So, Laura is killed Thursday on the spoil of a 5-5 tie with a 6-4 2nd vote before the bag ...
The $64K question is who among the Galu would most likely flip facing the bag of rocks.
Assumptions
The two stage IC is a male biased challenge where we (yawn) throw things at plates and then shoot crossbows. Therefore specualtion that IC immunity is held by a male, I think either a Foa or Brett.
Explaining Russell
Assuming Russell's hammock vidcap contentment is legit, then why? The easiest resolution of this scene and the presumed tie at TC, is that he has called in Shambo and maybe has won IC. Don't know if he needs to threaten her or not, but he know he has a 5-5 tie and if he's IC immune facing a 4 in 7 (57%) shot of the rock going Galu plus the odds that one of the Galus will flake (which is more likely than any of his Faos breaking). If he makes say Brett and Monica a 10% chance of flipping and David or John a 5% chance, he's then looking at 30% + (57% * 70%) = 70% of walking out of the TC with the majority. Worse case, he's immune TC10 and lives to E11 with Shambo fodder beside him for her betrayal, and a 67% chance that the dead Fao is IC threats (and plausible jury vote) Mick or Jaison. If Russell started the E10 3 day cycle assuming he's at the greatest risk in the game then flipping Shambo and pondering a tied TC (or sitting there with the IC immunity) makes him a happy guy.
There is one scenario even better, Russell has Shambo flipped, he has IC immunity and Jaison/Mick/Nat have HII. Obviously with Russ IC immune, Jaison and Mick would have to assume that they're a likely target motivating them to play HII. So Russ sees a hung jury at 5-5 with him immune, the HII played by another Foa which has either negated their votes or leaving just Shambo and one Foa pulling rocks against 5 Galu meaning the Fao alliance has a 70% chance of winning the rock bag.
Rule Problem
The situation of an HII played at a tied TC is unclear. The Rules as we know them from S16 (Kathy) is unclear in that this situation is not addressed directly. The simple reading of the rules (CBS had to pay Les and Tom for an error in S3 under threat of suit) is that a lawyer would contend that the rules read that an IC immunity keeps you out of the bag but a HII (not won at a Challenge) does not. The rules would not qualify the term immunity if exemption from the bag were applicable to all immunities. Regardless of this situation what matters is what the players might think and we don't know how this situation (the HII played at the tied TC) will be understood by the players and impact decisions and events.
Problem with a Foa Holding HII
But there are two things hard to explain with a Foa holding HII. 1) Shambo's betrayal must be known to Galu so she is unaware of the targeting. Given her acting job at the previous TC where she remained covert and cast a knowingly annulled vote at Russ "10-9-8" we have no reason to believe this or 2) Shambo doesn't tell Fao who Galu is targeting, which makes no sense or 3) Galu is on to Shambo, is uncertain which Foa has HII, so decides to vote Shambo. Shambo tells Foa this and either the HII is not found at all or its not given to Shambo for any number of reasons.
As much as Galu may want to target Russ unless they are holding HII and this is known collectively, they would be foolish to target Russ.
Explaining Foa Targeting the Obvious Laura
If Galu is on to Shambo, then they would likely give the HII to Laura. If Foa thinks Galu has the HII, then would they target Laura again given that she's the obvious target? Only if they believe that Galu has no reason to suspect Shambo. But even if that's the case, why target Laura? If Laura was following Russ around, then they'd know she doesn't have the HII. Even if Shambo has been outed, Foa could run cover that they are not targeting Laura again (because its too obvious) and they're going after any of the others. Galu would think this makes sense. It is also hard for a person to give up HII to another if they're not sure who the target and a tie vote is looming (and being immune from the bag is a happy thing). The Targeting of Laura favors a Foa holding immunity, but does not require it.
A Galu with HII
A Galu finds the HII E10 and flips - Either confident that Laura is the target (most likely) or holding the IC immunity, and unaware of Shambo's betrayal, HII is not played. With the TC tied and a Foa holding IC immunity, you are looking at a 57% chance (assumining that the HII even if played does make you immune from the rocks) of going home. If you betray the other 3 Galus you can expect to be Foa's or a faction of Foa's target after the other 3 Galus have been Pagonged. But maybe one or two Foa would want you beside them in the F3. You assume that Shambo will have Foa's loyaty more than you (since its now outed that she's in with them first) and she's less of an IC threat.
If the Galu with HII does't flip now and some other Galu does - he/she would face being one of the next 3 targets. But even if things works out E11 and you are targeted, all you do is kill off a Foa, you can't stop the Pagonging - for example, E10 is 6-4, E11 is 6-3 with a Foa dead due to you playing the HII and being targeted, E12 is 5-3 and you're dead as retribution for the HII played E11 unless you can go on an IC run. If you don't play the HII E11, then E12 its 6-2 and Fao can divide 3-3 and thwart your HII (all you do is flip a stop with the other remaining Galu). You would have to presume that Foa would collectively know that none of the them found the HII and that it is either unfound or in the hands of a Fao. Since Laura, Monica and Dave it appears, were busy following Russell around, Fao would assume the HII is in the hands of either Brett or John (if these two didn't spend their time chasing Russell). So Foa would target the Galu, E11, who they saw most of the time not finding the HII. You've got to assume that Foa in the majority is a solid block that isn't going to divide until maybe 5, - 6 at best - and by then you're dead.
