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This whole Thin Ice business seems to be something of a red herring to me.

This is a shot of Russell as he makes the threat to Liz:



I notice a couple of things:
- It's a dry, sunny day.
- Russell's beard is not nearly as full as it is in the other preview snippets from ep. 5. E.g.

this: or that:

So it's pretty clear that his threat to Liz was made well before the time frame of episode 5. For all we know, that conversation happened after the last Foa Foa TC with Liz questioning Russell about his changed vote for Ben. Or it could have been about something else entirely.

Also the confessional where Russell says the rain is making him change his strategy seems to be from some time earlier. It's raining during the confessional, but again the beard isn't as full:



And I don't think it's all just a matter of lighting. It seems to me that Russell's unbridled virility is playing havoc with the editors' routine of manipulating events. So who knows what he's actually up to next week.

If I give the editors the benefit of the doubt and concede they may be trying to tell a semi-accurate story using footage from different times, then I'll take a wild yet spoiler informed guess that the two targets Russell will be shown to be choosing between will be Ashley, whom he's been itching to eject for a while, and Jaison, who's being shown wilting in the rain.