I've been remiss in not posting every week. I'm sure everyone's felt lost and confused.
http://tvwatch.people.com...l-knows-when-to-hold-em/
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TheWizard |
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Latest blog is up! I talk about rocks, John, and of course Russell.
I've been remiss in not posting every week. I'm sure everyone's felt lost and confused. http://tvwatch.people.com...l-knows-when-to-hold-em/ |
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Miles Edgeworth |
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yea soz, ensuring ones safety above the group is first and foremost in any game. he may be on the wrong side of the vote now but as monica made glaringly
obvious, he never was on the right side with his galus. So what would be the point in voting with him when he knows he would be dumped at their next possible
convenience?
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TheWizard |
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Miles Edgeworth wrote:I actually thought about that before writing the blog but we know so little of the intra-Galu dynamic that it's hard to really know where John stands in the hierarchy. This episode he was on the periphery of the strategy conversations, but he's usually at the center of them. So I assumed he was solid with the Galus and - based on the only credible evidence we've seen - still had some vestigial guys' alliance. Anyway, that is MUCH safer than being at the bottom of the Foa Foa Five. He can't honestly believe that they'll give him even 5th place for flopping. It's not rocket science. |
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JT4ever |
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Well, Kelly mentioned in her joannandstacy interview that when they got back to camp after the Erik boot, the Galu women found out (I'm guessing from Brett
or possibly Dave) about John's part in the plot to line up Monica for a possible idol bounce at the merge.
This explains why Monica was perfectly happy to shop his name to Foa Foa (ironically in an attempt to do the the exact same thing Erik had done with her name in the merge episode). So when John caught wind of the plan, his reaction wasn't all that different from Monica's when she found out Erik was playing with HER game life. Only, Laura paid the price instead of Monica. It's also worth mentioning that the power odds were also against Laura's side of the tie once Mick won immunity. Had things gone to random draw, there were 3 people against Laura at risk (Jaison, Shambo, Russell) and 4 people for Laura at risk (John, Dave, Monica, Brett). So in addition to the 1 in 7 chance of going home, John was looking at longer odds for his group to emerge with the upper hand. All this really to show some sympathy for John's decision. At the end of the day, though, I agree with your conclusion. As bad as his position was, John should have rolled the dice. At least then, he would have had a chance of getting a numbers advantage on Foa Foa. As it was though, he exchanged a bad position for an arguably worse position. |
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Miles Edgeworth |
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but you still have to get there. We can run through hypotheticals all day but if he draws that purple rock its his ass going home for somebody who just tried
to throw him under the bus. Now obvo foa foa as a whole wont accept him into their fold and this could turn out badly for him, but there are still moves to be
made for john.
And if I got the rules of the purple rock correct ( people voted for being immune from it) than he would have only had a 2 or 3 in 7 chance of getting the desired outcome of getting rid of a foa foa. Those are pretty bad odds to put your ass on the line for. |
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Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
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Posts: 9645 (11/20/09 11:36 AM) Registered user |
Or there's the unlikely but still plausible and fun theory that John just wanted the purple rock to come into play for the hell of it. :)
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TheWizard |
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JT4ever wrote:I agree. It was a hard decision, and I don't think anybody can really say what they would do without actually being in that specific position. I mean there are so many subtle interplays of dynamics happening on that beach - John doesn't just have a relationship with Russell and Shambo, he has a nuanced relationship with every single one of the other people. So obviously that comes into play. That said, not only has he screwed his group on numbers, but he's completely alienated the rest of Galu. I'm guessing they all know it was him from the way Dave Ball was staring down the aisle after the vote. And on a side note - interesting that he got seated at the extreme end of the group last night. |
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JT4ever |
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TheWizard wrote:Yup, the producers totally knew he was planning to flip. He's the last person to cast his vote. This makes even the unedited clip of the 2nd Tribal Council very dramatic. By the way, in the first TC, when he writes Natalie's name, he says to the camera point blank, "Don't worry, you're not going home." So he clearly wanted to confirm the tie before he made his premeditated move. Perhaps he wanted to prepare an alibi, "I had no choice. I did it to save all of us, etc." |
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River50 |
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I think we have to take into consideration that basically, at *every* post merge TC, the Foa Four have emphasized that they still have hope and that they are
still waiting for someone from the other side to realize that this is now an *individual* game - so should any Gaulu member approach the Foa Four, they are all
ears as well as 4 solid votes. Whether it's true or not, it's excellent game play at TC. John may have erroneously thought this past TC that once the
Foa Four are in the majority, that sentiment still applies (especially given past conversations between himself and Russell where Russell was basically
flattering him to bring him on board when the merge was new). Thing is, Foa Four has manipulated tribal council emotions and voting, and I just love it.
Actually, even Mick had his part in that effort during TC this last vote. Take another look at the conversation that took place during the last TC. His
comments were aimed at John for sure.