If the Galu with HII doesn't flip and some other Galu doesn't flip then he/she has got something like a 1 in 7 shot at the rock and depending on which alliance has the IC holder either a 3 in 7 or 4 in 7 chance of being in the minority. Assume Foa has IC immunity, then its a 57% chance you're going into the minority or dead with the HII in your pocket and will be at E11 TC facing a 5-4 Pagonging and having to get targeted and play the HII to get the game back to 4-4 for E12. With Laura still alive Foa would assume she has no HII so they might well target her again so you could give her the HII. But you've got a bunch of flakes facing a solid Fao so they might turn on you (assuming you let them know you have the HII and they want it back in play). You would have to presume that some idiotic Galu will, facing the Foa+Shambo majority, seek to appease and find favor by outing your possession of the HII. Foa would not want to reveal their target E11 due to the unknown HII.
Brett Living Longer than Jaison and Shambo
This makes some sense if he's the flipper. It makes more sense if either at TC10 or soon thereafter Brett gets the HII.
Assume the boot order on TDT is correct then using backward reasoning several explanations make sense:
Scenario 1 - Brett has HII (doesn't reveal to Galu) and flips, Laura goes E10, the other 3 Galus are Pagonged, he finds cracks in Foa or tries for some kind of appeal to the Galu jury by killing Shambo with his HII deployment with 6 at TC, he wins the next IC (Jaison goes), and then the Foa kill him at 4. Or Brett wins IC at 6, the Foa originals hold and kill Shambo. At 5 Russ wins IC (or maybe you want him in the F3) so you play your HII at Jaison (a bad F3 rival and an IC threat).
Scenario 2 - Jaison has HII, Bret flipped. He holds it until the Pagonging of the 3 remaining Galus is complete. At 6 Foa then starts the end game and fractures with Russell taking in the two Judases who he wants to face the Jury plus maybe Natalie who he probably intends to betray at 4. They target Jaison. Jaison catches wind of it and with Russell holding IC immunity he takes out Shambo with the HII.
Cheers
7o62x39
The $64K question is who among the Galu would most likely flip facing the bag of rocks.
Assumptions
The two stage IC is a male biased challenge where we (yawn) throw things at plates and then shoot crossbows. Therefore specualtion that IC immunity is held by a male, I think either a Foa or Brett.
Explaining Russell
Assuming Russell's hammock vidcap contentment is legit, then why? The easiest resolution of this scene and the presumed tie at TC, is that he has called in Shambo and maybe has won IC. Don't know if he needs to threaten her or not, but he know he has a 5-5 tie and if he's IC immune facing a 4 in 7 (57%) shot of the rock going Galu plus the odds that one of the Galus will flake (which is more likely than any of his Faos breaking). If he makes say Brett and Monica a 10% chance of flipping and David or John a 5% chance, he's then looking at 30% + (57% * 70%) = 70% of walking out of the TC with the majority. Worse case, he's immune TC10 and lives to E11 with Shambo fodder beside him for her betrayal, and a 67% chance that the dead Fao is IC threats (and plausible jury vote) Mick or Jaison. If Russell started the E10 3 day cycle assuming he's at the greatest risk in the game then flipping Shambo and pondering a tied TC (or sitting there with the IC immunity) makes him a happy guy.
There is one scenario even better, Russell has Shambo flipped, he has IC immunity and Jaison/Mick/Nat have HII. Obviously with Russ IC immune, Jaison and Mick would have to assume that they're a likely target motivating them to play HII. So Russ sees a hung jury at 5-5 with him immune, the HII played by another Foa which has either negated their votes or leaving just Shambo and one Foa pulling rocks against 5 Galu meaning the Fao alliance has a 70% chance of winning the rock bag.
Rule Problem
The situation of an HII played at a tied TC is unclear. The Rules as we know them from S16 (Kathy) is unclear in that this situation is not addressed directly. The simple reading of the rules (CBS had to pay Les and Tom for an error in S3 under threat of suit) is that a lawyer would contend that the rules read that an IC immunity keeps you out of the bag but a HII (not won at a Challenge) does not. The rules would not qualify the term immunity if exemption from the bag were applicable to all immunities. Regardless of this situation what matters is what the players might think and we don't know how this situation (the HII played at the tied TC) will be understood by the players and impact decisions and events.
