S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins - Survivor Speculation - Spoiler Related - Survivor Sucks

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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ncassaro		#4501	[-]
Posts: 1099 (05/08/09 6:43 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	This thread is getting really good. JT/Stephen are not our final two. If they were, their duo would be more hidden. See Parvati and Amanda. After the merge, Amanda was edited to be out of the loop, the 5th woman on the totem pole, when really that wasn't true at all. Then she was edited to be unbeatable in the F3.... which also proved untrue! I think a combination of JT/Stephen and Erinn is our F2, with one of the boys winning. It will be Stephen who wins most likely, and Erinn winds up getting Tyson's vote to win, explaining her weird connection to him pre-merge.
Phoenix1269		#4502	[-]
Posts: 649 (05/08/09 6:46 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Not sure that Erinn's vis numbers being in the same ball park as Danni is a good thing this season. Danni had Stepha-me to deal with as well as 18 players. Tina and Sandra... both winners in 16 player seasons (even having Colby & Rupert/JFP to contend with) had much better Vis Numbers. Amber & Parvati's are pretty similar and they both had much-loved returning players in their seasons. As far as copmaring previous winners to E11 visibility based out of 16... oddly... Stephen's, Taj's & Coach's numbers match the visibilty of a Previous winner at this stage. Both Steven and Coach have a bit of cluster which supports thier positions. JT is still in the ball park of Tom, but Tom is from a 18/20 player year... Anyways.... i feel like comparing Erinn to the likes of Bob and Danni is wrong... by this stage, they both had a pretty big upswing in content and visibility. Erinn is too ignored, with no compments on any of the goings on. I feel like if she did truly win... we would have had more comments from her about how Steven & JT are running the game and what she thought of certain votes, etc... We would hear about her position more. Am i the only one who thinks Coach is in the final 2? I really feel like he is our F2 loser. He has way too many little moments and clashes (and connections) with various people to not have that come back. Maybe Coach is the one who goes on an immunity run! THAT would be ironic! I also have been feeling like the JT/Stephen thing has been played up because whichever of the leaves, it is not by the others hand. Whether it is an accident/injury, or a major blindside...i really feel like the golden editing is becuase they do stay true to each other, and the other wins "for them." I could be wrong and untrustworthy JT does blindside Stephen, or vice versa, but it doesn't feel that way to me. Lastly... i feel like the EA is the second coming of the Onion Alliance. I think getting real mentioned this as well.... but.... if you consider the EA as Bren/Taj/Sierra/Stephen... then these 4 would have to be together on the jury to vote. JT was not part of the EA-distraction, he was part of the Pao3 and only briefly mentioned with that group by Brendan before Brendan got voted out. Since the focus of the EA was so specific about WHO was included... that is partly why i feel like it is Stephen that is on the jury. for the EA to = Onion, then all 4 of the original EA must be on the jury.
ncassaro		#4503	[-]
Posts: 1101 (05/08/09 6:52 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Erinn is unlike Danni/Bob in that she had a story, and she had visibility pre-merge. Danni/Bob were on the upswing right now while Erinn is steady, but if Erinn won I still say it'd be more of a traditional winner's edit than Danni/Bob because she has been there the whole time.
DeadNotSlipping		#4504	[-]
Posts: 19 (05/08/09 7:00 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Oowatanite wrote: And DNS, the doubt being given to Erinn in the preview is GOOD for her edgically. The severe lack of doubt for Stephen and JT is one of the biggest problems for them edgically. Yeah, I agree. I just meant that big social blunders seem to get a lot of OTT ratings, which would look really weird on Erinn. I think she'll probably be mostly CP, though. And yeah, the lack of doubt is getting very problematic for Stephen and JT. No one is MENTIONING JT not having immunity. They must have at least mentioned it in confessionals. We also know from interviews that there was a female alliance in the making for like five minutes, which is all you need for effective doubt. I think that if it rolls around once - great for Erinn. If it rolls around twice - great for Stephen. It can't be a smooth sailing. Either that or the editors started using meta-doubt, in which you go "They wouldn't show it like that if that WAS the case, would they?", but I don't think they ever did that before.
