Rank the Winners

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panurge46		#1201	[-]
Posts: 1356 (05/24/09 2:30 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: 1. J.T. - Played as close to a flawless game as you can get. True, he had a lot of help from Timbira...He had it all; social, strategic, physical. His social game was probably the strongest out of any survivor ever. A lot of help you say? How about half a tribe wanting to give him the win? We have to consider that JT contributed a lot to Jalapao's minortiy at merge: He let Timbira have a bag of rice and he single-handedly lost the last IC. Voting out Debbie and Coach was good for Stephen, not so much JT. It forced him to win the last 2 immunities.He's a great winner for sure but not a flawless game by any means. 2. Brian - Dominated the whole game, almost a flawless game ... flawed in that he gave SJ the opportunity to pull Ted over. Brian was very lucky that Suck Job did a "Timbira" before the merge. Suck Job was the dominant tribe but, through petty conflicts and horrible, simply HORRIBLE challenge performances, they let Chewing Gum have the game. Once that happened, Brian received a limo drive to the red carpet finale. 3. Tina - Control most of the way. I still think some decisions she made (voting out Jerri) were bad, but she read her players. 4. Danni - Great comeback winner, played an awesome observation and execute game. 5. Richard - Pioneered the game. I might put him lower, because I think a lot of people forget that he was unaware of all the power Sue and Kelly really possessed. 6. Yul - Lots of luck, but maximized every situation. Created a situation where he couldn't be voted out. 7. Parvati - Played masterfully and had allies left, right, and central. Had a lot of luck though, which IMO was more extreme than the other winner who had a lot of luck. Hatch understood Sue and he knew what to say to separate the two women. Parvati may be a little high while I wish we had seen Yul play a real Survivor game instead of the politically correct, twist infested version. 8. Chris - Made an enormous strategic blunder, but played flawlessly at almost every other point in the game. I might even put him lower because voting out Kenny was a huge mistake. Kenny? OK, I know who you mean. Chris had as much reasons to put faith in Julie as JT had with Erinn. And, if the men take over at the merge, who is to say that the F2 isn't a combination of Rory, Sarge and Chad? Chris had an understanding with Julie and Twila that served him well after the merge, one acting as his spy, the other became his best ally. 9. Amber - Vastly underrated, never really left control, and saved herself at a key point. I know you're a fan and I can respect that even if I don't agree. 10. Todd - He is another that played a great first half, but by the end he seemed oblivious to the fact that Amanda and Denise were running through other options. Todd knew that both Amanda and Denise wanted to take him and Courtney to the end. Even if they talked, the two women were never going to vote together at F4 and voting out Todd before that was never an option. Todd's strategy was exemplary, from designating Aaron as team leader to protecting James before the merge and then using his rag-tag alliance to get rid of James and the other strong players. The risk he took when voting out James was necessary 11. Earl - Not impressed, and he was trumped strategically by Cassanda and Dreamz. Cassandra was only a follower, Dreamz was always kept in check despite his volatility. Earl's approach of listening and letting his plan evolve was another great demonstration of strategy. Earl and Danni were the two best listeners, a powerful tool in this game. 12. Jenna - She did a great job the first half of the game, but again got too complacent, and had little to no control from final 7 onwards. 13. Vecepia - Eh, she made some good moves, but wasn't near the thinker that Kathy and Sean were. I'd have both lower. 14. Tom - There was nothing all that impressive. He put an enormous target on himself, didn't have to play until the merge, where he didn't even have much power. You sound like Coby. Tom is JT with a much better won-loss record before the merge. He was very well liked and respected by most players. Tom played very well and very hard before the merge, winning all those immunity challenges against a team that looked much more athletic. His strategy enabled him to secure his position with Ian and Gregg from day 1 so that he had nothing to worry about before F5. He was smart enough to make his move at F6. 15. Sandra - At least she played the game for herself, but got far too complacent. Did a good job scrambling though. 16. Bob - He road coattails to the max for most of the game, but at least when he needed to pick it up, he did a bit. Even though Sugar played the game for him. 17. Ethan - Played an impeccable social game, but terrible strategist. I liked Bob, maybe because he's the only winner that is older than I am! Riding coat-tails is an acceptable strategy, especially when all the hard work contributes to the others wanting to bring you along. 18. Aras - Just clueless all around. Aras did the same thing with Cirie that JT did with Stephen. Recognizing a smart player and sticking to that player is hardly clueless. Aras won the only immunity he needed and he kept his dysfunctional tribe in check, something Timbira showed wasn't easy. I'd have him in the top 10.
