S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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fat little fingers		#2341	[-]
Posts: 5968 (03/25/09 09:19 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd have a photographic memory but it was never developed. Remove this ad I'm with cl. After this ep, it's still Stephen or Sierra to me, with JT still in the #3 slot. Fun Recrap Analysis Timbira: Tyson says he's the better player than Coach. Tyson goes before Coach? Erinn calls Coach the idiot, while the soundtrack includes the symphonic music over Coach's conducting. That was a direct contradiction of Erinn's opinion. Erinn's not winning? But, Coach is a jackass. Brendan tells us that a major reason for doing Survivor is to have fun. Um..., uh-uh, not in SEG's book. Brendan (again) plays second-fiddle to Stephen in the EI scenes. Brendan's not winning. Sierra (again) gives an ambivalent comment on her game, when she tells us she could give a flying f*ck what her tribe thinks of her. Is that another nail in her coffin? Or, has she already redeemed herself when she built the camp to get on their good side? Sierra gives Coach some credit for actually coaching her. Is that a good scene? Does she ally with Coach, when the Exile Alliance goes to hell? Sierra could be our winner, but the recap keeps her doubt in place. Jalapao Taj doesn't want to go home empty-handed after getting bug-bit. Taj gets a car? Or is she blindsided before the merge? Sydney may be JT's ally. That would make all the scenes and preview make sense. JT continues to have winner possibilities, but he also continues to feed Stephen's story and not vise versa. Stephen gets a repeat of his "JT's sidekick" story. JT reinforces Stephen's story by confirming that he sees Stephen just as Stephen predicted. We see the time at EI through Stephen's eyes. My 1-2-3 after the recrap Stephen is still my #1 pick. Sierra is right behind him. JT is my alternate. eta: I agree with whoever posted that the all-Timbira confessionals on the truck were a very interesting thing. Another check in the Sierra box. (Sorry, Oo. But, you can enjoy picking on me all next season, after Erinn wins.) Last Edited By: fat little fingers 03/25/09 09:24 PM. Edited 1 times.
colleenlover		#2342	[-]
Posts: 9051 (03/25/09 09:21 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I just rewatched it. I had missed the first few minutes so had no idea they did the boot recap (in a cool new way too). I still came away with the same feeling before tonight. Sierra has the manipulation for character growth, Stephen has the game manipulation. The Coach/Sierra scene was pretty weighty with inroads to a story ending; Stephen has all the tools to pulling the most strings down the line. Erinn will be a cog to Coach and Tyson -more Tyson. I think Coach has a good chance of outlasting Tyson and redeeming himself- maybe endgame. I think Tyson is the first half of the story speedbump- the "evil" opposition. And holy heck, major spoiler in the future events ending of the episode with someone blatantly wearing a new color buff. I love the old school spoiling by screen shots. I miss the Outback days.
wallduck		#2343	[-]
Posts: 516 (03/25/09 09:24 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The recap episode is very important to edgic. But, as with every episode, you have to interpret it correctly. Some content hints at the winner, but some content is to set up the next boot, and some is just for entertainment. My interpretations: Sydney--Edgically she's not viable, and her very visible presence tonight was not particularly entertaining. Probably it was to prep viewers for her boot next week. Tyson--Entertaining as always, but nothing more. JT--Very Ozzieish episode, setting him up as a likely winner. Which means he's not winning. Sierra--Largely playing against Coach, but in this case the point was that Coach is not really a !00% ass. The scene where Sierra acknowledges him as a coach is probably another setup for next week, which looks to be Coach-centered and in which he'll probably be CP rather than OTT. As for Sierra, this was not a particularly helpful episode for her. Brendan--Not good, made him look too strong. Taj--A little strange with all the body stuff, presumably to continue to make us sympathize with her. But far from meaningful. Stephen--Good balance of visibility combined with vulnerability; places him nicely for the win.
