The reason John's move was smart... in Survivor Sucks Forum

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The reason John's move was smart...

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aiharaindropsotr	The reason John's move was smart...	Lead	[-]
Posts: 455 (11/19/09 10:08 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only real failure in life is the failure to try. Remove this ad The chances of Foa Foa being voted after a 2nd tie was only 2/7. If Foa Foa got the rock and they go home, John would have been voted off 5, with Laura, Dave, Monica, and the other guy remaining. With Laura out, John gets voted off 6 or 5, with a very shady and powerful Russhole remaining, followed by the rest of the three... That's a potential for 4 or better. Going with Foa Foa is the better choice.
Pulau Tiga		#1	[-]
Posts: 5701 (11/19/09 10:11 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Er, not really. John didn't make a mistake, but your math is off. There was a 3/7 chance that Galu would gain the majority with one of Russell/Natalie/Shambo leaving. In which case he has room to maneuver, but not much, being as he'll be facing a tribe that doesn't trust him and wants him gone, and he won't have curried favor with Foa Foa by voting against them anyway. There was a 3/7 chance that a Galu member would leave, putting him in the same position he's in now, except he doesn't have Foa Foa's favor and again, has little room to maneuver because of it. There was a 1/7 chance that he himself would go home. Rather than take any of those odds, he tried to play both sides and probably thinks he can work with Russell long term.
zzzazzzazzz		#2	[-]
Posts: 914 (11/19/09 10:11 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	You kind of forgot Shambo, the person 100% behind Foa Foa, so it's 3/7. If Shambo/Jaison/Russel went home, then John/Brett/Monica/Laura/Dave would have enough votes for the majority. But there's a risk involved.
ThrowMeGabon		#3	[-]
Posts: 934 (11/19/09 10:15 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only angle I can see it being smart is that John was playing a completely irrelevant game, and now he's actually thrown his hat in the ring and started to play. You have to make some kind of move if you want to win, especially with a F3. As far as numbers and probabilities go, though, he should have taken the risk. He could have jumped the Galu ship after taking down a couple Foas and accomplished the same goal.
aiharaindropsotr		#4	[-]
Posts: 456 (11/19/09 10:16 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Shambo is supporting Foa Foa, but Galu don't know that. Galu only know that Shambo doesn't like Laura. And, technically, Shambo isn't Foa Foa. She's Galu. 2/7 is correct. Also, someone else in another thread pointed out that by not voting Laura out in the first round is displomatic, he appeases his Galu tribe. With the 2nd tie looming, John has an excuse -- he doesn't want to risk the chance of going home by a fucking rock; he appeases Boa Boa.
GrenadeJumper85		#5	[-]
Posts: 14452 (11/19/09 10:21 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Uh, it was smart because what person would take a chance on pulling a fucking purple rock from a bag just to keep some old hag safe?!
Pulau Tiga		#6	[-]
Posts: 5706 (11/19/09 10:23 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	For the record, there are certainly times when taking the PROD risk is worth it. I support ballsy players who know when they have to put their asses on the line and leave things up to fate because it's their best option. I just don't think this was a situation where the potential rewards were worth the risk. John's best possible situation coming out of TC involved him not forcing the tie at all.
patrickofthewhite		#7	[-]
Posts: 649 (11/19/09 10:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	aiharaindropsotr wrote: Shambo is supporting Foa Foa, but Galu don't know that. Galu only know that Shambo doesn't like Laura. But John did know that Shambo was working with Foa Foa.
Mimicker		#8	[-]
Posts: 66 (11/19/09 10:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Prob ( John stays in the game another day \| he votes for Laura ) = 100.00% Prob ( John stays in the game another day \| he votes for Natalie) = 85.71%
ThrowMeGabon		#9	[-]
Posts: 936 (11/19/09 10:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	It's not about the old hag, it's about the numbers. Now he is totally at the mercy of Shambo, and Shambo's a crazy bitch. If Shambo sticks with Foa, he's just exchanged fifth place for sixth.
Mikester		#10	[-]
Posts: 7861 (11/19/09 10:27 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only real failure in life is the failure to try. Remove this ad It wasn't smart.
cardswin5		#11	[-]
Posts: 2152 (11/19/09 10:30 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mikester wrote: It wasn't smart. X
El Hutch		#12	[-]
Posts: 1984 (11/19/09 10:31 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mimicker wrote: Prob ( John stays in the game another day \| he votes for Laura ) = 100.00% Prob ( John stays in the game another day \| he votes for Natalie) = 85.71% how so? if he voted for laura, he could be sitting on the ponderosa with a purple rock in his pocket.
Die Apokalyptischen Reiter		#13	[-]
Posts: 1709 (11/19/09 10:58 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	John's playing "Who's the last Galu standing?" Just like Laura and Kelly a few weeks ago. And everyone in Galu.
agent2424		#14	[-]
Posts: 4712 (11/19/09 11:00 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	like I said in the other trhead... I think John made the right move if he can crack into the alliance.... he has the "take me because Galu will hate me card" and Monica tried to switch the votes to save Laura...WITHOUT consulting John.... do you know how pissed that would make someone? To make a tie on them with a chance of going home...
cginspace		#15	[-]
Posts: 9798 (11/19/09 11:04 PM) AI/X-Factor Moderator Reply Quote More Recent Posts	All I know is John is hot
AmightyRo		#16	[-]
Posts: 1299 (11/19/09 11:06 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think John made the right move at the time. If he ends up getting the boot next, it was obviously the wrong move. But I would not risk going home that night over Laura. He doesn't owe his life to her. He still has a chance to try and break Foa Foa.
cardswin5		#17	[-]
Posts: 2156 (11/19/09 11:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	AmightyRo wrote: I think John made the right move at the time. He still has a chance to try and break Foa Foa. No he doesn't. Purple rock was his best chance at breaking up Foa Foa.
Pulau Tiga		#18	[-]
Posts: 5721 (11/19/09 11:11 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	cardswin5 wrote: No he doesn't. Purple rock was his best chance at breaking up Foa Foa. It's not that ridiculous to think John should be able to work with Russell, although I don't think Russ will let that happen. If John's goal is to paint himself as the goat that should be taken further than the threatening Mick/Jaison duo, then he's making the right moves to try to make that happen.
Seyz		#19	[-]
Posts: 542 (11/19/09 11:11 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	What happened to the fire making challenge anyway? Anyhow John is not playing a "logical" game although Survivor is never logical. If he assumes (like the rest of us assume) that Foa Foa stays united (which is usually the case in Survivor history), he has absolutely no chance of making it past Final 6 into the Final 3 unless he wins 3 straight immunities Chances of that I believe are 1/120 (err.. maybe my math is wrong.. but that's what I get) and that's only if you assume he gets Final 6. Of course, it's survivor, and Foa Foa could cannibalize each other, but they seem pretty damn tight at the moment. (Edited to add that my math is probably wrong).
AmightyRo		#20	[-]
Posts: 1301 (11/19/09 11:12 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only real failure in life is the failure to try. Remove this ad cardswin5 wrote: AmightyRo wrote: I think John made the right move at the time. He still has a chance to try and break Foa Foa. No he doesn't. Purple rock was his best chance at breaking up Foa Foa. It may have been the best chance at breaking them up, but it's not worth going out in 10th place. Anything's possible. From a viewer's point of view, I would have loved for him to go to the rocks, but from a player's point of view I think it's smarter.

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The reason John's move was smart...

The reason John's move was smart...