The only reasonable edgic pics should be Ashley, Mick, Liz and Jaison. I'm putting my money on Ashley.
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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)
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 SurvivorNinja |
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Posts: 2519 (09/25/09 12:56 AM) Registered user |
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RobVanStratus |
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Posts: 9238 (09/25/09 12:59 AM) Registered User |
Okay I just have to say, bravo to Russell H. for finding the idol. I don't buy into ridiculous conspiracies because the pretty girls didn't find the
idol again. He was genius to look for it, he had as good a shot as any to find it. It's been hidden at camp before and they hadn't done it since
Micronesia at the F6 and before that for all season being at camp it was China, season before that one. Russell obviously pays attention to the show and the
idol and props to him for finding IN FRONT OF EVERYONE.
And man, did I ever get a kick square in the balls for picking Betsy as my #1 last week. I did NOT expect her to fizzle out so quickly, she seemed like she was built for a nice story of defeating the evil Russell in the end. Onto my ratings FOA FOA Ashley - CP4 Strategy session with Russell about who to vote off, giving us insight on why the vote is going the way it is. Also discussed with Elizabeth how the last vote was a mistake and they couldn't afford to dump Ben over Betsy like they did with Marisa over Mike. Ben - OTTNN4 Obviously after his behavior this episode, he gets OTTNN. Racial comments about Yasmin, getting kicked out of the challenge, causing chaos in camp, and not caring that he caused the loss for his tribe, shows no self-awareness. He's written himself a ticket for a boot at the merger by Galu after this debacle, if the tribes stay the same and Foa Foa keeps getting pummeled and they don't vote his ignorant ass off. Betsy - OTTP4 Didn't see the complexity in the edit for Betsy. Yes she tried to save herself, but nothing behind it other than "Woman's intuition." It's a shame she got the boot, she seemed like a great lady and I still don't see where she was so weak in challenges. Similar to Mike's edit this episode, it was all about her trying to redeem herself to the tribe but wasn't able to. Except she came off as a more positive figure than Mike. Elizabeth - CP4 Got into her head on the strategy behind the boot for Betsy. She explained her choices to us and why each of them could benefit her. Good episode for her. Jaison - CP4 Formed an alliance with the devil himself, Russell H. Thinks he's got it in good with Russell H. and from what we heard from Russ himself, Jaison is in good with him. Russell H. sees him as the one person he can truly trust and if Jaison knew that, he could use that to his advantage over Russell. Mick - MORP4 I didn't see the complexity in his edit like others have. Didn't get personal insight on his strategy about anything. He made observational comments about how Ben is digging a hole for himself, but didn't talk to us about the conflict with the vote. Definitely a positive because he still appeared to be in favor of Besty, as well as coming off as the voice of reason almost, especially with the Mike situation. Mike - OTT3 One note, all about challenge performance and proving himself. Don't see him as positive or negative, more mixed. Talked some smack about how he'd prove himself and then some positivity with his tribe clearly upset he had to leave. Natalie - INV1 Who? Sorry but that scene where she mumbled out a short sentence doesn't cut it for me. Still have no idea who she is. Russell H. - CPN5 Another great episode for Russell. Genius to search for the idol. Why wait for clues if you can find it beforehand and stop anyone from getting it? Formed another new alliance with Jaison, explained it to us and placed trust in him. Also set up Ashley to be his next target because she may be onto him. GALU Brett - INV1 Pretty self explanatory. Dave - INV1 See the other INV1's Erik - INV1 Duh. John - INV1 Seriously? Kelly - INV1 Really editors, wtf? Laura - UTRN1 Undeserved cheapshot at Shambo. We heard from Shambo that it was hard to catch the fish out there and it was proven by the lack of fish when she came back. Backhanded comment at a big star in Galu is definitely deserving of a N. Monica - UTR1 Heard from her, but not too much about anything. But still, we heard her talking and we know who she is, far more than most of her tribe and practically half the cast. Russell S. - INV1 There goes another winner choice! Shambo - MOR2 Got her own individual scene, which is great for her that she got separate, alone time in the episode from Galu. Nothing really strategic from her, but getting to know more about Shambo in the game was good. Although this can definitely be debated as UTR2. Yasmin - OTTM5 Oh Yasmin, you get a huge spike in airtime this week. Came off as very bossy and abrasive to Foa Foa, but in the beginning she had hilarious commentary about surviving in the wild and how people try to compare it to the hood. Argues with Ben and while he has a point that no rule was made about tackling women, he came off as the bigger ass for his comments. Yasmin did insult Foa Foa, but Ben made a racially charged comment. In comparison with Ben, she came off more mixed from her beginning comments to the Foa Foa conflict. Had it just been Foa Foa conflict, I could see the N votes, but she had positive moments at the beginning. Winner's List 1. Shambo - Good episode for Shambo. That scene all for herself was great, she's the star of Galu and probably the best choice for a winner from them, barring a Bob/Danni like winner from Monica. 2. Russell H. - Moves up in my winner list this week. He is a very smart guy and the whole tribe is still wrapped around his finger. He tells the tribe to jump and they ask how high. If he can dump Jaison like he wants to in the preview for next week, he might be unstoppable with Mick as his only real opposition. 3. Ashley - Again, another good episode for her. She isn't as dumb as she looks and Russell H. still sees her as an idiot, pegging her to go next. While he's had a track record of 2-0 on this for Marisa and Betsy, I think Ashley is going to slip through the cracks like week 1. 4. Elizabeth - Wow, didn't expect her to shoot up after the first episode. She seemed quiet, but she had a confessional connecting her to the theme of leadership and how first impressions impacted her game. Then this week she visibly strategized about where to go and was able to recognize the mistake of keeping Mike over Marisa. Still in contention 1. Mick - Now he's turning into a Marcus. I can't really eliminate him yet, but he does have some good points left. Like how they didn't show anything about his tribe being upset that he voted against the majority. They might have said nothing, but it could also be hidden. 2. Jaison - Interesting first start in the first episode and this week he starts into the gameplay of it all. Not as strong as Mick, but he's still viable compared to the huge list that had been eliminated. 3. Monica Eliminated - All due to INV, except Ben, who just is a one note, OTTN character. No complexity like Russell H, who's negativity is at least explained to us as strategy, not just being a dick to be one. 1. Ben 2. Brett 3. Dave 4. Erik 5. John 6. Kelly 7. Laura 8. Natalie 9. Russell S. 10. Yasmin I'll post my chart later and maybe it will change from the ratings I've posted, depending on the rewatch and reading what everyone else has to say. |
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juppiter |
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Posts: 53 (09/25/09 01:16 AM) |
I've gotta agree with Sninja! Ashley, Mick, Liz and Jaison are the only acceptible edgic picks. But I just really don't think edgic applies this
season.
And I really hope that after next TC they will swap. Something's gotta happen soon to save this season. So far it is my least favorite season ever. And I'm not like CSCin3D, I don't just say that every season. I loved Gabon and Tocantins is somewhere in the middle for me. ALSO, I knew that Betsy would be the Margaret to Russell's Judd. And I didn't post it. Damn me. I look like a Monday Morning Quarterback now, but I really did think that after the premiere. Though I thought she'd make it a bit further, I knew she was pre-jury fodder. |
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SkyDreamer |
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Posts: 151 (09/25/09 03:01 AM) |
I'm staying with my original pick of Ashely as the winner. I don't really see anyone who has a better chance, so far. I think Stephen was right to say
that Jaison's edit was manipulative - his second episode edit was good, but he wasn't featured a lot in the premiere, and that is what counts. Ashely
was visible during the first episode and we got to see her defending herself. In this episode, we got an inside to Ashely's strategy, and we were able to
see her reasons for voting Betsy or Ben. We'll have to see what happens in the next few episodes, but right now she's my top contendor.
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matty p |
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Posts: 337 (09/25/09 03:08 AM) |
I think we're being set up for a girls alliance prevailing (women's intuition etc).
I think the editing is pointing towards an Ashley vs Monica final, with Ashley my pick to win. Risky pick though considering Russell may target Ashley next week, but I think that was just to create doubt about the winner in the viewers' minds. |
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5812 (09/25/09 04:59 AM) MESS member |
It seems as though instead of relying on any sort of Edgic rules, we are simply scrambling to look at ANYONE with airtime whatsoever.
That vague criteria narrows down a cast of 20 to only about 8 people. That's pretty sad. But, if nothing else, it gives us something to focus on. The only people with airtime are: Ashley, Liz, Jaison, Mick, Russell H, Ben, Shambo, and Russell S (I don't count Jasmin). Ben can easily be eliminated, leaving 7. Russell S got a quick invisible so he may be eliminated soon. Russell H is NOT eliminated due to a screwy season. |
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Niczez.votefortheworst |
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Posts: 9 (09/25/09 05:57 AM) |
My first impressions of the episode:
On the whole: It seemed oddly short. Maybe because there was no Reward Challenge? Was that time eaten up with ER finding the HII and Mike's evacuation? I kept waiting for something else to happen, even as they were sitting down at TC. Betsy: I figured she was toast about halfway through, but it seemed like an odd exit. I wouldn't be surprised with an outcast twist. Yasmin: I don't know why there's any debate, she was clearly negative. When has someone who doesn't like the outdoors and has no desire to change that been positive on Survivor? The scene with her bitching about the woods at Galu was clearly included so that we continued to dislike her, even if she was arguing with OTT racist Ben. Mick: Still my #1 winner pick. His edit struck me, once again, as the most manipulated. Someone is working really hard to keep him in our view but out of the ER/Ben/OTT muck. I see so many obvious "choices" made with his edit. I hope to compile them all for you all to read. The Marcus objection has merit and I hope to do some comparison to see if their edits are really as similiar as some are recalling. I personally remember Marcus being a lot more visible early on, but I have to check the stats to back that up. Liz: Earned her way onto my potential winner list tonight. Like Mick, she seems to be being kept in view but a step removed from the ER/Ben/OTT muck. She's not as strong to me, because we've gotten less of who she is outside the game and nothing about how others see her. Natalie: 
Monica: I'm not drinking the kool-aid on this one. I think she's been included because she's articulate and insightful. Galu needs some sort of narrator and she's providing it. If she was seriously in contention, she would be commenting more on herself or strategy. Even her leadership confessional from EP1 was in reaction to leaders being chosen. |
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augustus713 |
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Posts: 140 (09/25/09 07:09 AM) |
matty p wrote: Kids, don't smoke weed and post on the internet at the same time. There is NOTHING to point to an Ashley vs Monica final besides whatever you may have dreamed of in your sleep. |
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dennydoylelives |
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Posts: 2932 (09/25/09 07:21 AM) Registered User |
RobVanStratus wrote: 
As far as Russell not being taken down by Betsy, don't be worried about it too bad. He'll take out anyone he perceives as a threat. The way the story is going, his comeupance will come from somebody he underestimates. If I had to make a guess right now, I'd say it will be one of the dumb blondes that takes him out. I also don't go with the conspiracy theory on the idol. Anybody who was smart enough to watch a few recent seasons of the show before appearing on it would know that the possibility exists that an idol could be at camp. With all the free time on their hands, looking for an idol that may or may not be there gives a person something to do. Because after the shelter is built, and the fire started, there's not much to do except look for food, strategize and shmooze. And if anyone did call him on it, it's easy enough to say "I'm looking for grubs or bugs or something for protein." It's more a matter of being observant than being brilliant. |
