S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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kishuu		#4741	[-]
Posts: 2851 (12/12/09 02:13 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd have a photographic memory but it was never developed. Remove this ad Oowatanite wrote: JaimeCat22 wrote: kishuu wrote: Yes it's not edgic at all but really, nobody left has a good edgic edit. It says a lot about the state of edgic that 90% of the people posting in the thread aren't even pretending to do edgic anymore. THIS I would bother if there was even a decent edgic contender left. (aka last season) Anyway aside from the regulars, here is basically a lot of fantarding lately. I'm sticking with Russell/Natalie because this is going to be another Guat/Gabon and I think they're the only two with good connections to the end game. Last Edited By: kishuu 12/12/09 03:08 AM. Edited 1 times.
Joss Wolfe		#4742	[-]
Posts: 1203 (12/12/09 02:38 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Blake: Congratulations on posting with a very well thought out, carefully articulate, and most of all humble post. The one thing that I love about it is that you explain your thought process about it, you explain it concisely as if its your only post and then you bring it out as an argument focusing on more than just the numbers. You discuss the theme, you discuss the context, you discuss the oposite argument, you refute those arguments without being boligerant (sp). It was a very thoughtful post. You will recieve no badmouth from me. I understand why you pick mick. I would have ot agree with your assessment based on all that you posted in the argument and any part of me that would pick other than mick would just be wishful thinking. Because, after all there is no person left in the game that would satisfy me with a win less than mick. But then again, this game is about being an opportunist. Russel and his many controversial idols, and Natalie with her personal and relational ties have provided Mick the opportunity to be in the majority, and from here on out skate through. Was it luck? Absolutely! Do I hate that? Absolutely! But as you said in your section on Russel, the most logical conclusion is that this indeed is a season of why Russel lost. And who knows, maybe this season is all to set up another chance for the "New best player to never win" to have a second shot at it. We will see in time. Just don't gloat to much if and when Mick wins, because as the bible and Seann Rector point out "The Humble shall be exaulted." The same is also true of the opposite. I understand you have had a tough go at it this year on dealing with some of these people in here, me included and I would like to apologize for some of my own stupidity. Wish you well Blake and hope you enjoy the rest of the season Edited to say "Wall of text ^^^^^^"
BlakeB717		#4743	[-]
Posts: 2566 (12/12/09 02:43 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Thanks! Those were very kind words. I won't be gloating. I didn't when JT won. I will, however, be grinning, because it places strength in Episode 1, the pre-merge, overall middle-ground for the winner, no more than 3 UTRs in a row for a winner, and the INV rule. Hopefully a Mick win will stop the "But this season Edgic doesn't apply" arguments we get every season it seems.
AbbyGirl		#4744	[-]
Posts: 80 (12/12/09 04:04 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Great post, Blake! It's nice to see you back here, there was no need for you to leave in the first place. How do you remember all of those things from other seasons? It does look like a pattern that the winner had a quote about the money two episodes before the finale, I would never have caught that! I feel the same as you about the first episode, Mick caught my eye not just because he was picked as the leader, it was the content of what he said, what others said, and really the lack of any other contenders with Russell taking up so much screen time. Jaison stood out to me, but I didn't think he looked as good as Mick did as far as winner chances. Could Mick be an Amanda? Sure....but I don't think so. I would love to see another recap (with pictures!!) of the first few episodes from Warrior/FLF. I think some here are forgetting what the beginning of the season was like, now they are just looking at the merge episode to gage who they think will win. I am one who thinks a good first episode is more important than a good merge episode. Could Mick and Jaison be the next Stephen/JT, or will it be Mick and/or Jaison with Russell? Who will be the third? I think Natalie is getting the perfect UTR final three edit like Becky and Susie had. If she doesn't help to get Russell out before final three, I think she will get more votes than he does if both are in the F3. I don't see all three Foa Foa men in the F3, one of them is bound to fall before that. I think it was fore shadowed that Brett will go on an immunity run (not sure who said it) and it will force one of the Foa Foa men and most likely Shambo, out before F3. Very interesting that we don't really know for sure if Natalie is just with Russell or if she might also be tightly aligned with Jaison or Mick. I think something is being hidden there, possibly to surprise us on finale night. And is Jaison bragging that he is tight with Russell and making all of the decisions with Russell, a good thing for Jaison's winning chances? I really don't think so. I much prefer what Mick had to say about his situation... he certainly wasn't bragging that he was in cahoots with Russell. That is a good thing for him...if he can make it. Plenty of doubt was thrown in for Mick being able to make it to final TC, another good thing for his edit. Sorry for the rambling, I have a bad cold and am under the influence of Nyquil. Santa is going to mistake me for Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer (with a blond wig on)! :)
BlakeB717		#4745	[-]
Posts: 2568 (12/12/09 04:08 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Great post, Blake! It's nice to see you back here, there was no need for you to leave in the first place. How do you remember all of those things from other seasons? Ah, I think I needed to leave. I wasn't getting anywhere with the non-edgic edgic posters and the back-and-forths were giving people headaches, I'm sure. I know it gave me one. My posting still will be limited, for obvious reasons. Photographic memory, Abby. I retain a lottt of useless information.
getting real		#4746	[-]
Posts: 1963 (12/12/09 04:35 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	the bible and Seann Rector point out "The Humble shall be exaulted." The same is also true of the opposite. You mean the arrogant also get to be exulted? Is this a cryptic prediction of a win for Russell?
RobVanStratus		#4747	[-]
Posts: 9573 (12/12/09 04:36 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Not trying to bag on you Blake, but even Mick winning is an edgic abnormality. He would be like Bob or Danni, non-existent and winning only because the player of the season gets roasted by the jury, which I would guess is Russell or Shambo at this point. Yeah he was there in the first episode but it was forced due to the twist of leaders. Take away the leader twist and he's probably gonna lose airtime to someone else because there's no need to introduce him. Not to mention his pre-merge wasn't all that great either. He had visibility but no meat to his edit. And you can say the same for everyone else left. Brett is far too invisible, Shambo is way too much of an OTT character, Jaison seems more like a personal growth edit, Natalie wasn't visible enough early on, and Russell seems like the obvious winner because he's the only one playing so hard but he's way too overblown in visibility.
bryanpasa		#4748	[-]
Posts: 2867 (12/12/09 04:53 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	If Mick and/or Jaison stand in their own feet rather than clinging to Russell....Russell x infinity...Then that would be awesome and we have atleast a decent edgic choice. sad thing is....Everybody has flaws to their edit =/ Spoiler [+] Even if Edgic, didn't predict the winner in Survivor: Tocantins....From the first episode, I think it's JT since he's a cattle rancher and if he would be up against a city-living man, then he'll probably win. I'm surprised that he didn't enter to the top Contender choice. That just means it doesn't matter how much MORs or CPs a person gets. It's the editors' call.
BlakeB717		#4749	[-]
Posts: 2569 (12/12/09 04:59 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yeah he was there in the first episode but it was forced due to the twist of leaders. Take away the leader twist and he's probably gonna lose airtime to someone else because there's no need to introduce him. You can't say that because you don't know that. The winner is almost always introduced in the first Episode. If Mick wins, the chances of him still being introduced is likely. No need to talk about this any further, because it didn't happen, and we can't know. The last time a winner wasn't introduced was in Guatemala, 4 years ago. Editing does change, but never to the point where editing patterns are completely irrelevant. Personally, I think Mick's edit in the first 3 episodes was excellent. It got a little fluffy after that, but remained true to a "times are tough for Foa Foa, gotta get through this, we can do it" storyline. A little less relevant in the merger, but still got airtime and still got strategy (E10 only person to question Monica's motives when she was lying, E11 shown as middleman between Russell and Jaison, E12 mentioning the million dollars and how to deal with our big player Russell). Has Mick's edit been ideal for a winner? No. Is Mick's edit abnormal? I don't think so, especially considering we have such a camera hog like Russell, and such a disaster strategic group like Galu. He still hasn't been shafted entirely. If we count the recap, 3 CPs, 7 MORs, 3 UTRs. Not too shabby, in my opinion. Danni and Bob still followed a good chunk of Edgic rules, and didn't severely break too many either... there were just better choices. This season, however, we don't have that. Jaison and Mick really are our only choices. I can't support Jaison because his content is horrible and he's had the doomsday plateau effect (low visiblity start followed by 2 high visibility episodes, followed by a string of MORs, and returning to CPs at the merger) that Brendan and Cirie had, and no winner has had. Danni and Bob, we can agree, didn't have the best content (but they did have their moments). I think we can agree that Mick's content isn't superb either. But, both Danni and Bob didn't really break anything major, except Bob's ridiculously excessive tone (but with a "theme" dubbed by Probst as good VS evil, we can't be too surprised). Both Danni and Bob, to me, had better Edgic edits than everyone other than Mick and Jaison.
BlakeB717		#4750	[-]
Posts: 2570 (12/12/09 05:07 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd have a photographic memory but it was never developed. Remove this ad BlakeB717 wrote: Warrior wrote: INTRO Jeff: "Though they've not yet spoken, first impressions are all ready forming." Brett: "This lady with her free flowing Mohawk is probably some super outdoors woman that will naturally step forth as our leader." Shambo: "Dude, I'm a people magnet (cut) People gravitate to me my entire life. It's like, Oh my God this chick rocks. We love her." Marisa: "There's a guy that looks tough as nails. He looks like a pit bull. He's like…I wouldn't want to mess with him that's for sure." Evil Russell: I plan on making it as miserable as possible. Making it hell for everybody (cut) to get what I want." Betsy: "When I first started being a police officer I believed every single person I meet, but now I don't believe anybody anymore." 20 strangers forced to live together while battling the elements and each other. They must learn to adapt or they'll be voted out In the end only one will remain to claim the million dollar prize. "39 days, 20 people, One Survivor" First confessional "Like, kind of like a deer in headlights (cut) taking on a leadership role in game like Survivor is a death wish." Second confessioanl "I do have leadership qualities. Being in the operating room you have to make some snap decisions. To get through med school you have to have more than a note from Mom and residency." Third confessional "My nickname has been Shambo since 86. I was in the United States Marine Corp and Rambo had the same bandana I had so everybody was like Shanon, Shambo, Rambo, Shambo. So that's my game name. That's what I'm here to do is to play." Forth Confessional "I really wasn't really surprised that I wasn't written down as the leader. But I really don't see anybody else as a country boy. I've shot and killed and cleaned just about everything that your allowed to in Missouri and probably a few things your not. So I've done all this stuff before and I think that a lot of these people are kinda candy asses." Fifth Confessional "I'm scared; this leadership thing can go south real quick. The highest nail definitely get pounded down in this game and right now I'm like SKY HIGH." Episode One Before The Intro Erinn: "The tall spiky hair model boy (Tyson) …love him. He seems like a good guy to have around." Tyson: "The younger brunette (Erinn), she comes off to me as being the bitch." Stephan: "We have the strung out old lady (Sandy) and it is sort of encouraging to have her because you know your not going to be the first to go." Sandy: "The real tall boy (Stephan) I think he's like a geek. I think I should be able to lead him around real easy." Sierra: "I've been sick. I got some bad tonsils (cut) So I kinda gotta hide it (cut) so I don't get voted out." Ben: "This blond…I have an unfortunate feeling she's gonnna crumble." Jeff: "They come from different walks of life. 16 Americans forced to work together to create a new society while battling the elements and each other. They must learn to adapt Or they'll be voted out." In the end only 1 will remain to claim the million dollar prize. 39 days…16 people…1 survivor INTRO Ben gets the opening scenes first confessional "Game On" Spencer gets 2^nd.confessional. He is the youngest contestant…the trek to camp was hot and hard. JT gets the 3^rd. confessional. He is a country boy that is accustomed to the weather. He can fish and provide but needs to "fit in" with the people. Stephan gets the 4^th confessional He said he saw the country boy (JT) and now thinks that he is "screwed" He doesn't think that he will get along with JT. Erinn gets the 5^th.confessional. "What the hell am I doing out here." Jerry gets the 6^th. confessional. Just got back from Afghanistan…trying to keep low key…doesn't want to be in charge. Knows that leaders are targets. Ben also gets the 7^th. confessional. He says that he is a renaissance man. He tells us who he is and what he does for a living. Brendan gets the 8^th. confessional. After seeing Ben try and make an alliance with him he tells us that his talk with Ben has him "throwing up the red flag" He does not want Ben in the process of winning the game. The 9^th. and final confessional of the opening scene goes to Sandy. Before she disembarks the helicopter she tells us that she is "Pissed". Done, courtesy of Warrior! Per Abby's wishes. Interesting pattern: 4 of the Final 6 has been shown in the intro in both Tocantins and now Samoa: Tocantins: Erinn, Stephen, Coach, and JT are shown... Taj and Debbie aren't Samoa: Brett, Shambo, Russell, and Mick are shown... Natalie and Jaison aren't Last Edited By: BlakeB717 12/12/09 05:12 AM. Edited 2 times.
AveryC		#4751	[-]
Posts: 104 (12/12/09 05:09 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	As far as Danni's concerned she did get an opening confessional and a key tribal council question in her episode 1. Plus she was in a premiere with uber popular returnees Steph and Bobby Jon, with Margaret getting a huge amount of screentime too. Having rewatched the season recently I'd actually say she was more MORP than UTRP (although I think Sundra was also MORP, which is an unpopular opinion too). She wasn't INV at any point either. She also had a great confessional count, higher than Mick and Jaison in this season and third overall in her own. Compare to Natalie who has a measly 9 confessionals to Danni's 28 at episode 12. It seems her UTRness is exaggerated around here in part because Edgic overlooked her. Last Edited By: AveryC 12/12/09 05:12 AM. Edited 1 times.
Bowie.thehole		#4752	[-]
Posts: 588 (12/12/09 05:17 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	For what it's worth, I'll repost what I posted in the Sucks forum. I tried to go the pure logic route and I too arrived at Mick winning, retrospectively vindicating edgic, and lining up with what Blake thinks. Bowie wrote: I think Shambo's "take someone to the end who deserves it" thing is foreshadowing that she may decide to make a play and vote out Russell who's now widely known to be a multimillionaire and doesn't deserve the money. Heck, if she even thought about that for 5 seconds longer, she may even realize that doing so would boost her OWN chances of winning, blindsiding the kingpin of the game, and earning some goddamn respect for once. So although the previews of shifting alliances could be ULTRA misleading, I really do think Mick and Natalie will start to make a move to "kill the snake" and join up with Brett, and convince Shambo to make a majority of 4 against 2, to first vote out Jaison (his personal achievement story coming to a close and getting its own full episode), subsequent to which Russell's idol is rendered useless. If Brett wins immunity next episode, this plan is almost a certainty, but even if he doesn't, I still believe Mick will think it wiser to get rid of Russell as soon as possible -- BEFORE Brett -- and voting out Jaison first will diminish Russell's numbers and influence (at most he may be able to pull Natalie back to make it 3 vs. 2 -- if Mick votes out Brett instead of Jaison, as smart as that might sound, it's actually far riskier because more of Russell's old alliance still remains and their allegiance is far too unpredictable for Mick's liking), then with TWO Immunity Challenges left, Mick+Natalie+Shambo will be able to pick off Russell then Brett (or rather, in the order of them not winning those final two Immunity Challenges). The ONLLLY risk Mick and his temp-alliance have is that whoever's left out of Russell or Brett wins the final Immunity Challenge over Mick, Natalie and Shambo. (It's obviously a bit more risky if it's Brett than Russell, but because of the different circumstances each presents, it's practically the same IMHO). So that's a 1-in-4 shot for Mick. It's indeed a risk, which he's obviously been calculating the entire time. But if anything's clear about Mick's edit, it's that without clear numbers he's a total mess and a total schizo, and the alternative, of not being able to slay Russell and being outclassed at the Final 3 TC, is too much of an unpredictable risk for him, I think. Making this move might pay off spectacularly, whereas being weak and not making the move has a high chance of backfiring, in terms of being able to claim that he in any way "deserves" the million. So if Russell wins BOTH F5 and F4 Immunity Challenges (unlikely; only way he will stay alive IMHO): 1. Russell (F3) - surely has at least 5 votes wrapped up in this scenario 2. Natalie (F3) - may get some votes from the males (Jaison, John, etc) 3. Shambo (F3) 4. Mick 5. Brett 6. Jaison However, if Russell doesn't win the F5 IC, and he goes home, but then Brett luckily wins the F4 IC (1-in-4 shot): 1. Brett (F3) - anywhere between 6 and 9 votes surely 2. Mick (F3) 3. Shambo (F3) 4. Natalie 5. Russell 6. Jaison But if it goes like I'm predicting, i.e. Russell doesn't win both F5 and F4 ICs and Brett doesn't win the F4 IC: 1. Mick (F3) - surely at least 5 votes (Laura, Kelly + Russell & Jaison? Some of the male Galus?) 2. Natalie (F3) - at most 2-3 votes (some male Galus possibly, and maybe Russell) 3. Shambo (F3) - at most 1 vote (I can MAYBE see Russell vote for her but no Galus will vote for her, that's almost certain) 4. Brett 5. Russell 6. Jaison *Note, these predictions all hinge on Shambo making the easy decision to get rid off Russell (or the emotional decision that he doesn't deserve to be in the F3), and also they presume Jaison does not win the F6 Immunity Challenge, or, of course, presuming Russell doesn't bizarrely give his Idol to Jaison.
Warrior		#4753	[-]
Posts: 2998 (12/12/09 07:27 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Well done Blake.
MasterDarkNinja		#4754	[-]
Posts: 2947 (12/12/09 07:55 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Nice theory Bowie, but I just don't see how Russell could end up not being in the finals facing the jury based on his edit, it would make his orbital high visibility and all that seem excessive focus on Russell seem kind of pointless. Why make this into a season of why Russell lost if Russell doesn't even face the jury? That would be like making S12 into a season of why Terry lost, even though he was voted out by Danielle at the F3, there wouldn't be much of a point of it since we'd know why Terry lost when we saw it, because he got voted out. Losing to the jury though is different, the editors have to explain how someone like Boston Rob who dominated the whole game lost when he faced the jury. That was why they turned S11 into a season of why Stephenie lost, because she lost a jury vote, if Stephenie had been voted out at the F3 instead then S11 would have been a completely different season in the editing department, and Steph's edit wouldn't have been even half as negative as it was probably (though she certainly wouldn't have been as P as she was in Palau, and would have probably gotten some N moments anyway if Danni beat Rafe in the finals).
Mypoody2		#4755	[-]
Posts: 10750 (12/12/09 08:03 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mick feels like Marcus #2 to me... jussayin... can we get a comparison of Marcus vs. Mick?
Jedijake		#4756	[-]
Posts: 6022 (12/12/09 08:07 AM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Marcus was voted out before the merge. Mick is now at least in the second-to-last episode. That's one comparison.
Mypoody2		#4757	[-]
Posts: 10751 (12/12/09 08:13 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	They've basically gotten the same editing treatment though. Had Marcus made the finals I think people would be speculating the same things they are with Mick is all I'm saying. Also, I think that Edgic gets way too hung up on numbers. Editing isnt about numbers, it's about storylines. When they sit down to edit a season they don't go. OKAY WE MUST GET THIS MANY CONFESSIONALS WITH THIS MUCH TONE FOR THIS PERSON. No. They look at the overall storyline and what they need to do to achieve that. I think Blake's analysis are the most interesting/clear because he focuses WAY more on storyline and foreshaddowing than he does on the "ratings" Which by the way... fans made up the ratings, editors are not going by these ficticious ratings. I think the ONLY accurate ratings are OTT and INV. I think everything else is make believe. I think the real key to figuring out what the answer to the question of who is the winner of a season is to look at the story that the editors are trying to tell. That's all editing is afterall.
9RedWing19		#4758	[-]
Posts: 2701 (12/12/09 08:40 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mypoody2 wrote: I think the real key to figuring out what the answer to the question of who is the winner of a season is to look at the story that the editors are trying to tell. That's all editing is afterall. The trouble is that this season is either: - the story of how Russell won - the story of how Russell lost And at this point we can't be sure which of the 2 alternatives is correct. This season is not the story of how Brett / Jaison / Mick / Natalie / Shambo won. Edgic tries to identify the winner - given how skewed the editing has been this season (no contestant in the previous 18 seasons has had anywhere near the continuously high visibility that Russell has had), it is not surprising that no contestant is a good fit for the guidelines that have been developed based on the experience of past seasons.
MasterDarkNinja		#4759	[-]
Posts: 2948 (12/12/09 09:33 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Here's my initial ratings as of 1 rewatch, they might still change. Brett: MORP2 (I considered OTT, but he just didn't seem simplified enough for that to me, I may still change my mind on this however. Oh and I finally fixed my spelling for Brett, happy now?) Dave: MOR2 (nothing else to say here) Jaison: MOR3 (I considered CP, but I just didn't see it from him in the rewatch) Mick: CP3 (Certainly had quite of bit of his thoughts and conflict, definite CP) Monica: CPP4 (I'm surprisingly going to have to side with Craig on this, which I didn't think I would originally. Monica wasn't really N, she was the underdog fighting against N Russell this episode. Yeah it's possible for two N people to be fighting each other, but that wasn't the case this episode) Natalie: UTR1 (I can understand INV for him, but I'm going with UTR) Russell: CPN5 (Neutral in the first half, then got N in the second half, one interesting thing to note, it was unusual how dramatic the music was when it looked like Russell might go home at the second TC) Shambo: MOR3 (She was kind of just there) Winner: Russell I noticed one interesting thing this episode though about Russell's edit, one of his arrogant statements was sort of justified/reinforced by someone else this episode. Here's part of what Dave said after getting voted out when we saw how everyone voted. Dave: Russell just played a better game, I think we all underestimated Russell man, he was just born to play this game Russell has been shown saying he was born to play this game before (I can't remember the episode #, I know I've heard him say it in an episode before, but I can't find which one it was), and now Dave is shown agreeing with Russell about that.
chapera rocks		#4760	[-]
Posts: 12210 (12/12/09 09:53 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd have a photographic memory but it was never developed. Remove this ad Final Ratings: BRETT - MORP2 DAVE - MOR2 JAISON - CP4 (He outlined his entire strategy and gave detailed thoughts about his exact thoughts on the end game, how to win votes, and possibly switching gears. Classic CP) MICK - CP4 MONICA - CPP4 (Her entire edit before tribal council was CP. She was the underdog, and she was fighting = P. We were told she was going to stir it up and not give up, which explains her actions at TC. Sorry, negative SPV from Russell only does not equal N. Everything she said about Russ at tribal was backed up by the edit) NATALIE - UTR1 RUSSELL H. - OTTN5 (I really don't think he was CP this episode. He was a chicken with his head cut off, he was spewing how easy this game was, he called Monica a little bitch for trying to stay in the game. Very one note) SHAMBO - MOR3

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)