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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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ncassaro		#5101	[-]
Posts: 1214 (05/18/09 12:11 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Why did Stephen become such a big contender? Because he was in this exile alliance that we all thought was gonna be such a big deal post-merge. By the time it happened, we forgot why we started bandwagoning on him in the first place. Game logic got in the way, unfortunately.
Phoenix1269	MORD Analysis	#5102	[-]
Posts: 674 (05/18/09 12:13 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Just for fun.... FINAL MORDIFF WINNERS RANKINGS (S10 to S18) from lowest to highest 0.47 Aras (1st position / 16) (8 below midpoint) 0.55 Yul (1 / 20) (10 below midpoint) 0.64 Parvati (4 / 18) (6 below midpoint) 1.02 Earl (7/ 19) (3 below of midpoint) 1.03 Danni (10 / 18) (on midpoint / topside) 1.20 Todd (7/ 16) (1 below midpoint) 1.48 Bob (10/18) (on midpoint / topside) 1.64 Tom (12 / 20) (1 above midpoint) midpoint: 1.025 average: 1.004 See original post for winners in their seasons here Trends & Observations Out of 8 Completed Seasons... 1. The AVERAGE MORD of the Winners comes in at 1.004 2. 75% of Winners are NOT the LOWEST MORD. Only 2 Winners (25%) were the LOWEST MORD of their season. Includes only 1 of the 2 MOST STRATEGIC EDITS (Yul) 3. 5 / 8 of Winners (62.5%) are closer to the MIDPOINT for their season than Zero 4. 5 / 8 Winners (62.5%) are lower than the MIDPOINT for their season 5. 5 / 8 (62.5%) Winners are OVER 1.0 including the LOW VISIBLITY winners Danni & Bob 6. 7 / 8 Winners (87.5%) ARE OVER 0.5...including the LAST 5 WINNERS Yul, Earl, Todd, Parvati & Bob. 7. Out of the 9 edits over all 8 seasons to receive less than 0.5 MORD... only 1 was a winner (12.5%), 4 others (37.5%) finished in the F5. 8. 2 / 7 winners are within 0.03 points of the Winner's Midpoint. 9. 2 / 7 winner's fall in the 7th position; another 2 / 7 fall in the 10th position 10. The LOWEST MORD WINNER belongs to ARAS (0.47), The HIGHEST MORD WINNER belongs to Tom (1.64) 11. The LOWEST MORD ever is a tie between Peih-Gee (S15) and Cirie (S16) at 0.40. 12. Only Once has the Final 1 & 2 players' MORDs been side by side... Aras and Danielle. Also the only time the the 2 Lowest MORDs lined up to the Winner & 2nd place. 13. VERY EARLY boots (1st or 2nd) USUALLY have the HIGHEST MORD (6 / 8 seasons) 14. 7/8 seasons the second lowest MORD belongs to a VERY EARLY Jury member or major decoy winner (or F2 loser) or a combination (like Eliza S16 or Marcus) 15. 2 / 8 seasons, the winner was exactly on the midpoint (topside) for their season. An additional 3 / 8 seasons, the winner was within 3 positions from the midpoint. (62.5% of winners fall very close to the midpoint for their season). How does S18 fit???? MORDiff to the beginning of the finalé Sum difference from middle of road for total season 3.09 - Ben Wade 1.96 - Carolina Eastwood 1.91 - Debbie Beebee 1.73 - Sydney Wheeler 1.56 - Tyson Apostol ------------------------------------- MID-RANGE VALUE (1.54) (highest /2) 1.50 - JT Thomas ------------------------------------- MID-POINT (1.31) (highest - lowest /2) 1.11 - Jerry Sims 1.05 - Erinn Lobdell ------------------------------------- MIDDLE POSITION(8/9) 1.00 - Candace Smith 0.84 - Sierra Reed 0.83 - Spencer Duhm 0.71 - Joe Dowdle 0.67 - Taj Johnson-George 0.61 - Brendan Synnott 0.51 - Stephen Fishbach 0.46 - Sandy Burgin Current midpoint: 1.31 - JT is closet @ 0.19 above Current midrange value: 1.54 - JT is closest at 0.04 above 1. The AVERAGE MORD of the Winners comes in at 1.004 JT is far outside of this average. So is 2nd Place (Stephen). 