S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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Warrior		#381	[-]
Posts: 2926 (09/23/09 09:41 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Strangers have the best candy. Don't be tempted Remove this ad INTRO Jeff: "Though they've not yet spoken, first impressions are all ready forming." Brett: "This lady with her free flowing Mohawk is probably some super outdoors woman that will naturally step forth as our leader." Shambo: "Dude, I'm a people (mad man?) (cut) People gravitate to me my entire life. It's like, Oh my God this chick rocks. We love her." Marisa: "There's a guy that looks tough as nails. He looks like a bit bull. He's like…I wouldn't want to mess with him that's for sure." Evil Russell: I plan on making it as miserable as possible. Making it hell for everybody (cut) to get what I want." Betsy: "When I first started being a police officer I believed every single person I meet, but now I don't believe anybody anymore." 20 strangers forced to live together while battling the elements and each other. They must learn to adapt or they'll be voted out In the end only one will remain to claim the million dollar prize. "39 days, 20 people, One Survivor" First confessional "Like, kind of like a deer in headlights (cut) taking on a leadership role in game like Survivor is a death wish." Second confessioanl "I do have leadership qualities. Being in the operating room you have to make some snap decisions. To get through med school you have to have more than a note from Mom and residency." Third confessional "My nickname has been Shambo since 86. I was in the United States Marine Corp and Rambo had the same bandana I had so everybody was like Shanon, Shambo, Rambo, Shambo. So that's my game name. That's what I'm here to do is to play." Forth Confessional "I really wasn't really surprised that I wasn't written down as the leader. But I really don't see anybody else as a country boy. I've shot and killed and cleaned just about everything that your allowed to in Missouri and probably a few things your not. So I've done all this stuff before and I think that a lot of these people are kinda candy asses." Fifth Confessional "I'm scared; this leadership thing can go south real quick. The highest nail definitely get pounded down in this game and right now I'm like SKY HIGH." Episode One Before The Intro Erinn: "The tall spiky hair model boy (Tyson) …love him. He seems like a good guy to have around." Tyson: "The younger brunette (Erinn), she comes off to me as being the bitch." Stephan: "We have the strung out old lady (Sandy) and it is sort of encouraging to have her because you know your not going to be the first to go." Sandy: "The real tall boy (Stephan) I think he's like a geek. I think I should be able to lead him around real easy." Sierra: "I've been sick. I got some bad tonsils (cut) So I kinda gotta hide it (cut) so I don't get voted out." Ben: "This blond…I have an unfortunate feeling she's gonnna crumble." Jeff: "They come from different walks of life. 16 Americans forced to work together to create a new society while battling the elements and each other. They must learn to adapt Or they'll be voted out." In the end only 1 will remain to claim the million dollar prize. 39 days…16 people…1 survivor INTRO Ben gets the opening scenes first confessional "Game On" Spencer gets 2^nd.confessional. He is the youngest contestant…the trek to camp was hot and hard. JT gets the 3^rd. confessional. He is a country boy that is accustomed to the weather. He can fish and provide but needs to "fit in" with the people. Stephan gets the 4^th confessional He said he saw the country boy (JT) and now thinks that he is "screwed" He doesn't think that he will get along with JT. Erinn gets the 5^th.confessional. "What the hell am I doing out here." Jerry gets the 6^th. confessional. Just got back from Afghanistan…trying to keep low key…doesn't want to be in charge. Knows that leaders are targets. Ben also gets the 7^th. confessional. He says that he is a renaissance man. He tells us who he is and what he does for a living. Brendan gets the 8^th. confessional. After seeing Ben try and make an alliance with him he tells us that his talk with Ben has him "throwing up the red flag" He does not want Ben in the process of winning the game. The 9^th. and final confessional of the opening scene goes to Sandy. Before she disembarks the helicopter she tells us that she is "Pissed". Last Edited By: Warrior 09/23/09 12:51 PM. Edited 1 times.
chaperone		#382	[-]
Posts: 2734 (09/23/09 10:30 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	That's awesome, Warrior, thanks! Do you have all the seasons' You could start a whole offshoot analysis of the intros...and from your caps, strictly from them, I'd put my early bet on Ben or Shambo. Shambo would be first, then Ben.
