S-17 Edgic (editing and logic) Gabon

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Kitty Pryde1		#4701	[-]
Posts: 7302 (12/15/08 12:51 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: I can declare victory as well as any edgician this season. NEGATIVE FANG THEORY The Negative Fang Edit theory, which I championed more than anyone all seasons, was 100% correct. Crystal and Kenny were the equivalent of Raro postmutiny or Jamie\PG after throwin the IC. Bob and Suagr, the last two Kota, did stategically and physicaly own the Big 3 on Kota. Fang gets Ulonged, then saved by twists, then blows the endgame to run the full gamut of suckitude. Edgic majirity is now 0/3 at picking Comeback Winners. As I said the week I was arguing for Corinne, such comback are better predicted by negative editing for the tribe that blows (Axis of Evil, Ami) than anything special in the comeback player. VISIBILITY Edgic must finally realize that when people like Bob or Corinne only go to TC once on seven episodes, they are gonna by low visibility when Marcus is leader and Randy is entertainment. The people who doubted Parv and backed Cirie based on S16 ep.5-7 made the same error. Moreover, our visibility measure is screwed towards tribes going to TC, with 5 points for TC questions and othing for challenge footage. We neeed to find a fairer measure of visibility between TC going and non TC going tribes. because the main story is always explaining the boot. Bob had a decent edit episode one, and was way more visible postmerge than either Vee or Danni. We can't very well whine able a player that won the AC prize being too UTR. He was a bigger presence than Matty even though Matty spoke more words. Corinne was still a bad pick, Craig. She had too much bad negative editting.
Kirblar		#4702	[-]
Posts: 7118 (12/15/08 12:52 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The problem, as I've stated before- so this isn't me bandwagoning- is this: Editing is art. Edgic attempts to convert art into a mathematical formula. It just doesn't work.
Casey333		#4703	[-]
Posts: 597 (12/15/08 12:53 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Didn't craig also pick Randy and Crystal at various points, in addition to Corrine? He did argue against Ken winning, so I'll give him credit for that at least.
fat little fingers		#4704	[-]
Posts: 5796 (12/15/08 12:56 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oo, I agree up to a point. Yes, we have the guidelines as our main structure, but it's never ever clear cut. Guideline #5: Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. The season's MOR differential takes a lot of episodes before it's useful. Unless we want to modify it to be "Over the course of the first half", which would go against the other assumption that the winner will be hidden, much of the time, behind the other edits in the first half. Marcus bothered me right off the bat because of his perfectness. He also had strange lines, like being thrilled to find a camp, because he was afraid of the predators that lurk in the forest. Marcus bothered everybody! He was disgustingly, blatantly, blandly perfect. We were disappointed that the edit was being so obvious that we had no sport left in Edgic. Well, we kinda ate that one. flf can speak for himself, but i got the feeling that a lot of his commentary to people discussing non-edgic things here was: we don't talk about revisions to edgic until the end of the season. Partly, scepticA. I was also trying to point out that panurge's Biblical themes were getting more and more elaborate and subjective, (The idea of Kenny's jealousy of Matty's proposal, etc.), and that it was straying too far outside of Edgic. It wasn't the looking at themes, but the extrapolating way out into detailed structures to explain everything. That became spec that was no longer based on what we are presented. There is no way to argue the points once we leave the material to back it up. So, I suggested starting a new thread. But, yes, Edgic postmortems are for after the season. Last Edited By: fat little fingers 12/15/08 1:00 AM. Edited 1 times.
craig		#4705	[-]
Posts: 14527 (12/15/08 1:11 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Randy, Corinne, and Matty were all one step removed from the winner, and it was pick your poison in terms of editing flaws. Those who thought Fang were the underdog good guys and Kenny their strategic hero got things completely backwards. The "tribe-focused" edit made sense because Bob got votes from Kota because he was Kota, while Susie got the same from Fang. Even though both were looked down upon stategically by their tribe. Sugar was seen as a traitor by both sides and got zero votes. Corinne could have scooped those same 4 jury votes for the same reasons if she made the end. While the "Fang sucked" theme was clear from the get-go, it only became apparent with Sugar's move at F6 that "good" would prevail. Because before that Sugar was an ambiguous character getting tricked by evil Kenny and acting evil to Randy.
Kitty Pryde1		#4706	[-]
Posts: 7303 (12/15/08 1:12 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: Randy, Corinne, and Matty were all one step removed from the winner, and it was pick your poison in terms of editing flaws. Those who thought Fang were the underdog good guys and Kenny their strategic hero got things completely backwards. The "tribe-focused" edit made sense because Bob got votes from Kota because he was Kota, while Susie got the same from Fang. Even though both were looked down upon stategically by their tribe. Sugar was seen as a traitor by both sides and got zero votes. Corinne could have scooped those same 4 jury votes for the same reasons if she made the end. While the "Fang sucked" theme was clear from the get-go, it only became apparent with Sugar's move at F6 that "good" would prevail. Because before that Sugar was an ambiguous character getting tricked by evil Kenny and acting evil to Randy. She would've gotten those votes, but the fact was, her negativity was editted to show that she COULDN'T win.
craig		#4707	[-]
Posts: 14528 (12/15/08 1:18 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Corinne only got 2 N's all season. Not bad for someone who Self-Presents as a villian in confessions. Not much worse than Todd if she was the comeback winner, which would give her P spin at end. Crystal had half a dozen, and her N was more though and from the get-go. Ken edit was manupulated as being on the wrong side of some stategic decisions. Anyway, Corinne was the Gary H of this season and Marcus was the Brandon. Last Edited By: craig 12/15/08 1:21 AM. Edited 1 times.
Kitty Pryde1		#4708	[-]
Posts: 7305 (12/15/08 1:25 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: Corinne only got 2 N's all season. Not bad for someone who Self-Presents as a villian in confessions. Not much worse than Todd if she was the comeback winner, which would give her P spin at end. Crystal had half a dozen, and her N was more though and from the get-go. Ken edit was manupulated as being on the wrong side of some stategic decisions. Anyway, Corinne was the Gary H of this season and Marcus was the Brandon. Corinne wasn't edgically viable! She was portrayed as a complete bitch that no one would want to see win! For Christ's sake, Bob won, Kota won, stop acting like Corinne made ANY sense. She was INV in TWO episodes and when she wasn't INV, she was made out to be this horrendous bitch. If an underdog is going to win, there AREN'T going to be that negative, otherwise the audience won't give a shit if they win.
scepticA		#4709	[-]
Posts: 1461 (12/15/08 1:36 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Something Craig said: "Moreover, our visibility measure is screwed towards tribes going to TC, with 5 points for TC questions and othing for challenge footage. We neeed to find a fairer measure of visibility between TC going and non TC going tribes. because the main story is always explaining the boot" --- I think this has a LOT of merit. I was talking about this with my spouse a couple of days ago: what is the average visibility rating for members of tribes that go to TC in pre-merge episodes vs. the same average for non TC tribes? i'd guess there was a huge difference, and I'd guess that in almost any episode the non-TC tribe numbers are far smaller. so how does this matter? If, let's say, the typical TC/non-TC average visibility for episodes 2-premerge is 35/15, might there be some reasonable way to adjust visibility ratings to account for this? Yes, I know that it's easy to say "Player X on the non-TC tribe wasn't shown much at all, and they could have shown her." it's kind of obvious. But isn't it more significant if a player on the TC tribe, who got perhaps 40-50% MORE air time than the other tribe had the same meager air time? Just tossing this out as something to consider, and I think it's worthy of discussion even if the most logical result of this analysis still does nothing to make Bob's edit more palatable to Edgic.
Former Lurker 2		#4710	[-]
Posts: 230 (12/15/08 1:37 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kirblar wrote: How do you edit a guy who wins due to another contestant having massive, massive Daddy issues and who has no strategic sense? The theory of edgic is that the editing will predict the winner. The problem is that the edgic presumptions are flawed. You may need to revisit your presumptions to revise your theorem. If you have a thesis and your research and analysis proves it inaccurate, you need to revise your thesis. That is what you need to glean from this season of Survivor.
ncassaro		#4711	[-]
Posts: 437 (12/15/08 1:45 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oowatanite wrote: Abby, first of all, ya gotta use paragraphs. A lot of posters WILL NOT read through one ginormous paragraph. Secondly, this is Edgic. It is not BrainHeartGut. It is not FamilyFinalFour. It is not OpeningCreditsSpeculation. It is not WinnerQuoteAnalysis. It is not BestPositionedPlayers. It is not AnimalImagery101. And it certainly isn't ThinkOutsideTheBox. Corinne got TWO INVs. Corinne was not a legitimate Edgic pick. "Sticking by your pick" when it's obviously wrong is not noble. Marcus was the clear favourite but he got booted. Kenny was the next clear favourite but he got booted. Matty got booted. We had a F3 of possible winners who were not edgically viable. So Edgic failed this season. Oh well, we'll try again next season. Edgic has a set of guidelines built up over the seasons. It is NOT a free-for-all in here. It is not "think outside the box". It is not "my fave's gonna win and here's why". If anyone wants to have a free-for-all spec thread, they are free to start one next season. I can see what you mean, but Bob was edgically viable if you really stretch it and there are things his victory can help us look out for in the future.... although re-watching this season it'd still be impossible to pick him, we can at least learn how to spot a Bob/Danni and not eliminate them if we really try. I agree that Corinne was a bad pick and I personally would have ditched her; I just don't like the nastiness and name-calling.
anthonyd46		#4712	[-]
Posts: 130 (12/15/08 1:47 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kirblar wrote: How do you edit a guy who wins due to another contestant having massive, massive Daddy issues and who has no strategic sense? good point sugar was very important to how this season turned out. Because of sugar randy went that night, ace went home, crystal went instead of matty, ken went instead of susie, and bob made it to the final 3. None of those things would of happened when they did or even happen at all if sugar had been voted out episode 1 or 2. Regardless of bob winning this season was all about sugar. She seemed to be in the center of everything and bob would of never made the final 3 if she didnt force the tie. This is why some people thought sugar won the game because the whole game seemed to revolve around her and even though she didnt win Bob would of finished 4th without her.
Green Coffee		#4713	[-]
Posts: 133 (12/15/08 1:47 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think that the visibility calculations are intended to be heavier for people who go to TC because they necessarily play a larger role in the episode and are likely to actually be more visible to the viewer. The issue, IMO, is more on interpretation. A 1 when you go to tribal is a bigger deal than a 1 when the other tribe goes. A 1 isn't as big a deal if the whole episode is devoted to one major unrelated event that's just good TV. On the other side, getting a 5 when your tribe doesn't go is weird. Getting a 5 when they do go isn't as big of a deal. That said, I think visibility calculations can be improved most by incorporating new aspects of visibility. Major challenge notables (even reporting can substitute for time that would have been given elsewhere if what happens is major) and SPV are big components that I think could be given weight in the calculations. Also, in regards to this, I think the discussion TLS and I had about the viability of INV needs to be examined during the offseason. He thinks it is too subjective and I can see where he's coming from. If INV is meant to actually mean lack of visibility, let's put it to the test by setting an objective visibility cutoff. However, given what we saw here tonight, I am inclined to say the biggest move we need is one that emphasizes a conservative elimination approach. We should truly keep all edits in mind and try our best not to write people off, even when they look like they cannot win. This may include less inclinations to drop INV people from contention (although the theory held here - Bob was low vis and low impact but never absent completely).
James Barber		#4714	[-]
Posts: 14778 (12/15/08 1:51 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The edit Fang had in the early episodes was almost rancid. Not only failure in challenges, but even decisions they made which had some logic in them, like the Jacquie vote, were presented as stupid. I guess that should have been the tipoff. I thought Matty might have had a chance because he was exclude from most of that edit, but I guess he was just the show's sentimental favorite. I wonder how this season would have come across if they'd eased up on the negativity and focused more on some positive moments from Bob and Susie. They were the two nicest people left post-merge, and they were the winner and runner-up. Was that one of the reasons they were ignored? To reinforce how they stood out from the rest?
RobVanStratus		#4715	[-]
Posts: 7423 (12/15/08 1:52 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Edgic failed and I'm glad to see some of you admitting that. I give those of you that I remember off the top of my head, like OO, a round of applause for admitting your failure. I certainly didn't participate in Edgic fully, but I supported Sugar if I had a vote in this and I accept my defeat. In retrospect, what craig is saying is right. Fang was edited too negative early on to win the game and the winner had to be a Kota. Once Marcus left and there were no choices for Edgic, backtracking occurred and Kenny got picked, instead of looking at the whole game thus far. It was pounded into our head that Fang sucks and Kota rules, so Bob winning fit the story. Bob was the only pure Kota after Marcus left and was the only one not tainted by the loser Fang tribe. Bob was very much a Danni win in that everyone left had flaws to their edits and he was the underdog from the dominating alliance that got picked off. But if you actually looked at edits you could pick off people considered the "top picks." Matty was one note, about loving his girlfriend. He saw her and proposed, end of story. Kenny was about going from kid to man, and at the end he failed to become a man with his petty argument with Bob after getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar. I'm not saying I know everything, but looking in retrospect, Edgic made major mistakes in picking severely flawed choices. Also, the ratings for this whole season have been entirely skewed by biases. Crystal had far too many negatives and Sugar most definitely did not deserve negatives for the Randy boot, the audience loved it and supported her. Now Marcus got far too many CP episodes because everyone latched onto them as winners. Marcus talked about strategy like twice, once when the Onions formed and then once when he got booted. Other than that, he was MOR and got to the CP edits because people were trying to fit him into the Edgic story of a winner. Also the ranking of INV needed to be relooked at as well. Bob definitely had at least one INV episode and Kenny definitely had an INV in Ep3. Those should Edgically eliminate them, but incorrectly rated and Kenny got to stick around. Not like it affected Bob, other than Kitty no one ever really picked him as a top runner for winner.
Kitty Pryde1		#4716	[-]
Posts: 7306 (12/15/08 1:53 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	One problem I see with the current system is that once we eliminate someone, or deem them unwinable, those players' ratings tend to get skewed. Bob got a ton of OTTs, but I thought he got several CPs towards the end. I think if someone is something early on, we shouldn't automatically give them a similar rating down the road because of that. This happened with Sugar and it happened with Bob.
Kitty Pryde1		#4717	[-]
Posts: 7307 (12/15/08 1:56 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	RobVanStratus wrote: Edgic failed and I'm glad to see some of you admitting that. I give those of you that I remember off the top of my head, like OO, a round of applause for admitting your failure. I certainly didn't participate in Edgic fully, but I supported Sugar if I had a vote in this and I accept my defeat. In retrospect, what craig is saying is right. Fang was edited too negative early on to win the game and the winner had to be a Kota. Once Marcus left and there were no choices for Edgic, backtracking occurred and Kenny got picked, instead of looking at the whole game thus far. It was pounded into our head that Fang sucks and Kota rules, so Bob winning fit the story. Bob was the only pure Kota after Marcus left and was the only one not tainted by the loser Fang tribe. Bob was very much a Danni win in that everyone left had flaws to their edits and he was the underdog from the dominating alliance that got picked off. But if you actually looked at edits you could pick off people considered the "top picks." Matty was one note, about loving his girlfriend. He saw her and proposed, end of story. Kenny was about going from kid to man, and at the end he failed to become a man with his petty argument with Bob after getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar. I'm not saying I know everything, but looking in retrospect, Edgic made major mistakes in picking severely flawed choices. Also, the ratings for this whole season have been entirely skewed by biases. Crystal had far too many negatives and Sugar most definitely did not deserve negatives for the Randy boot, the audience loved it and supported her. Now Marcus got far too many CP episodes because everyone latched onto them as winners. Marcus talked about strategy like twice, once when the Onions formed and then once when he got booted. Other than that, he was MOR and got to the CP edits because people were trying to fit him into the Edgic story of a winner. Also the ranking of INV needed to be relooked at as well. Bob definitely had at least one INV episode and Kenny definitely had an INV in Ep3. Those should Edgically eliminate them, but incorrectly rated and Kenny got to stick around. Not like it affected Bob, other than Kitty no one ever really picked him as a top runner for winner. Sugar WAS N for the Randy boot episode, and it was reinforced in the next episode, and in Bob's responses/the jury's comments at the FTC. She was DEFINITELY N in that episode.
mfrimley		#4718	[-]
Posts: 963 (12/15/08 2:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm just wondering. Is it a coincidence that they just happened to have helicopter shots of Bob from his hike? Had anybody else won, would they have had helicopter shots of that person lying around? Do they have helicopters following everybody around just in case?
craig		#4719	[-]
Posts: 14532 (12/15/08 2:48 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sugar was N for the randy boot, and had to be to explain her getting ZERO votes, and because Bob calling her out came up as a topic at the final TC. Also the Negative Fang edit went along with their main critic Randy getting a decent edit, rather than being a one-note villian.
Tyran Amiros		#4720	[-]
Posts: 251 (12/15/08 2:48 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sugar had to go N (or at least M) in the final few episodes to explain why the Sweetheart didn't get any votes at the Final TC. My parents still wanted her to win the America's Tribal Council, though, after Bob won the million. About Crystal being N, all of the people I watch with cheered when she got booted Thursday. My parents actually called after the show to say how glad they were that Crystal was finally gone. That's an N edit there, no matter how popular she is on the Sucks board. Kenny wasn't quite as N as Crystal, but there was a clear N undertone to his edit also. I think one thing about this season that we could not have predicted was the importance of tribe tone as distinct from individual tone. Normally, it doesn't matter when a tribe gets a positive or a negative edit, because it gets reflected in tone ratings for individual members--Ps on Koror or Drake in Tom/Ian and Rupert, for example. But I noticed early on that Kota as a tribe was getting a very P edit without touching any actual members of Kota. We had a number of toneless episodes, or ones where there were actually Ns on Kota, but the tribe as a whole was P. The edits of the Onions were highly manipulated--particularly Corrine--to avoid negativity on Kota, or when it happens, foist it onto grumpy old Randy or pre-merge boot Dan. As viewers we were never supposed to be happy that Fang took control of the game after the second switch, because Marcus' boot paved the way for Bob's classic story of a fall from grace and ultimate redemption. That's also why Fang never received an underdog edit premerge like Ulong. All of this really did point to Bob's win, but how much is capable of being caught by Edgic?

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S-17 Edgic (editing and logic) Gabon

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