S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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BlakeB717		#2641	[-]
Posts: 2135 (11/07/09 9:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Natalie didn't have anything, did she? Even Danni had something in her first episode, and I don't think that Natalie even got a TCQ, if I'm not mistaken. Nope, no TCQ. Actually, 40% of edgic gave Natalie INV in Episode One. She barely escaped a close call. Even more interesting, 75% of edgic gave Natalie INV in Episode Two. That is pretty overwhelming. Remember guys, these are the first two episodes of the season and she went to TC both times! 1.95 - Dave Ball 1.84 - Monica Padilla 1.79 - Brett Clouser 1.63 - Natalie White --- 1.32 - Yasmin Giles 1.05 - Laura Morett 1.00 - Kelly Sharbaugh Those are all the people who got INV votes in the first episode. Of the ones that ended up with UTR, Natalie was the closest to INV! (2=UTR, 1=INV) Last Edited By: BlakeB717 11/07/09 9:43 PM. Edited 1 times.
BlakeB717		#2642	[-]
Posts: 2136 (11/07/09 9:40 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	For the sake of bringing some laughter into this thread (getting too mathy and thinky)... Can't make something that crazy up! (Galwho's VF) Note: Natalie's visibility in comparison to the rest of Foa Foa.. looks like INV to me! Last Edited By: BlakeB717 11/07/09 10:13 PM. Edited 2 times.
chapera rocks		#2643	[-]
Posts: 11906 (11/07/09 9:47 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: chapera rocks wrote: Hm, I don't recall dismissing the merge episode? It's very important. Not as imporant as E1, but it serves a purpose and has importance. First off, let me say that I agree risotho is a weird troll. But this statement makes no sense because there's no proof of it. All we have to go on is the pattern of the show ... and based on the show's pattern of winner edits, the merge and Episode 1 have shown EQUAL importance, statistically. One exception for both (and if you want to get really technical, the episode 1 exception happened more recently than the merge exception). I suppose that is where we disagree (where I bolded). I'm more on gff's camp where the merge episode has similar importance to any other episode. However, I think there are parts of the merger where winners really should get something (which is why the merge episode has some definite importance over other episodes) and Mick got it where I hoped he would (the feast/initial coming together). E1 is just way more important: it's the start of everything, in my mind. Right, but what you think is subjective; looking from an OBJECTIVE perspective and straight up stats (which you seem pretty big on in general), the big merge episode has held up just as much as the Episode 1 edit. It cannot be ignored. Again, I totally agree that Mick can't be eliminated; but that's because there's no great edits, and we area scraping for candidates. Plenty of people have gotten that merge confessional, and guess what? A lot of them have not won the game. And I totally agree that Natalie is eliminated. If she wins, it's an enormous edgic anomaly. One that Amber, Danni, etc. didn't even have. But my point is that the merge edit is just as important as the ep 1. edit, statistically, so your argument does not hold a lot of weight.
Kitty Pryde1		#2644	[-]
Posts: 10873 (11/07/09 10:08 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Honestly, I think that this is Russell's season to lose, and when he does, it's going to be someone he wrote off that wins the game instead. And at this point, there are really two players in the game that could be sitting there at the finale, a million dollars richer, while a montage of Russell trashing them (and having been proven wrong) plays. Jaison and Natalie. Mick has great numbers, edgically, but he has no story whatsoever. He's just there. Jaison and Natalie are the ones Russell trashed. Jaison with all his quitter comments (when really, Jaison has only talked about how brutal the conditions have been, and they HAVE been brutal) and Natalie with his "dumbass girl alliance" comments. Both have a connection to a theme in the first episode: Jaison being the theme of race, and Natalie being the theme of women's intuition. At this point, I feel that Jaison or Natalie is likely our winner, with Mick being a "everyone else in the final sucks, so let's vote him by default" winner, and Russell being a "I can't believe we got this great character and he WON! Let's give him every second of screentime!" winner. Galu...I'm just not seeing it. At all. Maybe Monica. But probably not.