GoHomeAndEatYoRice		#383	[-]
Posts: 1655 (09/23/09 10:34 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I have my beats with this on Betsy, or Shambo. But, I'm not sure.
Oowatanite		#384	[-]
Posts: 8648 (09/23/09 10:58 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I agree with Warrior .......... ~~Erinn~~ Monica wins !!
GoHomeAndEatYoRice		#385	[-]
Posts: 1667 (09/23/09 11:00 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	If Monica wins, then best winner ever. <3
matty p		#386	[-]
Posts: 332 (09/23/09 11:11 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	So if last season's pattern holds true for this season we can expect most of these characters to be central to the season and potentially post-merge players: Brett Shambo Russell H Betsy Monica Mick Ben Russell S That's not really surprising considering Russell H, Shambo, Russell S, Betsy and Ben already look like they will be the big characters. Mick, as the other tribe leader, I guess would also be expected to be included during the opening sequence, but it could be the foreshadowing of him as a major player and potential winner. As other people have noted, the inclusion of Monica seems a bit strange and could potentially point towards her being the winner, or maybe the last member of Galu surviving.
Niczez.votefortheworst		#387	[-]
Posts: 8 (09/23/09 11:23 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I really enjoy the screencap analysis, Warrior. Thank you. I think it's interesting to compare Mick's introduction to Russell S., the other chosen leader. Russell's talk is ALL about being chosen leader, no mention of who he is or what he has to offer. Mick, on the other hand, doesn't get a chance to react to being chosen leader (until later when he shifts responsibility onto Ben) and tells us who he is and what he has to offer in his confessional. Russell's role in the rest of the episode stays static, he is the leader, for better or for worse, and the cheerleader. Mick kind of fades into the background and this issue of his leadership is dropped pretty quickly. You could argue that Mick's leadership is dropped because Russell H. was a much bigger story, but in that same vein, Russell S.'s leadership could have been dropped for the brewing Shambo/John conflict. I read it as Russell S.'s story is short-lived and not terribly complex. He's being set up as a failed leader by Shambo and probably doesn't have much more to add to the story. Mick strikes me as being more deliberately hidden . . . again, I'm convinced he has the most winner potential thus far.
craig		#388	[-]
Posts: 16160 (09/23/09 12:15 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ashley's Tone - Neutral This one deserved to be a close call. At first I leanied "N" but ultrimately this involves too much "guilt by asssociation" with MR NN Russell. 1. Did Ashley decide to allign with the villian? No he appraoched her. Since other people wanted to vote HER off, she has more excuse for voting with him than anyone else. 2. Yeah she was referred to as a "dumb girl" - by an OTTNN villian who looks down on others. 3. Yeah she was targeted as "weak" by the good guys - but this wasn't reinforced by challenge or camp footage or detailed slagging of Ashley. Since when does merely being considered weak make a player N? 4. Yeah, she wasn't as sharp as Betsy or Marisa is catching onto Russell - but neither were the other 6 people who voted out Marisa. Since when does being naive make you N? Debbie was shown as naive and alligned with N characters last year, but was never N premerge. Last Edited By: craig 09/23/09 12:19 PM. Edited 1 times.
Warrior		#389	[-]
Posts: 2927 (09/23/09 12:24 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of the five confesisionals #1 Monica says being the leader is a "death wish" in this game. #2 Mick tells us why he will be a good leader #3 Shambo wants to be the leader. #4 Ben tells us why he should be the leader. #5 Russell S. tells us there is danger in being the leader and he is in trouble. Only Russell S's edit shows us doubt. He is trouble all ready and Monica confirms it. Last season. J.T. told us that he can fish and provide but needs to "fit in" with the people. The Wizard said he saw the country boy (JT) and now thinks that he is "screwed" He doesn't think that he will get along with JT. J.T. and Stephen's edit showed doubt. Advantage...Russell S. They must learn to adapt or they'll be voted out Or they'll be voted out." Last Edited By: Warrior 09/23/09 12:33 PM. Edited 1 times.
chaperone		#390	[-]
Posts: 2735 (09/23/09 02:03 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Strangers have the best candy. Don't be tempted Remove this ad Warrior wrote: Shambo: "Dude, I'm a people (mad man?) (cut) People gravitate to me my entire life. It's like, Oh my God this chick rocks. We love her." BTW, Warrior, I think she said "people magnet".
