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JT4ever wrote:

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Archibald C wrote:

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JT4ever wrote:

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Please tell us exactly what you think would have happened to Foa Foa at the merge if Russell had done nothing more than to go around schmoozing Galu and kissing their butts, just like the other 3 Foa Foans.

Instead of aligning with Shambo (who was the easiest Galu to flip, but only gives him one extra vote) he should have used Foa Foa's connection with Laura to get the Galu girl on their side to instead oust Shambo, causing major tension between the Galus. Then he wouldn't of had to worry about even having an HII. We've seen how quick Galu was to turn on each other, Russell could have had them fighting each other

Hmmm, I notice that your scenario still has Russell doing Foa Foa's bidding. Telling, no?

Anyway, did you actually watch the episode? When Russell went to Laura right after the merge to make the F7 deal, he specifically asked her to vote off someone on Galu first. And Laura flat said, "No. Someone from Foa Foa has to go first." Even Shambo who was itching to get rid of Laura would only consent to getting rid of Laura on Galu. Otherwise, Shambo, the only ally Foa Foa had as a group, told them to their face that one of them would have to go.

People are conveniently ignoring the fact that Foa Foa came in down 4 to 8. They had absolutely zero leverage and a very awkward number to work with. As a group of 4, there was no alliance they could attract that made numerical sense. A group of 5 - 8 Galu wouldn't feel that they need the Foa Foa 4 in order to get rid of their Galu targets once Foa Foa was gone. A group of 1 to 3 Galu would be in the minority of any alliance with the Foa Foa 4. And a group of 4 Galu would result in a tie. Whichever way you looked at it, it was in the interest of every subgroup on Galu to get rid of at least one member of Foa Foa while it was still easy before even beginning to think of using the remaining Foa Foans as votes against an enemy faction on Galu.

All Foa Foa could do was to try to find individual Galu members who would target one specific individual on Galu they were itching to get rid of. Which is exactly what we saw Russell (and only Russell) try to do. And he was in fact successful. Thanks to Russell's probing, he was able to get both Shambo and John to target Laura. Still, both made individual decisions. Shambo hated Laura, and John feared her. Even then, John was acting independently of his alliance of men, because John's decision to vote Laura was more about (probably foolishly, but who knows?) trusting that he, Russell and Russell's idol could go far together.

Laura won immunity. There was nothing Russell could do about that, and suddenly he was at a loss. He had played his hand, and luck (a big part of Survivor) seemed against him. But what he didn't know was that one of the seeds, yes the Russell seeds, that he had been busy planting, was about to sprout. The knowledge of Russell's idol set off a chain of events from Laura to Erik to John to Erik, which led the latter to go over to Foa Foa to browbeat them and give them the perfect ammunition with which to turn Laura and the girls. Again, credit to Jaison for getting huffy and Natalie for being a Heather whisperer. But again, none of this would have happened without Russell's aggressive play in the first place.

It's one thing to be subtle when the game is posed on an equilibrium and there are power struggles going on. It's another thing to come into a merge down 4 to 8, and then hope that you'll all be spared just by being passively nice to the people in charge, even if they don't need you as a group for anything.

No matter how it played out, someone on Foa Foa would have survived the merge. After all, you can't rid of all of them at once. But all 4 of Foa Foa surviving the merge? I don't see how they could have done it without Russell's aggression. And now to be in a position where the Foa Foa 4 might be able to get the upper hand on Laura and Galu. Again, I don't see how they could have done it without Russell's aggression.