chapera rocks		#1202	[-]
Posts: 11223 (05/24/09 3:37 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	A lot of help you say? How about half a tribe wanting to give him the win? We have to consider that JT contributed a lot to Jalapao's minortiy at merge: He let Timbira have a bag of rice and he single-handedly lost the last IC. Voting out Debbie and Coach was good for Stephen, not so much JT. It forced him to win the last 2 immunities.He's a great winner for sure but not a flawless game by any means. I definitely agree with a lot of this. But we wouldn't know how he would have adapted had Timbira not been so self-destructive; we saw him control all of Jalapao. But someone like JT is always going to be a target in the endgame regardless, and so the fact that he made the final 4 with ease shows something, and at least he took out all his challenge competitors to the point where it was a given that he would win final 4 and final 3. I concede it probably would have been smart to keep Coach and/or Debbie. Brian was very lucky that Suck Job did a "Timbira" before the merge. Suck Job was the dominant tribe but, through petty conflicts and horrible, simply HORRIBLE challenge performances, they let Chewing Gum have the game. Once that happened, Brian received a limo drive to the red carpet finale. IMO, you can't just piss on someone's game because their opposition was (supposedly) stupid. The only big mistake that Sook Jai made was throwing the challenge to vote out Jed. And Brian had no control over that, and who knows how he would have played in the minority. One things for sure: he played every member of Chuay Gahn enough to position himself very well, with no real opposition. He had Jan, Helen, Ted, and Clay all under his control, and had a great relationship with Tanya before she left. Sook Jai went on a losing streak, but that's all part of the game, and if you value challenges in any way, Brian did almost single handedly win many of CG's challenges. Hatch understood Sue and he knew what to say to separate the two women. Parvati may be a little high while I wish we had seen Yul play a real Survivor game instead of the politically correct, twist infested version. Hatch has admitted, even on the show, that he was totally blindsided when it came out that Kelly and Sue were going to backstab him. It fell through because Kelly/Sue fell through, not through any doing of Hatch. He was completely oblivious to the coup that would have taken him out in 4th. Kenny? OK, I know who you mean. Chris had as much reasons to put faith in Julie as JT had with Erinn. And, if the men take over at the merge, who is to say that the F2 isn't a combination of Rory, Sarge and Chad? Chris had an understanding with Julie and Twila that served him well after the merge, one acting as his spy, the other became his best ally. I don't see the similarity in the situation; Timbira was known to be fractured, and Timbira was known to have written off Erinn. Yasur was united, and the guys had no reason to think that Julie at the very least, wouldn't jump back over. Chris knew he had John under his control. And if the men take over the merge, its a well known fact that Chris had inroads with all of them; he was the best positioned of any of the men, having the tightest relationship with all 4 of them. I know you're a fan and I can respect that even if I don't agree. Thank you but I don't want it to seem like this is a fantard placement. I've stated my justification time and time again, and I feel I made good arguments. You sound like Coby. Tom is JT with a much better won-loss record before the merge. He was very well liked and respected by most players. Tom played very well and very hard before the merge, winning all those immunity challenges against a team that looked much more athletic. His strategy enabled him to secure his position with Ian and Gregg from day 1 so that he had nothing to worry about before F5. He was smart enough to make his move at F6. Liked and respected by most, yes, but did he have those inroads and alliances? No. He assumed his Koror 5 was good till the end and he didn't do much beyond that. Gregg/Jenn had every intention to blindside him, and he had no idea, and if Coby and Janu didn't flake, it would have worked. The only thing that keyed him into how he was in a bad position at final 5 was the final 6 reward challenge; he was ready to dump Caryn at 6 until Gregg took Jenn and Katie on the reward. Katie and Ian were turning on him, he didn't know. He was very oblivious to his actual position, and he never really had endgame solid connections. JT was a similar player, except he actually did have all the power at Jalapao and was always very aware of his position. He also made a great move when he voted for Erinn at final 5 that secured him a lot of respect, and he accurately predicted the juries reaction to his distraught over Stephen; JT was 10 times more perceptive than Tom ever was; he was naive. That being said, I do respect Tom and think he was a good winner, but far from the best. I liked Bob, maybe because he's the only winner that is older than I am! Riding coat-tails is an acceptable strategy, especially when all the hard work contributes to the others wanting to bring you along. Yeah, it could be a valid strategy, but looking at how successful Kota was; he was ready and willing to except fifth place with them. He was on the outs, and was determined to stick with Kota. That's not much of a gameplan. To his credit, he did approach Dan once, but backed out later. Oh, and lets not forget the fact that he announced in front of swing vote Susie that he wished they had voted her out last tribal council. Aras did the same thing with Cirie that JT did with Stephen. Recognizing a smart player and sticking to that player is hardly clueless. Aras won the only immunity he needed and he kept his dysfunctional tribe in check, something Timbira showed wasn't easy. I'd have him in the top 10. JT did things strategically and planned things strategically and played people strategically. Aras didn't do anything, he didn't have a grasp on the game, and never initiated anything. He played Casaya leader but was clueless, and didn't realize that every other member of Casaya was hoping that Terry would take him out with the idol. He would have rather been voted out than betray Casaya, a tribe that didn't even support him.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#1203	[-]
Posts: 8056 (05/24/09 4:57 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I definitely agree with a lot of this. But we wouldn't know how he would have adapted had Timbira not been so self-destructive; we saw him control all of Jalapao. But someone like JT is always going to be a target in the endgame regardless, and so the fact that he made the final 4 with ease shows something, and at least he took out all his challenge competitors to the point where it was a given that he would win final 4 and final 3. I concede it probably would have been smart to keep Coach and/or Debbie. This is one of the only casts I can think of(Except for Australia) where people threw away their games just to serve some "higher purpose", whether it be morality or "warriorship"( ). I agree with Craigs analysis of JT though, and I would put him squarly in the middle of a winners ranking. He does understand the game and knows his self interests, but Tocantins was an anomalous season. IMO, you can't just piss on someone's game because their opposition was (supposedly) stupid. The only big mistake that Sook Jai made was throwing the challenge to vote out Jed. And Brian had no control over that, and who knows how he would have played in the minority. One things for sure: he played every member of Chuay Gahn enough to position himself very well, with no real opposition. He had Jan, Helen, Ted, and Clay all under his control, and had a great relationship with Tanya before she left. Sook Jai went on a losing streak, but that's all part of the game, and if you value challenges in any way, Brian did almost single handedly win many of CG's challenges. I agree in toto. Brian is one of those people who would seem to do well in almost every season he plays in. As for Teds vote, it's all but confirmed he would have voted for Brian regardless of Helens slander. Liked and respected by most, yes, but did he have those inroads and alliances? No. He assumed his Koror 5 was good till the end and he didn't do much beyond that. Gregg/Jenn had every intention to blindside him, and he had no idea, and if Coby and Janu didn't flake, it would have worked. The only thing that keyed him into how he was in a bad position at final 5 was the final 6 reward challenge; he was ready to dump Caryn at 6 until Gregg took Jenn and Katie on the reward. Katie and Ian were turning on him, he didn't know. He was very oblivious to his actual position, and he never really had endgame solid connections. JT was a similar player, except he actually did have all the power at Jalapao and was always very aware of his position. He also made a great move when he voted for Erinn at final 5 that secured him a lot of respect, and he accurately predicted the juries reaction to his distraught over Stephen; JT was 10 times more perceptive than Tom ever was; he was naive. That being said, I do respect Tom and think he was a good winner, but far from the best. We know NOTHING about how Tom would have handled more Ulong members at the merge. As for his tribe, he was supremely well connected. It didn't matter that he was unaware, he made solid friendships that were on the look out for him. It's not that simple though. He knew he was the MVP of the tribe, and wagered that Gregg would never win immunity. He surrounded himself with an otherwise strong, smart stoolie in Ian. JT did things strategically and planned things strategically and played people strategically. Aras didn't do anything, he didn't have a grasp on the game, and never initiated anything. He played Casaya leader but was clueless, and didn't realize that every other member of Casaya was hoping that Terry would take him out with the idol. He would have rather been voted out than betray Casaya, a tribe that didn't even support him. Are you kidding? Aras not only recognized that Casaya was using him as a tool, he was clever enough to use that as part of his strategy. He set up Cirie to lose Shanes vote in the final 2, and threw a few challenges to assure that he would be kept perpetually.
chapera rocks		#1204	[-]
Posts: 11227 (05/24/09 5:15 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	We know NOTHING about how Tom would have handled more Ulong members at the merge. As for his tribe, he was supremely well connected. It didn't matter that he was unaware, he made solid friendships that were on the look out for him. It's not that simple though. He knew he was the MVP of the tribe, and wagered that Gregg would never win immunity. He surrounded himself with an otherwise strong, smart stoolie in Ian. How was he well connected beyond the Koror 5? Ian had a good alliance with him, yes, but was trying to take him out at final 4. Katie never wanted to go near the end game with Tom, and was much closer to Ian and Jenn and even Gregg until she got threatened by Ian. Gregg had his own agenda that didn't include Tom. As did Jenn. He had no allies that wanted him in the end-game. Koror used him as a stepping stool to gain a majority, but he had very little power throughout the game. Are you kidding? Aras not only recognized that Casaya was using him as a tool, he was clever enough to use that as part of his strategy. He set up Cirie to lose Shanes vote in the final 2, and threw a few challenges to assure that he would be kept perpetually. If he recognized that Casaya was using him as a tool, why did he tell Sally "I'd rather get voted off than betray Casaya"? And if you could please provide some sort of proof that he set up Cirie to lose Shane's vote? Because the way I saw it, Cirie blindsided Shane and got Aras to come along by making sure he knew that Shane was going to betray him.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#1205	[-]
Posts: 8058 (05/24/09 5:31 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: How was he well connected beyond the Koror 5? Ian had a good alliance with him, yes, but was trying to take him out at final 4. Katie never wanted to go near the end game with Tom, and was much closer to Ian and Jenn and even Gregg until she got threatened by Ian. Gregg had his own agenda that didn't include Tom. As did Jenn. He had no allies that wanted him in the end-game. Koror used him as a stepping stool to gain a majority, but he had very little power throughout the game. Well as I said, we don't know how he would have done with more Ulong members at the merge. I remember him saying that he might have substituted Bobby Jon in place of Gregg if the situation ever arised. That would mean that either Caryn or Gregg would go in place of Bobby Jon at the final 10. If it was the latter, that opens up the "can of worms" with Jenn possibly creating a female alliance, so Tom can be thankful that didn't happen. Tom was also quoted as saying that he picked Stephenie to target Jolanda ASAP, which shows strategic foresight. As far as Ian betraying him, yes that is true. However, Ian was the person who would target Tom at the absolute latest time compared to everyone else. Tom also could probably see him and Katies relationship and knew that Katie would be a good little soldier and help Ian out vis a vis. If he recognized that Casaya was using him as a tool, why did he tell Sally "I'd rather get voted off than betray Casaya"? And if you could please provide some sort of proof that he set up Cirie to lose Shane's vote? Because the way I saw it, Cirie blindsided Shane and got Aras to come along by making sure he knew that Shane was going to betray him. Aras was probably saving face while saying that. For some reason, he wanted to look like a "moral, upstanding guy". Besides, it made no difference, he wasn't going home, and making an alliance with La Mina would be a death wish. I mean, it would have been assinine to align with Sally and Terry. Aras betrayed Cirie by throwing the final 7 reward challenge and forcing Cirie to choose him over Shane. Thus, she broke her promise to him. When Shane demanded she swear on her family, she did, but then was forced to betray him again. This wouldn't have happened had Aras not threw the challenge and then console Shane into the false sense of security.
