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Kitty Pryde1 |
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The eiminate INVs needs to be further enforced, not lessened. We never would've had Ken or Corinne on our lists if we followed the INV rule.
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cantthinkofaname |
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Is there a deadline for the voting site yet?
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Phoenix1269 |
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in the 5 minutes it took for me to write this... there have been like 20 posts, so if i've missed something, i am not ignoring you....
First Off... some unfinished business.... 1. CONGRATULATIONS BOB! on winning Survivor Gabon! 2. OTH - my thoughts are with you and family. I hope all gets resolved quickly and that you stay strong and grounded. And a great Final TC analysis. 3. Regarding Plan A and Plan B winners... every Plan B season winner that was mentioned (Vee, Chris, Danni, Bob) has one thing in common... there was an early Tribal Switch (E3 or E4). Most Tribal Switches typically occur at E6. NCass pointed this out around the time of the first switch and I thought it was a good point then, and i still think it's a good point. Early Tribal Switch means you haul up Plan B and take a look at anyone who is still edgically viable, even if they aren't edgically desirable. 4. Someone (guatamala fanfic?) mentioned the UTR with Tone perhaps being something to watch for. ABSOLUTELY!!! Tone means some craft & care went in there. 5. I would like to wrap up the stats for the Season. Please - Do Some ratings and Vote for our Final 5. Monday Dec 22 at 6:00 pm MST 6. Watchdogs vs Devil's Advocates... I'd go for 2 or 3 Devil's Advocate's. But we still need to address Close Calls. I felt there were SEVERAL Close calls that were skewed due to the MArcus Winning fiasco including both Bob and Sugar getting OTT's instead of CP's. This is not slam on anyone, it is a question to the process. GF & FLF were both very busy this fall, and to have that much responsibility fall to just 2 people, isn't really fair. 7. We need to bring back the recapping of the Previously Ons... 8. Themes - in the last 7 seasons I've found that the main theme IS ALWAYS presented in the first episode, by Jeff combined with a statement in the preseason interview from Jeff, and is reinforced in the following 3 episodes & recaps. -- I will be doing a follow-up on the MOR DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS that i did on Saturday. Interestingly enough the MOR Diff observations were bang on, It was my 1:00 am interpretatio of them that was off. My own bias for Bob's poor Pre-Merge led me to dismiss him, yet had i actually LOOKED at his ratings as a unit, i may have drawn a different conclusion. |
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Casey333 |
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Theme-based approach wouldn't solve anything this season. It would have just led to a Matty winner pick. I knew a "good" player would win this
season, but Matty had the best edit of those players. I always pay attention to themes, sometimes it can narrow down the list of players in contention. But
rarely is a theme so specific that you can use it to pinpoint a winner.
No amount of guidelines you add is going to encompass edits like Bob. He admitted that his strategy was NOT to strategize (interestingly Danni said something very similar - she intentionally did most of her strategizing off-camera). |
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Kirblar |
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Casey333 wrote:Tom and Danni both did that because they were incredibly image-conscious. A lot of Guatemala's cast was like that actually (piss-break strategy ftl.) |
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TheLurkerSpeaks |
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Phoenix1269 wrote: |
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sunflower101 |
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getting real wrote:I really don't think that Randy's vote influenced anything. I think he voted in lock step with the onions. Not complaining that Bob won but Randy was always going to vote with the other onions. I do think they should have shown that seen with Randy/Susie. |
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guatemala fanfic |
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4. Someone (guatamala fanfic?) mentioned the UTR with Tone perhaps being something to watch for. ABSOLUTELY!!! Tone means some craft & care went in there.Nope, that wasn't me, although I do remember seeing it a few pages back and can't recall who posted it. My post was about seasons with Episode 4 switches always producing an UTRish, low-visibility winner. 6. Watchdogs vs Devil's Advocates... I'd go for 2 or 3 Devil's Advocate's. But we still need to address Close Calls. I felt there were SEVERAL Close calls that were skewed due to the MArcus Winning fiasco including both Bob and Sugar getting OTT's instead of CP's. This is not slam on anyone, it is a question to the process. GF & FLF were both very busy this fall, and to have that much responsibility fall to just 2 people, isn't really fair.I said from the beginning that I wanted to have a third person making Close Call decisions, and yes, it did turn out that FLF and I were both really busy. I'm not sure that Close Calls were really affected though (I agree that some of my ratings posts suffered by me being busy, but not close calls), aside from maybe Sugar's Episode 3 OTT because her edit was supposed to be unimportant based on Eps 1 and 2. But other than that, Bob got OTT over MOR in the premiere and I definitely believe that was right. His next close call was Episode 9 where I made the sole decision for him to be OTT (over MOR, not CP) based on a close following of the guidelines for each edit type. In the following episode, FLF and I both went with MOR, and for me that was as a middle ground between OTT and CP. |
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getting real |
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Theme-based approach wouldn't solve anything this season. It would have just led to a Matty winner pick. I knew a "good" player would win this season, but Matty had the best edit of those players. I always pay attention to themes, sometimes it can narrow down the list of players in contention. But rarely is a theme so specific that you can use it to pinpoint a winner. My practice is to look for manipulation in editing and to interpret them using a combination of traditional Edgic fundamentals and story and theme-basis analysis. OK, this was my experience this season: 1. During the first episode, because of the manipulation in the first challenge, I correctly identified that teamwork was going to be a significant theme of the season and that the winner was going to be a good guy with a huge emphasis on helping others. I noted that, because of that, Marcus and GC might be in trouble and that the people shown most to be helping others were Matty, Bob and Dan. Still during the first episode, immediately after the challenge, we are shown the Kota camp, where Bob is shown receiving the adulation of his tribemates for the work he is doing. There are two unusual aspects to what we are shown: A. Although Bob is the one praised for his work, the footage shows him involving others in helping him and contributing to the tasks B: there is a little slow motion vignette of Bob being hoisted on the men's shoulders in triumph at completing the task. The teamwork aspect is reinforced time and time again, with Probst going out of his way to emphasize it. As the story unfolds, I becomer certain the winner will be a good guy with a devotion to teamwork. I think Matty fits the mould best. I discount Bob because of Edgic fundamentals. He appears too OTTP one-dimensional (!) and he is ignored for long stretches. However, even during the period when he is ignored, we are aware of him working in the background, although we are told he won't be taken to the end-game. Fast forward to Day 39 and the last footage of the camp. They prepare to burn it down but it's a process unlike what we have seen before. Bob is obviously the organizer but there is this strange manipulation of Bob shown to involve others: calling them by name to participate, showing them where to light the fire, etc. And this after he has been quitely portrayed like this for the entire series. It looks like the intent now is to show the circle being completed with the camp scene in Day 1. He is, perhaps, the first winner since Hatch to evoke a successful "keep me because I'm valuable around camp" strategy. 2. In the third episode, I highlight the unique editing choice of players shown to be discussing their tribe picks, for the first time in history. Not only that, they subtitle the conflict between Kenny and Matty over Kenny overlooking Bob. Not only that, they emphasize, from a number of angles, that Bob and Sugar are the last picked. And Probst asks rhetorically whether Bob is a diamond in the rough! I note that scene for later, and, as the show evolves, I interpret it as significant because of the end-game conflict between Matty and Kenny. Even though it is Bob's name that is subtitled, I discount Bob because of Edgic fundamentals. 3. In the next two episodes, I note the extremely unusual language used by Probst on multiple occasions (directly, in recaps and in voice-overs) to editorialize against Jacquie being booted despite the move appearing to be a good one in reality. I file away that note for later and, when Marcus gets booted, the slate is wiped clean and Fang gets the upper hand, I note that something is wrong. I note that had Fang won, they would have used the Jacquie boot as a plus for them, not as the 'death-wish- it was painted as. I think soemone from Kota still has a chance (even considering Corinne at one point) but I discount it because of Edgic fundamentals. Later, because of Edgic fundamentals, I decide that the editorial disapproval surrounding Jacquie's boot applies only in to those Fang who were responsible for it, not to those opposed to it, such as Matty and Sugar. 4. After Sugar gets rid of Ace because of Kenny's lie and Matty tells Sugar about it under the Star of David, that this is the pivotal scene of the season and that Sugar is being edited as a femme fatale/Eve who will eventually sacrifice her idol to redeem Matty, the anointed one. When Bob has his helicopter shot on the clifftop, I briefly think that the imagery is of thraditional 'God in his heaven' kind and that it is possible that the redemption might involve God the Father being the only one left in Eden but I surrender on the idea because of Edgic fundamentals. 5. After a major editing departure from the norm in showing a confessional immediately after an immunity challenge for the first time, I am more certain than ever that teamwork will be key to winning this game. This is where Probst tells Fang that, unless they work together, they'll be at TC every time and we are immediately shown a confessional by Crystal talking about me. I correctly eliminate Crystal from winners' contention and strengthen my opinion that Matty best represents this theme. I overlook Bob, the person most shown to represent this theme, because of Edgic fundamentals. 6. During the scene that turned to be the pivotal scene in the game where Sugar asks Bob to give Randy the fake idol, I note the manipulation of : A. Sugar's "I have...your best ineterests in mind", and B. the lingering last shot implying that Sugar is in Bob's debt. However, although I'm pretty sure this will come into play later, I discount Bob's winning chances because of Edgic fundamentals. 7. During the family visit, my view of Matty representing love makes me believe that Matty's is the significant edit from that episode. Everyone else's edit was appalling in that episode. Except for Bob whose God-like facilitation of everyone else getting to see their loved ones could have been interpreted as merely reporting but also seemed to have an additional layer to it. Sadly, only in hindsight. This was the only possible manipulation about Bob that I didn't see except in hindsight, so I can't blame Edgic fundamentals for leading me astray on that one. What conclusion am I to draw from all this? That I seem to have correctly picked most of the editing clues along the way but was led astray because of Edgic fundamentals? I know FLF, Wallduck and TLS will probably tell me to get out of Edgic and start another thread somewhere but I had Kenny's serpent-tending edit pegged also, so I think I'm entitled to participate in the discussions. I don't know. I think the main conclusion to be drawn is to keep looking for those editing anomalies. They're there for a reason. Most times.
Last Edited By: getting real
12/16/08 03:38 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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cindidindi76 |
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Actually, no. His own poor edit by Edgic standards is what led you to dismiss him, justifiably. Can we quit trying to pretend that we should have picked Bob to win? What he said. I'm all for tweaks postseason, because improvements can always be made, but trying to change the whole shebang so that someone who isn't an edgically viable winner is, will most likely lead to more missteps, rather than better picks, imo. An aberrant edit is an aberrant edit. Which is not to say that someone like Bob should be completely ignored, but a particular edit being valid one out of 17 times, and not valid the rest of the time shouldn't be cause for a complete overhaul. |
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Francois40 |
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But the "Ulong season" was an extreme example of one tribe never going to TC, and yet Tom emerged as the Edgic winner, no? (It was before my time here). If they somehow manage to show enough of a tribe on that kind of winning streak (ergo not TC-ing) for a player to emerge as the ldea contender, then surely they COULD do it on other seasons with not such a string of Ulongings. |
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RobVanStratus |
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The moral of the story is without spoilers, Edgic fails, with spoilers, Edgic reigns supreme.
I expect to see Brazil highly spoiled because of its location and Edgic will end up picking the winner and praising themselves. And I don't mean everyone uses spoilers. There are a few good Edgicers that I actually enjoy reading their comments because they are not biased because they adore certain players or attacking everyone else for not following the herd, like Kitty/Guatemalafanfic/colleenlover. But the vast majority of Edgic uses spoilers and doesn't like to admit it because they just want to say they picked the winner. And it's all fine and dandy to look back now at the clues that were there for Bob, but stop kidding yourself by saying you pegged these moments for Bob. You didn't, until it was too late and the supposed F3 spoiler came out, and people jumped on Bob winning. Y'all for the most part jumped on Marcus and Kenny, and then Matty, stupidly ignoring Bob. |
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TheLurkerSpeaks |
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9RedWing19 |
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More Visibility Numbers
I looked at the F6 for seasons 9 through 17, calculated their average visibility per episode, then looked at where the F2 ranked in average visibility per episode among the F6. S9: Chris 3rd, Twila 2nd [Eliza edged out Chris] S10: Tom 1st, Katie 3rd S11: Danni 5th, Steph 1st [Steph's average visibility per episode was the highest of the F6 in the 9 seasons that I looked at] S12: Aras 5th, Danielle 6th [remember that the others (Terry, Cirie, Shane, Courtney) were all "entertaining" contestants] S13: Yul 1st, Ozzie 2nd S14: Earl 1st, Dre 2nd S15: Todd 1st, Courtney 4th S16: Parvati 3rd, Amanda 4th [Erik's average was higher than Parvati, but there is no gender bias in Survivor editing] S17: Bob 5th, Susie 6th [at 2.3/1.8 much worse than Aras/Danielle at 3.1/2.6] Just more data to reinforce how atypical the S17 editing was. |
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9RedWing19 |
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RobVanStratus wrote:We all yearn to be as intelligent as you are. Pray for us. |
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getting real |
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TLS, I did point out the anomalies - and you consistently argued against them actually signifying anything. And you were wrong. Because you closed your mind
off to the possibilities and refused to even see them as anomalies. I'm a little amused that you needed to quote my entire post to tell me that I'm
stuffing it down your throat. Come on,man. Where's that legendary sense of humor gone to?
You also can't argue with the interpretation I had from Episode 1: The theme of the season is teamwork. The winner will be the person best shown to exemplify that concept. I was wrong thinking that was Matty. But that was only because I discounted Bob based on Edgic fundamentals. You, however, appeared to close your mind to anything that was suggested. Phoenix, I've been looking back and was impressed with your reservations about what Bob's role might be. There was obviously something that was puzzling you as well. Not only that, you even mentioned that Bob was the only person not to have been in any version of Fang, thereby making him the only person to be totally without taint or sin. Very impressive. |
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TheLurkerSpeaks |
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No, gr, I objected to your interpretation of the anomalies. That isn't the same thing. Regardless, no amount of discussion was going to get me to pick
Bob for the winner because he doesn't fit. If he fits under some other means of determining the winner, fine, but that's not Edgic.
Perhaps you'll point out where I argued that an editing glitch didn't mean anything? I may not have agreed with you, but that doesn't mean I ever said things don't mean anything. But there are lots of times when the editing is done for the current episode, not long term foreshadowing. You can't prove any of your theories even after the fact. I can certainly argue against that Teamwork is a valid theme. Tell me how it aided Bob's win or pointed to Bob winning. Bob got to the end because Sugar decided he should, mainly because he reminded her of her father, certainly not by any sense of teamwork. There was no mention of teamwork post-merge whatsoever, not even at the final TC. Instead, what happened is that you decided it was a theme early on, held onto that notion throughout despite the lack of any evidence, and when the winner could be loosely connected to the theme you thought should have been, you claimed victory. Sorry, but I'm not impressed. Maybe you are just too close minded to accept that you may have been wrong that Teamwork was ever a valid theme. |
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ncassaro |
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I think a theme-based approach would be a huge step in the wrong direction... I really prefer Green Coffee's ideas. Theme-based approaches are way too
subjective. Not that edgic ever was a science, but I think coming to consensus on a theme to begin with is hard; once you do, it's then hard to decide who
best fits the theme. The most important things to look for are when we are getting a "type B" winner based on seasons like Marquesas, Guatemala, and
Gabon, and we've already narrowed that down a lot ("we" meaning mostly Green Coffee... GC I think you are the edgic Jesus in a way.)
Last Edited By: ncassaro
12/16/08 05:17 PM.
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BlakeB717 |
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Much like Guatemala was about Stepheme's loss, Gabon was about Sugar's strategic idiocy by propelling good, likeable people to the end over strategic,
evil people.
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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I think theme-wise, we could've picked Bob after the recap episode. That was when the editors specifically told us he was an underdog and got his
connection to that theme. Ken's comment should've told us that an underdog would win the game.
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