those moves were more indirect. Pagong had no clue what they were getting into. Twatwaffle was banking on his prior friendships when he should of thought about stratagy.Rafe seemed to make a completly idiotic decision with little input from anyone.I could be wrong. And I agree, saying it was worse then Eriks move was a little hasty
RavuRules		#2966	[-]
Posts: 1651 (05/15/08 8:58 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Have you updated your rankings? Not yet. I haven't even gotten around to studying China in-depth like the other seasons. I have my instincts of course, but I'll probably refrain from updating the rankings until I feel confident with my analysis I'm disappointed that you still refuse the reports from the Outback players that I brought. While I read the reports, the main issue I have with completely taking them at face value was the fact that the individuals were Varner and Mike who weren't even on Tina's original tribe nor were they really present for the merge. They also demonstrated rudimentary strategic abilities. Overall, the discrepency between the TV edit, those 2 reports, public opinion, and Tina's all-stars are quite large. Given the massive support and biases for the early seasons, and my not being affected by that, I don't know if we'll ever come to a consensus on her Maybe Eliza will run into some of them and they could come over and convince you that Tina was the one applying the strategy. I would LOVE that! You'd be able to appreciate Outback a little more. Isn't that what Survivor fans want? Having a season to enjoy? Yes and yes. Although we all know some "fans" would actually like to bitch about some seasons rather than enjoy them Basically agreed with everything you said except for a couple things (not that they're new topics): Of course, just as I knock Yul for having the benefit of the players not knowing it was a F3, we can certainly question Parvati's end-game strategy. I don't know if I'd say we should "knock" them necessarily, although it's definitely a luck factor to note. The problem is if we do that, we must do it for all the winners. Knocking them for their season's "change" in format presupposes a status quo which is a bias I'm not particularly interested in. For instance, if we knock Parvati for the fact that F3 changed to F2 and the players' incorrect assumptions benefited Parvati which she couldn't have planned ahead for, then similarly past winners were "lucky" that their gaming chances weren't altered by similar end-game twists that changed the finale landscape on a dime. That's not to say we ignore the possibility that Parvati wasn't planning properly for the end-game. But if you apply changes in finale twists as luck factors then you must apply it to each and every situation. In terms of Yul, the change from F2 to F3's effect on his winning is even more vague. Whereas, we kind of know what impact F3 to F2 had on Parvati's game, it's more up in the air with Yul, given that his winning chances would be contingent on whatever the 3rd challenge is. You wouldn't necessarily "knock" him for the twist, and simply assume the worst scenario. Naturally, any change to an already winning game will be assumed as "worse". It's not really something we can accurately speculate on with any real certainty Does she win a F3? All I know is she had a chance to get Nat, Alexis and Jason's votes and that could have been enough. As Swine said, it's speculation. I think we can somewhat look to post-game interviews for answers like the fact that Alexis said she would've wanted Cirie to win. But at the end of the day, we don't really know what would've happened in real time, so we take it with a grain of salt Does Yul beat Ozzy in an F3 challenge? I don't think so but I don't know. The fact remains, Micronesia was a F2 as Survivor should always be and Parvati won. I agree with the 1st statement but not the 2nd. I'm not a fan of "should always be". I did sort of enjoy how F2 became the new F3 twist with some bitter fans . In the end, some people just don't like change versus any real complaint with a specific twist All in all, I'd rate Parvati somewhere around 6th place, an echelon behind Tina and the other expert winners. I guess that would place her just ahead of Yul! Your bait doesn't work as effectively on me anymore now that I've got your Modus Operandi
SwineForkbeard		#2967	[-]
Posts: 1527 (05/16/08 4:33 PM) I need a hobby Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	panurge46 wrote: Was she doomed if JFP had stayed? Possibly but it's also possible JFP wanted to look important in his interviews. He had to know Parvati was going deeper in the game than Eliza so saying he would have voted out Parvati creates a bigger impact. I seriously doubt he cares enough about what sucksters think to make things up about what happened, but even if he would, I think what he said makes the most sense, because he probably wouldn't have had any other logical options anyway. Eliza has confirmed that Parvati would otherwise have been voted out, and if Cirie was part of Jonathan's alliance at that point, Fairplay's only options were to either vote with them or force a tie and hope he didn't have to pick a rock. What matters is what happened: Facing a tribe switch that put her in an insecure position, she reached the merge as the player with the most control. Again, some of the events weren't due to her actions but Parvati deserves at least a small part of the credit for Airai becoming the "good tribe". As Kathy said: "She was extremely friendly." That had to help with team spirit and, therefore, with the challenge wins That's a pretty nebulous thing to give somebody credit for. Strictly speaking, Parvati contributed little to Airai's immunity streak. And if you're going to credit her for unquantifiable factors like "team spirit" it's worth remembering that Eliza probably contributed more to those immunity wins than anybody else, and she called Parvati a "mean person" who made fun of her. Also, Parvati herself attributed Eliza and Jason's determination to win the challenge that she sat out in episode 8 to desperation, saying that they knew they were in a bad position. It sounded like Airai had an obvious pecking order, and was hardly a stereotypical happy tribe where everybody felt included.