Katy Carney		#2344	[-]
Posts: 5176 (03/25/09 09:26 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	This recap had a continuation of a lot of plotlines. For Timbira: The Sierra/Coach dynamic was revisited. She also got some comments on the opening twist and her sickness and how she "didn't give a flying fuck" because she was so sick. Tyson was still OTT but still scheming, got more insight into his atypical Mormon character. Debbie was still loud and in the background having fun, but still inconsequential and connection-less in a game sense. Erinn still hates her entire tribe and is struggling. Still a target. Brendan had the rivalry with Coach and the cementing of the EA, and he elaborated some on his "business" mind and how he approaches the game in contrast to Coach. Coach was everywhere as usual, with connections to everyone, even the other tribe ("Coach is Steven Segal how can we ever beat him!?") For Jalapao: Stephen is the main protagonist for the show at this point. His bond with JT was featured, his fear of Sydney was fleshed out more, he got some cute moments with Brendan...the only thing really new here was why he sees Sydney as such a big threat to him and that he worries if he can trust JT. JT was called "the tribe leader" approximately 346 times in the recap, by Joe, by Sydney, by Stephen...JT is a likeable country boy who is secretly smart. Taj had a breakdown about her skin or something. Probably the most inconsistent and random plot in this recap. Sydney is more than a pretty face and works hard around camp. Talked JT up quite a bit. Seemingly unaware that she is Stephen's target. Joe gets a connection to JT and talks about being UTR. Overall the recap was very consistent with the edit they've all received so far. And there were no scenes featuring voted off castmembers.
colleenlover		#2345	[-]
Posts: 9052 (03/25/09 09:29 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	ah, flf -we posted around the same time with the same thoughts. I haven't really thought about JT as much as everyone else. I probably should. he definitely does have the backup. And I can't just call it as the type that Burnett loves and would highlight anyway -that's why I knocked off Bob. But I'm going to play the odds and give the edge to Sierra and Stephen. If Gabob reaired, I'd still give the edge to Sugar, Matty and Kenny everytime over Bob. In any case, I think JT is more instrumental than being the early merge feel bad boot. He's entrenched in the story, namely Stephen's story. could be the cog to the Exhile group going the distance. JT certainly has more craft to his edit than Brendan -who's edit seems dependent on the real life events. *PS -off the record, I think Debbie might be a really good player. She's not winning, but being impartial to editing, she's doing something right in the real life events of the game last fall -at least at this stage.
Mypoody2		#2346	[-]
Posts: 8997 (03/25/09 10:03 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Why do you keep referring to real life, what does that mean and what relevance does it have to edgic?
I LUV TIJUANA		#2347	[-]
Posts: 12341 (03/25/09 11:34 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: Erinn is going to lose win this game! Glad to see you finally came around.
Green Coffee		#2348	[-]
Posts: 208 (03/25/09 11:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I've deliberately avoided participating for the longest time. So much hostility recently. One thing I did notice is the huge jump in Stephen support after he got a CP episode and Sierra got another low key one. Looking back on Edgic over time, it seems like Edgic is quick to elevate the chances of people who receive CP episodes VERY quickly (usually within the same episode). CP seems to have an immediate effect of elevating our opinions of winner chances regardless of where and when it is placed. Sometimes you have strong and consistent Edgic picks with "blips" on the radar where a 2nd best contender suddenly rises up after a big episode but then drops again after the longstanding contender resumes a CP style. Is this stuff with Stephen an effect of recalling the most easily obtained info strongly or are we just coming around to him? I'm also kind of wondering about a lot of the claims about connections that are getting made. Do we have any actual data/trends on how often statements are contradicted vs. eventually supported? When we see player A say "I will beat player B for sure!" a lot of people will cite that as probable evidence that player B will ironically beat player A. How sure are we that it's not just foreshadowing of what WILL happen? What's the correlation between statements on Survivor and their later fulfilment? Obviously, we can easily cite all of those juicy, hilarious, ironic instances where someone was contradicted (hello availability heuristic!), so is that why there is such strong support for these ideas? Or is it really the case that comments are rarely, if ever, confirmed (despite things like Corrine's correct warning that Sugar would not win... hmmm)? Worth thinking about when speculating that Erinn is a shoe-in to beat Tyson and/or Coach by the end of the game or other such predictions. I just don't see the correlation as being high enough to make a strong conclusion about it. You never know when it REALLY IS just plain foreshadowing of what WILL happen. Winner: Stephen/Sierra Tyson/Erinn Not looking so good to me anymore JT (can't put my finger on why) Not dead yet? Brendan (but really, yeah I seriously doubt it) Dead Others I doubt anyone fits "Type B" at this point. Spencer and JT were the only real contenders for it and Spencer was eliminated. JT on the other hand had an episode that really didn't fit too well with the pattern (the Bobby Jon comparison was perfect). At this point, either Sierra wins and we will all say "Yeah we should have noticed that Stephen was on the uncomplex tribe and wasn't quite right." Or Stephen will win and we will say "That cooldown was too much, she was too cocky and all her early stuff had to be included." Or Tyson/Erinn/JT will win and we will say both of the above things (plus some really annoying gloating if it's Erinn).
craig		#2349	[-]
Posts: 15298 (03/26/09 01:01 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	If Gabob reaired, I'd still give the edge to Sugar, Matty and Kenny everytime over Bob. Funny, if it played again and there was just the slightest whiff of a Bob spoiler, it would seem so logical to me after the Marcus boot. Because that was the final piece in the Gabon puzzle which I'd wrongly discarded, and I KNEW the Kenny\Crystal\Sugar\Matty pieces weren't right.
