S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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rioothello		#4781	[-]
Posts: 77 (12/13/09 02:16 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only 15 letter word that can be spelled without repeating a letter is 'uncopyrightable'! Remove this ad Mypoody2 wrote: They've basically gotten the same editing treatment though. Had Marcus made the finals I think people would be speculating the same things they are with Mick is all I'm saying. Also, I think that Edgic gets way too hung up on numbers. Editing isnt about numbers, it's about storylines. When they sit down to edit a season they don't go. OKAY WE MUST GET THIS MANY CONFESSIONALS WITH THIS MUCH TONE FOR THIS PERSON. No. They look at the overall storyline and what they need to do to achieve that. I think Blake's analysis are the most interesting/clear because he focuses WAY more on storyline and foreshaddowing than he does on the "ratings" Which by the way... fans made up the ratings, editors are not going by these ficticious ratings. I think the ONLY accurate ratings are OTT and INV. I think everything else is make believe. I think the real key to figuring out what the answer to the question of who is the winner of a season is to look at the story that the editors are trying to tell. That's all editing is afterall. I agree with this. Which seals my point about Natalie or Russell winning. Someone from his "Dumb ass girl alliance" will win, or Russell will win by showing everybody how easy it is to play the game.
darknight		#4782	[-]
Posts: 19 (12/13/09 02:25 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Bowie wrote: I think there's one mistake everyone here has succumbed to: thinking that the editors want to make us care about the winner. As long as Russell makes the final episode (which with his hidden immunity idol next week is a statistical certainty), I don't think they care how they've edited the winner. They've tried to edit a STAR in Russell (because let's face it, he deserved it), and they'll brush over the winner at the reunion to focus on Russell. We don't need to care about the winner. We've been manipulated to care about Russell's story and his fate, and so the season is a success regardless of the winner. The fact that edgic guidelines don't support any contestant should tell you that Russell's rise and fall is more important to the editors this season than the winner is (of course, unless Russell is the winner). In all 18 seasons previously the editors do care about the winner! Edgic may not be 100% accurate but its still got a fair percentage for the remaining main contenders so there is still some pattern there for everyone. Its just Russell is a unique (potential) winner which Edgic has never come across before. Edgic has one big flaw in that it is totally based on past events and does not take into account flexibility for new and different future events. So it is reactive and NOT proactive in its guidelines. Things change, new types of players emerge, new strategies are formulised and new type of players will win Survivor.
JPOz		#4783	[-]
Posts: 394 (12/13/09 03:11 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	darknight wrote: Since Blake mentioned 'patterns', well i have watched all past 18 seasons of Survivor more than once and no winner has ever talked up their rivals or spoken about having thoughts of wanting to leave the game. No to be argumentative, or pedantic, but Jenna M. almost quit game near the end. Think it was before F4 IC.
getting real		#4784	[-]
Posts: 1965 (12/13/09 03:22 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Darknight said: In all 18 seasons previously the editors do care about the winner! Edgic may not be 100% accurate but its still got a fair percentage for the remaining main contenders so there is still some pattern there for everyone. Its just Russell is a unique (potential) winner which Edgic has never come across before. Edgic has one big flaw in that it is totally based on past events and does not take into account flexibility for new and different future events. So it is reactive and NOT proactive in its guidelines. Things change, new types of players emerge, new strategies are formulised and new type of players will win Survivor. That may be so, but the one constant factor behind the edgic philosophy is that the winner is not portrayed at the extreme ends of the scale in any of the key indicators: in varying degrees all winners have been not too visible or invisible, not too positive or negative, not too OTT, etc. All guidelines are a variation of this, and it results in an outcome, whether intended or unintended, where the winner is not too obvious and that he/she is shielded by distractions. And it probably refelects the editors' philosophy of not giving the game away too obviously also. Even with Tom, the poster-boy for a desirable MB winner, an attempt was made to temper his 'awesomeness' so his win would not be too obvious throughout the season. I cannot imagine that, if Russell had won, that they would not at least have tried to temper his visibility and, above all, his negativity. You're right. There are always new ways to edit seasons and their winners. But the one editing constant, and the one Edgic is founded upon, is moderation. That is why, Edgic will be fine no matter who wins, unless it happens to be Russell or a Galuan. Last Edited By: getting real 12/13/09 03:29 AM. Edited 1 times.
getting real		#4785	[-]
Posts: 1966 (12/13/09 03:26 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	JPOz wrote: darknight wrote: Since Blake mentioned 'patterns', well i have watched all past 18 seasons of Survivor more than once and no winner has ever talked up their rivals or spoken about having thoughts of wanting to leave the game. No to be argumentative, or pedantic, but Jenna M. almost quit game near the end. Think it was before F4 IC. It was at F5 (after Christy left), and the implication was that she did it to appear weak, thereby convincing the men to take her to F4 instead of Heidi.
