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I think John was smart to want to break up Laura and Monica. Galu isn't a tribe; it's 3 women in a tight alliance, 4 men is an alliance (how tight it is and who is allied with whom isn't clear), plus Shambo. So taking out Laura or Monica isn't a bad idea, though I agree that it would probably be smarter to take our 2 or 3 Foa Foans first.

My impression of John and Erik is that John perceived himself as the strategist calling the shots and using Erik to execute the strategy, thus making Erik look like the bad guy to everyone who gets booted. So Erik getting the blame for organizing the Monica boot was smart on John's part -- Erik was his shield -- it just wasn't supposed to happen so soon.

I'm not sure whether Dave is any master strategist or just playing mechanically. He's a challenge threat, so his plan may be just to make it as far as possible and then go on a challenge run. John has to know that long-term, he's probably no competition for Erik, Dave and Brett in late game challenges, so he can't wait too long to take out some of the other men. If he goes along with a Pagonging, he's playing for 4th place. So I can't blame him for wanting to come up with some other alliances, like the one with Russell.

It's easy to sit back and say the "smart" thing to do is Pagong the FoaFoans, but the problem for us is that we know so little about Galu's tribe dynamics.

John (and the other men) have to know that Laura has Monica and Kelly wrapped around her fingers and that voting bloc has to be a huge concern. Remember when Russell S chose the blankets over the tarp? His rationale was that he had to keep the women happy. So even back then, there was fear (or at least a need to appease) Laura/Monica/Kelly.

So if I were John at the merge, my biggest fear would be an alliance between the 4 FoaFoans and the 3 Galu grrrls, who could then pick off the Galu men. So an alliance with Russell, the presumed leader of Foa Foa, would make sense for John. And the first step in that alliance would be to take out Laura (with Monica as the fallback when Laura won immunity). I think that a "keep Galu together" strategy works in the short-term for John, but not the long-term. He's playing for 4th place if he just sticks to a Galu men alliance (and Brett seems to be pretty friendly with the girls, so how big and tight was that alliance anyways?) That's probably what he meant by "junior varsity Survivor".

And whoever (Stephen?) made the comment about tribes that haven't been to TC wanting to strategize makes a lot of sense. Generally, the early boots in any tribe are not particularly strategic -- they vote out the people they don't like. Laura comes across as such a bitch during the few seconds we see her on TV, can you imagine what it's like to be around her 24/7? I'd just want her away from me!!!!

So I guess my answer to SJ's original question is that I think John certainly thinks of himself as a strategic player. But since his tribe has only had one TC, there hasn't been much strategy to execute. So when the merge came, it's logical for him to try and form some kind of connection with the FoaFoans. He already knows he can't trust/work with the Galu Girls. I think he was trying to position himself as a swing player, bringing together FoaFoa, Shambo and the Galu men. And the first thing you want to do if you're trying to control votes is to eliminate your competition, hence Laura becomes his first target.