chapera rocks		#1206	[-]
Posts: 11228 (05/24/09 5:39 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Aras was probably saving face while saying that. For some reason, he wanted to look like a "moral, upstanding guy". Besides, it made no difference, he wasn't going home, and making an alliance with La Mina would be a death wish. I mean, it would have been assinine to align with Sally and Terry. "Probably" means nothing when its all your speculation. That's what he told Sally. Even if he shouldn't have aligned with La Mina, he could have strung them along in order to deflect votes off of him. Had Sally accepted the idol Terry was ready to give to her, Aras would have been voted out because he refused to betray Casaya, who were throwing him under the bus. It made no difference because Sally declined the idol and Terry kept winning immunity, both of which were out of his control. Aras betrayed Cirie by throwing the final 7 reward challenge and forcing Cirie to choose him over Shane. Thus, she broke her promise to him. When Shane demanded she swear on her family, she did, but then was forced to betray him again. This wouldn't have happened had Aras not threw the challenge and then console Shane into the false sense of security. That's the one good move that I can think of that he made, but even so its very minor. He had no idea what deals Cirie was going to make, so his only benefit was not having to make a decision on who went to the reward ... which is hardly strategic brilliance.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#1207	[-]
Posts: 8059 (05/24/09 5:51 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: "Probably" means nothing when its all your speculation. That's what he told Sally. Even if he shouldn't have aligned with La Mina, he could have strung them along in order to deflect votes off of him. Had Sally accepted the idol Terry was ready to give to her, Aras would have been voted out because he refused to betray Casaya, who were throwing him under the bus. It made no difference because Sally declined the idol and Terry kept winning immunity, both of which were out of his control. Well, as you admitted, Aras had a very tenuous position within Casaya. He was also the glue holding them together. If he went back on that promise, than Terry would have gotten what he wanted. Why did Sally refuse the idol again? That's the one good move that I can think of that he made, but even so its very minor. He had no idea what deals Cirie was going to make, so his only benefit was not having to make a decision on who went to the reward ... which is hardly strategic brilliance. At the final 7, Aras was Ciries only stable allie. Therefore, he was aware of what was going on in full. What is Cirie going to do, align with Danielle and Bruce? Even so, she couldn't have done that after Bruce was evacuated.
panurge46		#1208	[-]
Posts: 1357 (05/24/09 6:10 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: JT... at least... took out all his challenge competitors to the point where it was a given that he would win final 4 and final 3. A given? Erinn came within seconds of beating him at F4. Brian... who knows how he would have played in the minority... Brian did almost single handedly win many of CG's challenges. To the first sentence I would say that Suck Job's reaction to him after the merge told us a lot. They thought Clay was a better social player. Clay!! Imagine if Brian had to face a twist. His goose was cooked. As far as challenges go we had 3 Suck Job players lasting a total of about 30 seconds under water. Another challenge was the 21-flag fiasco. Brian deserves some credit but not much. Hatch has admitted, even on the show, that he was totally blindsided when it came out that Kelly and Sue were going to backstab him. It fell through because Kelly/Sue fell through, not through any doing of Hatch. He was completely oblivious to the coup that would have taken him out in 4th. But, by F4, it didn't matter. Hatch had the rock-solid Rudy to count on. Even at F5, had Sean won immunity, Kelly would have left. Hatch had seen exactly what had developed between Sue and Kelly and had contributed to the distrust. To plan, on Day 12, on blindsiding someone on Day 36 is pretty useless if you don't come through. To ask someone to plan against it is demanding too much. About Chris: I don't see the similarity in the situation; Timbira was known to be fractured, and Timbira was known to have written off Erinn. Yasur was united, and the guys had no reason to think that Julie at the very least, wouldn't jump back over. Chris knew he had John under his control. You seem to forget that John had told the guys that he had separated the women into the groups that had voted with and against Dolly. Chris knew that Julie had been with Mia and Lisa in voting with Dolly. Since that time, Chris had seen Mia and Lisa leave, the latter in spite of the presence of Rory. Chris knew that Yasur was deeply fractured and that Julie was the lone true bowhead left. Chris also knew that Twila liked it better with the guys. As far as controlling John, John wanted Chad gone so he was a loose canon. About Amber: Thank you but I don't want it to seem like this is a fantard placement. I've stated my justification time and time again, and I feel I made good arguments. A fantard placement would have been a top 3 so 9th is not unreasonable. Your arguments have always been solid but I feel that ASS was influenced by reputations and friendships so much that the results are tainted beyond repair. About Tom: Liked and respected by most, yes, but did he have those inroads and alliances? No. He assumed his Koror 5 was good till the end and he didn't do much beyond that. Gregg/Jenn had every intention to blindside him, and he had no idea, and if Coby and Janu didn't flake, it would have worked. The only thing that keyed him into how he was in a bad position at final 5 was the final 6 reward challenge; he was ready to dump Caryn at 6 until Gregg took Jenn and Katie on the reward. Katie and Ian were turning on him, he didn't know. He was very oblivious to his actual position, and he never really had endgame solid connections. Didn't you see him take Steph under his wing as soon as she arrived on Koror's beach? That was an inroad, an alliance made on day 1. Why didn't Tom participate in any of the final 3 tribal ICs? That was because he knew he had made inroads with BJ and wouldn't have minded seeing him take Coby's spot. Don't you remember how much Tom marginalized Coby so that even Gregg wanted him gone? Strategy. Just saying: "We can make Koror the best tribe ever, we can set a precedent and win everything" was part of the strategy. Sitting out those last ICs made it a team effort and a team rewards its leader. Tom's Koror 5 was, in fact, good till F5 so why hold that against him? We heard Tom worry about Gregg and Jenn's connection but he knew very well that Gregg wasn't going to do a thing before F5. And saying he didn't have inroads and alliances is forgetting about his agreement with Ian to stay together until F3 and then battle it out on the playing field. Having the immunity necklace so often certainly helped but I believe that Tom controlled the game as much as anyone else. About Bob: he was ready and willing to except fifth place with them. Accepting 5th place on day 6 isn't bad at all. Charlie and Marcus were a pair, Corrine and Jacquie were another. Suddenly, 3rd looks very possible. Things change so much that I would never turn down 5th spot that early. In fact, 5th may be better than 1st as Marcus found out the hard way! Aras didn't do anything, he didn't have a grasp on the game, and never initiated anything. He played Casaya leader but was clueless, and didn't realize that every other member of Casaya was hoping that Terry would take him out with the idol. He would have rather been voted out than betray Casaya, a tribe that didn't even support him. Aras grasped the game well enough that he knew Casaya had to stay united. He initiated all of their discussions, making sure to include Bruce who was Casaya's Erinn. Betraying Casaya would have meant giving the game to Terry. The women of Casaya were willing to see Aras idoled out during the first few Councils after the merge but, by the time Terry was alone, they realized they needed Aras. If the tribe hadn't supported Aras they would have flipped to Terry's side. Bruce and Danielle had their opportunity and they declined. Cirie and Shane were offered a deal, they laughed. Only Courtney bit at F6. The tribe rallied behind Aras then. Maybe I'm too much into the story but, in my appreciation, no other majority leader faced a tougher opponent than Aras did with Terry, a challenge hog with an all-powerful idol. Aras winning that confrontation despite Casaya's lack of support shows he had what it took to be a winner.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#1209	[-]
Posts: 8061 (05/24/09 6:20 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	To the first sentence I would say that Suck Job's reaction to him after the merge told us a lot. They thought Clay was a better social player. Clay!! Imagine if Brian had to face a twist. His goose was cooked. As far as challenges go we had 3 Suck Job players lasting a total of about 30 seconds under water. Another challenge was the 21-flag fiasco. Brian deserves some credit but not much. The whole fulcrum on which Brian based his strategy was Chewing Job pride. If he attempted to make contact with Suck Job, his cover would be blown. Suck Job was totally extraneous to his plan.
panurge46		#1210	[-]
Posts: 1358 (05/24/09 6:32 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: The whole fulcrum on which Brian based his strategy was Chewing Job pride. If he attempted to make contact with Suck Job, his cover would be blown. Suck Job was totally extraneous to his plan. Well, not totally since he needed at least one of their votes. He didn't need to make undercover contacts with Suck Job, just be nicer to them, get to know them around the fire. Penny said he never even bothered.
chapera rocks		#1211	[-]
Posts: 11231 (05/24/09 6:48 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, as you admitted, Aras had a very tenuous position within Casaya. He was also the glue holding them together. If he went back on that promise, than Terry would have gotten what he wanted. Why did Sally refuse the idol again? Aras kept them together in challenges. Cirie was the one tightly aligned with everyone and stopped them from turning on each other. We even see her mediate what was getting to be a heated argument between Courtney and Aras. Sally refused it because she said there was no point in him giving it to her if they couldn't get a majority anyway -- that it would be a waste. A given? Erinn came within seconds of beating him at F4. Even so, he kept the 3 weakest (or close) competitors in. That is planning. To the first sentence I would say that Suck Job's reaction to him after the merge told us a lot. They thought Clay was a better social player. Clay!! Imagine if Brian had to face a twist. His goose was cooked. As far as challenges go we had 3 Suck Job players lasting a total of about 30 seconds under water. Another challenge was the 21-flag fiasco. Brian deserves some credit but not much. Penny thought Clay was a better social player. Ken and Erin thought Clay was more honest. There's a difference. Fact is, Brian had every member of Chuay Gahn that made the merge under his control. Jake liked him. Shii-Ann liked him. Penny acknowledged he did a very good job at controlling people in her survivorfire interview. Saying his goose was cooked in a twist is a very strong statement to make given that you don't know how he would have reacted. We do know a lot of people liked his hard work and he was good at manipulating. But, by F4, it didn't matter. Hatch had the rock-solid Rudy to count on. Even at F5, had Sean won immunity, Kelly would have left. Hatch had seen exactly what had developed between Sue and Kelly and had contributed to the distrust. To plan, on Day 12, on blindsiding someone on Day 36 is pretty useless if you don't come through. To ask someone to plan against it is demanding too much. The final 3 was Kelly, Sue, and Richard. Rich would have voted against Rudy at final 4, thinking he had an alliance with Sue and knowing he couldn't beat Rudy. You hear him say several times that once he found out about Sue's betrayal, that is when he went to Rudy for a final 2 alliance. Why didn't he do that before? Because he never intended to keep Rudy to the final 3. Plan was also in effect for a long time after day 12. It ended once Sue and Kelly turned on each other, which was well after the merge. Didn't you see him take Steph under his wing as soon as she arrived on Koror's beach? That was an inroad, an alliance made on day 1. Why didn't Tom participate in any of the final 3 tribal ICs? That was because he knew he had made inroads with BJ and wouldn't have minded seeing him take Coby's spot. Don't you remember how much Tom marginalized Coby so that even Gregg wanted him gone? Strategy. Just saying: "We can make Koror the best tribe ever, we can set a precedent and win everything" was part of the strategy. Sitting out those last ICs made it a team effort and a team rewards its leader. Yes, good on Tom for keeping Stephenie by his side, but given the fact that she wasn't an end-game player, it didn't mean all that much. He lead Koror well, but to the point where they all saw it. Gregg turned on Coby once Coby became a loose cannon. I don't think any Koror member thought "oh, Tom is a great leader, lets keep him and let him win!!!!". No, he was trying to make them greatful for his role in Koror's success, but it wasn't working. Tom's Koror 5 was, in fact, good till F5 so why hold that against him? We heard Tom worry about Gregg and Jenn's connection but he knew very well that Gregg wasn't going to do a thing before F5. And saying he didn't have inroads and alliances is forgetting about his agreement with Ian to stay together until F3 and then battle it out on the playing field. Having the immunity necklace so often certainly helped but I believe that Tom controlled the game as much as anyone else. We know very well that Gregg was planning to do something at final 7. The only reason it didn't happen is because Coby flipped out, which caused Gregg to abandon that plan. All of that planning went on under Tom's nose. He had no idea, and that's not a perceptive or controlling player. Yes, he had that agreement with Ian ... who wasn't going to uphold it, dur. Ian was planning on backstabbing Tom before the final 3, namely final 4 (and possibly final 5). And again, Tom had no idea until he won immunity and Jenn told him. Accepting 5th place on day 6 isn't bad at all. Charlie and Marcus were a pair, Corrine and Jacquie were another. Suddenly, 3rd looks very possible. Things change so much that I would never turn down 5th spot that early. In fact, 5th may be better than 1st as Marcus found out the hard way! Bob was willing to accept 5th place on day 24 when Marcus was voted out. Corinne and Jacquie were never a pair. Corinne was jealous of Jacquie and Marcus. In fact, Randy even took his place in the alliance. Bob was still willing to accept 5th or 4th at the merge when they tried to swing Sugar. Bob had even said before the game that he didn't care about winning, that he was keeping his alliances. Aras grasped the game well enough that he knew Casaya had to stay united. He initiated all of their discussions, making sure to include Bruce who was Casaya's Erinn. Betraying Casaya would have meant giving the game to Terry. Getting your tribe to pick off the minority is common sense and not that hard to accomplish (unless you are Timbira). The women of Casaya were willing to see Aras idoled out during the first few Councils after the merge but, by the time Terry was alone, they realized they needed Aras. If the tribe hadn't supported Aras they would have flipped to Terry's side. Bruce and Danielle had their opportunity and they declined. Cirie and Shane were offered a deal, they laughed. Only Courtney bit at F6. The tribe rallied behind Aras then. Maybe I'm too much into the story but, in my appreciation, no other majority leader faced a tougher opponent than Aras did with Terry, a challenge hog with an all-powerful idol. Aras winning that confrontation despite Casaya's lack of support shows he had what it took to be a winner. I feel that Cirie carried Aras. Terry winning immunity kept him in the game, and that was out of his control. At final 6, Cirie scrambled to save him, which had more to do with the fact that Cirie was positioning herself to be taken to the final 2 and couldn't do that with Courtney in the mix. I've yet to see anything amazing that Aras did, strategically, or anything proactively other than "Casaya 6 yay!" that constitutes an amazing game.
chapera rocks		#1212	[-]
Posts: 11232 (05/24/09 6:49 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	panurge46 wrote: Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: The whole fulcrum on which Brian based his strategy was Chewing Job pride. If he attempted to make contact with Suck Job, his cover would be blown. Suck Job was totally extraneous to his plan. Well, not totally since he needed at least one of their votes. He didn't need to make undercover contacts with Suck Job, just be nicer to them, get to know them around the fire. Penny said he never even bothered. Even then, its safe to say he did this (not that it was a good thing) because he didn't need them. To assume this is the type of thing he would do if there had been a switch is a bit far-fetched given we know how he bonded with those that he needed (CG people).
panurge46		#1213	[-]
Posts: 1359 (05/24/09 9:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: Even so, he (JT) kept the 3 weakest (or close) competitors in. That is planning. Agreed, I consider JT a very good winner. Other players kept 3 weak competitors at the end, some of whom didn't get much respect from you, Todd and Chris in particular. Come to think of it, Aras also kept the two weakest competitors that could have been voted out! About Brian, I mainly rank him lower due to his extremely weak competition. The guy was good but he wasn't challenged. Because you wrote: "you can't just piss on someone's game because their opposition was (supposedly) stupid", I guess we'd be turning around in a never ending circle. I feel the competition you beat shows how good you are. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Thailand was the worst. I'll group your arguments against Hatch and Tom in a single quote: The final 3 was Kelly, Sue, and Richard. Rich would have voted against Rudy at final 4, thinking he had an alliance with Sue and knowing he couldn't beat Rudy. You hear him say several times that once he found out about Sue's betrayal, that is when he went to Rudy for a final 2 alliance. Why didn't he do that before? Because he never intended to keep Rudy to the final 3. Plan was also in effect for a long time after day 12. It ended once Sue and Kelly turned on each other, which was well after the merge. We know very well that Gregg was planning to do something at final 7. The only reason it didn't happen is because Coby flipped out, which caused Gregg to abandon that plan. All of that planning went on under Tom's nose. He had no idea, and that's not a perceptive or controlling player. Yes, he had that agreement with Ian ... who wasn't going to uphold it, dur. Ian was planning on backstabbing Tom before the final 3, namely final 4 (and possibly final 5). And again, Tom had no idea until he won immunity and Jenn told him. I know that you value strategy above everything but strategy isn't predicting everything. Even a chess grand master doesn't calculate every possibility. Hatch and Tom both had a clear plan to the end and both adapted their plans to the changing circumstances. Having fallback options actually shows more abilities, not less. BTW, when I wrote that successful teams reward their leaders I didn't mean they were giving Tom the game. I meant they didn't want him voted out prematuraly. I'll also drop the argument on Bob. Strategy wasn't his strong suit but I still think he did well with what he had. I feel that Cirie carried Aras. Terry winning immunity kept him in the game, and that was out of his control. At final 6, Cirie scrambled to save him, which had more to do with the fact that Cirie was positioning herself to be taken to the final 2 and couldn't do that with Courtney in the mix. I've yet to see anything amazing that Aras did, strategically, or anything proactively other than "Casaya 6 yay!" that constitutes an amazing game. According to Shane, they were the ones that carried Cirie! Terry winning immunity changed the game. It wasn't about strategy anymore, it was about outlasting Terry. What move would you suggest Aras needed to do? I never said he played an amazing game but he did what he had to do. Having to go up against Terry and not being able to count on his alliance is an indication that he had to work for his win. I see you've dropped the arguments on Earl, Chris and Todd. Does that mean you agree, at least in part, with my arguments?
chapera rocks		#1214	[-]
Posts: 11236 (05/25/09 8:21 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Agreed, I consider JT a very good winner. Other players kept 3 weak competitors at the end, some of whom didn't get much respect from you, Todd and Chris in particular. Come to think of it, Aras also kept the two weakest competitors that could have been voted out! My reason for lowering Todd is that he didn't understand the end-game dynamics in that he didn't realize at all how much power Denise and Amanda had and how much they were ready to turn on him. Chris did a good job, I agree, but he also made a horrendous error in judgment and had little to do with the coup that took out Ami. I think he's a good winner though. About Brian, I mainly rank him lower due to his extremely weak competition. The guy was good but he wasn't challenged. Because you wrote: "you can't just piss on someone's game because their opposition was (supposedly) stupid", I guess we'd be turning around in a never ending circle. I feel the competition you beat shows how good you are. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Thailand was the worst. That is subjective. Again, its the chicken or the egg ... was his competition that weak or did he just play them that well? Chuay Gahn was full of people who wanted to win at all costs (aside from Jan), and he had them all under his control. I know that you value strategy above everything but strategy isn't predicting everything. Even a chess grand master doesn't calculate every possibility. Hatch and Tom both had a clear plan to the end and both adapted their plans to the changing circumstances. Having fallback options actually shows more abilities, not less. I would like to point out that I have Rich high on the list, since he pioneered the game. But he didn't play the perfect game. He didn't have an effective clear plan because he couldn't see what Sue and Kelly were doing behind his back, and he never would have known had they not turned on one another ... which had nothing to do with Hatch, so I can't credit him for that. Tom again, had a clear plan but his plan wasn't going to work unless he won immunity because he couldn't grasp the fact that people wanted to get rid of him. BTW, when I wrote that successful teams reward their leaders I didn't mean they were giving Tom the game. I meant they didn't want him voted out prematuraly. True, except Tom painted a bullseye on himself and Gregg/Jenn wanted him out prematurely. Katie wanted him out prematurely. Even Ian wanted to turn on him early. To his credit, he really took advantage of Caryn. He played her like a pawn. According to Shane, they were the ones that carried Cirie! Terry winning immunity changed the game. It wasn't about strategy anymore, it was about outlasting Terry. What move would you suggest Aras needed to do? I never said he played an amazing game but he did what he had to do. Having to go up against Terry and not being able to count on his alliance is an indication that he had to work for his win. Shane is also the person that thought he was running the game but wasn't. He was the most unaware about the game dynamics. Work a backplan with La Mina that wasn't necessarily a full on deal, but more of a truce or anything to get the target off of him from them. Pretend to want to go along with them, whatever he had to do. Instead he told them he'd rather go down than betray Casaya, which insured they would keep voting on him. In the end game, Cirie strategized for him and he did what she said. He never showed me he understood how to play a good game. He had his moments, but overall he was very MOR. I see you've dropped the arguments on Earl, Chris and Todd. Does that mean you agree, at least in part, with my arguments? I didn't notice you had arguments for them, sorry. I always think you have valid points on many aspects, we just probably view strategy differently.
panurge46		#1215	[-]
Posts: 1360 (05/25/09 9:31 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	"But (Rich) didn't play the perfect game. He didn't have an effective clear plan because he couldn't see what Sue and Kelly were doing behind his back, and he never would have known had they not turned on one another ... which had nothing to do with Hatch, so I can't credit him for that. Tom again, had a clear plan but his plan wasn't going to work unless he won immunity because he couldn't grasp the fact that people wanted to get rid of him... Gregg/Jenn wanted him out prematurely. Katie wanted him out prematurely" I think you are asking too much clairvoyance. Afterall, Erinn said she started talking to Stephen soon after the merge about voting out JT before the end game. JT didn't see it, JT needed final immunity just like Tom. You can never see everything, you need to adjust, adapt. That's what survival is all about. Todd understood that Amanda and Denise feared each other's jury potential. That was all he really needed. Aras may have done what you suggested for 1 vote but, after that, the target would have been back on and maybe he would have lost Cirie's trust. Sure he used her plans, there's nothing wrong with that, that's why even Presidents have advisors. Aras was smart to see that he needed Cirie once he got to know her. My argument on Chris was that voting out John wasn't an error of judgment. It's up there somewhere! ETA: Post 1209. I also like exchanging with someone who has valid points. I like the challenge. Last Edited By: panurge46 05/26/09 6:28 AM. Edited 1 times.
XtremeInnovator420		#1216	[-]
Posts: 1565 (05/25/09 11:10 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I really don't see how voting out John K was an error in judgement. I mean, it was pretty much potentially lose-lose for Chris at that point since John K was ready to give girls majority by voting out Chad and STILL was spewing BS about "not turning on the guys" despite doing just that. I mean, it was JK's own fault that he made himself incredibly untrustworthy and seem more likely to flip than either of the two girls. I've said in the past that that probably could've been avoided if John K went instead of Brady and Brady was in John's place, but that's obviously nothing but a lot of spec on my part and I'm not about to act like it's anything more than that.
chapera rocks		#1217	[-]
Posts: 11239 (05/26/09 5:34 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think you are asking too much clairvoyance. Afterall, Erinn said she started talking to Stephen soon after the merge about voting out JT before the end game. JT didn't see it, JT needed final immunity just like Tom. You can never see everything, you need to adjust, adapt. That's what survival is all about. You're very right, but you're wrong in that JT didn't know it. JT did know it and he's told us he knew it. While he and Tom were in a similar situation where no one wanted them in the final 3, JT was at least aware of it and took out his challenge competitors. He was still aware of what was going on throughout the game. A player like JT or Tom would have a very hard time finding someone to take them to the end, but at least JT knew it and planned for it, while Tom was always surprised and got upset. JT had enough good connections to get him to final 5. Tom had people trying to stab him in the back left and right and their plans fell through due to other people screwing up, while he remained obvlivious (in the case of Gregg/Jenn) or he won immunity (in the case of final 5/4). Todd understood that Amanda and Denise feared each other's jury potential. That was all he really needed. Except Denise thought she could beat anyone, and Amanda still considered getting rid of Todd. And he had no idea, he didn't even entertain the possibility. Aras may have done what you suggested for 1 vote but, after that, the target would have been back on and maybe he would have lost Cirie's trust. Sure he used her plans, there's nothing wrong with that, that's why even Presidents have advisors. Aras was smart to see that he needed Cirie once he got to know her. Now I do agree it was smart to have Cirie there, but that doesn't make him a better winner than someone who played and made their own moves. Especially when Cirie was playing for Cirie and so whatever her game plan was, it benefited Cirie more than Aras. Aras should have taken the initiative to make the game go how he wanted it, IMO. My argument on Chris was that voting out John wasn't an error of judgment. It's up there somewhere! I believe I did respond to this, and I thought you dropped it. Chris had John at his mercy. Chris was well connected with every man. Rory, Chad, Sarge, John all had him as number one. He didn't need Julie, who has every reason to lie about her loyalty. At least Twila had more in common with them. Julie over John was the obvious vote.
panurge46		#1218	[-]
Posts: 1361 (05/26/09 7:05 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: You're very right, but you're wrong in that JT didn't know it. JT did know it and he's told us he knew it. While he and Tom were in a similar situation where no one wanted them in the final 3, JT was at least aware of it and took out his challenge competitors... JT had enough good connections to get him to final 5. Tom had people trying to stab him in the back left and right and their plans fell through due to other people screwing up, while he remained obvlivious (in the case of Gregg/Jenn) or he won immunity (in the case of final 5/4). From what I heard, JT only found out that Stephen wasn't taking him when Erinn told him after the F3 IC. He had suspicions before that but he was still going along with whatever Stephen wanted. Voting out Brendan, Coach and Debbie was better for Stephen than JT. Tom didn't know that Ian was planning to double-cross him but he mainly did what was best for himself, not what was best for Ian. Only the Caryn vote was better for Ian than Tom but, by then, Caryn had done what was asked of her. And you are wrong when you write that JT had no one who wanted him in the F3. Brendan, Coach, Taj and Debbie all wanted him in the F3. That explains his good connections and is the main difference between JT and Tom. JT eliminated all those players who wanted to give him the check. Tom's opposition was at least trying to win the money even if they screwed up. Now, understand that I don't really want to put JT down, it's just that I think you underestimate Tom's game. About Chris: "I believe I did respond to this, and I thought you dropped it." I was talking about your comment that Yasur was united, unlike Timbira. Chris knew that Yasur wasn't united. Julie, at the time of the John K vote, had no alliance left in the women's camp because Mia and Lisa had been voted out.
Kirblar		#1219	[-]
Posts: 7914 (05/26/09 11:45 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Keeping Julie over John was not a mistake- in postgame interviews John said he would have 100% flipped on the men at the merge- meaning that Julie was actually the lesser risk. They read the situation correctly.
XtremeInnovator420		#1220	[-]
Posts: 1570 (05/27/09 12:04 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, I remember reading that, too. That's actually part of the reason I think it was a mistake for Chris to leave John K as the last young guy left as opposed to Brady, but I'm sure he had his reasons.

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