The reason John's move was smart...

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Phuz1		#61	[-]
Posts: 4492 (11/22/09 1:45 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yeah, because there's no way after the remaining Galu are gone that he could possibly get people from FF to realize Russel is a threat who needs to be booted.
chad6		#62	[-]
Posts: 3757 (11/22/09 1:49 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Arguments do work better when you're not sarcastic jsyk. FF has said they are sticking together. Jeff pretty much tells everyone that FF must stick together, and they agree. I'm pretty sure they are sticking together. And if that was John's plan in the first place, then he should have cut a deal with the FF (or some of them) before that TC. He voted against Natalie for the first vote. FF won't see this as loyalty to them. At least not enough loyalty to break up when they have been a sold 4 for a long time now.
Phuz1		#63	[-]
Posts: 4495 (11/22/09 1:58 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	chad6 wrote: Arguments do work better when you're not sarcastic jsyk. Just how long have you been posting at Sucks? Going all Miss Manners isn't a winning strategy here. And John explained to FF that he was voting for Nat in the first round and Laura in the second to cover his own ass. At this point in the season, it's not about proving loyalty; it's about doing what you need to do to get further in the game. As Galu has witnessed, the fulcrum of power can change on a day-by-day basis, and the only way to stay in the game is to observe those power shifts and go with them, which John has shown he's willing to do.
chad6		#64	[-]
Posts: 3758 (11/22/09 2:08 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	But the power is not going to shift if FF has the majority, which they do. They are tight. John going with FF would be the same as if Shambo stayed with Galu, and I think everyone can agree that would be stupid. Putting yourself in a 6th spot on an alliance, that he isn't even really in, is idiotic. Yes, he survived last night's TC, but that's not the point. The point is he put himself in a position where he has no chance to win. Trying to break into an extremely tight foursome is much tougher then maneuvering through Galu. The logic behind John's-move-was-smart-argument is that it is always the smartest move if you are not voted out, and that is not the case.
Phuz1		#65	[-]
Posts: 4497 (11/22/09 2:15 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	But as Probst has pointed out, they've had to be tight because they've been the underdog since Day 1. This is the first time FF has had power in the game; there's no telling how that will change the dynamics. As we saw in the previews, Russell feels cocky enough to start stirring the shit again. If they get cocky, like Galu did, or if something reveals the pecking order and a FF isn't happy about it, the time could come where John could break their alliance.
chad6		#66	[-]
Posts: 3759 (11/22/09 2:21 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I guess everyone's argument is based on how the rest of the game plays out. Which is pointless to argue about anyways. I still think putting yourself in a worse position (6th over 5th) with the hope that somehow people will break up becuase the "fulcrum of power can change on a day-by-day basis" is riskier than pulling a rock. Obviously, I have no statistics on this, but I would think John's chances of winning (which is his ultimate goal and should have been this whole times) is close to zero. Wheeras, sticking with Galu at the F10 might have been statistically risky, but had they survived, he would have actually had some shot at winning without having to rely on FF imploding.
Phuz1		#67	[-]
Posts: 4499 (11/22/09 2:23 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	But, as you're so quick to point out, Galu didn't survive, so now its former members have to scramble. Or they can put their heads in the sand, as Danger Dave has done for the past two episodes, and just wait to get picked off. I'd rather watch somebody strategize than wait complacently to be voted off, whether by the tribe or by purple rock.
Pretorius		#68	[-]
Posts: 80 (11/22/09 2:28 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	chad6 wrote: I guess everyone's argument is based on how the rest of the game plays out. Which is pointless to argue about anyways. I still think putting yourself in a worse position (6th over 5th) with the hope that somehow people will break up becuase the "fulcrum of power can change on a day-by-day basis" is riskier than pulling a rock. Obviously, I have no statistics on this, but I would think John's chances of winning (which is his ultimate goal and should have been this whole times) is close to zero. Wheeras, sticking with Galu at the F10 might have been statistically risky, but had they survived, he would have actually had some shot at winning without having to rely on FF imploding. Had he gone on with the tie and then picked the purple rock (which is completely out of his control), his chances of winning would have been exactly zero. In this scenario, close to zero sounds like a much better choice (ask Chris from Vanuatu). Last Edited By: Pretorius 11/22/09 2:35 PM. Edited 1 times.
chad6		#69	[-]
Posts: 3760 (11/22/09 2:48 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Had he gone with the tie and picked the purple rock of course it would be zero. But it's not zero to just go with the tie. Going with the tie is much better, to me, than placing 6th at best. If I were playing, I would be playing to win, not get far. But again, if your mindset is that "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, THIS IS SURVIVOR" (which I find to be not true at all), then maybe settling for 6th while hoping an underdog 4some breaks up is the way to go.
Katy Carney		#70	[-]
Posts: 9469 (11/22/09 3:29 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	chad6 wrote: Ok, Stop saying John shouldn't have risked the PROD to save Laura. It wasn't Laura he was saving, it was an ally that he needed to have a shot at winning. FF is not breaking up, period. With Galu, he had a chance with the guys, or he could make a switch later on. With FF + Shambo he is 6th no matter what and they can dump him before that b/c with them he has no say whatsoever. His only move now would be to get Shambo to switch back at the F9, but Shambo is kind of an idiot so good luck with that. He made the stupid move. Sticking with FF pretty much ensured he cannot win. totally agree. NO ONE is advocating him putting his neck out JUST to save Laura. It was to put him a better position down the line. Jesus Christ it's not that hard to figure out. Foa Foa and Shambo are now 5-4. Who are they going to look at booting next? They don't NEED John. He's not trustworthy and he's won immunity before. Foa Foa doesn't care about him and Shambo has NEVER liked him. He traded in a 1 in 8 chance to go home tenth for the certainty that he will be gone in the next two boots. Forcing the rock is obviously risky but as the rest of Galu realized, it was their best bet. Even if one of Galu went home via the rock, Laura would still be there and still be the number 1 target. It was actually MOST beneficial to John to keep her around. Now she's gone and he's moved himself back in the boot order a good four places. Genius. Bye John. Retard. Beefcake wrote: Outback wrote: If John can convince Shambo to take Foa Foa member next so to prevent from Foa Foa member gaining majority. John move to flip was smart. But if Shambo decides to stick with Foa Foa and Galu are all eliminated including John. John will goes down as the player that was main reason why Galu exploded. Galu exploded when they voted out Erik -- and that was Laura's doing. Actually that was also John's doing, as he was stupidly trying to target Monica, which got put on Erik and got him voted out. Last Edited By: Katy Carney 11/22/09 3:34 PM. Edited 2 times.
TroubleInTampa		#71	[-]
Posts: 6014 (11/22/09 7:29 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Since when is being a pussy a smart move?
El Hutch		#72	[-]
Posts: 1991 (11/22/09 7:31 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	when you're not announced as 'the newest member of the jury' in the next episode.
TroubleInTampa		#73	[-]
Posts: 6016 (11/22/09 7:33 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	He could have taken the chance and possibly changed the game, but now the best he can hope for is F5. Stupid pussy.
Pretorius		#74	[-]
Posts: 81 (11/22/09 7:46 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	If he were at Ponderosa now, people would be saying "Stupid pussy, he could have aimed at final 5 and because of his stupidity he's 10ª place. Fuckin' moron!"
chad6		#75	[-]
Posts: 3763 (11/22/09 9:17 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	TroubleInTampa wrote: He could have taken the chance and possibly changed the game, but now the best he can hope for is F5. Stupid pussy.
Beefcake		#76	[-]
Posts: 4835 (11/22/09 9:36 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	He DID take a chance and he DID change the game. There was no way he was going to make it past F5 with Galu. Laura, Monica and Brett are solid, and they don't like John. He isn't likely to win by joining Foa Foa, but he was certain to lose by sticking with Galu.
LOLABINGO		#77	[-]
Posts: 7949 (11/23/09 2:02 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yeah, I still don't think he made a mistake by being unwilling to risk pulling the rock, he, or another Galu could have easily pulled that rock. He has made other mistakes though. He will have to play really well now though, both at the immunity challenges, and wheeling or dealing, because, if not, he's a very easy target that will piss off almost no one. It's in his hands.
JLK Name		#78	[-]
Posts: 2229 (11/23/09 2:39 AM) I need a hobby Reply Quote More Recent Posts	John is a really stupid player! and he's a big coward!
BortBort		#79	[-]
Posts: 1553 (11/23/09 2:51 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Seriously y'all, how about you wait and see what happens before you dedicate post after post in thread after thread to John's decision to flip. We can only base our judgement of this decision on what we saw in one 45 minute episode. There are hours and hours of conversations between John and Foa Foa that could have happened leading up to the flip that may suggest that the bond between John and Foa Foa is stronger than it seems, or the bond between the Foa Foas is weaker than it seems and susceptible to being broken. John may have an end game deal with Russell, he may have a deal with Shambo that after they get rid of Laura she flips back and they take out a Foa Foan... All I am saying is that John may have based his decision on something substantial. It could end up being a good move. It could end up being shit. But at least he made a move. Season after season we complain about people being on the bottom of the totem pole in an alliance and doing nothing to change it. From what we have seen since the merge, it appears that John was on the bottom of the totem pole with Galu (well, along with Shambo), so shaking the game up a bit at least gives him the possibility of changing that.
token lunatic		#80	[-]
Posts: 28176 (11/23/09 7:11 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	aiharaindropsotr wrote: Shambo is supporting Foa Foa, but Galu don't know that. Galu only know that Shambo doesn't like Laura. And, technically, Shambo isn't Foa Foa. She's Galu. 2/7 is correct. Also, someone else in another thread pointed out that by not voting Laura out in the first round is displomatic, he appeases his Galu tribe. With the 2nd tie looming, John has an excuse -- he doesn't want to risk the chance of going home by a fucking rock; he appeases Boa Boa. Shambo told Brett that as long as Laura stays, she will be with Foa Foa. Not in those words, but that was her message. Will Shambo flip back? Stay tuned.

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The reason John's move was smart...