Griffin		#2645	[-]
Posts: 11 (11/07/09 10:09 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Blake - I don't care about how many people said Natalie was INV in the first two episodes. I didn't, and that's what matters when I make my predictions. Episode 1 especially doesn't matter because it was only 40% and I'm pretty sure (could be wrong, maybe it was someone else, but I'm pretty sure) that you yourself have said multiple times that in the case of there being a split between INV and UTR1, UTR1 wins out because INV has to be definite. Now here's the thing - there is clearly a difference in prediction styles here. I don't put much faith in big, entirely rating-determined ideas like "the winner must always have x amount of CPs before Episode X and must never have X number of UTRs before then" and blahblahblah because they're broken so often. Before Bob, no one had ever had an OTT in the first episode. Before Jenna, no one had gone the whole season with so few CPs. Before Danni, no one had had such a horrible first 3 episodes. I prefer to look at details and other things that aren't necessarily related to ratings, because the patterns aren't broken as often. The winner doesn't randomly vote for someone who isn't the vote-out and then not explain it. The theme of a season (in this case, "leadership = bad") doesn't get set to something that is clearly opposed to the winner. And biggest of all, the editors don't leave people hanging with plot points. There has to be a conclusion to Russell and Natalie both thinking that they can beat the other, and there has to be a conclusion to Shambo saying that Erik and John have to vote for her. The only way I can see that bit working out in Mick's favour is if the Shambo line was accidentally left in and the Russell/Natalie thing turns out to be irony, with neither of them winning, but I can't see the Shambo line fizzing out like that. I guess it just comes down to the fact that you set much more store in ratings than I do. For me, ratings are just a means of providing a quick snapshot at how someone has been edited. (the fact that Mick STILL has no story after 8 episodes doesn't help, either)
BlakeB717		#2646	[-]
Posts: 2139 (11/07/09 10:10 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kitty Pryde1 wrote: Ratings After A Second Watch: Foa Foa Tribe: Ashley - Ashley's edit was a weird one for me, and I had a hard time classifying her. She could be CP or MOR. She could be P or neutral. I went with CP because we got into her head about her thoughts, and P because she was shown to be on Betsy's side over Ben's while everyone else was just letting him skate by. Ben - You see? THIS is an OTTNN edit. No complexity. Just an episode of Ben being racist, obnoxious, and violent. I'm still majorly pissed off about the pigeonholing that several prominent edigckers gave Russell last episode. Also, I gave Ben a 5 because he was shown so much more than his vis rating implies. Elizabeth - CP easily. No tone. Everything was strategy with her. Jaison - Same deal as Elizabeth. Really, those two have been having the same exact edit, IMHO. Mick - Same as Jaison and Elizabeth. We got into his head about his decisions. Mike - OTT is obvious because his whole story was about being old and getting medevaced. P was because he was trying so hard to prove himself and he fell in the line of duty, plus even Yasmin, who wasn't on his tribe, felt sad about him getting the boot. Natalie - INV1 because again, she's gone to tribal council, but hasn't said a word. She's purely reaction shots. Russell H. - CPN5 because he had the same amount of visibility and complexity, but slightly less negativity this time around. Galu Tribe: Brett - Effeminate who? Dave - Wankster who? Erik - Bald who? John - Hot who? Kelly - Hippy who? Laura - UTR1, solely for getting a confessional in the black hole of Galu invisibility. Monica - Same as Laura. Russell S. - Don Cheadle who? Shannon - No complexity and definitely negative for swimming while she should've been fishing. Yasmin - Every moment she had on-screen was either her complaining or her being a bitch. OTTN for sure. Winners: Elizabeth - She tops my list because I've just got a feeling that a woman's gonna win, due to Betsy's women's intuition talk in these first two episodes. Betsy got too good an edit for a second boot if what she said didn't have meaning. Plus, Elizabeth really could easily be editted as invisible. She doesn't seem all that interesting. Yet she's gotten confessionals and screentime in both episodes. Ashley - She's up top because she's a woman too, and because she's gotten a decent edit with screentime in both episodes. Her first episode is weird to me though, which keeps her from the top spot, and the N to P transition seems awkward. Mick - He had a good episode one, but it's strange that we saw no insight from him about voting Ashley in the minority. He's just this high because there's no one really that much better of an option right now. Jaison - Another decent edit. He's basically the same as Elizabeth, in my eyes, but he's lower on my list because I would expect a better edit than Liz's, for a guy who could easily get a more heroic edit. Shannon - She's gotten screentime in both episodes, which is enough to keep her in contention, sadly. But her stock dropped with the bad negativity she got this episode. Russell H. - If I guy won the season by playing the way he did and by being the character his is, it's hard to tell if they would edit him differently. He'll still probably lose, but I can't take him off my list yet. Monica - She's only on the list because she's gotten two throwaway confessionals to keep her from being INV thus far. Granted, so did Sydney, but this season is weird, and she's one of only seven people out of 17 to not get an INV in one or both of the first two episodes, so whatever. (I know that Ben has been above INV twice now, but his OTTNN edit kills his chances). Strategy Ratings: Kitty whatever happened to the strategy ratings?