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guatemala fanfic |
Idol | ||
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Posts: 5226 (09/25/09 07:25 AM) |
I also don't go with the conspiracy theory on the idol. Anybody who was smart enough to watch a few recent seasons of the show before appearing on it would know that the possibility exists that an idol could be at camp. With all the free time on their hands, looking for an idol that may or may not be there gives a person something to do. Because after the shelter is built, and the fire started, there's not much to do except look for food, strategize and shmooze. And if anyone did call him on it, it's easy enough to say "I'm looking for grubs or bugs or something for protein." It's more a matter of being observant than being brilliant. I agree with that. This is obviously unrelated to Edgic, but I also think it's possible that that scene took place after Yasmin had been kidnapped and was inserted before the challenge simply because it worked better with the structure of the episode. It could have been Jeff giving Yasmin the "Open in Private" note that reminded Russell of China and made him consider an idol being at camp since that's what happened in China. He still wouldn't have had any clues, as Jaison and Russell said. But the note to Yasmin could have tipped him off that there might be an idol. Still, if I was on the show, I would definitely have been looking for an idol at camp because it's been done so many times before that there was a good likelihood, so I do applaud Russell for taking the initiative either way. |
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JT4ever |
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Posts: 43 (09/25/09 07:36 AM) |
guatemala fanfic wrote:Not likely. The entire tribe is around the fire when they see Russell burrowing into that tree and he tells them he's looking for the idol. Nothing about the dynamic in that moment suggests Yasmin was around. Russell deserves all the credit for getting off his ass and taking a chance. What Yasmin's visit tells him is that he needs to find a way to get his butt sent over to Galu pronto. Unfortunately for him, Jaison most likely has the same thought now. Hence the emerging conflict. Edited: On further review, it looks like Mike is MIA during that scene. I still doubt that scene happened during Yasmin's visit (the tribal body language just doesn't fit), but as you said, it's possible...
Last Edited By: JT4ever
09/25/09 08:05 AM.
Edited 3 times.
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I LUV TIJUANA |
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Posts: 15522 (09/25/09 07:52 AM) Registered user |
Edgically, I think Ashley should be watched carefully. After a second viewing, her confessionals are placed very interestingly and her edit is
crafted well. Mick is second in line, but I fear he's another Brendan. A fluke. Nobody else looks that good.
I agree with some that this could be a Danni/Bob/Vecepia "Type B" winner for Samoa. If that's the case it's hard to rule anyone out. The way Galu has been completely ignored is frightening. Based on the sheer volume of INV's, I think the only ones who can elimiante are Brett and Kelly, who both had two INV's in a row. Consider Dave, Erik and Laura on life support. With Monica and Russell S just above them. If we're looking at a type B winner, John, Shambo, Yasmin, Russell H and Ben can be ignored. |
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scepticA |
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Posts: 1690 (09/25/09 07:59 AM) Registered User |
One thing I like about Liz's chances are that she is not within the world of Russell H. She hasn't mentioned him significantly, nor he her (she's
not one of his idiot females, or whatever he called them.) Yet she gets pretty decent airtime. Because this is Survivor: Russell so far, the edit Liz is
getting is interesting.
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JT4ever |
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Posts: 44 (09/25/09 08:05 AM) |
guatemala fanfic wrote:You know what? I think you're correct. This 
is a shot from the sequence that has Russell looking around for the idol. As you can tell, Ben has face paint on. Which he wouldn't have at this point, because they hadn't gotten tree mail yet. This suggests to me this particular moment occurs after the challenge, after knowledge that Yasmin was in possession of that piece of paper. The scene around the camp fire when Russell actually finds the idol must have happened the following day. Here's a shot of Ben's face from that scene: 
Now it's hard to say for sure, but it does kinda look he has the black eye he got from the challenge. I don't know where Yasmin is at this point. Maybe she had already gone back to Galu and this scene took place just before Foa Foa went off to TC. I can see why the editors would have moved Russell's find around to balance the episode. If they had kept things in sequence, the single challenge would have been very early in the episode, with a lot of stuff to cram in before TC. But we've had weirdly structured episodes before (e.g. when Joe got medevaced on Tocantins). I suppose the editors saw an opportunity to make Russell look even smarter than he is, and they just said, what the hell, let's do it. |
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9RedWing19 |
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Posts: 2627 (09/25/09 08:45 AM) Registered User |
menelaus wrote:I've only watched Ep 2 once, but the same thought struck me about Shambo being Kathy-S4 part deux. So that bodes well for her longevity in the game, but not for her winning chances. Given how little screentime her tribe has gotten, why would they waste it on a contestant that was a pre-merge boot? On the other hand, we have another older woman who was on the outs of her tribe and lost fishing gear - Lill. And we saw how that turned out. |
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Warrior |
Non Edgic | ||
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Posts: 2932 (09/25/09 08:58 AM) Registered User |
For all you Monica fans out there...What the heck was THIS! |
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Lemun |
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Posts: 414 (09/25/09 09:08 AM) |
What a disappointing episode editing wise and boot wise. I'm really getting tired of this Evil Russel storyline. Even the "Hidden Idol" seemed a
little contrived to me. I hope we don't have to deal with this all season long.
Galu
Erik: INV1
Shambo: MORN2 - We get doubt and Neg SPV on our hero. This was a good episode for her, as she is the only one on Galu with a freakin story.
Ben: OTTNN4 - He is a racist, sissy, outlaw loser. I have to go with a double negative because of the racist stuff that was said. This was Ben's episode
to stay or fail, and he is staying for what I think is the duration of the game. He has a chance to make it to the end with being such a poor social player. He
almost reminds me of Clay. The second runner up bad guy with no real game.
Jaison: MORP4 - We had quite a bit from our hero on the Foa Foa tribe. Jaison is my second winner's pick, but I can't imagine anyone letting him get
to the end. He is smart, athletic, and a good social player. I like Jaison a lot, and I think his story and screentime can only pick up from here.
Natalie: INV1
Last Edited By: Lemun
09/25/09 09:27 AM.
Edited 1 times.
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scepticA |
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Posts: 1691 (09/25/09 09:30 AM) Registered User |
Lemun wrote: This is a bit confusing. There is zero evidence that there is any plotting/scheming between Liz and Russell - there also isn't even any evidence that
they hate each other. The only way that the term "obviously" can be used is if this is a case of the Dog that Didn't Bark: "I can offer no
evidence, hence it must be true."
Interesting that people are comparing Shambo to Kathy. Kathy felt like an outsider, but was successful around camp (the cause of her frustration and t.ears, from what I recall). Shambo is not successful at just about anything, and thanks to her losing parts of the snorkel gear, she is as of now seen as a negative force. Also, Kathy didn't win, so any comparison of S and K would indicate that S's chances are less than stellar. By now in a season (entering episode 3) we'd have a pretty good idea who the next likely boots are in both tribes - - even if the editing is leading us away from the actual boot, there would still be something. So who are the boot possibilities in Galu? You got me. My pick for first boot right now is Shambo, if no other reason than the edit, as crappy as it is, has given us a reason why she could go. You can't say that about any other Galuoid. This is yet another example of why the editing sucks. I do wonder how the ratings will be affected by the editor's preoccupation with Russell H.
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Lemun |
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Posts: 415 (09/25/09 09:43 AM) |
Russell and Liz DID have a scene where they were shown strategizing. Russell was saying that Betsy had to be the one to go, where Liz completely agreed with
him. I thought it was odd for them to show that as we have not heard anything from Russell on Liz yet.
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I LUV TIJUANA |
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Posts: 15528 (09/25/09 09:54 AM) Registered user |
Warrior wrote: OMG. Was that in the intro? |
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