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Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#21	[-]
Posts: 9429 (11/05/09 9:33 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thailandsurvivor wrote: Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: Haven't we done this before? F6-Amanda F5-Erik(Yes, Natalie and Alexis give up their lead to get rid of this big challenge threat) F4-Cirie or Alexis F3-Cirie or Alexis Based on challenge statistics, Parvati is a better challenge performer then Cirie, Natalie or Alexis. This strongly hints at her winning the last challenge. She probably takes Natalie. Eliza: Parvati Ozzy:Natalie Jason:Parvati James:Natalie Amanda:Parvati Erik:Natalie Cirie:Parvati Alexis: Parvati, based on what she will "do" with the money. It's not a foolproof speculation, but a solid one if I say so myself. Even if they wanted to get rid of Erik before Cirie (which I don't buy at all), he won immunity at the final 5. There was no way in hell Natalie tries to have him give it to her if the fans have the numbers. Cirie goes at 5. Erik will leave the first time he doesn't win immunity, and Parvati will go if he does. The finals consists of Natalie and Alexis barring an immunity win. Now, even if your theory works out, a jury vote between Parvati and Natalie is an easy win for the fan. Eliza has said countless times her thread that she was rooting for the fans (on the show, in Ponderosa clips, in her thread), Ozzy and James despised Parv, Alexis was her best friend from day one (that is ridiculous if you really don't think she would vote for Natalie). That's 4 votes right there, Parv has Amanda and Cirie for sure. Jason didn't know that Natalie was behind his boot (she didn't vote for him), and he thought they were friends. If Natalie doesn't take out Erik in such a way that happened on the show, he would definitely vote for his fellow fan. I'm not 100% on Erik and Jason, but at the very least, Natalie has a tie. It seems illogical that Natalie or Alexis would keep a challenge threat like Erik around over Cirie, when they easily could have booted her the next round. Why would Erik give up his immunity? I think that they could have pulled off the same stunt by threatening him with jury votes. If it worked in the RL scenario, it's not a stretch to say he would have done it in without the Amanda guilt. In the F4, they either do the tiebreaker thing, or assuming that they all believe a Final 3 is in play, convince Parv of Cirie's jury threat. Cirie leaves. In the F3, only Parv has shown actual challenge competancy. In lieu of actual evidence, her challenge feats are all we have to rely on for speculative purposes. I believe she would take Natalie over Alexis, but I am not committed to it. I agree that Natalie at least has a tie, but again, I believe this works in Parvati's favor. If it is firestarting, a revote, or a challenge, Parv has shown to be more consistent then the other two.
Thailandsurvivor		#22	[-]
Posts: 8571 (11/05/09 9:42 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	How could they easily take out Cirie at the final 4? They knew how the numbers worked. Just because they were ridiculously underedited doesn't mean they didn't know how to play (or count). And even if that does happen, it shouldn't be a tie. It's more likely to be 6-2 with Parvati getting killed.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#23	[-]
Posts: 9431 (11/05/09 9:55 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thailandsurvivor wrote: How could they easily take out Cirie at the final 4? They knew how the numbers worked. Just because they were ridiculously underedited doesn't mean they didn't know how to play (or count). And even if that does happen, it shouldn't be a tie. It's more likely to be 6-2 with Parvati getting killed. Because Natalie and Alexis are banking on a F3 as opposed to a F2, as silly as it sounds. Cirie had a stigma attached to her which would have netted her votes, and by your own argument, you admit that Parvati wouldn't get much percieved respect. It is possible that Parvati would think that the jury would split their votes between Nat and Alexis, while Parvati recieves votes from the following: Jason Amanda Cirie If Nat and Alexis expect a F2, then I concede that it is possible that Parvati would exit over Cirie in the final four. However, Parvati's social game has been shown to be excellent throughout both her seasons, arguably more so then Cirie's. Not mention her bond with the two fangirls. On the jury, whether or not Nat or Alexis is in the jury box, there is a good reason for either to vote for Parv based on game strategy. Neither women showed an emotional inclination on voting, and both know they will be friends post show. Jason has also said that he respected Parv for eliminating Ozzy. So it is at least a tie for Parv, boardering on a win.
Thailandsurvivor		#24	[-]
Posts: 8574 (11/05/09 10:14 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	They didn't think it was a final three, and Cirie would never have left before Parvati with Natalie and Alexis running the show. Parvati was edited as a mastermind strategist, but everyone else in the game perceived her as a goat. She won because of friendships in the game, and Amanda's jury speech was awful. Without the two auto votes from Alexis and Natalie (who would vote for each other, you trying to make an argument against that is absurd) that she had against Amanda, she had no shot at winning. Other than Amanda, anyone from the final 7 would have beaten Parvati in the finals because enough people disliked her.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#25	[-]
Posts: 9435 (11/05/09 10:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thailandsurvivor wrote: They didn't think it was a final three, and Cirie would never have left before Parvati with Natalie and Alexis running the show. Parvati was edited as a mastermind strategist, but everyone else in the game perceived her as a goat. She won because of friendships in the game, and Amanda's jury speech was awful. Without the two auto votes from Alexis and Natalie (who would vote for each other, you trying to make an argument against that is absurd) that she had against Amanda, she had no shot at winning. Other than Amanda, anyone from the final 7 would have beaten Parvati in the finals because enough people disliked her. They aren't running the show. If you can concede that Erik was too big a threat not to guilt into giving up his immunity, then we have a F4 that is equal between the fans and favorites. What I am trying to say is that Parvati had a number of options to work with. You're underestimating her social game and influence with Natalie and Alexis. It's also worth noting that Cirie for the most part remains loyal to her allies, and I don't believe it would be in her interests to pull a "Jenna Lewis" on Parvati. So let's say there is a firemaking competition between Parv and Natalie in the F4. Parv knows how to make a fire from Yau Man. Natalie has not been shown to know how to start a fire. So Natalie probably leaves. However, it is just as likely that she could trick the two into taking her over Cirie. All of that assumes, however, that Nat/Alexis don't recognize Cirie's social threat. If Parvati is really as big of a goat as you say she is, the two fans will most likely tag team against Cirie instead. If Cirie wins the tiebreaker: Parv, Cirie, Natalie F3. Natalie or Parv wins final challenge, and takes the other one If Natalie wins the tiebreaker: Parv, Alexis, Natalie F3. Natalie perhaps wins, and takes Alexis to the F2. Parvati perhaps wins, and takes Natalie. The votes remain as how I speculated them, and I think that Parv's social influence could convince Alexis to vote for her. Last Edited By: Dr Will Hatch two point oh 11/05/09 10:46 PM. Edited 1 times.
Thailandsurvivor		#26	[-]
Posts: 8580 (11/05/09 10:42 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I can understand Natalie and Alexis maybe convincing Parv to vote for Cirie, but it would leave the same situation I said earlier with those in the final 3. And I'm sorry Hatch, but come on. Alexis and Natalie were inseparable during the entire season.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#27	[-]
Posts: 9436 (11/05/09 10:54 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Still, I see Parvati winning a tiebreaker situation over either Natalie or Alexis. Her fan thread shows that she likes the outdoors, so there is reason to believe that she is more competant in firebuilding. That leaves Cirie in the F3 with Parv and Natalie. Would Natalie in a million years pick the vaunted Cirie Fields over potential goat Parvati? No. It seems that most of the time, friends vote for friends because they believe they were the superior player. Parvati has shown to be a better player overall then Natalie.
Thailandsurvivor		#28	[-]
Posts: 8581 (11/05/09 11:05 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	You said it yourself that Parvati might vote for Cirie, and even if she doesn't, Natalie and Alexis would vote for her over Parv. Once again, Parvati was shown to be the best player through editing to the viewers because she won. The other castmembers did not see it the same way. Yes, they gave her credit for voting out Ozzy, but the fans got more credit for being underdogs. Besides, Ozzy and James hated her, and the fans (and Eliza) wanted one of their own to win.
AllMenAreIslands		#29	[-]
Posts: 25918 (11/05/09 11:24 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	blistering wrote: I hate those things. I don't care who has it. They were interesting (though only a little) back when they were new and unexpected. Now that they are routine they should shelve them and stop eating up show time with them. At least EI is history. As long as incidents such as happened tonight - with Erik being blindsided by his own hubris and exiting the game WITH THE HII IN HIS POCKET!!! they will continue to utilize them. Even though you say they are routine, clearly players have yet to master the use of them. They are not a free pass to the final 4, which is what I think Erik was considering his to be. The biggest problem for the audience is that the impact of the HII is so subtle, but it is in people's thoughts and having it or knowing who has it has influenced the path of pretty much every season it's been a part of.
blistering		#30	[-]
Posts: 6677 (11/06/09 1:08 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	AllMenAreIslands wrote: As long as incidents such as happened tonight - with Erik being blindsided by his own hubris and exiting the game WITH THE HII IN HIS POCKET!!! they will continue to utilize them. Even though you say they are routine, clearly players have yet to master the use of them. They are not a free pass to the final 4, which is what I think Erik was considering his to be. The biggest problem for the audience is that the impact of the HII is so subtle, but it is in people's thoughts and having it or knowing who has it has influenced the path of pretty much every season it's been a part of. I can't argue that the players generally have no idea how to best exploit them, as evidenced by the number of people sent home with it in their pocket. But it doesn't change that they SHOULD know by now and if they don't they are playing a game they haven't bothered to understand. But that's an entirely different discussion relating to casting. I'd just rather see something new than a "twist" so expected that one guy finds it even without any clues. That goes for "swim out and get your puzzle pieces" as well. Enough puzzle pieces already.
Seyz		#31	[-]
Posts: 528 (11/06/09 1:10 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well the Idol brought us some good moments I think. Jamie playing a fake idol (even though she knew it was fake), Alexis blindside, Eliza's stick moment , James getting voted out with two hidden immunity idols in possession. Those were good times. But yeah, last 2 seasons, less interesting.
blistering		#32	[-]
Posts: 6678 (11/06/09 1:39 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I just liked Survivor better when it didn't need some form of twist present in every episode to approach being interesting.
Spanky Hot Dog		#33	[-]
Posts: 4897 (11/12/09 7:26 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	nvm
A Bartholomew		#34	[-]
Posts: 5920 (11/12/09 7:27 PM) Patriots:Worst 11-5 team EVER Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	As many idols as Russell needs, they'll give him.

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