S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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Hippochinfat		#4761	[-]
Posts: 440 (12/12/09 12:09 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	When I was born I was so surprised I didn�t talk for a year and a half. Remove this ad Russell was weird this episode, because it was like it was two episodes. In the first have he was a very neutral CP, but he was definetly a lot more OTTN in the second half. What that would add up too, I do not know.
JaMalle		#4762	[-]
Posts: 4819 (12/12/09 02:22 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	OTTP please You can't get more one-note with the way they edited his scenes and the SPV. My friends basically busted out laughing when they showed this shot of Brett after he won with his white teeth glistening and the sun beaming on him elegantly. He looked like an American Hero for winning immunity and preventing Russel in taking him out.
BlakeB717		#4763	[-]
Posts: 2575 (12/12/09 02:53 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Does this mean Brett goes on an immunity run? Lol. Looks like it based on the previews... why they completely ignore surprising late game immunity hogs is BEYOND me.. Congratulations to Brett for TYING the most UTRs in a row record! *ETA THREE ugly typos... I guess it all goes downhill once you're off school. Last Edited By: BlakeB717 12/12/09 02:58 PM. Edited 3 times.
craig		#4764	[-]
Posts: 16647 (12/12/09 04:11 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yeah he was there in the first episode but it was forced due to the twist of leaders. Take away the leader twist and he's probably gonna lose airtime to someone else because there's no need to introduce him. You can't say that because you don't know that. The winner is almost always introduced in the first Episode. If Mick wins, the chances of him still being introduced is likely. No need to talk about this any further, because it didn't happen, and we can't know. The last time a winner wasn't introduced was in Guatemala, 4 years ago. Editing does change, but never to the point where editing patterns are completely irrelevant Blake, last season you clung to Sierra to the merge, so if Mick loses we really need to discount ep.1 visiblity that is due merely to a twist. Especially since Monica got an early confessional about how being the leader is bad. And Mick's deeper ep.1 story, of voting against Russell the villian, is passed by editing. In S11 the Strong Nakum Women and Steph were the stars of ep.1 which set up the final perfectly. Danni was part of a group that got a great winning collective edit at the start. (Margeret went out about the same point as Ashley). In S19, Russell's only real ep.1 alliance was with the "Dumbass Girls" - Ashley and Natalie. Ashley is strongly featured because she is the decy boot. So the story is whetehr Natalie can overcome that description and make Russ eat crow by beating him. So it's not a matter of whether ep.1 is important - it's how we interpret it. what sort of edit is important. I think what's important in ep.1 runs deeper than visibility numbers, it's more qualitative.
getting real		#4765	[-]
Posts: 1964 (12/12/09 04:13 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Redwing said: The trouble is that this season is either: - the story of how Russell won - the story of how Russell lost And at this point we can't be sure which of the 2 alternatives is correct. This season is not the story of how Brett / Jaison / Mick / Natalie / Shambo won. Edgic tries to identify the winner - given how skewed the editing has been this season (no contestant in the previous 18 seasons has had anywhere near the continuously high visibility that Russell has had), it is not surprising that no contestant is a good fit for the guidelines that have been developed based on the experience of past seasons. And that's why the guidelines are -a very important - starting point which must be aumented by other logical tools identifying what the editors are trying to tell us. It's as clear as night follows day that is Russell's season, a season dominated by him and seen through his eyes. He has talked the talk and walked the walk, shown himeslf to be a master strategist, a cunning idol seeker and a ruthless compeititor. He has has out-witted and he has out-played. He has shown himself to have all of the ingredients the whole concept of the show has been founded upon. That is, all except one. The one about Survivor being a social game. Russell has been under-estimating this aspect of the game, despite being careful to conine his more extreme vitriol only to the cameras. He has under-estimated his opponents, women and the need to be nice to people. He was shown to delegate this crucial aspect of the game to Natalie. And the editors went out of their way to show us that it was with Russell's blessings that Natalie cultivated Galu, especially the women-folk. Sceptic has talked about Natalie being the quark in the corner the past few episodes. Someone else said that, just like the first episodes, she went UTR, coinciding with the worst of Russell's meanness and negative tone. Both these observations are right. The current stage of the season is all about positioning, about who and how will burn bridges to get to the end. At the moment, it's all about Russell and the reluctance of Mick and Jaison to effect a coup d' etat. By next week (audience time), however, the emphasis will be different. By the time the jury has finished firing their questions at Russell, Natalie and, (probably) Mick, the former will begin to realise the magnitude of his mistake in under-estimating the social game. That he should've heeded Monica's fore-shadowing about her friends, especially the women, voting as a bloc. And with Russell's realisation, because the game has been seen through his eyes, will come the audience's realisation also: THIS IS, ABOVE ALL, A SOCIAL GAME, stupid! The audience ends up kicking themselves: 'How could we have not paid more attention to the most important thing on Survivor?' I don't agree with the editing choices of making Natalie so UTR. However, if the story they were trying to tell was how the best player in Survivor history (with apologies to other notables) dominated a season that should've been his and yet lost because he was frustrated at the end by the social game he allowed someone else to cultivate, that is certainly one way they could do it. Just like Danni, they didn't want to credit Natalie with more than what won the game for both: their social game. And, as suggested earlier, a win by Natalie would not betray the fundamental Edgic philosophy; only one of the (flexible) guidelines. She was tended to pre-merge, was surrounded by distractions, tended to the middle of all indicators, was kept in the audience's mind through various manipulated means and her win in the end was somewhat of a surprise. That the foundation of her win was thoroughly set up through manipulation will become apparent through the selected footage that will be shown after the winner is announced and prior to the reunion. For set up it certainly was.
BlakeB717		#4766	[-]
Posts: 2576 (12/12/09 04:59 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	craig wrote: Yeah he was there in the first episode but it was forced due to the twist of leaders. Take away the leader twist and he's probably gonna lose airtime to someone else because there's no need to introduce him. You can't say that because you don't know that. The winner is almost always introduced in the first Episode. If Mick wins, the chances of him still being introduced is likely. No need to talk about this any further, because it didn't happen, and we can't know. The last time a winner wasn't introduced was in Guatemala, 4 years ago. Editing does change, but never to the point where editing patterns are completely irrelevant Blake, last season you clung to Sierra to the merge, so if Mick loses we really need to discount ep.1 visiblity that is due merely to a twist. Especially since Monica got an early confessional about how being the leader is bad. And Mick's deeper ep.1 story, of voting against Russell the villian, is passed by editing. In S11 the Strong Nakum Women and Steph were the stars of ep.1 which set up the final perfectly. Danni was part of a group that got a great winning collective edit at the start. (Margeret went out about the same point as Ashley). In S19, Russell's only real ep.1 alliance was with the "Dumbass Girls" - Ashley and Natalie. Ashley is strongly featured because she is the decy boot. So the story is whetehr Natalie can overcome that description and make Russ eat crow by beating him. So it's not a matter of whether ep.1 is important - it's how we interpret it. what sort of edit is important. I think what's important in ep.1 runs deeper than visibility numbers, it's more qualitative. I'm not sure what the relevance is to my Sierra pick, which only held up for 4 episodes (she wasn't my pick until Episode 3, so I wasn't influenced by her E1 edit). JT was on my contender list all season because his E1 was good, and rose after Episode 4. Sierra's E1 edit was good, but Mick's was better. Sierra's edit was about how she was sick, how her tribe made a mistake, and how she was trying to correct that by fixing up camp. Where her edit started getting good, for me, was her complexity in Episode 3 and her involvement in the Exile Alliance; but she got cocky and disappeared. Also, Sierra had zero in the recap about her part in the twist, but Mick did (quite a juicy, CP scene, too). I went with Tyson in Episode 1 because his edit hit the notes that Bob did... but JT's did too, but he was too MOR (and Stephen was getting the CP comments in the relationship). JT eventually turned out to be like Tom. This is why I picked Mick right off the bat in Episode 1. Look at the Episode 1 edits, and their timing: In the intro- Bob: "In the winter time I teach high school physics. In the summer time I lobster, do commercial fishing." Followed by: First segment with Kota Tribe... -Bob fixing up the shelter -SPV from Corinne saying he's a "Forever Boy scout" -- JT gets the 3^rd. confessional. He is a country boy that is accustomed to the weather. He can fish and provide but needs to "fit in" with the people, doesn't want to be a bossy leader. This was the first scene (during the trek) for Jalapao. He gets SPV from Stephen who doesn't think they'll get along. -- Second confessioanl "I do have leadership qualities. Being in the operating room you have to make some snap decisions. To get through med school you have to have more than a note from Mom and residency." Followed by: -Positive SPV from Jaison and Marisa about Mick's leadership choices for the challenges -First scene at FoaFoa, Mick says he wants to let Ben paint his own target and let him take the (deathwish, as Monica said) leadership role.. which happened -- Three things ALL 3 MEN have in common: -Intro confessional about who they are back at home (personalization) -Segment in the camp's first scene of the season -SPV from another player That's why Mick got his pick from me early. It's just too damn similar. Mick's E1 was better than Sierra's, because we didn't learn about Sierra (no personalization confessional). Mick not getting anything regarding him voting Ashley is perfectly fine. It would completely contradict him letting people paint their own target... him pitting himself against Russell (in the editing) would look dumb. The editors have carefully made sure Mick hasn't been in the direct path of Russell. Especially now, where Jaison is getting all the blame but Mick is the one talking about how he's the one who doubts Russell. Why not give this to Jaison? Why not just shaft Mick, since he's not apart of that main action. That's manipulation for you, folks!
astroline		#4767	[-]
Posts: 2906 (12/12/09 05:10 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Final ratings as well. AIGA Brett -- OTTP2 (like I said before, every time he was shown or received SPV it was all about how much everyone loved him and how good he was at the challenges. Everything was very one-note about how Brett needs to go before he beats them all because he's so awesome and cool and amazing and invisible. OTT for sure.) Dave -- MOR2 Jaison -- MOR3 Mick -- CP3 Monica -- CPP4 Natalie -- INV1 (I'm sorry, but 5 sentences is not enough to get you an UTR1 at the 3rd to last episode of the season. She had no confessionals and no TCQ's in both tribal councils. The editors completely neglected her. I even just asked my mom, my main casual viewer barometer, "Was Natalie invisible in the last episode of Survivor?" and she said, "Yes! Did she even speak?") Russell H. -- OTTN5 Shambo -- MOR3 Winner's list... 1. Russell H. And Blake, I hate to say it, but that post about Bob/JT/Mick's first confessional/scene similarities does make a LOT of sense. I really wish those were the types of analysis you had been using all season long, but I have to admit that if I had a #2, Mick would have to be it.
BlakeB717		#4768	[-]
Posts: 2577 (12/12/09 05:19 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I brought up the Episode 1 similarities Mick had to JT and Bob at least 3 times, Lol. I guess you missed them...
astroline		#4769	[-]
Posts: 2909 (12/12/09 05:22 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Maybe I did because they were hidden in condescending overtones. Take your compliment. Damn. I could say the same for you (and many others) about my posts about all these winners being completely unprecedented, weeks and weeks ago. They all still fit that pattern, but still a lot of you say that Mick and Jaison are traditional Edgic picks. They're not. They just fit the guidelines more than Russell & Natalie, but they still don't stack up as much as people might think they do.
AbbyGirl		#4770	[-]
Posts: 81 (12/12/09 07:05 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	When I was born I was so surprised I didn�t talk for a year and a half. Remove this ad Thank you Blake! You made a girl with the sniffles very happy. Who am I kidding, my nose is like a running faucet! Kudos to Warrior for doing the original, you don't post enough here Warrior. Mypoody, good post. I am not so great with numbers and stats, but I do respect those that do them. I try to follow Edgic in other ways, I think I have a handle on it after reading posts here for so many years. All I can say is Mick and Jaison have the best edits according to Edgic guidelines, it does not mean their edits meet ALL of the criteria listed in the Edgic rules. Mick's edit beats Jaison's because.....well, what Blake said. :) Whoever said Jaison could go next could be right. It could be that we were shown in the last episode that he was more Russell's number two than Natalie for a reason. Mick, Natalie and Shambo might be ready to make a big move. Since Russell has the idol, who do they vote out if they can't vote out Brett or Russell? Someone who is tight with Russell and a threat to them in the finals (Jaison). Okay, I am done for now, I have to stop before the Nyquil rambling begins....
MasterDarkNinja		#4771	[-]
Posts: 2949 (12/12/09 07:16 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	astroline wrote: They all still fit that pattern, but still a lot of you say that Mick and Jaison are traditional Edgic picks. They're not. They just fit the guidelines more than Russell & Natalie, but they still don't stack up as much as people might think they do. What others seem to forget at times is that the winner doesn't always seem to stack up perfectly with some of edgic's guidelines, I can think of a few examples off the top of my head. -Several winners (Yul, Danni, Bob, Amber, I think maybe Vee as well) have had episodes where they were very debatably INV, potentially violating the INV rule if we even have to ask if they were INV or not. We have people in edgic who STILL argue that they deserved an INV in one of the episodes in their seasons. -Some winners seemed to not have distractions at times/be the #1 distraction on their tribe at times (Todd was like this in several episodes, which is part of why he was missed, most notably being the episode where he found the HII and gave it to James, he was a 5+ visibility then, before the merge, he got plenty of confessionals that could have easily been given to someone else to). Also in one episode in Fiji before the merge but after the swap Earl was a 4 in visibility, yet no one else on his tribe got higher then a 2 visibility. How can the winner be hidden if their visibility is 2 points higher then everyone else on their tribe that episode? That was one of the few episodes where Yau-Man got more winner votes then Earl that season. -The guidelines say the winner isn't too UTR or OTT in the long run, yet plenty of us thought Danni and Bob were too UTR and too ignored to win, worse yet for Bob he was also Frequently OTTP when he wasn't INV in the first half of the season, that's a violation of both parts of the rule. Worst yet for Danni and Bob, being too ignored in long stretches also violates the edgic rules, at the time we thought they were both ignored for way too long to win. -The winner isn't typically overly P or N, yet Richard Hatch had N's in 9 out of 13 episodes. That sounds overly N to me. Bob got 8 P's in 13 episodes, that's almost as bad as Hatch, except P's are considered better then N's, and then a few winners have 7 P's (though some had 14 episodes in their season, not 13). In conclusion, despite what we may say, the winner doesn't always seem to fit all edgic guidelines at all points of the season. That's part of why I've said we need to rewrite the guidelines after the season is over to recognize that there's different types of winner edits, edgic is good at spotting moderate visibility CPish winners, but not so good about people on the extremes of either end of visibility. Todd was thought to be too visible, we missed him, Danni and Bob were too hidden/ignored, not visible enough, we missed them. JT was a bit too MORish based on his ratings, and he had a CPish moderate visibility edgic distraction in Stephen with him.
Hippochinfat		#4772	[-]
Posts: 445 (12/12/09 08:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	craig wrote: Yeah he was there in the first episode but it was forced due to the twist of leaders. Take away the leader twist and he's probably gonna lose airtime to someone else because there's no need to introduce him. You can't say that because you don't know that. The winner is almost always introduced in the first Episode. If Mick wins, the chances of him still being introduced is likely. No need to talk about this any further, because it didn't happen, and we can't know. The last time a winner wasn't introduced was in Guatemala, 4 years ago. Editing does change, but never to the point where editing patterns are completely irrelevant Blake, last season you clung to Sierra to the merge, so if Mick loses we really need to discount ep.1 visiblity that is due merely to a twist. Especially since Monica got an early confessional about how being the leader is bad. And Mick's deeper ep.1 story, of voting against Russell the villian, is passed by editing. In S11 the Strong Nakum Women and Steph were the stars of ep.1 which set up the final perfectly. Danni was part of a group that got a great winning collective edit at the start. (Margeret went out about the same point as Ashley). In S19, Russell's only real ep.1 alliance was with the "Dumbass Girls" - Ashley and Natalie. Ashley is strongly featured because she is the decy boot. So the story is whetehr Natalie can overcome that description and make Russ eat crow by beating him. So it's not a matter of whether ep.1 is important - it's how we interpret it. what sort of edit is important. I think what's important in ep.1 runs deeper than visibility numbers, it's more qualitative. Sierra was a case of getting screen time from a twist, yes. Mick being part of a twist doesn't mean he wouldn't be shown if there was no leader twist, he still would have been as he's our winner. Now, if I said this early in the season it wouldn't be correct, but it's late in the game, and Mick has many other things going for him Sierra didn't. But I really don't get the P for Monica. I see her as N, though I could settle for an M. People are giving her a P just because she was going against "Big evil Russell", even though she was portrayed as rude and bitchy. Just because she was going against Russell, it doesn't make either P. If this was true, Yasmin would have been M or P in episode 2 for arguing against Ben, who was the Russell in this case.
WhoLetTheBlTCHout		#4773	[-]
Posts: 263 (12/12/09 08:41 PM) I don't take hints Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Monica's episode 1 confessional finally comes true this episode: She said that being the leader is a death wish. Mick explained to us that he was voted leader the first episode, BUT also stated that NOW Russell is taking on the leadership position; this can mean that Mick wins over Russell.
McPhever224		#4774	[-]
Posts: 469 (12/12/09 09:24 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	chapera rocks wrote: Final Ratings: BRETT - MORP2 DAVE - MOR2 JAISON - CP4 (He outlined his entire strategy and gave detailed thoughts about his exact thoughts on the end game, how to win votes, and possibly switching gears. Classic CP) MICK - CP4 MONICA - CPP4 (Her entire edit before tribal council was CP. She was the underdog, and she was fighting = P. We were told she was going to stir it up and not give up, which explains her actions at TC. Sorry, negative SPV from Russell only does not equal N. Everything she said about Russ at tribal was backed up by the edit) NATALIE - UTR1 RUSSELL H. - OTTN5 (I really don't think he was CP this episode. He was a chicken with his head cut off, he was spewing how easy this game was, he called Monica a little bitch for trying to stay in the game. Very one note) SHAMBO - MOR3 Change Mick and Jaison's visibilities to 3's and these are my rankings as well.