RavuRules		#2968	[-]
Posts: 1654 (05/16/08 5:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hey Dr. Will. Some comments on things you said to Quiddity: 2.Pagong was led by two people who were strictly anti stratagy(Gretchen and Greg), due to the fact that they were unaware of the nature of the game oer were uninterested in playing it, is it Richards fault for taking advantage of that? It was a great strategy on his part. Unfortunately for his ranking, it's an easy lesson to re-apply and emulate, so once the "alliance" template became notorious, just about anyone could use it to great effect. He gets lots of credit for coming up with it (along with Kelly/Sue who don't get due credit for the alliance idea) but in my ranking, I wouldn't give him extra respect credit, because the fact of the matter is, if he were to be put up against the modern day competitors, his capabilities aren't as remarkable as they were back in the day as we saw how he floundered in ASS (albeit with some reputation bad luck added on) You can't compare it to Danni/Rafe was because Rafes decision came from a bizarre source(He said he kept Danni over Lydia was because Danni was malnounished and weak. And Lydia wasn't? No matter what, Danni will tend to preform better then Lydia). Dannis play at f6 had nothing to do with her being kept or not. Rafe's judgment and decision was indeed poor and costly. I would disagree that Danni had nothing to do with her being kept around though. She was a solid social player and played Kingmaker to Rafe well so it got her in a position to capitalize on luck and opportunity when it did. Does that require extraordinary abilities? Not really. It's still solid UTR gameplay though and it's not like a lot of the other winners have demonstrated especially unique abilities either And for the record,Sean was voting alphabetically because most Pagong memers names start the alphabet,so it wasn't random. Also, he was quite loyal to Richard, so we can up Richards social game that much more Hatch definitely gets credit for social game with Sean. Sean started off not really caring for Hatch based on the TV edit. By the end of the game, Sean was solidly in Hatch's corner. Of course, Hatch was largely keeping him around because he was attracted to him I believe (from what SK mentioned?), so that might be partly lucky that it worked out for him like it did. Definitely the plus side for him being the "leader" or overt game controller of the Tagi alliance though 4.Tina is a master manipulator,I'm not so sure about Danni. Kucha made lots of dumb moves, but not all of them have to do with Tina.For instance, did they really think Colby had prior votes before the merge? I would rank Tina above Danni in stratagy because of reasons already documented What reasons? Everyone simply calls her a master manipulator without providing how she manipulated. The extent of her manipulation seemed to be with Colby, Keith, and Liz. With Elisabeth though, I think it was just as much as Liz's proactive infiltration strategy and her using Tina as it was Tina using her. So I'd chalk that up to solid social gameplay as opposed to Tina somehow mind-controlling her. Colby however, is a different story. She may indeed have truly manipulated him given that his game focus seemed to tank by the end of the game. If we give him the benefit of the doubt like colleenlover does, then he may he conscious decision to lose. I personally don't see that as the case. I think he just suffered from underestimating his opponent--a lack of history and the realization that a female and UTR player could win the game and earn the majority of a jury's respect over a respected alpha male like himself. Keith being in Tina's pocket definitely seemed to be more the result of his obsession with destroying Jerri as he plainly told the camera. I'm sure she fed the fires of hatred, but I didn't see some sort of manipulative mastery from her based on the TV edit. Now, had Tina been able to pull off similar magic in ASS with neutrals Rupert and Rudy, then I could easily see the whole Benedict Tina angle. However, that obviously