Jedijake		#2350	[-]
Posts: 5566 (03/26/09 06:10 AM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd have a photographic memory but it was never developed. Remove this ad I have to admit that the "I don't give a !@#$" remark coupled with the recent stroke of arrogance do NOT fare well for Sierra. That's tough because her edit is so great otherwise. On a good note for the Exile alliance, all 4 have very strong edits. Power alliances that have failed in the past have consisted mainly of UTR players and one strong player. Being that all 4 Exiles are strong may stand to reason that the alliance, or most ot it at least, stands up to the test of time. I'm still holding out for a Sierra win, but much will depend on the root and extent of her alleged outburst next episode.
Willlo13		#2351	[-]
Posts: 2 (03/26/09 08:35 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Green Coffee wrote: At this point, either Sierra wins and we will all say "Yeah we should have noticed that Stephen was on the uncomplex tribe and wasn't quite right." Or Stephen will win and we will say "That cooldown was too much, she was too cocky and all her early stuff had to be included." Or Tyson/Erinn/JT will win and we will say both of the above things (plus some really annoying gloating if it's Erinn). I've really enjoyed discovering Edgic and lurking the board throughout this season, and I just have to add that this is probably the most insightful and correct statement I've seen yet. Aside from that, watching the episode, it kept feeling like the amount of information we were getting on each person was inversely proportional to their Edgic chances, with the exception of Stephen. I can't remember who mentioned it, but I agree - I think the visibility chart will be quite interesting for this episode. Yet, because of all the screen time for Sydney and such, I wonder if the editors took this episode as a deliberate break to expand upon the personalities that didn't fit into their story arc for the standard episodes. And if this is the case, what does that mean about Stephen still getting a lot of airtime? I've had Sierra at the top for a while, but there have been many, many extremely persuasive arguments for Stephen on this board lately...
Oowatanite		#2352	[-]
Posts: 7153 (03/26/09 08:59 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	fat little fingers wrote: Sorry, Oo. But, you can enjoy picking on me all next season, after Erinn wins. LAMINATED
Oowatanite		#2353	[-]
Posts: 7154 (03/26/09 09:02 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Green Coffee wrote: I've deliberately avoided participating for the longest time. So much hostility recently. Oh, and
Oowatanite		#2354	[-]
Posts: 7155 (03/26/09 09:09 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Green Coffee wrote: Or Tyson/Erinn/JT will win and we will say both of the above things (plus some really annoying gloating if it's Erinn). Considering all of the shit the Shamrocks have received just for having Erinn in our top three, we have plenty of reason to gloat when Erinn winns.
Brazil Luvs Ami		#2355	[-]
Posts: 277 (03/26/09 09:34 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think all my three top picks got a pretty decent recap considering their chances. Stephen was all over the place in Jalapão. Every scene there we got to see him, at least in the background saying anything. Will he loose a tiebreak challenge for Sydney or it's just a recap thing? There was so much with Stephen vs. Sydney in this recap, and it was meaningful, apparently. Sierra got a great scene with Coach, it can be very telling, Remember Coach saying in the first episode that he's able to "inspire the best out of everybody", maybe that's something he'll do with Sierra. And remember that Sierra/Coach scene was introduced by Jeff narrating that Sierra had recovered from her negative first impression and for that reason Coach approached her. And Erinn got, imo, a very interisting first confessional about the game. And I can't see any reason to drop her from my top 3. JT and Tyson got, also, good recaps imo. Tyson was used more because he gave funny confessionals, while JT can be transformed in the new Rupert Brendan was only about the Exile Alliance and his fight' with Coach. "Alpha male contest". Taj got a better recap than him, but in the regular episodes she's looking too much as a distraction. I don't feel safe to eliminate her yet, though. Sydney and Joe got excellent insights into their games. I think one of them will be the next boot. Debbie was used for narrative purposes. Someone noticed the use of animal imagery for Tyson and Coach while they were discussing the game? Both were "compared" to two alligators with a villain soundtrack.
fat little fingers		#2356	[-]
Posts: 5969 (03/26/09 10:10 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	One thing I did notice is the huge jump in Stephen support after he got a CP episode and Sierra got another low key one. GC, Stephen moved to my #1 over Sierra because of the dialogue content. To talk solely about the ratings is too generic, especially when discussing the front runners. Ratings can take a back seat to the dialogue, when the dialogue is shaping something significant in the story. The edit went out of its way to make Steven stand out from the other alliance members: Steven was the only member of the Exile Alliance to voice caution and doubt about its usefulness to him. The other three spoke of how confident and impressed they were of its power and eventual success. For me it was a Sesame Street moment. Sing along!! - "...Come on everybody! Which one of these things is not like the others? One of these things is not the same!..."
dennydoylelives		#2357	[-]
Posts: 2789 (03/26/09 10:58 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I haven't followed things as closely as usual this year, but a few general comments on the season. I'm rooting for Sierra, but something in her edit is reminding me of Kenny's edit. I want to be wrong about it, but my gut is telling me that I'm not. There's too much of the plucky underdog turning arrogant when power comes her way to ignore it. Stephen has an interesting edit, but has a distraction/false winner feel to it. I can see him in the final episode, but right now, he has too many paths to the final. Storytelling-wise, this makes more sense for either explaining jury bitterness towards him when he loses, or explaining a last minute boot prior to F2/F3 with at least one juror pointing to him as the person who should be sitting in front of the jury, than it would to explain his win. (Sorry for the run-on.) Errinn is going to be pivotal, but I don't see a win, unless it's Morasca-like. JT reminds me of that narrator from Guatemala, Brandon(?) or Austin from Terry Island. Joe and Debbie are non-entities. Coach has been edited as an incompetent fool. He isn't winning. Tyson could very well turn into what they hoped Greg Buis would bring to the show. I wouldn't dismiss his chances completely, even though I think he's more comic relief than winner material. Taj is a distraction. Brendan could very well be this year's Marcus. The numbers probably say he's a major contender, but his story is way too vacuous for winning. But maybe he's just a vacuous Aras-male. That leaves Sydney. No, not really. A combined 4 visibility in the first 3 episodes might be just a little too little of a first impression for a winner's edit. So, we have another outcast twist and Carolina's boobs stage a remarkable comeback. Or not.
Green Coffee		#2358	[-]
Posts: 209 (03/26/09 12:19 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Oowatanite wrote: Green Coffee wrote: I've deliberately avoided participating for the longest time. So much hostility recently. Oh, and Followed directly by: Considering all of the shit the Shamrocks have received just for having Erinn in our top three, we have plenty of reason to gloat when Erinn winns. is so hilariously appropriate. Boo hoo! ppl dun liek our fanclub t.ears! awaits next response indicating that Edgic is SERIOUS. BUSINESS. for a certain someone
Green Coffee		#2359	[-]
Posts: 210 (03/26/09 12:24 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	fat little fingers wrote: One thing I did notice is the huge jump in Stephen support after he got a CP episode and Sierra got another low key one. GC, Stephen moved to my #1 over Sierra because of the dialogue content. To talk solely about the ratings is too generic, especially when discussing the front runners. Ratings can take a back seat to the dialogue, when the dialogue is shaping something significant in the story. The edit went out of its way to make Steven stand out from the other alliance members: Steven was the only member of the Exile Alliance to voice caution and doubt about its usefulness to him. The other three spoke of how confident and impressed they were of its power and eventual success. For me it was a Sesame Street moment. Sing along!! - "...Come on everybody! Which one of these things is not like the others? One of these things is not the same!..." I still think all of that has merit, as well. There is more to why Stephen is a contender besides just CP at the same time Sierra is getting UTRs and I'm not suggesting that it's the ONLY reason he is rising in stock for a lot of people (me included). However, it was just an interesting trend I noticed when looking back on previous charts during Phoenix's discussion of 4 types of winners. When people get CPs, their stock tends to rise. This happens especially late in the season, usually, where every CP episode is followed by some speculation about that person winning, despite consistent frontrunner support throughout.
Jedijake		#2360	[-]
Posts: 5567 (03/26/09 12:32 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd have a photographic memory but it was never developed. Remove this ad Have winners traditionally gotten a big recap episode? Was there even a recap last season? I don't remember. If so, what kind of edit did Bob get? I know there wasn't one during FvsF, but what about China, Fiji, Cook, and Panama (since those had pretty obvious winners)? What kinds of edits did Todd, Earl, Yul, and Aras get during their seasons' recaps?

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins