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Final Predictions

I might want to join in on the communal pity parties of the future, so I'll make my prediction:

I do think both Stephen and Erinn can win (I've had them in my top 3, along with Sierra, since episode 1. It's not like I just picked them at F6), but I can narrow my prediction down in other ways;

JT is not in the F2, Erinn has to be in the F2, Taj can't win. Stephen has to betray JT.

That means Stephen can win against Erinn, Erinn can win against Stephen (if she does something remarkably spectacular) or against Taj (if she manages to get to F2 with Taj). The "Stephen wins against Erinn" is the one I'd put my money on, but the other two can happen.

I've been pretty consistent with this since about episode 9, so I feel like it's a valid prediction. If anyone thinks it isn't, then… well… I'll try to enjoy it less if I'm right or something. I don't know. That's what I see happening.

If I'm wrong about any of these things, which is kind of very likely (Obvious example being Stephen\JT, but also Stephen\Taj or JT\Erinn), then I was wrong this season. That's okay okay, too.

Stephen and JT. Again.

Stephen and JT have been, like, an Exile Alliance redux. I refuse to believe there was no material from which to make the conclusion of this game, if it is indeed a Stephen\JT F2, a more exiting one. The Stephen\JT story, in and of itself, is a pretty great one. You know what's the fastest way to kill a story about two people going to F2 together against the odds? Have everyone love them tremendously, don't put them in any danger ever, and show them saying they are in Complete Control of the Game for three consecutive episodes.

I've heard talk about how their extreme lack of doubt (is there an opposite of doubt? I'll go with certainty. JT and Stephen, as an alliance, have too much certainty) is okay, because at merge there were these three poor Jalapao's who didn't stand a chance. That was true for, at best, 35 minutes of air time - from the IC loss at the Sydney boot episode until the "Vote-Off-Brendan Alliance" was formed one episode later. That's roughly two acts. By episode 9 most players have been shown eating out of JT's hand, and we have heard at least once in episodes 10, 11 and 12 that JT and Stephen are, like, so in control of this game it's not even funny. No one is even trying to vote them off! They just accept their fate! How Amazing! And that has been the story for the past four episodes, which are roughly 165 minutes of air time. Which is more then 35, by a lot.

Doubt for half an episode cannot stretch through 4 episoded in which you are constantly told "Stephen and JT have this thing in da bag", often by Stephen and JT. Well, mostly JT.

Erinn

Still might win. This is not a sneaky way to increase my chances, and I think I've given enough reasons for this through out the season to make it at the very least an understandable choice.

But it's probably Stephen.