BlakeB717		#2647	[-]
Posts: 2140 (11/07/09 10:12 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	astroline wrote: Alright, now that I posted my ratings and explanations, here's ASTROCHART! (I know I should change it to 14 episodes instead of 13, I just realized that. And I don't use Blake's template, for whoever said that before. I've been making my own charts since Cooks.) astro, I forgot to ask. Can you post chart for Cook Islands? I wasn't here then! Someone PM'd me about sending them my personal CI chart for comparison, but I don't have one...
MasterDarkNinja		#2648	[-]
Posts: 2867 (11/07/09 10:13 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	unduli clone wrote: Natalie didn't have anything, did she? Even Danni had something in her first episode, and I don't think that Natalie even got a TCQ, if I'm not mistaken. Natalie had her scene with Russel, where he called her 'the even dumber blonde girl', unlike the other two 'dumb girls', we never got ANY perspective from Natalie that episode, no confessionals or TCQ.That right there is why she's not winning for me. For comparison, Ashley got a confessional about Russel's hurricane Katrina story (where she believed it and found it sad, which is just what Russel wanted her to think), and Marissa of course said she was having a hard time trusting Russel, which got her axed. Edit: Blake if you want an S13 chart I can send you mine. Last Edited By: MasterDarkNinja 11/07/09 10:21 PM. Edited 1 times.
getting real		#2649	[-]
Posts: 1852 (11/07/09 10:15 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Mere numbers mean nothing by themselves. That's why we can't pigeon-hole winners' edits as if by rote. Whatever the numbers relating Natalie's first episode she had a crucial scene with Betsy with the emphasis being on women's intuition and not trusting Russell. This immediately following Rusell's imperious dismissal of 'his' dumb blondes. Of course, in isolation, this means nothing. However, when subsequent events reinforce this theme of women, in general, and Natalie, in particular,overcoming men, in general, and Russell, in particular, then the early camouflaging can be understood, if not excused. Blake & OTH, let me ask you a question about Mick. You're obviously not yet troubled by the lack of Mick's jury connections. Fine. However, in that case, how many of Mick's scenes can you come up with that they could play before the reunion to emphasize Mick's victory and make the audience sit up in recognition and say 'ah, yes, that was Mick!' I ask this because I can think of at least four scenes so far involving Natalie that could be regarded as seeason-defining. All of them could be played and the audience would nod their head in recognition: 'Ah, yes, that's why Natalie won.' To me, that is editing logic.
BlakeB717		#2650	[-]
Posts: 2141 (11/07/09 10:21 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Griffin wrote: Blake - I don't care about how many people said Natalie was INV in the first two episodes. I didn't, and that's what matters when I make my predictions. Episode 1 especially doesn't matter because it was only 40% and I'm pretty sure (could be wrong, maybe it was someone else, but I'm pretty sure) that you yourself have said multiple times that in the case of there being a split between INV and UTR1, UTR1 wins out because INV has to be definite. Now here's the thing - there is clearly a difference in prediction styles here. I don't put much faith in big, entirely rating-determined ideas like "the winner must always have x amount of CPs before Episode X and must never have X number of UTRs before then" and blahblahblah because they're broken so often. Before Bob, no one had ever had an OTT in the first episode. Before Jenna, no one had gone the whole season with so few CPs. Before Danni, no one had had such a horrible first 3 episodes. I prefer to look at details and other things that aren't necessarily related to ratings, because the patterns aren't broken as often. The winner doesn't randomly vote for someone who isn't the vote-out and then not explain it. The theme of a season (in this case, "leadership = bad") doesn't get set to something that is clearly opposed to the winner. And biggest of all, the editors don't leave people hanging with plot points. There has to be a conclusion to Russell and Natalie both thinking that they can beat the other, and there has to be a conclusion to Shambo saying that Erik and John have to vote for her. The only way I can see that bit working out in Mick's favour is if the Shambo line was accidentally left in and the Russell/Natalie thing turns out to be irony, with neither of them winning, but I can't see the Shambo line fizzing out like that. I guess it just comes down to the fact that you set much more store in ratings than I do. For me, ratings are just a means of providing a quick snapshot at how someone has been edited. (the fact that Mick STILL has no story after 8 episodes doesn't help, either) Then you're in the wrong thread. panurge has a well-run thread in this forum that follows exactly what you just said you follow. --- Regarding Mick not having a story: I'm not sure I buy that. Mick's story, to me, has been closely tied to Foa Foa. His confessionals have always been about how sucky it is to lose and hoping for a better day. Lots of "We were so close, this doesn't bode well for us". Not much of a story, but he hasn't been a narrative MOR (which is a bad MOR). Foa Foa has a story, and him being tied to the workings of this underdog tribe is perfectly fine. He's also been strategic in how he's allocated his leadership target. We know he's a doctor and how that'll work for him. That was our big problem with Marcus: we didn't know anything about him. Bob said he was a fisherman and teacher, JT said he's a country boy, and Mick told us he's a doctor and it took hard work and perseverance to get through. I think Mick's, er, "robotic" projection can be misleading--the content isn't half bad.