2. 75% of Winners are NOT the LOWEST MORD. Only 2 Winners (25%) were the LOWEST MORD of their season. Includes only 1 of the 2 MOST STRATEGIC EDITS (Yul) JT is not the lowest MORD for S18. 3. 5 / 8 of Winners (62.5%) are closer to the MIDPOINT for their season than Zero JT was the closest player to the midpoint for this season at 0.19 above the midpoint. Of the remaining players Erinn was next at 1.05. 4. 5 / 8 Winners (62.5%) are lower than the MIDPOINT for their season JT is on the upper side of the mid-point for his season. 5. 5 / 8 (62.5%) Winners are OVER 1.0 including the LOW VISIBLITY winners Danni & Bob JT's MORD at E12 was 1.5 6. 7 / 8 Winners (87.5%) ARE OVER 0.5...including the LAST 5 WINNERS Yul, Earl, Todd, Parvati & Bob. JT's MORD at E12 was 1.5 7. Out of the 9 edits over all 8 seasons to receive less than 0.5 MORD... only 1 was a winner (12.5%), 4 others (37.5%) finished in the F5. =/= YES in that JT doesn't fit this, No in that Sandy... the lowest MORD at E12 & fits neither case. * 8. 2 / 7 winners are within 0.03 points of the Winner's Midpoint. or more correctly, 5 /7 ARE NOT even close to the winners mid-point. JT is NOT even close to the average winners mid-point. 9. 2 / 7 winner's fall in the 7th position; another 2 / 7 fall in the 10th position JT falls into neither category. 10. The LOWEST MORD WINNER belongs to ARAS (0.47), The HIGHEST MORD WINNER belongs to Tom (1.64) JT falls between these 2 extremes. His MORD at E12 is most like Bob's (ANOTHER POSITIVE WINNER WHO ALSO WON THE VIEWERS PRIZE) . 11. The LOWEST MORD ever is a tie between Peih-Gee (S15) and Cirie (S16) at 0.40. Players trending in this area are not the winner. Lowest this season is Sandy at .46, then Stephen at .51... neither win. 12. Only Once has the Final 1 & 2 players' MORDs been side by side... Aras and Danielle. Also the only time the the 2 Lowest MORDs lined up to the Winner & 2nd place. JT & Stephen are not near each other, MORD-wise. 13. VERY EARLY boots (1st or 2nd) USUALLY have the HIGHEST MORD (6 / 8 seasons) NO. Coach has - by far - the highest MORD this season. However, and interesting note, Carolina, the first boot, had the second highest MORD...which is in line with the rest of the season. 14. 7/8 seasons the second lowest MORD belongs to a VERY EARLY Jury member or major decoy winner (or F2 loser) or a combination (like Eliza S16 or Marcus) . Stephen.... Our Main Decoy Winner AND F2 loser, has the 2nd lowest MORD of the season. 15. 2 / 8 seasons, the winner was exactly on the midpoint (topside) for their season. An additional 3 / 8 seasons, the winner was within 3 positions from the midpoint. (62.5% of winners fall very close to the midpoint for their season). JT falls on the topside of the midpoint of his season. MOR Differential Observations hold true at 71% (10 / 15 with one draw). The MORDiff accurately singles out JT as the winner by having him within the S18 mid-range value and the season's mid-point. ETA: * this may change at final vote. Stephen is currently at 0.51... he may end up being lower than 0.5. Last Edited By: Phoenix1269 05/18/09 12:19 AM. Edited 2 times.
chaperone		#5103	[-]
Posts: 2673 (05/18/09 12:39 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Seacrest22 wrote: So complex tribe theory definitely took a big hit tonight. Not the way I interpreted it! Neither tribe was complex, it was the exile alliance that was complex. colleenlover wrote: Exhile Alliance was the complex tribe. hmmm, but even that failed. Oh but it was perfect! JT was brought into it in such a great storytelling sort of way. Last Edited By: chaperone 05/18/09 12:44 AM. Edited 1 times.
