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guatemala fanfic wrote:

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I'm upset. I just lost this post TWICE and have to retype it again...

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I'll get into my main post in a second but...

Blake, I don't mean anything negative by this at all so please don't take offense to it, but I do find that you are really stretching things because you want to be right so bad or have convinced yourself you are right about Mick. And since you are viewing him as the "winner," you are kindof trying to create something out of nothing (with manipulated shots at TC) in order to further justify your pick. When you are convinced something will happen, it's easy to zero in on things and make them seem more significant than they really are. Certain arguments that you are making would not have worked with you when other people were making them for Amanda or Erinn, etc.

Now, I do agree with you that Mick is being hidden. I'm not exactly fully in the Mick camp anymore - I'll probably continue to vote for him - but I do have a few points to make and I think you would agree with this: One thing we have to keep in mind (we meaning all Edgicers) is that Mick is boring, monotone, and is simply not doing anything interesting. I don't think that's just my opinion; I think it is pretty clear. The audience doesn't know anything about him except being the leader and a doctor, but is there really much to know? It's obvious that Russell is basically doing all of the strategy for Foa Foa with Natalie doing a bit of manipulating on the side with the Galu women. This is what we've seen. Mick has just stayed in the shelter and done nothing while Russell tells him and Jaison how to vote. We've seen that Mick keeps calm and cool and "does his thing" (Erik said something like that about him). This is how he's playing the game so it's not going to warrant a CP edit like Russell is. He's not the strategist. He's not the mastermind. He has not been a target at the merge.

I try to think of how the finale recap would portray him and the Foa Foas, and I see it saying something like "At the merge, Foa Foa was outnumbered 8-4. Mick kept a cool head while Natalie formed relationships with the Galu women and Russell scrambled with the former Galu members, making him their first target." Jaison would probably be left out of it. I think a lot of people have said this, but it's hard to imagine Mick possibly winning the game on his own merits. I don't even know that we could say Russell would lose a jury vote for being hated right now. I don't know if he is hated out there. That could be what they want the audience to think but I think it's possible that he could get respect as the true "leader" of Foa Foa and as a mastermind who overcame odds. I think he'd say that he took the game by the horns and basically controlled everything even though he was in the minority. If this is the case, his edit makes complete sense. So even though some people say "it's the story of how Russell lost, I'm not sure we've seen that. I can see Kelly and Laura voting against him, for Natalie, but other than them, I don't know.

If Natalie's in the F3, I think she would emphasize her personal relationships, her growing as a person and accomplishing things outdoors that she never thought she'd do (ie. killing a rat in Episode 9). Possibly a little bit about overcoming stereotypes too and not being as dumb as people might have thought she was. I do think it's a valid point that these stories of personal growth and overcoming obstacles typically don't win. Nevertheless, Natalie explained her strategy in Episode 4 and so far she's done exactly what she said. We saw her forming the relationships with the Galu women and I also don't see the jury having a clear reason to vote AGAINST her. Yes, Russell could say she rode his coattails but she'd have a few votes that she could earn on her own, particularly the Galu women (especially Kelly and Laura who might be bitter towards Russell). I'm not sure if she'd be able to get enough votes though since we really haven't seen her bond with the Galu men at all. Mick's and/or Jaison's votes might be up for grabs if they are on the jury. But the point is that we have no reason to believe that Mick would earn votes over Natalie or that the jury would NOT vote for Natalie.

That brings me to Mick: if he's in the F3, what could he say? I think it would have to be that he remained calm and cool and waiting for an opportunity to do whatever (make a move? - will he make one?), knowing that if things didn't work out with Foa Foa that Russell would be targeted first and then Natalie. So he wasn't in immediate danger. What would the jury question him about? I think it would be about poor leadership on Foa Foa. The fact that he has never been blamed or given negative portrayal for this is perhaps the biggest thing that makes me think he might win. I think the other thing he might be asked about is this supposed easygoing "calm and cool attitude." Something along the lines of how could he not really do anything when his tribe was in danger of being picked off? I'm not sure if his answers to that could actually earn him votes - votes that might actually not be going against Russell or Natalie after all.

I consider these to be the three strongest contenders and most likely in a F3 scenario because a Galu pagonging seems imminent with the Foa Foas in control and Shambo can't possibly win logically. If she's in the F3, then I think she's the "Sugar" and she gets no votes. After the merge episode, I un-eliminated Jaison because of KittyPryde1 making some strong points about his edit that I hadn't considered. Two episodes later, he's kindof fallen off my radar again. His edit has almost been as up and down as Shambo's, which I don't think is good. The quitting thing isn't good and with his P trend right now, I think the editors will try to redeem him a little bit before he's voted off and he'll probably go out on a P note, and maybe earn some respect back but I don't see that he's had a coherent winning story from start to finish. Mick's is there but it's so bland and boring that it's barely detectable.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mick is the person in this year's F3 who is insignificant and gets 0-1 votes. He could be the "Becky" or the "Cassandra." It would explain why he got a "decent" edit before the merge and why he's been pretty inconsequential to the post-merge game. But I also think we can't underestimate the fact that he really is boring and he's not doing anything strategic. Aras, Yul, and Earl were all arguably monotone and boring like Mick, but the difference is they were involved in the strategy. They didn't have a "Russell" who was making all of the moves and is also 100x more entertaining and therefore is naturally going to get more airtime. I still agree with Blake that Mick is getting airtime in the right places and it was good for him that he got a somewhat insightful comment about Monica in this episode. Many of you will give him UTR. He was borderline MOR and it needs to be looked at. I do believe, though, that Mick's merge episode in itself was not horrible for him. Perhaps the episode after, but that's a different argument. While it's true that the winner has tended to have a strong merge episode, I do think Blake has a valid point that there has never been a 12 person merge. Hence, there's less airtime to go around and with Russell being an automatic 5 and doing all the strategizing, the editors having to show the Shambo vs. Laura conflict, Natalie forming the relationships with the Galu women, John's plan to take out Monica, all the Erik stuff, etc. there was really no time for Mick. And he got the confessional about how he was happy about the merge, which was really all he needed. Remember, if he wasn't doing anything that contributed to the story there's no need to show him.

I know I'm talking in circles a little bit because I am genuinely unsure what to make of these edits, but hopefully there are a few good points to consider in this post.

I'm definitely not offended. I think Mick, edgically, is the only candidate, so of course I'm going to assume he wins and try figure out why they would do that. That's how I do Edgic: e.g. with Parvati, I thought she won, so I rationalized why she went UTR for a few episodes (I came to the conclusion that Airai had very little time to get screentime, based on circumstance). Lots of people do that "how would they be edited if they won" scenerio, and that's what I'm doing with Mick.

I think you nailed it regarding why Mick is getting the edit he is: everything is in the right place, but he's very boring and isn't doing much worth showing for entertainment, so he isn't all that visible.

Regarding manipulation shots at TC, I don't think that tells us that Mick is the winner (because I think reaction shots mean little), but it helps distinguish a good UTR from a bad UTR. Natalie had a bad UTR epiosde this week--she was basically off screen for most of the episode. Mick, however, has been in sight and has had thoughtful comments in his UTR weeks, so I think that's important. I've always been big on good UTRs (hidden) verses bad UTRs (ignored/neglected).

Specifically regarding Erinn and Amanda, they had poor E1s which I have always been a big fan of (the winner getting a good start), which is why I wrote them off (although I ended up picking Amanda over
Todd before the Finale when PG got the boot).

P.S. So sorry to see you loose a big post TWICE! When it happens I really want to shoot myself LOL!

Unofficial Confessional counts (ILT hasn't been updating them) courtesy of SFC:


Russell H- 9/ 8/ 10/ 2/ 4/ 4/ 7/ 13/ 8/ 11
TOTAL= 76
AVERAGE= 7.6


Shannon- 6/ 0/ 5/ 3/ 4/ 0/ 0/ 4/ 3/ 3
TOTAL= 28
AVERAGE= 2.8


Mick- 2/ 3/ 3/ 4/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1
TOTAL= 20
AVERAGE= 2


John- 1/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 3/ 0/ 3/ 3/ 6
TOTAL= 20
AVERAGE= 2


Jaison- 2/ 3/ 2/ 2/ 3/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 0
TOTAL= 20
AVERAGE= 2


Dave- 1/ 0/ 1/ 5/ 3/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 0
TOTAL= 14
AVERAGE= 1.4


Monica- 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 1/ 2
TOTAL= 12
AVERAGE= 1.2


Natalie- 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 1
TOTAL= 9
AVERAGE= 0.9


Brett- 1/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 0/
TOTAL= 3
AVERAGE= 0.30