didn't happen 7.The raros voted for Yul due to Nates dumbass decision making skills and the fact that Adam figured that a unified tribe thats wrong is better then an ununified tribe.Also,Jonathan should of sided with the Raros. It would remove the HII,and make both factions dependent on his vote. The latter was due to Yul,but not the former. I guess you could compare it to Dannis play, but alot of other factors went into Yuls win,and I rank him higher The decision to target Yul wasn't dumb in and of itself. It ended up being "bad" for certain individuals due to the result. However, the rest of the options weren't particularly appealing and carried their own set of risks as well. If Yul didn't have the idol for instance, then not voting for him really would be stupid. Even with the idol, the reason why it was "dumb" to target Yul was because of his social connection to a self-interested strategic Jonathan. So if a mistake was made, it was having kept Jonathan around in the first place as well as Candice's decision to mutiny in the 1st place 10.Vecepia is a very good player, but she had little to do with Rotus demise. It was due to their own arrogance They really weren't THAT arrogant if you watch the video. It probably just seemed arrogant, because Neleh and Paschal finally smelled the roses and woke up. Vecepia definitely had help, as Sean and eventually Kathy were doing most of the politicking and begging to Neleh and Paschal to get their heads prior to the flip. I'd say the biggest luck factor though was the timing of the chop challenge which really sparked N and P's awareness that made them rethink their alliance infiltration in a way that probably wouldn't have occurred otherwise 12.Terry was a complete moron anyway(). He wasn't a moron. But I'd agree strategy wasn't his forte . I don't think too many people are "morons" 14.The stupidity of some players might be equated to Parvatis manipulation of them Exactly. It's not so much that people are stupid. It's when other players make them look stupid. It's more of a symbolic image than actually indicating true intelligence though. Even very smart individuals can be blindsided given the right circumstances. Even with like Jason or Erik's naivety, they were probably more aware competitors than the majority of the Borneo castaways were I think Danni is an otherwise supurb player, but Rafe was a huge idiot "Idiot" is a strong word my friend
SwineForkbeard		#2969	[-]
Posts: 1528 (05/16/08 5:28 PM) I need a hobby Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	And panurge, if you're looking for hearsay evidence in Tina's favor, try digging up Amber's Stuff interview from 2001. She still seemed bitter over what took place, and in attempting to denigrate Tina, actually complimented her game. She agreed with the conventional wisdom here that there was far more to Tina than what was shown on TV, that she may have seemed like a sweet, lovable Southern hausfrau, but was actually the most conniving person out there.
Thailandsurvivor		#2970	[-]
Posts: 735 (05/16/08 5:37 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I know that I'm still one of the few who doesn't understand this, but why does Rafe always get so much slack around here? At the final 4, it seemed obvious to get rid of Lydia because it looked like Steph would take her to the end as a goat. She had been willing to backstab every other ally, why wouldn't she backstab him? With Danni in the final 3, he had a 100% chance of going to the finals (or thought so, in reality he had a 67% other than a 50%). The move at the end on his part has always looked like he tried to do some reverse pschology on her because he was second guessing his decision to get rid of Lydia (which understandly backfired even though I still think it was the better move for him. He doesn't do that and Lydia is the worst winner in history.) And I want to hear some other response besides he didn't make. I understood that, but he put himself in a position where he had himself and Steph both working together win the final challenge instead of him HAVING to win to make the finals.