twisted1982		#4505	[-]
Posts: 189 (05/08/09 7:06 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	ncassaro wrote: This thread is getting really good. JT/Stephen are not our final two. If they were, their duo would be more hidden. See Parvati and Amanda. After the merge, Amanda was edited to be out of the loop, the 5th woman on the totem pole, when really that wasn't true at all. Then she was edited to be unbeatable in the F3.... which also proved untrue! I think a combination of JT/Stephen and Erinn is our F2, with one of the boys winning. It will be Stephen who wins most likely, and Erinn winds up getting Tyson's vote to win, explaining her weird connection to him pre-merge. I totally see this scenario and I also see Sierra voting for Erinn, with the last minute friendship thing going on. It maybe a stretch but I think that JT goes at 4th via fire challenge tie-breaker. We've seen him unable to start fire at least twice already. Foreshadowing?
9RedWing19		#4506	[-]
Posts: 2543 (05/08/09 7:18 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Phoenix: thanks for posting the data. Not sure if the number of players in a season is significant - I've always tried to normalize each episode so that the average contestant has a 3 visibility (ie total visibility count for an episode = # contestants times 3). IIRC, Warrior does this also, so we should be able to compare winners regardless of how many contestants a particular season had. Edited to add: looking at the F5, Erinn has the least cumulative visibility (by a lot). At this stage of the game, post-ASS, the winner has never been last in cumulative visibility (which from a story-telling point of view is perfectly logical). Even with Coach as a distraction, it is a refreshing change to have each member of the F5 with a well developed storyline. Last Edited By: 9RedWing19 05/08/09 7:27 PM. Edited 1 times.
cantthinkofaname		#4507	[-]
Posts: 1415 (05/08/09 7:22 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I LUV TIJUANA wrote: I'm surprised Stephen is getting P's. He came off pretty negative to me with his Debbie imitation and the arrogance, but I suppose it's balanced out by the positive family stuff. I'm surprised at Debbie getting P's. I thought we were supposed to think she was annoying.
Die Apokalyptischen Reiter		#4508	[-]
Posts: 1524 (05/08/09 7:28 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	cantthinkofaname wrote: I'm surprised at Debbie getting P's. I thought we were supposed to think she was annoying. She got N last week, maybe two weeks in a row is too much? :shrug
fat little fingers		#4509	[-]
Posts: 6169 (05/08/09 7:43 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Erinn - "I know that there is no way I can win this game by just hanging out and letting other people make my decision" I'm… pretty sure she is not talking about winning the game of life by making big moves, on her own, to improve herself as a person. So huh? DNS, you make great arguments and I think there's a good chance of Stephen's F-2 partner being Erinn. Okay, so I waffle on the F-2. It's strictly a shot in the dark as far as Edgic goes. But, I made my Edgic choice at the merge and for more than just bragging rights, (if I'm right, which is 50% of the time, lol). Edgic should be able to identify the winner, (if it's not a season like Gabon or Guatemala), by the merge. At least, all the clues should be there by then. In fact, ep2 through to the merge should simply help develop and highlight the winner clue that should be in the first episode. Erinn's first Ep1 comment was a total misread of Tyson as far as it related to her. Tyson's first Ep1 comment dramatically illustrated that. Erinn's second confessional tells us that she's totally out of her element, "What am I doing out here!?..." In the last two episodes she has told us about her triumph over her original challenge (ie., girlie-girl in obnoxious grungeland.) It's a great story, but it reflects on something other than the goal of winning and more on par with Cirie's first season edit. Cirie also, came close and was a popular character who had lots of viewers cheering for her. Granted, Erinn did mention in Ep9 that she was going to be the big liar-backstabber, "...I am the one that's gonna turn this all on its head...Guilty as charged!" But, Tyson left that TC, which seems the likely application of Erinn's comment. She was the subject of so many of his early confessionals. Or she's the one who turns the JT-Stephen lock on the f-2 on its head. If I'm wrong, I'll be surprised, it won't be the first time. But, like I said, I'm on Edgic autopilot and post-merge "great edits" don't matter until my pick is gone. So..... Go Stephorino!!
