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Ratings after 1st Watch

Timbira

At one point, I was absolutely convinced that the winner would be coming from Timbira, but after a string of three relatively UTR episodes for the entire tribe, despite not attending tribal council, it appears that this tribe may not comprise the majority of the endgamers as once thought, although several of them will be crucial to the game and might still win.

Coach: MORN2
The entire scene about the beans was very negative for Coach. Coach is the ultimate fool in this game, but Brendan did point out usefullness in Coach's predictability. Although coach has 0 chance of winning, this might show how Coach survives for a few rounds until his prediciatbility and arrogance become too much of a problem for others to keep him around. Might this suggest Tyson being booted first as he is an unpredictable player?

Brendan: MOR2
Brendan still has a shot at winning, but that shot has been extremely slim ever since his Cirie-esque opening episode. Brendan has shown himself as a crucial member of the Exile Alliance. Going into the merge, Brendan will be a huge player who might switch up the game, but he has been identified as a player suggesting that he might be the only one of the Exile Alliance to not reach the end game.

Debra: UTR1
The ultimate tourist in the game. Her edit has been fluff since day 1 (or rather episode 2 due to a lack of any visibility in episode 1) She will most likely have little effect on the game except as a minor positive character booted after Coach. She will most likely also vote with Coach on the jury.

Erinn: MOR2
Despite all the talk about Erinn's demise as a contender, she still has a huge shot at this. This episode she discussed a merge scenario, revealed to us that she has no other alliances (which explains a lack of strategic talk and the playing up of her role as the outsider) Her tie with Joe suggests a possible vote for her on the jury, and it might come into play next episode when Joe will most likely be booted. Erinn's talk on the hidden immunity idol and the strength a cross alliance tribe would have suggests that the Exile Alliance will dominate during the merge. Still the fact that Erinn had the idea of the cross tribal alliance suggests that she might be able to outlast it. She's almost guranteed to outlast the power structure on Timbira, but they will most likely not vote for her. As others have stated, she looks like either a final 2 loser, or a final survivor of those uninvolved in the Exile Alliance + JT, but she has an outside shot at winning.

Sierra: UTR1
Another under the radar episode for Sierra, but this one lacked depth. she has replaced Erinn as the major protaganist against Coach, setting up the fact that she will outlast him. She may win, as she hasn't attended tribal council, but if she lacks a huge merge episode, she is done.

Tyson: UTR1
This episode nearly solidified his role as a mere distraction. He was almost invisible, except for his challenge prowess. He might outsurvive Coach, but right now his chances of making top 4 or 5 are slim.


Jalapao

Jalapao, after three straight tribal councils, has become dominant in airtime. Taj, JT, and Stephen will all play a cruical role in this game, and any of them could possibly win (with Stephen having by far the greatest odds of the three)

Joe: MOR5
Joe was almost negative for his terrible prediction in regards to Sydney and his ignorance when it came to protecting Sydney at the vote as well as the idol. He's not sticking around long, but his tie with Erinn suggests some further tie, but right now he's looking like a fake idol boot ala Jamie.

JT: CP5
JT was huge this episode. He failed at both challenges, but yet this was avoided except for his own comments on the challenge. He's been shown as reflective, but also as a pawn in the Stephen-Taj-JT triad. He is unaware of the cross tribe alliance, and fell for Taj's act revolving around the idol. He is extremely trusting, and although he debated booting Taj, was it ever in doubt who would leave? Joe with his hurt leg had a bigger shot at leaving then Taj. That was just for dramatic effect when Sydney left. I feel like JT may go far, but he's almost becoming super human, and although his tie with Stephen has been emphasized, I just don't see JT winning, especially with Coach's comments on taking the biggest threats to the end.

Stephen: CP4
Stephen is now my number 1 contender. He is thoughful, not over the top, and he has kept his options open. If anyone takes down the Exile Alliance, it will be Stephen himself. He doesn't fully trust Taj or JT and has been shown as using them. He is appearing the brightest of the three. Right now after two huge episodes, Stephen is either going out ala Rob C or Cirie, or he's winning this thing. Still, his slight arrogance in episodes past worries me.

Sydney: MOR2
The first two minutes told us she was going. she was a victim of numbers and didn't do all that much too stay. Too bad the recap showed us that she was at least a decent character with an arc that defintely disproved her first impressions. The challenge was positive for her though.

Taj: CP4
The audience may think she almost got booted, but right now she's solid on her tribe. The vote revealed that crtoss tribe relationships are going to destroy anyone without them. This suggests that Tyson, Coach, Debra, and even JT are in trouble as they lack these relationships. Still JT has a higher chance thanks to his bond with Stephen, Taj, and Joe, whereas Debra, Coach, and Tyson have been exposed as an alliance of three likely to be taken out. Taj is a distraction, but despite a 4 in visibility, she was reltaively quiet compared to the three men on her tribe. She's looking like an endgamer as she survived to the merge, just as she's been trying to do all game so far.


Contenders
1. Stephen
2. Sierra
3. Erinn
4. JT
5. Brendan

Almost Eliminated
6. Taj
7. Tyson

Done
8. Joe
9. Coach
10. Debra