James Barber		#5104	[-]
Posts: 15145 (05/18/09 1:04 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	scepticA wrote: Wow. seven-zip. People are surprised that Stephen did so poorly, but I wonder if that was based on our expectations because of edgic? We heard his confessionals, often edited severely and making him look very sharp, but how many times did we see him talking to others in a clear, concise voice? This is something that edgic can't resolve. The interview comments from Debbie and Sierra probably should have set off alarms. They both said they had no idea Stephen was a major player in strategy. So even if he did make F2, then he had failed to make a positive game impression on at least two of the jurors. I enjoyed this season; most of the people at the end were smart players and made strategic moves without being assholes or mugging for the camera. I wish we' seen more of them and less of Coach. The only positive thing I can say about Coach is that I think he's a better example of what the distraction edit means on Survivor now than someone like JT, who was bandied about as a distraction edit. Last Edited By: James Barber 05/18/09 1:07 AM. Edited 1 times.
chaperone		#5105	[-]
Posts: 2674 (05/18/09 1:07 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Phoenix1269 wrote (BOTTOM OF PAGE 129): ncassaro wrote: chaperone wrote: I still pick Stephen, but I think I'm more of a fan at this point than being edgically objective. I forget why JT and Brendan are so low on our lists anymore. They have decent edits. Did they have a bad episode I missed? IMO both have better edits than Tyson, Erinn, and now even Sierra. Gosh, it's been 3 weeks though so I think I've been ruminating on the old material so it's all a bit skewed from my last (edgically relevant) post. Brendan's episode 1 was shit (see Micronesia, Cirie Fields in.) JT has been too OTT. JT has had 1 OTT and that was in the last episode (E5) The biggest issue with JT for most edgicers is that he has been too MOR and too P. However, for some....like me.... I never wrote him off becuase i feel like his editing pattern actually fits VERY well with some of outr past winners...like Tom & Aras. He has been sitting with Stephen as my 1/2 for a while now. As with other early MOR winners, their edit starts to take off near the merge... which is what is happening with JT. Stephen and JT are still my 1 & 2 picks (but their order is still flip flopping)... I'll decide next week after the merge episode which one i'll stick with to the end. (Agreeance on Brendan... UTR1 E1 to CP5 in E2 is not a good thing.) ETA: ColleenLover.... great point regarding Stephen being a distraction for JT... it really is starting to look that way, isn't it.... I feel like i should go back to Episode 1 & 2 and rewatch. This was the post I was looking for...might be as close to a magical "nailed it" post of the season from a minority supporter of JT. Phoenix...nice work. Was this always your position? Who else had JT as their pick? Separately - can someone give a chronological summary of the spoiler's season? Just curious...
chad6		#5106	[-]
Posts: 3464 (05/18/09 2:04 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Good try this season Edgicians! I enjoyed reading everyone's stuff. Keep it up next season, don't listen to the haters. Based on edits, I thought Stephen was going to win too.
dcsurvivor		#5107	[-]
Posts: 320 (05/18/09 4:01 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Congrats to JT and KUDOS to the editors.......even though I had picked JT from the first couple of episodes, (I couldn't figure out why they kept shoving down our throats how much everyone loved JT....why? to explain how he won so easily, 7-0, that's why), I actually wavered in the finale....I thought Erinn was going to be in the final 2 and pull off a win.....then when it was JT and Stephen......I began to think Stephen might pull it off......really good editing, in my mind...... I am in agreement with JP.......this season makes it in my own top 5......even though I hated Coach and Tyson.......I enjoyed watching this season over many of the other seasons...... It bothers me when people say edgic is a failure and make fun of it........while I don't participate in the numbers, this is the first thread I read on Sucks and just about every day.....the majority of the posts in here are insightful, humorous, and thought provoking......just as the editors paint a picture with their story, you try to paint the winner with visibility and numbers.......do the editors get it right every time? NO, cough, Sierra......and there have been others.........most of the time, you are spot on....... So, thank you to those who post legitimately and seriously in here, and you know who you are.......you make my total Survivor experience so much more enjoyable............looking forward to next season..........
getting real		#5108	[-]
Posts: 1754 (05/18/09 5:10 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Congrats to those who nailed it. First, to Phoenix, who at one point very early not only noticed JT but also wondered whether it was JT who was a distraction for Stephen or vice versa! Well done! Also, to Taks who came up with the JT/Stephen pairing very early, CL who was certain that the F2 would come from Stephen, Sierra & JT. And to Dennydoyle & Seacrest. And, last but not least, to Trix who ventured into this thread and showed us all how it should be done! Just read all the post-merge boot interviews. They're as close to telling us what was going to happen as any spoiler might have. Almost every juror commented that they had no idea Stephen was involved in any strategy. This is a typical comment: RNO: Did you have any idea of all the scheming and planning being done by J.T. and Stephen? Debbie: I had no idea. As a matter of fact, I really have been shocked the last couple weeks because Stephen out in the game came off as a follower of J.T. and didn't say much. Now that I watch it, Stephen was really manipulating this game and we didn't give him enough credit out there. Whenever any of us talked, we talked to J.T. In addition, just before the finale, Coach told us that all we had to do was to watch the finale and we would see how he had changed the game in favor of the 'strong and honorable' being taken to the end. Last Edited By: getting real 05/18/09 5:24 AM. Edited 1 times.