McPhever224		#4775	[-]
Posts: 470 (12/12/09 09:26 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: Glad to see you're posting again Blake!
darknight		#4776	[-]
Posts: 17 (12/13/09 12:26 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Blake made a good case for and against each of the remaining main candidates EXCEPT for Mick when suddenly we were presented with mainly one sided arguments for a Mick win. Glaring exampes Blake left out: 7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. So looking at the current members of the jury who has said anything meaningful or insightful about Mick? What are his Jury connections? The last two boots have made insightful and potentially misleading comments about Russell. Dave "He was born to play this game" and Monica saying to Russell "I'm voting based on need". Both could yet vote for Russell. Mick hs had many negative tone which Blake failed to mention. EG, he betrayed Russell's trust and told others that Russell is rich. He has shown to be lacking motivation and ideas eg when Russell found the second idol mick says "I didnt think there would be a second idol. He (Russell) is good at this". When Ashley got voted off next episode Mick says "I'll be honest, there was some envy last night when Ashley went home, there was a little tinge of jealousy there, i was like oh man you know". Since Blake mentioned 'patterns', well i have watched all past 18 seasons of Survivor more than once and no winner has ever talked up their rivals or spoken about having thoughts of wanting to leave the game. This season is all about how the best player ever dominates and wins (Aka Richard Hatch) or (less likely) loses to his sidekick Nat due to a lack of social game (aka Boston Rob - Allstars). I believe Blake's theory is since Edgic has flaws with all the contenders this season then Blake is simply leaning towards the Editing aspect to pick Mick but if you lean towards the Logic aspect (like i am doing) then its a Russell win and Mick is not even a contender! So Edgic is broken and its either you look more at the editing or you look at logic...i trust logic more! Last Edited By: darknight 12/13/09 12:45 AM. Edited 3 times.
Kitty Pryde1		#4777	[-]
Posts: 11024 (12/13/09 01:45 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	That a major reason why I think a Russell or Natalie win would make sense. When Foa Foa was down and out and struggling, Jaison obviously had his moments, but Mick also had that moment with Ashley, and all his "I can't believe we can't win anything" comments. Russell was constantly praising Foa Foa, and Natalie never had a negative word to say aobut the tribe either.
rioothello		#4778	[-]
Posts: 76 (12/13/09 01:59 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Kitty Pryde1 wrote: That a major reason why I think a Russell or Natalie win would make sense. When Foa Foa was down and out and struggling, Jaison obviously had his moments, but Mick also had that moment with Ashley, and all his "I can't believe we can't win anything" comments. Russell was constantly praising Foa Foa, and Natalie never had a negative word to say aobut the tribe either. Didn't he say they were stupid?
Bowie.thehole		#4779	[-]
Posts: 593 (12/13/09 02:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think there's one mistake everyone here has succumbed to: thinking that the editors want to make us care about the winner. As long as Russell makes the final episode (which with his hidden immunity idol next week is a statistical certainty), I don't think they care how they've edited the winner. They've tried to edit a STAR in Russell (because let's face it, he deserved it), and they'll brush over the winner at the reunion to focus on Russell. We don't need to care about the winner. We've been manipulated to care about Russell's story and his fate, and so the season is a success regardless of the winner. The fact that edgic guidelines don't support any contestant should tell you that Russell's rise and fall is more important to the editors this season than the winner is (of course, unless Russell is the winner).
darknight		#4780	[-]
Posts: 18 (12/13/09 02:12 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	When I was born I was so surprised I didn�t talk for a year and a half. Remove this ad rioothello wrote: Kitty Pryde1 wrote: That a major reason why I think a Russell or Natalie win would make sense. When Foa Foa was down and out and struggling, Jaison obviously had his moments, but Mick also had that moment with Ashley, and all his "I can't believe we can't win anything" comments. Russell was constantly praising Foa Foa, and Natalie never had a negative word to say aobut the tribe either. Didn't he say they were stupid? Yes he did....but he didnt say "I am stupid"...which is more or less what Mick said when he said "I didnt think there would be a second idol"! which confirms what Russell said about his tribe.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)