fat little fingers		#391	[-]
Posts: 6234 (09/23/09 02:12 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hidy-ho everybody. Sorry for flaking out this week. I am totally out of things at this point. My house is full of urethane fumes for the next few days and my neighbor's computer is unavailable. I'm writing this while sitting in brain-destroying urethane fumes... gff, I'd like you to make any Close Call votes until I'm able to be more responsible! Warrior, love the Opening Credits break-down. I also am sticking with the idea that our winner is there. It only stands to reason that the winner's story will start, even if just in a small way, at the very beginning. I like Russel S' lines, too. I loved his comment that, "...The highest nail gets pounded down in this game, and right now, I'm like sky-high!" His comment is game-savvy and shows self-awareness. And Monica puts him immediately at deadly risk, "...Taking a leadership role in a game like Survivor is a death wish!" In contrast, Mick's comment is all confidence. First titled confessionals: Marisa Monica focuses on the leadership pick. She's "like a deer in the headlights!" Not a likely candidate. Mick is Mr.Leadership. Too confident in himself. Only way left is down... Ben is sulky and full of himself. He's arrogantly cocky and self-confident that he's better than these "candy-asses". Hunting and building stuff? That's not what Survivor is about. Russel S: He's talking about the game. He's thinking and wary. Good first comment. 1st Commercial Break Jaison: "...I played water polo..., so I'd like to think I'm a pretty good swimmer!" Your classic "I am here for the challenges!" 1st confessional. Not good! Liz: She's concerned about being racially stereotyped. It's good for self-awareness of game position. Weak, but not as bad as some. 1st Challenge starts. If I was to go by the opening confessionals, Good Russel pretty much stands alone. Betsy's opening confessional is part of the unlabeled intro, but we learn she's a cop and she doesn't trust people. This theme continues for her, which is a good thing. Shambo gets lots of un-named intro too. And she tells us later that she's there "to play the game." Unlikely, but I like "game" comments. Jeff also kept her theme going at the challenge with, ",,,She was worried if she was going to be smart enough!" Evil Russel gets his opening intro too. And he's all about how he's gonna play his game. But he's overboard confident and has others commenting about how they're starting to see through his game already. Still, he has a great line, "I didn't come to work. I came to play." p.s.: I'll be pretty-much out of the Edgic picture until early next week. (edited to fix the Marisa-Monica typo.) Last Edited By: fat little fingers 09/23/09 10:27 PM. Edited 2 times.
guatemala fanfic		#392	[-]
Posts: 5212 (09/23/09 02:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	gff, I'd like you to make any Close Call votes until I'm able to be more responsible! Thank you. I will be happy to do so. I'm not sure if you'll see this before tomorrow, but do you have an opinion on John and Ben?
unduli clone		#393	[-]
Posts: 7456 (09/23/09 02:51 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: My driving reasoning behind the MORs for them both is the UTR and OTT mix. Many people gave John UTRN and others OTTN, and UTR + OTT is classic MOR criterium. Ben, we learned something about him, he was a bit of an ass, but I felt like his edit was muffled. A mix of ratings, but nothing strong enough to go either way. I agree that there is a clear seperation between visibility and ratings, but when one's visiblity (Russell) takes up so much airtime, certain characters are forced into UTR + x ratings, which in a lot of my ratings this episode resulted in MOR. Sometimes you just have a feeling with some edgic ratings after doing it for so long, and my gut feels MOR, and I'm sticking to it, even after reading the guidelines. I totally see OTT too, and probably would have gone that way if they had received more. Taking this along with your Russell was such a driving force neither John nor Ben can be OTTN, I'm just not buying it. I felt that pretty much all of John and Ben's edit wasn't OTT + UTR; it was OTT + INV. When they were on screen, they were being OTT, with the minor exception of Ben's early confessional. I understand that some nice UTR footage - mild sentences, narrative confessionals, etc, along with some nice OTT moments would possibly balance out to a MOR, but I think that nearly every time Ben or John had a presence on-screen they were edited to be OTT, and OTTN on top of that. OTT + UTR = MOR, in some cases. OTT + INV = OTT - if they're OTT whenever you see them, they're OTT overall. craig wrote: Ashley's Tone - Neutral This one deserved to be a close call. At first I leanied "N" but ultrimately this involves too much "guilt by asssociation" with MR NN Russell. 1. Did Ashley decide to allign with the villian? No he appraoched her. Since other people wanted to vote HER off, she has more excuse for voting with him than anyone else. 2. Yeah she was referred to as a "dumb girl" - by an OTTNN villian who looks down on others. 3. Yeah she was targeted as "weak" by the good guys - but this wasn't reinforced by challenge or camp footage or detailed slagging of Ashley. Since when does merely being considered weak make a player N? 4. Yeah, she wasn't as sharp as Betsy or Marisa is catching onto Russell - but neither were the other 6 people who voted out Marisa. Since when does being naive make you N? Debbie was shown as naive and alligned with N characters last year, but was never N premerge. 1. Remember that we're referring to the edit here, not the game logic. Yes, it made perfect sense for Ashley to vote out Marisa; no, it was not a decision supported by the editors. 2. We've discussed this one plenty of times with various players - does NSPV from N characters still get N? It's been debated back and forth, and I think that, in this case, it deserves an N. She was considered the dumb girl by Russell, and her animal lover confessional, along with her flippant attitude at TC (called out by Probst), reinforced what Russell was preaching. The edit told us that Ashley was a dumb blonde in addition to what Russell told us. 3. I didn't consider the fact that she's "weak" a part of her N edit, other than her snapping at Betsy at TC. I don't think we need reinforced footage showing us that Ashley really is weak to give her an N for the episode. 4. The other six people who voted for Marisa weren't edited as dumb. Ashley has been shown as naive, as careless about her game, and as the antithesis to P character Marisa. She was also far more defined than Debbie ever was pre-merge, which may be one reason Debbie didn't get an N. chapera rocks wrote: I think edgic should also be implemented in picking end gamers. The final 4 or 5. Just some thoughts on the players: I agree with this, to some extent. After Gabon, I was worried of picking a winner and tried to focus on eliminating non-winners instead for Tocantins. While this did help me "predict" the end-game (I eliminated all but Tyson, Erinn, Stephen and J.T. at the merge), it's also heavily unreliable, since people like Darrah, Jenn, Lydia, and Natalie can sink straight to the end-game with lackluster edits. I do think it's important to pay attention to heavy manipulation, though. Many people recognized the manipulation that the editors were giving us in Erinn's edit last year, and lo and behold, she was in the end-game. Usually the editors' heavy hands are reserved for important players, whether they're in the finals or have some sort of strong say on the winner.
Kitty Pryde1		#394	[-]
Posts: 10655 (09/23/09 02:57 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	For the record, Bob got the second confessional of Gabon, and his wasn't subtitled. So the subtitled vs. non-subtitled thing isn't necessarily a sure thing.
OnlyTheHunter		#395	[-]
Posts: 2012 (09/23/09 04:08 PM) Edgician Reply Quote More Recent Posts	for Abby Thanks for the heady praise, but I can't be as smart as the Wizard. Unlike the Wizard, I make complete sense all the way through, then, like picking Ken and Stephen, implode at the end. The Wizard wouldn't...oh. Sorry, man! :-) The winner, sans Tina, is show within 30 minutes. Usually before the first break. Somehow, someway. One of those things that's "unwritten" but holds up so well. Me, I try to look what is forced into the opening. China, you have the opening ceremony, but before the break they make time to define Todd. Why? It was a strange time to do it. Aras' opening scene, that was necessary? Well, if he won it was. Betsy was odd, introduced herself and her job, plus a stance of not trusting, thrown in by itself. Later on it is reinforced. Why? She didn't play a role in picking anyone, winning a challenge, or eliminating anyone. Why pit her against Russell? That isn't Leslie, who was only about herself. Betsy is setup as a counterpoint to Russell, with even him watching out for her. Why that buiildup? Could be an early boot. But compared to who's left? I have to think highly of that intention. Michael
AbbyGirl		#396	[-]
Posts: 54 (09/23/09 04:23 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'm glad I started the discussion about intro credits/confessionals. I think it can help us to see the post merge players and eventually pick our winner out of those people. Warrior, I love you! Thanks for showing the comparisons of this season and last like no one else could do! :) FLF, I think it was you that said Good Russell has a better chance than Mick in winning since he showed doubt as a leader and Mick was over confident. I didn't see it that way, but it gives me something to think about. Anyone think Ben could be either the F2 loser or the next Brian type winner? Betsy is still a top winner pick for me, unless she goes next which could very well happen. I hope not, I really like her! Monica's intro is similar to Erinn's, not quite as good since Erinn had more to say about herself. Still... it could mean Monica goes far, she was stuck in there for a reason. Erik....who knows? He wasn't there in the beginning but he could go far. I will have to keep an eye on him. Any thoughts about Erik's chances of winning?
Warrior		#397	[-]
Posts: 2928 (09/23/09 04:58 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	gff...Please.
guatemala fanfic	CLOSE CALLS	#398	[-]
Posts: 5213 (09/23/09 07:03 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Warrior wrote: gff...Please. Oh, I didn't realize I was doing the Close Calls outside of rating also. Rating Ben: OTT John: OTT For the reasons I stated in several posts on the last page, and for unduli clone's reasons also. Visibility John: 3 He got several instances of SPV, attention during the opening challenge, and a significant portion of Galu's only scene devoted to him. If people like Liz and Jaison are 2s, then John is clearly a step up as a 3, and he falls below all the people with 4s, so 3 is the perfect number for him. Now for the difficult one... Tone Ashley: N This was extremely hard for me to decide, as I wasn't sure that she deserved a full-blown N. I rated her Mixed. However, I have reviewed all of the cases posted on the last 3 pages and there are a lot of strong arguments for N from 9RedWing19, unduli clone, vizcez, and OnlyTheHunter (who voted N). I also read craig's case and agree that he makes some great points, many of which I was thinking too. My responses... 2. Yeah she was referred to as a "dumb girl" - by an OTTNN villian who looks down on others. I can see how the editing enforced this, though, with Ashley getting the confessional about Katrina showing that she bought Russell's story, while Marisa (her P foil) became skeptical of him and questioned him. 3. Yeah she was targeted as "weak" by the good guys - but this wasn't reinforced by challenge or camp footage or detailed slagging of Ashley. Since when does merely being considered weak make a player N? This I agree on. The fact that it wasn't reinforced by the editing was interesting, but I think that because Betsy (a P character) called Ashley on being the weakest at Tribal Council we're supposed to believe it. I don't think being called weak makes her N. 4. Yeah, she wasn't as sharp as Betsy or Marisa is catching onto Russell - but neither were the other 6 people who voted out Marisa. Since when does being naive make you N? Debbie was shown as naive and alligned with N characters last year, but was never N premerge. True. But I think you're missing one thing which is the strongest argument for her being N and that is being called out by Jeff at Tribal Council for her comments about the game and saying "it is what it is." Jeff saying "Why not just vote her out?!" implied that it was a negative statement and then she said she didn't regret it when he gave her a chance to take it back. Generally, the audience is meant to agree with Jeff and I think that was the case here. Do I think it's a weak N? Yes. But I think it's better to have a rating that reflects there were clear instances of N tone. Mixed doesn't really work in the end because there wasn't clear positivity to balance out those little N moments...
Phoenix1269		#399	[-]
Posts: 699 (09/23/09 08:20 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	OnlyTheHunter wrote: Off topic - The Tocanshins Edgic thread is still on page one - before it falls away, who do we ask to move it to the attic? Michael hey OTH.... there is no attic anymore... everything is just hanging around like a lot of flotsam and jetsam. and thanks for the nice comments on the website. and regarding the drop down thing... really, Chaperone is the one to thank for that, but it looks kinda like this: <select size="1" name="Winner1" id="Select1" onchange="RemoveSelectionFromOtherSelects(this, Winner2, Winner3);"> and you put that at the start of each of the three selections, only the "Winner" bits change depending on it's position. ie. this was selection 1 (which = this) and W2 & W3 are the direction to remove the name. did that make any sense??
Phoenix1269		#400	[-]
Posts: 700 (09/23/09 08:23 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Strangers have the best candy. Don't be tempted Remove this ad BTW.... even though i haven't had a chance to finish off my rating for E1... I agree with the close-calls from gff. i think Ashley was intended to be more N than neutral. Her TC performance was really unlikeable. -- i'll be popping in and ou tover the next while, not a lot of time for in depth posting right now, bit i love reading what everyone has to say! and Warrior... thanks for the E! comparisons.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)