SwineForkbeard		#5109	[-]
Posts: 2241 (05/18/09 6:41 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Seacrest22, you were the voice of reason all season long, and I'd put more blind faith in your analysis than all these blowhards put together.
Warrior		#5110	[-]
Posts: 2904 (05/18/09 7:39 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Congrats to Blake, beatles, taks, phoenix and everyone else that picked JT!
heyheyitspeter		#5111	[-]
Posts: 58 (05/18/09 7:47 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Does anyone know the Vis numbers for the finale?
scepticA		#5112	[-]
Posts: 1653 (05/18/09 8:12 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hey, heyhey - start that part of the thread. What were their visibility #s? I don't do 'em, so don't particularly care, but will be intrigued by the gusto of the arguments over whether Taj was P or neutral.
dennydoylelives		#5113	[-]
Posts: 2869 (05/18/09 8:13 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Phoenix1269 wrote: other high-5's to blake and denny. The only other 2 who were consistent with their votes. Wrong, but consistent. I thought it was a fun season, and until that third vote came up for JT, I thought it would be a close vote. Should have figured it out from the whole not showing any votes thing. Oh well. Looking forward to Samoa.
Oowatanite		#5114	[-]
Posts: 7686 (05/18/09 8:41 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Congrats to those who picked JT to win. I was very hopeful when Erinn was featured so much in the recap and then so much in the early part of the finale. Oh well. And good luck to Ethan !
TallBill		#5115	[-]
Posts: 27 (05/18/09 9:01 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Seacrest22 wrote: I'm not sure about that. I think JT threw him off his game and got in his head. Up against someone he wasn't as close with, maybe he's able to keep his composure better. I guess we'll never know. Exactly right. I think it illustrates the quality of emotional intelligence. Stephen is quite the smart fellow, but JT is both intellectually smart and emotionally smart -- he knows how to deal with people. He played both Stephen and the jury perfectly during the questioning, a truly bravura performance. Stephen made a couple major blunders, starting with the previous tribal council, where he tried to argue that JT should take him to finals based on their friendship, and that he would carry over his personal feelings into post-game if JT didn't take him. Given that Stephen's whole game (and JT's and Taj's ... all the final players, really) was about cold calculating plays aimed at getting rid of the biggest threats, there was simply no way he could credibly argue that friendship should determine game behavior, and certainly not to threaten someone by witholding friendshipo. Classic case of the smart guy losing to the smart + popular guy (the guy with superior social skills). I think, on the one hand, that JT was one of the best players in Survivor history, with a combination of survival knowledge, athleticism, focus, determination, likability, and very strong social skills. On the other hand, I think he, and some of the others too, had some weird ways of looking at people, and I think that's part of the reason for the difference in perception between fans and contestants about a couple of the women. For example, in the final episode, we saw both JT and Stephen complain about Erinn talking so excitedly after tribal council when she was kept rather than Taj. You have a couple things going on there. JT and Stephen are upset with themselves for blindsiding someone they truly admired. Erinn was shocked and excited to still be there, and suddenly realizing she really is at final three after a long and winding struggle through the game. So all three are having completely natural reactions ... just reactions that are incompatible, under the circumstances. JT may be one of the greatest players ever, and an all around good guy. But I question the way he assesses people. This is a guy who I believe genuinely liked Coach. Let that sink in. He spent a lot of time with Coach -- a man with a deep-set personality disorder that compelled him to show off in the most ridiculous ways, and to insult people when challenged about things. And JT basically liked the guy, while considering Erinn one of the most annoying people he ever met.
TallBill		#5116	[-]
Posts: 28 (05/18/09 9:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The Marquesan Godfather wrote: Oowatanite wrote: JT pitches a shutout and Probst and the editors are so happy that they place practically ZERO doubt in his win. Terrible storytelling. How do you place doubt on his journey to the final two and his easy win when the cannon fodder aren't even entertaining booting him? When everyone likes and respects him? The players this season rolled over. That's all this season ever was. The "cannon fodder" largely rolled over. But JT's immunity win run played a huge role in that. Stephen and Erinn obviously would have taken him out at F3, given the option. And I think Taj would have been up for it at F4. Maybe they should have taken him out earlier, but then they wouldn't have had the numbers to win those other votes.