RavuRules		#2971	[-]
Posts: 1655 (05/16/08 5:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	And panurge, if you're looking for hearsay evidence in Tina's favor, try digging up Amber's Stuff interview from 2001. She still seemed bitter over what took place, and in attempting to denigrate Tina, actually complimented her game. She agreed with the conventional wisdom here that there was far more to Tina than what was shown on TV, that she may have seemed like a sweet, lovable Southern hausfrau, but was actually the most conniving person out there. Well we did see Amber mocking Tina to Jerri at the merge for being ultra sweet and talkative to Liz and them. Obviously she wanted Colby to win for using her and at least throwing her a pity vote . I'm sure Tina is sweet, but it doesn't mean she isn't mature, experienced, conniving, and have been around the block
RavuRules		#2972	[-]
Posts: 1656 (05/16/08 5:41 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I know that I'm still one of the few who doesn't understand this, but why does Rafe always get so much slack around here? At the final 4, it seemed obvious to get rid of Lydia because it looked like Steph would take her to the end as a goat. She had been willing to backstab every other ally, why wouldn't she backstab him? With Danni in the final 3, he had a 100% chance of going to the finals (or thought so, in reality he had a 67% other than a 50%). The move at the end on his part has always looked like he tried to do some reverse pschology on her because he was second guessing his decision to get rid of Lydia (which understandly backfired even though I still think it was the better move for him. He doesn't do that and Lydia is the worst winner in history.) And I want to hear some other response besides he didn't make. I understood that, but he put himself in a position where he had himself and Steph both working together win the final challenge instead of him HAVING to win to make the finals. I didn't understand it either, but our resident Survivor superfan SK has mentioned that Rafe used to be a Suckster or something and that they still keep in touch. According to him, they've talked and Rafe explained that Danni had been dreadfully sick and weak in the days leading up to the final challenge. So apparently, Stephenie and Rafe miscalculated and actually thought she'd be lesser competition than Lydia . Not totally excusable but at least it doesn't seem as stupid if we're to believe that
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2973	[-]
Posts: 3602 (05/16/08 8:37 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Comments to Ravu Af for Rich, I rank him near the top not because of his reputation, but I think most people(including me when I first saw it) had an,dare I say "innaccurate" view of the game? It doesn't take a genius to take advantage of an opportunity with under excellent conditions, but because he is a "modern player" by your standards.He understands game "theory",if it can be called that. As you said, he suffered from incredibly bad luck on All Stars, so one may think,hes as not as good of a player as Will Kirby,who was under similar circumstances on BB. But I say that the conditions that Rich was under was different.He was with rather puritanical players who solidly believed in maintaining the original alliance and "booting threats" as soon as possible. If you watch Rich in Borneo,he doesn't necessarily go after "threats"(well,everyone is ultimatly a threat, but I mean the traditional image of one, either a physical powerhouse or a Jerri type who is a loose end), but he made sound,rational decisions. Gretchen would started "playing" before Greg did, because he is more of an idealist.So at final 9 Gretchen theoretically could have predicted Seans alphabet stratagy and forced a tie. Greg won immunity at f10.If he hadn't,they said he would of left, but do we know for sure? He had better connections with Greg and may have kept him. He also acted on Rudys suggestion on voting with Sean at f8 to boot Jenna. Its arguable, but Gervase was less likely to start a coup, because Kelly viewed him as a threat,as opposed to Jenna. Its possible that at f7,Jenna,Colleen and Kelly would of tried to throw a coup with Seans help(which is doomed to failure because Sean was so tight with Rich, but the girls didn't know that).He also adjusted his plan to boot Kelly at f6.When she won ic, at f4 he very well may have left.Thanks to his brute strength,which is a plus,he could win the tiebreaker over Sue. I think in the right environment,anyone can lose, and anyone might look "overrated" in such a naive group like Borneos.But he has a record of sound decision making.All the talk about Rich being a loose cannon on All Stars very well could be exaggerated. As for Tina, we've already had that debate and we reached a stalemate. As for Yul, you could say his biggest piece of luck was Jonathan.He made an emotional decision to stick witht he Aitus. I haven't read any solid tactial reasoning behind that move."I want to align with the person with the idol". WHAT?! Especially with a great player like Yul,when you have a chance to get rid of the idol and get away scot free,you take it!
XtremeInnovator420		#2974	[-]
Posts: 1208 (05/16/08 9:18 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, SenseiKreese also said that Rafe completely overthought the entire thing and thought that Lydia would pull a Lill or a Kim J at the final TC, even though it wouldn't actually have happened like that.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#2975	[-]
Posts: 3607 (05/16/08 9:24 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thats what I meant.Danni made the right move,but the decision was ultimatly Rafes
SenseiKreese		#2976	[-]
Posts: 2241 (05/16/08 10:42 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah. I don't talk to Rafe much anymore but we used to talk all the time both before and after he was on Guatemala. He knew exactly what he was doing. The only problem was that he was scared to death Lydia was going to pull some immunity win out of her butt at F3 like Kim Johnson did in Africa. He was worried that her low center of gravity was going to be a huge advantage in a F3 type of challenge. Combine that with the fact that Danni was basically passing out from exhaustion just about every day towards the end of the game, and he and Steph decided to take a gamble and drag Danni's pathetic sick ass into the final three. They didn't think she would last very long but she did. Either because she was like Rocky Balboa and she was made of steel, or because she had duped everyone into thinking she was weaker than she was. I have no idea. But Rafe was always very consistent in explaining that's how it went down. Every time I'd give him shit about letting Danni win, he'd always say, "But you never saw how sick she was!" I'm certainly no fan of Rafe as a player, but I know him well enough to know he knew what he was doing. He wasn't the type of person who would make an idiot mistake. Before he went on Survivor, he was one of the smartest Survivor experts I knew. He knew everything.