Griffin		#2651	[-]
Posts: 12 (11/07/09 10:29 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	This thread is about using past editing patterns to predict the winner. I'm using past editing patterns to predict the winner. Whether or not I use ratings and only ratings to do so does not help determine whether or not what I do is "Edgic". Ratings are a means of simplifying a person's edit so that you don't have to go around memorizing exactly what so-and-so did and said in Episode 84. You put a greater importance on them than I do. That doesn't mean either of us is wrong; it's just the main reason why we have different picks in my opinion. Both of us are using past editing patterns to predict the winner; therefore both of us are using Edgic to try to predict the winner. We just use different patterns.
SurvivorGuy24		#2652	[-]
Posts: 1074 (11/07/09 10:30 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: And I totally agree that Natalie is eliminated. If she wins, it's an enormous edgic anomaly. One that Amber, Danni, etc. didn't even have. This.
BlakeB717		#2653	[-]
Posts: 2142 (11/07/09 10:47 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Griffin wrote: This thread is about using past editing patterns to predict the winner. I'm using past editing patterns to predict the winner. Whether or not I use ratings and only ratings to do so does not help determine whether or not what I do is "Edgic". Ratings are a means of simplifying a person's edit so that you don't have to go around memorizing exactly what so-and-so did and said in Episode 84. You put a greater importance on them than I do. That doesn't mean either of us is wrong; it's just the main reason why we have different picks in my opinion. Both of us are using past editing patterns to predict the winner; therefore both of us are using Edgic to try to predict the winner. We just use different patterns. cries inside You are picking Natalie. You are picking Natalie. You are picking Natalie. You are picking Natalie. You are picking Natalie.
Griffin		#2654	[-]
Posts: 13 (11/07/09 10:53 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If I were forced to pick someone, I'd pick Natalie. That's very different from saying that I'm picking Natalie. And I'm sorry, but I've been lurking here long enough to know that when you get emotional, you say things that are less than rational. Since you seem to be getting angrier and angrier, I hope you'll excuse me if I disregard quite a lot of what you're about to say.
BlakeB717		#2655	[-]
Posts: 2143 (11/07/09 10:56 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Griffin wrote: If I were forced to pick someone, I'd pick Natalie. That's very different from saying that I'm picking Natalie. And I'm sorry, but I've been lurking here long enough to know that when you get emotional, you say things that are less than rational. Since you seem to be getting angrier and angrier, I hope you'll excuse me if I disregard quite a lot of what you're about to say. Lol Hmm... since I'm getting angry (and irrational).. I guess I'll say that Natalie wins! How's that for irrational? ;) -- If you are picking based on past editting patterns, Natalie is not the best choice out of everyone.
JT4ever		#2656	[-]
Posts: 390 (11/07/09 10:57 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	So part of me is beginning to wonder if the reason Natalie gets so few confessionals might be that her mom brought her up not to say bad things about people behind their backs. Which would be problematic for Survivor confessionals. Compare and contrast with Russell's position on talking trash in confessionals. Not Edgic, I realize, but something to think about.
getting real		#2657	[-]
Posts: 1853 (11/07/09 11:03 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Then you're in the wrong thread. panurge has a well-run thread in this forum that follows exactly what you just said you follow. We've been through this before, a couple of seasons ago. As long as this thread is called editing logic and not, say, editing statistics, and as long as people such as Colleenlover are welcome to participate, people will contribute as they see fit. Healthy (and, hopefully, non-hostile) debate is something to be cherished not eschewed.
SurvivorGuy24		#2658	[-]
Posts: 1075 (11/07/09 11:07 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Neither did Danni (she deliberately did her strategizing off camera). But she still got at least one confessional in the first three episodes. Which Natalie didn't. Edgically, she is 100% eliminated. This "Natalie has to beat Russell" argument is all well and good, but it belongs in the MESS Story Arc thread or panurge's Story and Characters thread. Edgically there is no argument for Natalie. She is so far off the board that she makes Danni look like Earl or Yul. Last Edited By: SurvivorGuy24 11/07/09 11:10 PM. Edited 1 times.
OnlyTheHunter		#2659	[-]
Posts: 2055 (11/07/09 11:16 PM) Edgician Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	gr asked me OTH, let me ask you a question about Mick. You're obviously not yet troubled by the lack of Mick's jury connections. Fine. However, in that case, how many of Mick's scenes can you come up with that they could play before the reunion to emphasize Mick's victory and make the audience sit up in recognition and say 'ah, yes, that was Mick!' I ask this because I can think of at least four scenes so far involving Natalie that could be regarded as seeason-defining. All of them could be played and the audience would nod their head in recognition: 'Ah, yes, that's why Natalie won.' You wanted an honest response so here goes. First, it would be interesting to check out each finale's opening. I have all but Africa saved. (I might not have Panama EI but that one I could get from iTunes if needed.) I'm going to make this following post and then consider this. The quotes are straight from Samoa and verbatim (assuming I can hear) unless I use ... to separate breaks. Probst voice over - "38 days ago, 20 Americans began the adventure of a lifetime. They were divided into two tribes and told they immediately had to pick a leader on the spot. The Galu tribe chose Russell, while Foa Foa picked Mick. His choices led Foa Foa to an immediate victory." Marisa - "We won the challenge because Mick made a very good choice on all legs." Probst - "Russell emerged with a plan to dominate the game, using the girls on his tribe." Russell - "I came here to play. My strategy is to have an alliance...with these dumb girls...I like to call it my dumb ass girl alliance." Probst - "But Galu soon took over the game, and Foa Foa began losing members. Galu's biggest concern was Shambo, who had trouble connecting with her tribe." Shambo - "The way that the rest of the tribe does things is going to be different than the way that I do things." Probst - "Heavy rain pummled both tribes and made them question their resolve." Jaison - "This is absolute misery" Mick - "I'm doing the best I can...to try and get through this." Russell - "Time to do something about it today." INSERT Galu quotes Probst - "Galu won challenge after challenge, as Foa Foa dwindled. But just when Galu looked unstoppable, their leader fell." Dave - "I should have guessed he passed out." Russell Swan - "I'm good, let's go." Probst - "With his heart rate fluctuating, Russell had to leave the game. Despite that setback, Galu had the advantage, and thought they had the game to themselves. They began looking at each other, and cracks began to form. The men wanted to break up Laura and Monica, and the girls wanted to target Shambo. INSERT some Laura/Monica - Erik/John - Shambo quotes Probst - "As the merge approached, Galu tried to put on a brave front with an 8-5 advantage." Russell - "I reallly believe that the table's about to turn." Erik - "Line it up and let's do a challenge right now." Mick - "We welcome it." Then after going down 8-4, the two tribes merged." -- Then we get mentions of Natalie infiltrating Galu, and how the Foa members resolved to stay tight to the end. Mick's important moments don't come before the merge, any more than Bob's did. But he has ones to show. Michael Last Edited By: OnlyTheHunter 11/07/09 11:18 PM. Edited 1 times.
BlakeB717		#2660	[-]
Posts: 2144 (11/07/09 11:36 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	X Michael. The story of Mick has been tied to the success/future of Foa Foa and himself--perserverance just like his opening confessional about getting through MedSchool not being a cakewalk: E2- "Losing Mike and having to go through another TC tonight, it doesn't bode well for us" E4- "We always get so close and then have it taken away, man, something's gotta give" E6- "I've just got to.. get through this" E7- "Walking away, losing again, we have a hex or pox on Foa Foa, I don't know, I'm starting to get superstitious" E8- "When we merged, I knew today was gonna be a good day" -- New life, he weathered the storm (pre-merge) and now things will get better--going to be a good day..a good end ;) Seems to be a continuing story with Mick..definitely lots at the reunion. The pre-merge "Foa Foa will never do it" doubt seems pretty good. Aitu got it, Jalapao got it.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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