Kitty Pryde1		#5117	[-]
Posts: 9565 (05/18/09 9:15 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	TallBill wrote: Seacrest22 wrote: I'm not sure about that. I think JT threw him off his game and got in his head. Up against someone he wasn't as close with, maybe he's able to keep his composure better. I guess we'll never know. Exactly right. I think it illustrates the quality of emotional intelligence. Stephen is quite the smart fellow, but JT is both intellectually smart and emotionally smart -- he knows how to deal with people. He played both Stephen and the jury perfectly during the questioning, a truly bravura performance. Stephen made a couple major blunders, starting with the previous tribal council, where he tried to argue that JT should take him to finals based on their friendship, and that he would carry over his personal feelings into post-game if JT didn't take him. Given that Stephen's whole game (and JT's and Taj's ... all the final players, really) was about cold calculating plays aimed at getting rid of the biggest threats, there was simply no way he could credibly argue that friendship should determine game behavior, and certainly not to threaten someone by witholding friendshipo. Classic case of the smart guy losing to the smart + popular guy (the guy with superior social skills). I think, on the one hand, that JT was one of the best players in Survivor history, with a combination of survival knowledge, athleticism, focus, determination, likability, and very strong social skills. On the other hand, I think he, and some of the others too, had some weird ways of looking at people, and I think that's part of the reason for the difference in perception between fans and contestants about a couple of the women. For example, in the final episode, we saw both JT and Stephen complain about Erinn talking so excitedly after tribal council when she was kept rather than Taj. You have a couple things going on there. JT and Stephen are upset with themselves for blindsiding someone they truly admired. Erinn was shocked and excited to still be there, and suddenly realizing she really is at final three after a long and winding struggle through the game. So all three are having completely natural reactions ... just reactions that are incompatible, under the circumstances. JT may be one of the greatest players ever, and an all around good guy. But I question the way he assesses people. This is a guy who I believe genuinely liked Coach. Let that sink in. He spent a lot of time with Coach -- a man with a deep-set personality disorder that compelled him to show off in the most ridiculous ways, and to insult people when challenged about things. And JT basically liked the guy, while considering Erinn one of the most annoying people he ever met. Sounds pretty accurate to me.
Oowatanite		#5118	[-]
Posts: 7691 (05/18/09 9:20 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	chaperone wrote: Separately - can someone give a chronological summary of the spoilers season? Just curious... There was an early "Coach is fifth" spoiler that proved to be accurate. Also, a "Debbie makes family visit" spoiler. The big spoiler was provided by CBS/SEG. In the preview of the second half of the season (at the end of the recap episode), they showed JT and Taj in the F4 Spider challenge. It was known to be the F4 challenge since there was other pics of the four puzzle stations on the spider. A few spoilers proved false - "Taj is final juror", "Sierra makes F6". The winner was not spoiled. The F2 was not spoiled. The F4 was not spoiled. No one knew where Erinn would finish. She was placed pretty much in every slot from second juror to final juror.
AllMenAreIslands		#5119	[-]
Posts: 25901 (05/18/09 9:45 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The season turned out pretty good! I really liked the F3 challenge, and it looks like there aren't many who agree with me. But it struck me as a challenge that didn't outright favor a particular body type (as so many of them often do, favoring either male strength or female lower center of gravity), but rather a skill - hand/eye coordination. Quite exciting challenge and didn't go on too long. As for the Final TC, I thought it was the best ever because the questions asked spurred the two finalists to argue with each other more than with the questioner. That hasn't ever happened before to such an extent. Congrats to the few who picked JT!
AndreSurvivor		#5120	[-]
Posts: 575 (05/18/09 9:48 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Dammit, I should really stick with my gut. I voted JT as the winner a few episodes ago because it was a nagging feeling... but in the last episode, I just had to keep Stephen. It just seemed too obvious. Well, I'm pleased it was always JT/Stephen for me, whatever that's worth, and to get the F2 way before the merge is nice. So, what I learned: if it's close, pick the highest-ranked edgic pick Episode 1 as the tie breaker. Also, the merge is important (bye-bye Sierra, Erinn and Taj), the first episode is key (bye-bye Brendan, Tyson and Taj again), INV still holds up (bye Debbie) and it can never be too obvious.

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins