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Past winner Confessionals by Episode 10: (keep in mind we hadn't had a merge so early so a lot of these numbers are primarily the pre-merge for larger size cast seasons)

JT- 2/ 2/ 3/ 2/ 1/ 8/ 10/ 6/ 4/ 4/
TOTAL= 42
AVERAGE= 4.2

Bob- 3/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 2/ 0/ 4/ 3/
TOTAL= 14
AVERAGE= 1.4

Parvati- 3/ 1/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 4/ 4/ 1/
TOTAL= 16
AVERAGE= 1.6

Todd- 4/ 2/ 4/ 3/ 3/ 8/ 5/ 3/ 5/ 4/
TOTAL= 49
AVERAGE= 4.9

Earl- 4/ 4/ 1/ 3/ 5/ 5/ 4/ 4/ 5/ 6/
TOTAL= 41
AVERAGE= 4.1

Yul- 3/ 4/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 5/ 3/ 1/ 2/ 5/
TOTAL= 28
AVERAGE= 2.8

Aras- 1/ 0/ 2/ 3/ 6/ 3/ 4/ 4/ 3/ 2/
TOTAL= 28
AVERAGE= 2.8

Danni- 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 0/ 3/ 5/ 1/ 4/
TOTAL= 19
AVERAGE= 1.9

Tom- 2/ 1/ 5/ 3/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 3/ 5/ 5/
TOTAL= 29
AVERAGE= 2.9

Chris- 4/ 1/ 0/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 3/ 6/ 4/ 6/
TOTAL= 27
AVERAGE PER EPISODE= 2.7

Amber- 1/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 4/ 3/ 5/ 6/ 2
TOTAL= 24
AVERAGE= 2.4

Sandra- 9/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 4/ 3/ 3/ 1/ 1/
TOTAL - 29
AVG - 2.9

Jenna- 3.4
8/ 2/ 0/ 2/ 8/ 3/ 1/ 3/ 4/ 3/
Total: 34

Brian- 3.9
1/ 2/ 4/ 1/ 4/ 3/ 6/ 5/ 5/ 8/
Total: 39

Vecepia- 1.8
2/ 4/ 4/ 3/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 1/ 1/
Total: 18

Ethan- 3/ 2/ 2/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 0/ 8/ 4/ 8/
TOTAL= 43
AVERAGE= 4.3

Tina
0/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 2/ 2/ 7/ 3/ 2/ 7/
TOTAL: 39
AVERAGE: 3.9

Richard- 4/ 4/ 7/ 7/ 4/ 6/ 8/ 6/ 12 /7
Total= 65
Average= 6.5

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Russell H- 9/ 8/ 10/ 2/ 4/ 4/ 7/ 13/ 8/ 11
TOTAL= 76
AVERAGE= 7.6


Mick- 2/ 3/ 3/ 4/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1
TOTAL= 20
AVERAGE= 2


Jaison- 2/ 3/ 2/ 2/ 3/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 0
TOTAL= 20
AVERAGE= 2


Natalie- 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 1
TOTAL= 9
AVERAGE= 0.9

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Susie- 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 8/ 0/ 0/
TOTAL= 12
AVERAGE= 1.2

Becky- 0/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 1/ 0
TOTAL= 5
AVERAGE= 0.5

I've also put Susie and Becky up there. Once again, Natalie gets very similar numbers to surprising 2nd placer Susie...

garyw wrote:

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This season is very unique and I think the winner will demonstrate that.

Mick and Jaison are completely and utterly useless even more useless than Becky and Sundra. I think this is evident in that Galu have had three opportunities to vote one of them out and have gone for Natalie and Russell everytime. Look at Cook Islands Yul and Ozzy were targets. Becky and Sundra were never a boot target. I just don't see how anyone from Galu will vote for Mick or Jaison in a final 3 situation against Natalie or Russell.

Russell will argue to the jury he found all the idols and controlled the game. They all knew it and he still survived.
Natalie will argue she was a great social player, always talked straegy and survived a wipe out of women.

As far as I am concerned Natalie has the three girls votes locked up and Russell has Shambo and Eriks votes locked up.
Where exactly would any votes for Mick or Jaison come in they have done NOTHING.

Danni didn't really have jury connections from the other tribe, only her original tribe. All of their votes went against Stephenie, thus Danni got them. The same could work this season: Mick gets votes from Galu because they don't want to vote for Russell because of what he did to them. Same goes for Shambo. Jaison, if he's in the Finals, I could see winning it. Natalie would get more votes than Russ if she was there, but I think there is something interesting going on:

In EP4 both Russ and Natalie said how they will get votes over the other. What if Natalie loses votes because Russ says she rode his coattails, and Russ loses votes because he didn't make personal relationships/rubbed people the wrong way? They both could hurt each other--they both have a plan. I never really thought about it, but that could be the case. If Natalie or RussH won, I don't think both would get a confessional about how they'd act in front of the jury; rather, I'd think only the winner got it. Since both did, and both suck edgically IMO, maybe it's foreshadowing how they both lose because they both have decent points against the other... if Mick's there, he may be our default winner. The other two eat each other up.

garyw wrote:

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Danni didn't really have jury connections from the other tribe, only her original tribe. All of their votes went against Stephenie, thus Danni got them. The same could work this season: Mick gets votes from Galu because they don't want to vote for Russell because of what he did to them. Same goes for Shambo. Jaison, if he's in the Finals, I could see winning it. Natalie would get more votes than Russ if she was there, but I think there is something interesting going on:

In EP4 both Russ and Natalie said how they will get votes over the other. What if Natalie loses votes because Russ says she rode his coattails, and Russ loses votes because he didn't make personal relationships/rubbed people the wrong way? They both could hurt each other--they both have a plan. I never really thought about it, but that could be the case. If Natalie or RussH won, I don't think both would get a confessional about how they'd act in front of the jury; rather, I'd think only the winner got it. Since both did, and both suck edgically IMO, maybe it's foreshadowing how they both lose because they both have decent points against the other... if Mick's there, he may be our default winner. The other two eat each other up

Whilst, I do agree with your points I don't think a final two season can be compared to this. Russell may be so hated by the end that he may not win against one other person but this is a final 3.

Mick is just SO INVISIBLE for a potential male winner. We have not seen him make bonds with anyone at all.
Natalie is connected to the woman [They still bitch about Foa Foa when she is in the tent and clearly don't see her as evil]
Russell is connected to Shambo and John.
The wilcard votes are Brett and Dave, I literally have no idea who they would vote for but I don't think Brett would vote for Mick as he is clearly a gay fan boy.

I think is where you're throwing Edgic out the window. This is something we can see, in reality, but it isn't reinforced by the editors. No confessionals from Natalie saying she's in with them. Rather, it's unexplained as to why they're targeting her (over say Jaison or Mick) even though she's still hanging out with them. Editors only leave question marks when it isn't important: Natalie isn't important.

garyw wrote:

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I'm so bored of the Vecepia argument. Go rewatch Marquesas she really wasn't as INV as people make her out to be.
She was just a shock winner as the rest of the final 4 were such camera hogs.

I just can't see how Mick can win.
Blake you make note that Natalie isn't important to the story? How exactly is Mick important to the story.

On another note reading Laura's interviews there is no way she voted for Russell.

No, Natalie isn't important period. I never said Mick was important to the story (stop twisting my words and listen kthnx), but he's getting consistent focus rather than Natalie who gets ignored for long stretches and random bursts of airtime. Not very winner-like.