RavuRules		#2977	[-]
Posts: 1657 (05/16/08 11:15 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Comments to Ravu Af for Rich, I rank him near the top not because of his reputation, but I think most people(including me when I first saw it) had an,dare I say "innaccurate" view of the game? It doesn't take a genius to take advantage of an opportunity with under excellent conditions, but because he is a "modern player" by your standards.He understands game "theory",if it can be called that. Honestly, I question his grasp of comprehensive Survivor strategy. I'd seen his comments on the old Survivor Live where he thought Eliza was a dreadful player, particularly for her wishy-washiness and selling her alliance down the river due to paranoia. Now from a Game Theory perspective, he's right in that it wasn't a rational move, and one can easily see that her lack of a truly stable foundation might have cost her game long-term. However, that still doesn't explain how Eliza did so well and account for the fact that there are many ways to play the game and do well, nor the significant luck factors involved in the game. He didn't even apply Game Theory in ASS. Now, you might argue he felt he had to do something drastic, because he was a winner. However, even with Game Theory, he failed the basics of getting in with a good solid allianceRegardless, his lower rank among the winners is mainly due to the weak competitive level of Borneo--not ASS. Like with Tina, ASS was just the confirmation that there Hatch wasn't extraordinarily special. Only about the final 7-8 players thought of alliance strategies in Borneo, and some of those people only realized it once they were alright marginalized and slapped in the face with hopelessness. Obviously, they didn't have the benefit of history, but there's little doubt that it still made them weak competitors. Just looking at Jenna Lewis before and after clearly shows how dramatically 1 can improve with that kind of knowledge. She didn't become dramatically more intelligent. She just was able to apply her already pre-existing intelligence with the new strategic lessons she learned in Borneo As you said, he suffered from incredibly bad luck on All Stars, so one may think,hes as not as good of a player as Will Kirby,who was under similar circumstances on BB. But I say that the conditions that Rich was under was different. The reputation excuse for ASS only goes so far. Now that we have another comeback season, the excuse looks even weaker with the additional data and other people to compare him to. Ozzy was essentially the Hatch of Micronesia. He was the closest thing to a winner, and the only runner-up in Palau. People were gunning after him pretty hardcore, constantly making him a target, and assuming he'd win for sure if he ever made the finals. Obviously neither won (nor would I expect either to), but Ozzy at least managed to make the jury and was blindsided by someone he considered to be like a sister to him (although Parvati clearly didn't see it that way). Parvati for her part, was gunned after hardcore for reputation bias too and managed to win the whole thing. Eliza's luck was quite bad as well, yet she managed to overcome her target status for awhile by keeping it simple and allying up with people. Hatch's luck seemed somewhat reasonable actually. Had he had a better social game and secured his alliances better at the start, I think he could've at least lasted longer than he did. Instead, he called people when he probably shouldn't have, ran around naked, spied on the girls, etc. He was with rather puritanical players who solidly believed in maintaining the original alliance and "booting threats" as soon as possible. That doesn't seem like the case with all of the members of Mogo-Mogo. Shii Ann seemed to want to work with him. And Mogo-Mogo had agreed to stick together. The main individual who screwed him was Colby, but this was arguably also in part because of Hatch's inability to forge a real bond or working relationship with Colby. Now, it may have just been bad luck. Maybe colby and the others would never have given him a chance no matter what. However, reputation bias only goes so far, since Hatch was tossed for ANOTHER winner--Ethan, who was SUPPOSED to be the tribe's original target. So that would suggest that Ethan is a better social player than Hatch to have managed to weasel himself above Hatch in the alliance structure despite coming from an entirely different tribe. Yes, Hatch was a more famous and perhaps feared player than Ethan. However, the difference between 2 winners is like the difference between like Jonathan Penner's reputation and like Amanda's. Negligible If you watch Rich in Borneo,he doesn't necessarily go after "threats"(well,everyone is ultimatly a threat, but I mean the traditional image of one, either a physical powerhouse or a Jerri type who is a loose end), but he made sound,rational decisions. Gretchen would started "playing" before Greg did, because he is more of an idealist.So at final 9 Gretchen theoretically could have predicted Seans alphabet stratagy and forced a tie. Greg won immunity at f10.If he hadn't,they said he would of left, but do we know for sure? He had