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adamchrisgentry wrote:

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So I decided to check out this website before the finale and see if there were any predictions along with thought processes behind those predictions. I am glad I at least ran into this thread, I am sure there will be plenty more posts in hind site after the finale stating people's opionions on "stupid" decisions by the current contestants. lol.

To be honest though, considering how much you all like to critique, I was hoping for some more legitimate predictions accompanied by an analysis.

That being said, I decided to share my own predictions based on the fraction amount of shows I have watched compared to you all. I think my predictions could just be due to common sense if they hold true but just to let you all know, I honestly have no clue what happens during the finale. I may end up way off but if not, I came up with this from the same info you all have, if not less, sense I did not watch all of this season and parts of a few others.

Before I start, I want to state that I believe that the challenges from fifth place on tend to be more catered to endurance. I also want to say that I believe that the remaining contestants most likely believe it comes down to a final three. My reasoning is that recent seasons have had final three and I also, from what I recall, think there were 18 contestants which is above average and make it more likely to have a F3 (they also keep track of what day it is, just like we did, and know that towards the end there will not be a double elimination, and count back each day from day 39 to figure out how many people will be in the Final).

The other HUGE thing is the THREAT VS POWER ratio that I will mention with each of them...

Matty - From the seasons and episodes I have seen, I would say he is some what similar to people like myself, boo, burton and aras. That makes me think he would have a hard time getting further then fifth unless there are other big personalities left (I don't think there are) and he could fly under the rador of others (like aras). I believe Boo and I, with similar types of personalites left, both ended up fifth. I believe more extreme types of other contestants make it so you could do much better (aras) or worse (I think burton was lower then 5th). As far as threat vs power, the remaining people may think that he could do well in future individual immunity challenges (I believe there was one that he held up buckets with his arms stretched out) and also think he could score some votes with the jury that he was friends with, such as marcus.

Susie-History and logic says that she will be in the final and then lose. No offense to her AT ALL (especially since I have no room to talk because we all know no matter what happens, she is not going home next so there for beating me lol). My guess is she will be similar to Becky during my season.

Crystal/Kenny- MAJOR THREATS AND WILL BE VOTED OUT ASAP (if not Matty). That being said, it would be smart to try to keep them in the game if you firmly think they have you in their plans till the final vote. I just think that those two have the tighest alliance left so them and yourself dominates till the final vote. Once at the final vote, since everyone knows that those two would be regarded as a team, votes headed their way could very well be split between the two with everyone in the jury voting either of them (those votes split with those two) or all to you.

Bob - From what I have seen, I think he deserves to win out of the people left. I have not watched all the episodes but he reminds me of both Yul and Ozzy. I like and have a lot of respect for both Yul and Ozzy but people don't realize that Yul was awful at challenges and Ozzy was at strategy. I know Ozzy is extremely bright and Yul is physically gifted but that is not my point as well as what was presented at the time. My point is that Bob has shown to be superior with both those traits. That being said, who knows if that is enough to win. I do think that if he does get to the final vote then he will get the million. The only way for him to not win, which is very possible if the rest of the people left allign together, is if those people end up understanding that he has, at final 5, the most power as well as the one that is most likely to win the final vote.

alright, I have been rambling. Here are my predictions in summary.

contestant - first prediction of place, second, (possibly third)

Bob - first, fifth, fourth

susie - third, second

matty - fifth, fourth, first

crystal - fourth, fifth

kenny - fourth, second

Sorry for the babbling....

Hope everyone is well

ACG