I really think that people just don't realize how important the TC arguments really become in this game. It's the chance to persuade and to present a conflicting viewpoint that challenges pre-existing assumptions. The Foa Four have had a consistently very subtle influence on how people play based on how they have presented themselves during TC, in my humble opinion. By the way Stephen, I loved your latest interview with Laura (forget the site). I love self-deprecating humor - adorable. Edit: I found it. The Dalton Ross recap. But Laura doesn't fool me - it matters not what anyone says during the final speech, she will vote for who she thinks is "a good person" first and foremost. If Russel is in the final 2 or 3 or whatever it turns out to be, and she votes for him to win (and I think at this point, he is the obvious choice), I will eat my words. I thought this about Tocantins jury members too - which is exactly why I am wary that you could have won against any potential finalist (to my chagrin).
Last Edited By: River50
11/23/09 12:54 AM.
Edited 2 times.
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chapera rocks |
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Stephen, did you ever take notice of the seating arrangement and what it could mean at tribal council?
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SuperJude |
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Why does every blogger feel the need to hand out stupid awards? Fishfuck is awarding Fishies? Forealz?
I love the blog. That is to say, I love reading everything already posted at Sucks being posted at EW by Fishfuck as original thoughts. Grand! That's a great lesson, if you find an obscure but knowledgeable fanbase, you can rip off all their thoughts and claim them as your own providing some outlet gives you the forum with which to do so! -SJ™ |
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TroubleInTampa |
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Never say Fishfuck is plagiarizing Sucks! Courtney must be proud.
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TheWizard |
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River50 wrote:I think that's a great point and it's something that struck me in my interviews with Laura. (Here's the link! http://tinyurl.com/y89evsy) When Dalton asked her -why- she thought anybody would vote with Monica for John, she basically says, "Well we thought this was a chance with them to vote with the Galu." FF had managed to completely convince them that this was all they wanted - a Galu to hang their hat on. |
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TheWizard |
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chapera rocks wrote:I didn't but now I wish I had. I always assumed they just mixed things up. I mean there were certain height requirements and certain necessary angles. Looking back, JT and I were weirdly -always- on opposite ends of the room post-merge. Don't know why. Maybe so we couldn't collude in a last-minute switchup? |
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TheWizard |
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SuperJude wrote:Well, I write the blog immediately after the episode airs on east coast time, so I don't really have time to check out Sucks. (Though to be fair, sometimes I do post here while the episode is airing) That said, there aren't really -that- many things you can say about strategy in an episode like that one, so I'm not surprised that some of the thousands of posts here have the same opinions as my blog. Wow - I said it was a good move for Russell to target John and hold strong with his own alliance? Only one person can come up with that opinion, once! Or do you mean when I brought up how JT, Taj and I were ready to go to rocks. Was that something previously posted at Sucks? Bc it never made air, so that would be freaking miraculous. I mean there are basically two positions to take on John's move - one is that it was a good move; the other is that it was a bad move. I actually was thinking this past week that I -should- check out Sucks more before I post my blog. I often will read things here on Friday that I wish I had responded to in my blog. It's interesting to see what people are taking away from the episode, and of course I want what I'm writing about to be relevant to people's impressions and to answer their questions. Also don't be so hard on yourself. Sucks isn't obscure. Everybody reads it, from contestants to producers to press. |
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token lunatic |
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Hey producers, if you are reading this, now is your chance to fuck with us and make it look like Shambo is going to get the boot, ONLY TO HAVE SHAMBO GET THE BOOT.
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JPOz |
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The Wizard wrote:
When Dalton asked her (Laura) -why- she thought anybody would vote with Monica for John, she basically says, "Well we thought this was a chance with them to vote with the Galu." Seems like Laura wasn't really paying attention to things out there. Based on the editing we saw it looks like Natalie was the force which led to Erik getting voted out and in the next episode Laura said it was a chance for Natalie to prove she was with Galu and would vote against Russell...and Natalie proved she wasn't with Galu. |
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SuperJude |
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TheWizard wrote:Like I said, obscure Fishfuck, I don't actually think you rip off our thoughts and post them as your own, it's simply fun baiting you with conspiracy theories. What you have to understand is that you are going through the typical Survivor withdrawal. All of you go through this and some of you go through it here. You post for the following season as you are still unwinding from you own and then, unless you are one of the truly fucked up in the head attention whores like Eliza or Jenna, you disappear after said withdrawal season. Thus, the constant scorn and insults. Why get attached to something you know is going to leave? It's rather sad! I always remember this when I'm about to type Stephen instead of Fishfuck. -SJ™ |
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goose |
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You left off Krazy Kathy and Chettyboy.
However, others may post just as often anonymously. |
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TheWizard |
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SuperJude wrote:I see. It's like a serial killer gives his victim a nickname. |
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