Problem with a Foa Holding HII
But there are two things hard to explain with a Foa holding HII. 1) Shambo's betrayal must be known to Galu so she is unaware of the targeting. Given her acting job at the previous TC where she remained covert and cast a knowingly annulled vote at Russ "10-9-8" we have no reason to believe this or 2) Shambo doesn't tell Fao who Galu is targeting, which makes no sense or 3) Galu is on to Shambo, is uncertain which Foa has HII, so decides to vote Shambo. Shambo tells Foa this and either the HII is not found at all or its not given to Shambo for any number of reasons.
As much as Galu may want to target Russ unless they are holding HII and this is known collectively, they would be foolish to target Russ.
Explaining Foa Targeting the Obvious Laura
If Galu is on to Shambo, then they would likely give the HII to Laura. If Foa thinks Galu has the HII, then would they target Laura again given that she's the obvious target? Only if they believe that Galu has no reason to suspect Shambo. But even if that's the case, why target Laura? If Laura was following Russ around, then they'd know she doesn't have the HII. Even if Shambo has been outed, Foa could run cover that they are not targeting Laura again (because its too obvious) and they're going after any of the others. Galu would think this makes sense. It is also hard for a person to give up HII to another if they're not sure who the target and a tie vote is looming (and being immune from the bag is a happy thing). The Targeting of Laura favors a Foa holding immunity, but does not require it.
A Galu with HII
A Galu finds the HII E10 and flips - Either confident that Laura is the target (most likely) or holding the IC immunity, and unaware of Shambo's betrayal, HII is not played. With the TC tied and a Foa holding IC immunity, you are looking at a 57% chance (assumining that the HII even if played does make you immune from the rocks) of going home. If you betray the other 3 Galus you can expect to be Foa's or a faction of Foa's target after the other 3 Galus have been Pagonged. But maybe one or two Foa would want you beside them in the F3. You assume that Shambo will have Foa's loyaty more than you (since its now outed that she's in with them first) and she's less of an IC threat.
If the Galu with HII does't flip now and some other Galu does - he/she would face being one of the next 3 targets. But even if things works out E11 and you are targeted, all you do is kill off a Foa, you can't stop the Pagonging - for example, E10 is 6-4, E11 is 6-3 with a Foa dead due to you playing the HII and being targeted, E12 is 5-3 and you're dead as retribution for the HII played E11 unless you can go on an IC run. If you don't play the HII E11, then E12 its 6-2 and Fao can divide 3-3 and thwart your HII (all you do is flip a stop with the other remaining Galu). You would have to presume that Foa would collectively know that none of the them found the HII and that it is either unfound or in the hands of a Fao. Since Laura, Monica and Dave it appears, were busy following Russell around, Fao would assume the HII is in the hands of either Brett or John (if these two didn't spend their time chasing Russell). So Foa would target the Galu, E11, who they saw most of the time not finding the HII. You've got to assume that Foa in the majority is a solid block that isn't going to divide until maybe 5, - 6 at best - and by then you're dead.
If the Galu with HII doesn't flip and some other Galu doesn't flip then he/she has got something like a 1 in 7 shot at the rock and depending on which alliance has the IC holder either a 3 in 7 or 4 in 7 chance of being in the minority. Assume Foa has IC immunity, then its a 57% chance you're going into the minority or dead with the HII in your pocket and will be at E11 TC facing a 5-4 Pagonging and having to get targeted and play the HII to get the game back to 4-4 for E12. With Laura still alive Foa would assume she has no HII so they might well target her again so you could give her the HII. But you've got a bunch of flakes facing a solid Fao so they might turn on you (assuming you let them know you have the HII and they want it back in play). You would have to presume that some idiotic Galu will, facing the Foa+Shambo majority, seek to appease and find favor by outing your possession of the HII. Foa would not want to reveal their target E11 due to the unknown HII.
Brett Living Longer than Jaison and Shambo
This makes some sense if he's the flipper. It makes more sense if either at TC10 or soon thereafter Brett gets the HII.
Assume the boot order on TDT is correct then using backward reasoning several explanations make sense:
Scenario 1 - Brett has HII (doesn't reveal to Galu) and flips, Laura goes E10, the other 3 Galus are Pagonged, he finds cracks in Foa or tries for some kind of appeal to the Galu jury by killing Shambo with his HII deployment with 6 at TC, he wins the next IC (Jaison goes), and then the Foa kill him at 4. Or Brett wins IC at 6, the Foa originals hold and kill Shambo. At 5 Russ wins IC (or maybe you want him in the F3) so you play your HII at Jaison (a bad F3 rival and an IC threat).
Scenario 2 - Jaison has HII, Bret flipped. He holds it until the Pagonging of the 3 remaining Galus is complete. At 6 Foa then starts the end game and fractures with Russell taking in the two Judases who he wants to face the Jury plus maybe Natalie who he probably intends to betray at 4. They target Jaison. Jaison catches wind of it and with Russell holding IC immunity he takes out Shambo with the HII.
Cheers
7o62x39