Jedijake		#4510	[-]
Posts: 5668 (05/08/09 7:49 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Is there really any way, from editing, to tell whether Stephen or JT will win? To me, it's just about an even draw between the two. I will, for a moment, say that Stephen will win due to the "first impressions" thing and the fire he made on exile island, as well as the fact that he was part of the EA, not to mention the fact that he was included in the fist sequence of the show. Then there's the whole JT love thing that everyone seems to have and the fact that he's had quite a bit more doubt (if you can call it that), making his edit a bit more complex. My gut would go with Stephen, but as we've seen, it's not a done deal. I just think they've forced the first impression thing and he was included so that puts him on top more than anything that has been going on lately.
colleenlover		#4511	[-]
Posts: 9244 (05/08/09 8:15 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Jedi, to me there's no way to tell. I'm at the end of all I can deduce. I'm at the Ozzy/Yul thing -it's flip a coin. If others can post an argument of one over the other, it would be pretty hard to convince me. Both is equally justifable in what I can deduce in an editor/storyteller's logic. Personally, I think they should go back to Survivor where almost everyone was a contender based on their edit -that's how it should be -look at Borneo's final ten and you could make a strong case for all of them. That's exciting and how Agatha Christie would span a mystery. I think JT has had way too much underlined moments for it not to be recalled in the q&a portion. So if it's NOT JT and Stephen in the final two, I'm actually leaning towards JT being one of the two. (The handshake; Coach's scenes with JT over Stephen; stealing the beans; the tooth; JT being edited as the more trusting one -who maybe wises up; the way the finding of the hidden idol was done; his whole, "I never win anything" right before the merge. Stephen's "it could be you" re: immunity runs... He's come a long way from me forgetting his name -TJ?
Jedijake		#4512	[-]
Posts: 5670 (05/08/09 8:45 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think this is harder than Yul/Ozzy. After the merge, Ozzy was horribly neglected. Both Stephen and JT's stories have flown through the roof (especially JT) after the merge.
pushingjate		#4513	[-]
Posts: 2890 (05/08/09 9:06 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Erinn being compared to Danni/Bob is laughable, considering Erinn actually knows the workings of the game and has been visible throughout the game. Even if she had the least amount of confessionals or none at all, people still knew she was there.
RobVanStratus		#4514	[-]
Posts: 8169 (05/08/09 9:13 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Erinn does not know the workings of the game. She's been shown to be a clueless bystander the entire time. She is only around because Jerry got sick. If Jerry stays healthy, Erinn is dumped 3rd and the game changes dramatically. On top of that, pre-merge she was at the bottom of the totem pole at Timbira, shown not knowing what she is doing, especially with her manipulated friendship with Candace. If she wins, why show her pre-merge making poor decisions like allying with an overbearing person that is kicked out second? She looks like a complete fool this whole game, completely out of her element. And that is her story, a fool out of their element, but learning to survive in the elements. She got her big moment about surviving exile in the rain without fire and that's the end of her story. She came from being a hairdresser completely lost in the jungle, to being able to survive on her own. Just a story of personal growth, ala Cirie/Kenny in recent seasons. She's done at 4 and if Coach wins Immunity, she's done at 5.
ncassaro		#4515	[-]
Posts: 1102 (05/08/09 9:17 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	pushingjate wrote: Erinn being compared to Danni/Bob is laughable, considering Erinn actually knows the workings of the game and has been visible throughout the game. Even if she had the least amount of confessionals or none at all, people still knew she was there. I think Danni knew the game for sure, and played a terrific social game (though she did benefit from Rafe's self-righteousness and Steph's stupidity.) Bob winning was a total fluke. Though this is going off topic, because we were talking about the Danni/Bob style winner edit, which Erinn has NOT gotten.
pushingjate		#4516	[-]
Posts: 2891 (05/08/09 9:18 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: I think I've been far from hostile about Erinn until recently. It's like c'mon, it's almost finale week and her edit still sucks. I think her edit is worse than any previous winner--including Danni and Bob. I can tell people to shut up if I want. I've spent the entire season proving why Erinn doesn't win, which she won't. I'm getting tired of it already, especially since edgic is about pinpointing the winner and so many posts are about how Erinn could win when she clearly will not. She is edgically eliminated, in my mind. Not complex enough at all, low visibility pre and post merge, and zero winner-like confessionals. There are so many opportunities in the merge to give her a larger edit, and to say she's not apart of the story is ridiculous when there are only several people left. astro gave Erinn CP this episode? I hate how when people think someone can win, they jump to give them a CP at the slightest comment, and when there is someone CP but they don't think they can win, they give them MOR or OTT. If someone is MOR, CP, or OTT, give them the rating they are and then we can adjust the rules of a winner accordingly. Forced ratings in order for them to look "winner-y" are more harmful than anything else. Yeah, just like you spent last season saying that Bob wouldn't win. If edgic had existed during Australia, Tina would have been ruled out. Vecepia also would have been ruled out. Blake, the fact remains, you're a complete and utter dumbass. When people edit this show, they don't have to showcase the winner in any certain light. They have to make the boot for that episode make sense and make the viewers understand why that person was voted out. Most of the winners of Survivor have completely different edits from others-some are over the top, some under the radar, some boring. To rule out Erinn on the basis that she "has no story" is laughable given past winners. Thanks for proving what a complete and utter dumbass you truly are.
pushingjate		#4517	[-]
Posts: 2892 (05/08/09 9:26 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	RobVanStratus wrote: Erinn does not know the workings of the game. She's been shown to be a clueless bystander the entire time. She is only around because Jerry got sick. If Jerry stays healthy, Erinn is dumped 3rd and the game changes dramatically. She knows the game of Survivor and how it works. That's why she voted Candace out because she knew shed be in even worse shit if she didn't. Even with Jerry sick, they could have booted Erinn and forced Jerry to stay a la Shawna in Amazon. On top of that, pre-merge she was at the bottom of the totem pole at Timbira, shown not knowing what she is doing, especially with her manipulated friendship with Candace. Erinn actually cemented herself into the Tyson/Debbie/Coach clique when Timbira went on their winning streak. Check out the insider clips. Coach/Tyson wanted to take Sierra out had they lost Immunity, and possibly Brendan because they feared him in the future.
Seacrest22		#4518	[-]
Posts: 306 (05/08/09 9:35 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	pushingjate wrote: When people edit this show, they don't have to showcase the winner in any certain light. They have to make the boot for that episode make sense and make the viewers understand why that person was voted out. Most of the winners of Survivor have completely different edits from others-some are over the top, some under the radar, some boring. lol Then why does this thread even exist? Let's turn it into a sports or music discussion thread instead. You're basically admitting that there's no such thing as a winner's edit on this show. So essentially it's just a guessing game and if someone happens to stumble on the correct winner pick in a given season, it's just a coincidence.
McPhever224		#4519	[-]
Posts: 254 (05/08/09 9:42 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	FORZA Coach - MORN3 Debbie - CPM4 Erinn - MORP2 J.T. - MOR4 Stephen - CPP3 Taj - OTTPP3 (She deserves the PP!!!!) Winners 1. Stephen 2. Erinn
RobVanStratus		#4520	[-]
Posts: 8170 (05/08/09 9:44 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	pushingjate wrote: RobVanStratus wrote: Erinn does not know the workings of the game. She's been shown to be a clueless bystander the entire time. She is only around because Jerry got sick. If Jerry stays healthy, Erinn is dumped 3rd and the game changes dramatically. She knows the game of Survivor and how it works. That's why she voted Candace out because she knew shed be in even worse shit if she didn't. Even with Jerry sick, they could have booted Erinn and forced Jerry to stay a la Shawna in Amazon. On top of that, pre-merge she was at the bottom of the totem pole at Timbira, shown not knowing what she is doing, especially with her manipulated friendship with Candace. Erinn actually cemented herself into the Tyson/Debbie/Coach clique when Timbira went on their winning streak. Check out the insider clips. Coach/Tyson wanted to take Sierra out had they lost Immunity, and possibly Brendan because they feared him in the future. Sierra was seen as weaker and like you said, Brendan was seen as a threat in the future. Coach/Debbie/Tyson didn't need Erin's vote with the group that was left, all they had to do was tell Sierra/Brendan that Erinn is getting the vote, those two vote for her, Erinn votes for someone else like Coach, and the other 3 vote for Brendan. Erinn is out of the loop and that's why she has gone to Jalapao to get to 4th place, settling for that as her best unless she can win Immunity. She's a clueless player and she hasn't been shown to make any moves. All her moves are already made by everyone else and she tags along. She's not going to get support from Timbira on the jury with joining Jalapao to vote them off.

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins