S18 ~ Episode 6 ~ "One of Those 'Coach Moments'"

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The Very Insane Shark

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(03/31/09 11:38 AM)

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moyanks wrote:

srvivrfreakevelrich wrote:

moyanks wrote:
So if Erinn makes the merge, I don't know who would go this episode. SF has updated their bootsheet and all of them are either safe or most safe. Except for Sydney who is listed vulnerable. :]

Sydney or Joe. Timbira will win immunity this week, and Taj, Stephen and JT will vote one of the two out, probably Joe

Yes you're right, probably Joe. Great to hear Timbira would win again.

I'm rooting for Timbira wins, if only because Taj can survive another round or two. The next time Timbira attends a pre-merge TC, Brenden is fucked.

A Dying Clown

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(03/31/09 12:21 PM)

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The next time Timbira attends a pre-merge TC, Brenden is fucked.

If you ignore the fact he has an immunity idol

goohst

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(03/31/09 12:43 PM)

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A Dying Clown wrote:

The next time Timbira attends a pre-merge TC, Brenden is fucked.

If you ignore the fact he has an immunity idol

Like he's gonna use that on Debbie

But seriously, the only two people on Timbira who are not known to make the merge are Brendan and Debbie. Coach, Sierra, Tyson, and Erinn have all been seen with clearly buffomaticked or green buffs. If Timbira goes to TC premerge, it would have to be Debbie or Brendan. With the merge right around the corner, Brendan would target Coach or Tyson with the idol. Debbie just isn't a viable target. She's small AND has connections with Sierra. Thus, if Timbira goes to TC, Brendan is in pretty bad shape.

TheEasyOne

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(03/31/09 12:48 PM)

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A Dying Clown wrote:

The next time Timbira attends a pre-merge TC, Brenden is fucked.

If you ignore the fact he has an immunity idol

True but say Brendan is oblivious to the fact there is some scheming going on behind his back (esp. when he's at exile all the time)?

All Coach needed to do was to get Brendan/Sierra to vote Erinn and have himself, merhag, Tyson vote for Brendan and Erinn would vote for Coach. 3-2-1. But he's not exactly a genius or a Cirie...so it wouldn't happen.

kenc333

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(03/31/09 5:36 PM)

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Brendan's gotta make at least the jury...

None of the pre-jurors had an idea about the exile alliance, and Jerry didn't know that Brendan found the idol until he watched the show. That'd seem like something Brendan would tell people about.

Also in a recent preview, Probst says that an idol comes into play, which likely is on Timbira's side, otherwise it'd be Brendan's idol, which would just guarantee him safety. If Brendan were really blindsided with the idol, the editors would probably be constantly reminding us he had it in the previews/recaps too... kinda like S15 James and S16 Ozzy... those idols were mentioned in every episode, whereas they've mentioned Brendan's idol in one 'previously on..' segment (not even the episode after he found it) and he got 1 sentence on it in the quick recap at the beginning of last week's recap..('I have the idol')

ZeWish

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(03/31/09 6:05 PM)

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in one of the previews, Probst mentions the idol coming into play and they show someone holding the idol. You can only really see that the person holding them has light blue shorts on and Brendan is the only one that I know to have the color of boxer shorts. it points to Timbira but I could see if he just uses it to get Erinn on board with him and Sierra.

Mikester

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(03/31/09 7:15 PM)

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Probst could just be talking about Taj's fake idol and the fact that Stephen/JT consider booting Taj to keep the real idol for themselves. Does "coming into play" = "being used at TC?"

JT Rocks

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(03/31/09 9:36 PM)

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^
No. I'm leaning towards Brendan/Sierra using the idol to get Erinn or even Debbie on board with them.

That or one of Sydney/Joe found Taj's fake idol.

LKMOSCAR

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(04/01/09 1:52 PM)

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Betrayal of the Exile Alliance

Apples. It All Comes Down to the Biting of the Apple

Oowatanite

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(04/01/09 1:57 PM)

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LKMOSCAR wrote:

Betrayal of the Exile Alliance

Apples. It All Comes Down to the Biting of the Apple

I've got it !

Which previous player was the first to mention the "apple" metaphor ? James in China, who was booted while in the possession of two idols.

So long Stephen, in a blindside, while in possession of the HII.

kenc333

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(04/01/09 2:18 PM)

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If Stephen really did get blindsided this episode (I don't think it'll happen just because of the edit he's been getting), I suppose that Taj could recruit JT as the new member of the exile alliance, explaining how the two of them are in the F4. Sierra and Brendan could still be in it by the end, but I'm guessing they get split up before the F4 too.

MrMax34

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(04/01/09 2:33 PM)

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if Stephen goes, taking the HII with him, Taj can just go get it after they re-hide it so that would work out well for her.

srvivrfreakevelrich

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(04/01/09 2:42 PM)

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MrMax34 wrote:
if Stephen goes, taking the HII with him, Taj can just go get it after they re-hide it so that would work out well for her.

but they probably wouldnt put it in the same spot

tullfan2

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(04/01/09 3:30 PM)

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MrMax34 wrote:
if Stephen goes, taking the HII with him, Taj can just go get it after they re-hide it so that would work out well for her.

Not true. When there are 2 idols, the idols don't get rehidden to a different location until both idols are either played or removed from the game via blindside. They can't give out 2 different sets of clues. However, a new idol will be rehidden once the trimes merge.

cindidindi76

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(04/01/09 3:31 PM)

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LKMOSCAR wrote:

Betrayal of the Exile Alliance

Apples. It All Comes Down to the Biting of the Apple

Soo...JT betrays them?

tullfan2

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(04/01/09 3:41 PM)

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Oowatanite wrote:

LKMOSCAR wrote:

Betrayal of the Exile Alliance

Apples. It All Comes Down to the Biting of the Apple

I've got it !

Which previous player was the first to mention the "apple" metaphor ? James in China, who was booted while in the possession of two idols.

So long Stephen, in a blindside, while in possession of the HII.

Possibly the betrayal of the EI alliance doesn't happen in the next episode. In the preview, Probst said that an idol is played in the next episode and that he loves when the idol is played. It doesn't sound like he is saying that the fake idol that Taj makes gets played. I think that either Joe or Sydney are exiled. Taj makes a fake idol and puts in in the back of the statue at tree mail. The exilee finds the fake idol and schemes to have Taj voted out as he/she is now confident that Taj doesn't have the HII. Stephen gives the idol back to Taj, as he can't go through with betraying her, and she plays it and sends the exilee to Loser Lodge. This plan guarantees that Taj makes the merger (unless it is delayed) regardless of how JT votes.

goohst

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(04/01/09 4:53 PM)

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Just some spec on my part... we know that Erinn goes to Exile. It's looking like Jalapao wins and they pick Erinn to go. Now, Erinn works as a stylist. A model like Sydney makes more sense logically for Erinn's pick than Joe... Erinn said she would be able to work best with the females because that is who she works with normally. I'm gonna guess that Sydney goes to Exile with Erinn.

Elaborating a little bit further, Erinn said she would be jumping ship at the merge because she had no connections. If Sydney came back to camp and told JT/Stephen that Erinn would work with them, Stephen could be merge planning. Sydney would appear to be the best situated character in the Jalapao tribe. She would have Joe and Erinn working for her in a guaranteed alliance of 5, giving her the majority, and wouldn't be targeted at the merge. Stephen would show JT the idol to get him to target Joe. In their discussions, they'd talk about whether a loyal ally or sole possession of an idol is more important, hence the whole "boot Taj?" preview talk we know is false.

PREDICTIONS:
11th place: With the merge coming, Joe leaves.

10th place: A broad coalition of Erinn, Sydney, Taj, JT, Stephen, Brendan, and Sierra vote out Tyson as a jury and challenge threat.
1st juror: JT, Sydney, Stephen, and Erinn approach Coach and Debbie to take out Brendan. Blindside.

From here, spoilers are fuzzy. All of the characters remaining have spoilers that place them in or near the finals. My guesses.

2nd juror: Coach, Debbie, and Sierra join up as the new "outsiders". JT and Stephen join up and vote out Sydney- a la Stephen's fear of Sydney. Blindside.
3rd juror: Coach, Debbie, Sierra, and Erinn join up along tribal lines. JT wins immunity. They vote out Stephen. Blindside.
4th juror: Coach, Debbie, Sierra, and Erinn look to be dominant at this point. Taj either gives JT the idol or JT wins immunity. Erinn is recruited. Either way, the idol is used. Sierra goes, and her comment about being the strongest girl is proven true (stronger than Coach and Debbie at least

). Blindside.
5th juror: JT, Taj and Erinn hold the game in their hands. Coach goes in a Randy/Roger episode. Indisputably not blindside.
6th juror: JT wins immunity. Debbie goes. Not blindside.
7th juror: JT wins immunity. Taj goes. Blindside edit.

JT/Erinn F2. JT wins.

Last Edited By: goohst 04/01/09 5:36 PM. Edited 1 times.

Heliox

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(04/01/09 5:32 PM)

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...Probst said that an idol is played in the next episode...

No, he says the idol comes into play, he does not say it gets played. Coming into play can mean many things, like using a fake idol, faking that you have or don't have an idol for TC...etc.

That pic with Taj/JT and Stephen makes me think it is less likely that Stephen is backstabbed here.
I wonder what JT thinks of the cross tribal alliance. I think I would think it would be advantageous to keep your allies that have a connection to the other side, especially if you are going into a merge with fewer numbers. I can't see Taj ridding herself of Stephen, and it would be dumb of JT to anger Taj when she may have connections in Timbira and can just float over there.

I love the HII, it complicates gameplay so deliciously.

chitaboy14

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(04/01/09 5:42 PM)

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crzypunk2004 wrote:
F10 so far

Erinn (Seen with Green Buff)
Sierra (Green buff)
Coach (Green buff)
JT= F4??? (Seen in supposedly the f4 spider challenge)
Taj= F4??? (Seen in supposedly the F4 spider challenge)

Is that everyone?

Sorry i haven't been around sucks so much lately; when was this released? do you mind re posting the link,?

chitaboy14

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(04/01/09 5:47 PM)

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goohst wrote:
Just some spec on my part... we know that Erinn goes to Exile. It's looking like Jalapao wins and they pick Erinn to go. Now, Erinn works as a stylist. A model like Sydney makes more sense logically for Erinn's pick than Joe... Erinn said she would be able to work best with the females because that is who she works with normally. I'm gonna guess that Sydney goes to Exile with Erinn.

Elaborating a little bit further, Erinn said she would be jumping ship at the merge because she had no connections. If Sydney came back to camp and told JT/Stephen that Erinn would work with them, Stephen could be merge planning. Sydney would appear to be the best situated character in the Jalapao tribe. She would have Joe and Erinn working for her in a guaranteed alliance of 5, giving her the majority, and wouldn't be targeted at the merge. Stephen would show JT the idol to get him to target Joe. In their discussions, they'd talk about whether a loyal ally or sole possession of an idol is more important, hence the whole "boot Taj?" preview talk we know is false.

PREDICTIONS:
11th place: With the merge coming, Joe leaves.

10th place: A broad coalition of Erinn, Sydney, Taj, JT, Stephen, Brendan, and Sierra vote out Tyson as a jury and challenge threat.
1st juror: JT, Sydney, Stephen, and Erinn approach Coach and Debbie to take out Brendan. Blindside.

From here, spoilers are fuzzy. All of the characters remaining have spoilers that place them in or near the finals. My guesses.

2nd juror: Coach, Debbie, and Sierra join up as the new "outsiders". JT and Stephen join up and vote out Sydney- a la Stephen's fear of Sydney. Blindside.
3rd juror: Coach, Debbie, Sierra, and Erinn join up along tribal lines. JT wins immunity. They vote out Stephen. Blindside.
4th juror: Coach, Debbie, Sierra, and Erinn look to be dominant at this point. Taj either gives JT the idol or JT wins immunity. Erinn is recruited. Either way, the idol is used. Sierra goes, and her comment about being the strongest girl is proven true (stronger than Coach and Debbie at least ). Blindside.
5th juror: JT, Taj and Erinn hold the game in their hands. Coach goes in a Randy/Roger episode. Indisputably not blindside.
6th juror: JT wins immunity. Debbie goes. Not blindside.
7th juror: JT wins immunity. Taj goes. Blindside edit.

JT/Erinn F2. JT wins.

I'm really loving your speculation for the winner =]

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S18 ~ Episode 6 ~ "One of Those 'Coach Moments'"

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