better connections with Greg and may have kept him. He also acted on Rudys suggestion on voting with Sean at f8 to boot Jenna. Its arguable, but Gervase was less likely to start a coup, because Kelly viewed him as a threat,as opposed to Jenna. Its possible that at f7,Jenna,Colleen and Kelly would of tried to throw a coup with Seans help(which is doomed to failure because Sean was so tight with Rich, but the girls didn't know that).He also adjusted his plan to boot Kelly at f6.When she won ic, at f4 he very well may have left.Thanks to his brute strength,which is a plus,he could win the tiebreaker over Sue. I think in the right environment,anyone can lose, and anyone might look "overrated" in such a naive group like Borneos.But he has a record of sound decision making. It's a fair point to say he had relatively sound decision making. However, most of the winners have also had sound decision making. So it's not really enough to put him above the majority of them, when you account for the naivety of the competition. Of course, he's a good player. All the winners are, so no one's really doubting that All the talk about Rich being a loose cannon on All Stars very well could be exaggerated. He clearly acted like a loose cannon. Now, he may have had reasons for it, but there's no doubt that running around nude, avoiding early game alliances, purposely not working in camp, etc. is a risky and unconventional social strategy. It was enough for his actions to get special attention and commentary in confessionals Dr. Will. As for Tina, we've already had that debate and we reached a stalemate. How so? If it's a perception issue, then yes it's a stalemate. But if you think there are facts that haven't been covered, then that's different. I haven't really talked much to you about this stuff in awhile. I do think the analogy of an atheist and someone who's religious is somewhat appropriate here. There are some who believe certain winners (Hatch, Tina, and Heidik in particular) are master manipulators yet never provide ample proof merely having faith that the TV edit failed to capture all their real abilities on camera. Now, this may be true and these believers may be right. However, like someone who believes in God, this idea is ultimately faith and assumption driven, whereas I'm asking for tangible proof and evidence to support such assertions. Additionally, if we're to give the benefit of the doubt to certain winners, that the camera "missed" showing all their abilities in their naked glory, then shouldn't we give the same kind of assumptions to all the winners? Failure to do so constitutes "bias" in my eyes, and I don't think it's an accident that many of the most popular seasons and winners hold a close correlation with opinions on winner capabilities As for Yul, you could say his biggest piece of luck was Jonathan.He made an emotional decision to stick witht he Aitus. I don't know if I'd simplify it to just that, but Jonathan was definitely a key luck factor in Yul's success. He was someone that dependent on Yul, who Yul was able to understand and manipulate, and someone who was willing to make a high risk, high reward manuever in order to win. I would say his decision was non-rational in terms of not being a low risk, high reward manuever, but I would say it was logical in that he had decent reasoning behind the move. However, he likely was also influenced emotionally to side with Aitu given their social games and moral leverage after the mutiny Simply blaming Jonathan is definitely not accurate however, as the conditions that caused Jonathan to jump in the 1st place involved just about everybody. Technically, you might say Jonathan never really left Aitu, in that he had followed Candice thanks to an impulsive twist where he had to quickly react to things. So in that sense, even if Yul got "lucky" that Jonathan went back to him, he really wasn't "lucky" in the scheme of things, because Jonathan really shouldn't have left in the 1st place. You have to consider the entire context, not just what Quiddity likes to do and assume that taking out something like the HII means everything else would play out EXACTLY the same I haven't read any solid tactial reasoning behind that move."I want to align with the person with the idol". WHAT?! Especially with a great player like Yul,when you have a chance to get rid of the idol and get away scot free,you take it! Not necessarily. First thing's first, you don't always get rid of the idol. You get rid of the idol in most scenarios, but if your ally is true to you, it hurts you to get rid of it: (1) Why get rid of an idol that's essentially helping you, even if it's indirectly doing so? I might add, this was incredibly frustrating when I was playing with you in Aruba, as I had every intention of going to F3 with you from the moment you became an Outcast, and you kept trying to get rid of it, when me having the idol would only have benefited you. It seems like you took the "get rid of the idol" lesson learned in CI and applied it to Aruba, but you have to understand that you need to apply such "rules" when the context is appropriate. You don't ALWAYS get rid of an idol in each and every circumstance! Had you been more of a complacent ally, we might've have trusted you enough to take out bigger challenge threats like Melinda before Morgan, in which case you would've been more likely to have made F3 with the rest of us (2) The biggest problem with flushing an idol out is that the idol gets re-played and may fall into enemy hands. That can obviously be WORSE, especially if you flush it out of an ally's or working relationship's hands and it goes to like your #1 enemy or something. This kind of randomness and plan-changing game factor is often best avoided. The reason why I kept holding onto my idol was specifically for this reason. I didn't feel I needed it so much as I felt like I had to prevent others from getting it. I can definitely understand why individuals like Ozzy, Jason, or James would be inclined NOT to use an idol. It seriously turns you into, "My precious!" as Dreamz put it So in Jonathan's case, what if he flushes out Yul's idol? He pisses off all of Aitu 4 for good. What if it falls into their hands again like Ozzy? Or worse someone like Nate? Then Jonathan screwed over a perfectly good F2 deal with Yul and a chance to get back in the Aitu 4's good graces, while allowing a well connected threat like Nate get the extremely powerful idol and reap all the benefits from Jonathan playing follower I have covered the "solid tactical reasoning" before but I'll do it again. A good luck factor for Yul was ironically that his competitors in CI were so strategic and threats in and of themselves, which helped Yul become a little more UTR and less threatening in Raro and Jonathan's eyes. They were undoubtedly worried not only of Aitu but also of themselves as long-term threats. Nate was already trying to position himself where he'd be able to have the upper hand in the Raro alliance, and Jonathan was clearly uncomfortable with being Candam's strategic bitch. This I might add, would be an argument FOR submissive, reactive Kingmaker gameplay. For all those who say a player should ALWAYS take charge, play hard, and control their own destiny, I would expect no complaints about what Jonathan did To recap on the soundness of the tactical decision: (1) Jonathan was the swing vote between Raro/Aitu. He tried to change the vote to a non-Yul candidate, and they wouldn't budge, given their own strategic self-interests. This was partially underestimating Yul's ability to get the idol, underestimating Jonathan's desire to control his own fate, and also more importantly worrying strategically about one another (marginalizing Jonathan in this case). Due to mutual distrust and a lack of open communication, Raro made the mistake of playing in a way that was incompatible with Jonathan's personal gameplay style (being an overt game controller). Jonathan is the type to want to have a say in votes and be involved in decisions. Jonathan did not trust Raro enough to flat out tell them Yul had an idol, and Raro for their part didn't trust him enough to negotiate around his wishes and tried to strongarm the vote in their favor (i.e. implying Adam had the idol). This can't simply be blamed on Jonathan. He'd been the deflect boot for the last 2 rounds, and apparently Raro had not properly managed him as a strategic and social ally, at times marginalizing him or being cliquish in a way that was threatening to Jonathan strategically. He's a smart guy and the guy can sense where he is in the pecking order. I'd say the majority of the responsibility here falls on Candice. Her high risk manuever created a chain reaction of events and put more chaos into the scheme that ultimately affected her game chances in an adverse way. When you make a big play like that, you have to know that a lot of factors that you can't control might occur and can't plan for will happen in reaction. In this case, she miscalculated Sundra's loyalty to her and that Jonathan would also jump at the mutiny, which affected them both long-term. This would be an example of when conservative, low risk gameplay IS good (2) Yul's F2 deal with Jonathan was the best deal given to him at that point in the game. The only other deal that was as good was Candice, but given the Candice/Adam showmance, it's easy to see why Jonathan would feel like he's actually 3rd wheel or worse (as was likely the case). Given his 5th wheel position on Raro, you should see how taking a F2 deal even under questionable circumstances is not entirely a horrible idea if you're playing to win (3) At F9 we had the following alliance structure: Adam/Candice Adam/Parvati Adam/Candice/Parvati Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan Adam/Nate Parvati/Nate Adam/Parvati/Nate Adam/Candice/Parvati/Nate Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati/Nate Nate/Ozzy Nate/Sundra Nate/Ozzy/Sundra Yul/Jonathan Yul/Jonathan/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy Yul/Becky Yul/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy The reason why the Yul vote was so controversial was that Jonathan was hedging on how he could gain leverage in the plethora of Raro alliances listed above. Out of those 11 alliances, Jonathan is only in 4 of them. Whereas Adam is in 9/11 of them and Candice & Parvati are in 7/11 of them. Nate, while only in 5/9 of them, but he also had 3 additional connections forming with Aitu possibly. With all these power players, Jonathan's only source of new options and control was Yul, who he'd had a tight connection with back on 2nd Aitutaki. In retrospect, it's easy for Sucksters to think it's moronic to not see how Yul and Aitu were the greatest threats and that all strategic priorities should be focused on marginalizing them. However, in a real-time situation without the benefit of foresight, this dynamic is not so obvious From an overt control perspective, Jonathan gained: Yul/Jonathan Yul/Jonathan/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy Jonathan got rid of: Adam/Nate Parvati/Nate Adam/Parvati/Nate Adam/Candice/Parvati/Nate Nate/Ozzy Nate/Sundra Nate/Ozzy/Sundra While knowing that Raro would be pissed, he might've thought there was a chance to keep his Raro alliances (since they'd need him): Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati/Nate And ended up empowering: Yul/Becky Yul/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy In summary, his flip gained him 2 alliances, lost him 4 alliances, eliminated 7 enemy alliances, and strengthened 4 enemy alliances for a net-gain of +1 alliances. This was obviously a game-ending decision in retrospect, since Raro cut off all strategic ties with Jonathan, whereas, had he been able to keep them he'd be up +5 alliances Had he sided with Raro and flushed the idol out then: He keeps: Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati He loses: Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati/Nate Yul/Jonathan Yul/Jonathan/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy The following are eliminated due to idol deflection: Adam/Nate Parvati/Nate Adam/Parvati/Nate Adam/Candice/Parvati/Nate Nate/Ozzy Nate/Sundra Nate/Ozzy/Sundra The following still remain in play or are strengthened: Adam/Candice Adam/Parvati Adam/Candice/Parvati Yul/Becky Yul/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy This gives him net gain of 0 alliances, while also having the idol re-played, and he also shoots up to the top of Aitu 4's hit-list, while only moving up 1 spot on the Raro ladder. Additionally, it leaves room for UTR Raro puppet masters like Parvati and Adam (who pissed off nobody with a mutiny) to start working with the Aitu 4 who are already not working with Candice and would be doubly livid at Jonathan. Then you could very well have ended up with Micronesia having Parvati run the game with Becky and Sundra as her girls. Right after Nate's boot, Parvati was already trying to work them over, and if Yul wasn't around, I wouldn't be surprised if they'd tried out their options with her
Dictatorship		#2978	[-]
Posts: 2621 (05/16/08 11:36 PM) Crying my eyes out and shaking so much :( Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Curses to whoever bumped this thread and got this troll going again.
Thailandsurvivor		#2979	[-]
Posts: 736 (05/17/08 12:34 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	As you said, he suffered from incredibly bad luck on All Stars, so one may think,hes as not as good of a player as Will Kirby,who was under similar circumstances on BB. But I say that the conditions that Rich was under was different. The reputation excuse for ASS only goes so far. Now that we have another comeback season, the excuse looks even weaker with the additional data and other people to compare him to. Ozzy was essentially the Hatch of Micronesia. He was the closest thing to a winner, and the only runner-up in Palau. People were gunning after him pretty hardcore, constantly making him a target, and assuming he'd win for sure if he ever made the finals. Obviously neither won (nor would I expect either to), but Ozzy at least managed to make the jury and was blindsided by someone he considered to be like a sister to him (although Parvati clearly didn't see it that way). Parvati for her part, was gunned after hardcore for reputation bias too and managed to win the whole thing. Eliza's luck was quite bad as well, yet she managed to overcome her target status for awhile by keeping it simple and allying up with people. Hatch's luck seemed somewhat reasonable actually. Had he had a better social game and secured his alliances better at the start, I think he could've at least lasted longer than he did. Instead, he called people when he probably shouldn't have, ran around naked, spied on the girls, etc. Based on past seasons Ozzy was the least deserving male there (I guess you can make an arguement for James, but at least he was an entertaining dumbass). I actually think that he's the second least total (next to Parv) but the fact that JAYE targetted Parv OVER Ozzy says alot about how much his game in CI was respected. The reason he was targetted later on was because he was being an arrogant douchebag to half of the cast (in addition to him being stupid enough to tell people that he had the idol). Hatch on the other hand had 0 chance to make it past the first vote. Go rewatch that tribal council and everyone elses facial expressions as they were about to take down the master of the game.

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Winner Analysis