Kitty Pryde1		#4786	[-]
Posts: 11025 (12/13/09 03:55 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I hardly think Russell has been obvious. He has gotten constant "We gotta blindside Russell" scenes, implying that he won't make it to the end. And he's also gotten constant "I hate this guy" stuff from the jury, implying that he won't win a jury vote. He's got plenty of doubt and it's not like he's a lock if he makes it to the end, so you can't use that argument to eliminate him, gr.
darknight		#4787	[-]
Posts: 20 (12/13/09 03:58 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	getting real wrote: Darknight said: In all 18 seasons previously the editors do care about the winner! Edgic may not be 100% accurate but its still got a fair percentage for the remaining main contenders so there is still some pattern there for everyone. Its just Russell is a unique (potential) winner which Edgic has never come across before. Edgic has one big flaw in that it is totally based on past events and does not take into account flexibility for new and different future events. So it is reactive and NOT proactive in its guidelines. Things change, new types of players emerge, new strategies are formulised and new type of players will win Survivor. That may be so, but the one constant factor behind the edgic philosophy is that the winner is not portrayed at the extreme ends of the scale in any of the key indicators: in varying degrees all winners have been not too visible or invisible, not too positive or negative, not too OTT, etc. All guidelines are a variation of this, and it results in an outcome, whether intended or unintended, where the winner is not too obvious and that he/she is shielded by distractions. And it probably refelects the editors' philosophy of not giving the game away too obviously also. Even with Tom, the poster-boy for a desirable MB winner, an attempt was made to temper his 'awesomeness' so his win would not be too obvious throughout the season. I cannot imagine that, if Russell had won, that they would not at least have tried to temper his visibility and, above all, his negativity. You're right. There are always new ways to edit seasons and their winners. But the one editing constant, and the one Edgic is founded upon, is moderation. That is why, Edgic will be fine no matter who wins, unless it happens to be Russell or a Galuan. Well maybe this season Russell is his own distraction. He is so OTT and 'evil' that no one thinks he will win!
getting real		#4788	[-]
Posts: 1967 (12/13/09 04:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Kitty Pryde1 wrote: I hardly think Russell has been obvious. He has gotten constant "We gotta blindside Russell" scenes, implying that he won't make it to the end. And he's also gotten constant "I hate this guy" stuff from the jury, implying that he won't win a jury vote. He's got plenty of doubt and it's not like he's a lock if he makes it to the end, so you can't use that argument to eliminate him, gr. By 'obvious', KP, in this context, I meant, 'in-your-face' and utterly dominant. Everyone is acutely aware that it's Russell's season, one way or the other. DK, perhaps Russell is, as you say, his own distraction. However, that is not what Edgic's philosophy is founded upon. If he wins, it will require more serious re-thinking than has ever been required in Edgic..
darknight		#4789	[-]
Posts: 21 (12/13/09 04:19 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	getting real wrote: JPOz wrote: darknight wrote: Since Blake mentioned 'patterns', well i have watched all past 18 seasons of Survivor more than once and no winner has ever talked up their rivals or spoken about having thoughts of wanting to leave the game. No to be argumentative, or pedantic, but Jenna M. almost quit game near the end. Think it was before F4 IC. It was at F5 (after Christy left), and the implication was that she did it to appear weak, thereby convincing the men to take her to F4 instead of Heidi. Thats correct. Jusr rewatched that episode and Jenna claims she is sick and weak and feeling helpless but never actually she she wanted to go home. Heidi says she is the mastermind and played hard and will give the guys a run for their money....so they vote out Heidi! Next episode...'sick' and 'weak' Jenna wins Immunity!!
MasterDarkNinja		#4790	[-]
Posts: 2950 (12/13/09 09:01 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only 15 letter word that can be spelled without repeating a letter is 'uncopyrightable'! Remove this ad darknight wrote: 7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. So looking at the current members of the jury who has said anything meaningful or insightful about Mick? What are his Jury connections? The last two boots have made insightful and potentially misleading comments about Russell. Dave "He was born to play this game" and Monica saying to Russell "I'm voting based on need". Both could yet vote for Russell. Just to be fair I'd like to point out that usually no one person who faces the jury (winner or loser) has ties with everyone in the jury to explain all the votes. Still, even with that in mind Mick still only really has Foa Foa ties, nothing with Gelu. I mean lets look at who has ties with the jury members. -Erik: Didn't really interact with any Foa Foa, but was shown cheering when Russell played the HII and idoled Kelly. -Kelly: Didn't really interact with any Foa Foa, though the editing told us that Natalie was bonding with the Gelu women, which would include Kelly. -Laura: We know she hates Russell, she was close enough to Natalie to think Natalie might vote out Russell the round where Kelly went home. I can't really think of any ties she has to Mick or Jaison, though Jaison was looking for the idol with her nearby, but that's not a jury tie. -John: Was willing to work with Russell early on, got back stabbed by Russell when he finally left. In the merge episode we saw Jaison bonding with him a bit, and that John told him that he went to engineering school, still that's not much. I honestly can't remember Natalie/Mick interacting with John, or John talking about any of them. -Dave: He congratulated Russell on the Kelly blindside, and said in his final words that Russell outplayed them and was born to play the game. He shared a reward with Natalie, but I don't think that really counts as a jury connection, I can't think of any ties or scenes interacting with Mick or Jaison -Monica: Like the other two girls she has ties to Natalie from the hints about Natalie bonding with the Gelu women. We saw her flat out tell Russell she wouldn't vote for him, though we also saw Russell say that had they been on the same tribe they could have been a good team. Jaison was shown basically campaigning for Monica & Brett's jury votes this episode. I can't think of any Mick/Monica interactions/ties. So to add up those connections I get these totals for Foa Foa Jaison: 2/6 Mick: 0/6 Natalie: 3/6 Russell: 5/6 Let me just say again you don't have to have ties with almost everyone on the jury if you win, but you should certainly have some with some of the people, so Natalie's number of ties is fine, and Jaison's are probably fine as well considering his interaction with Brett & Foa Foa, though he doesn't have ties with Shambo. Unless I'm missing a jury connectlion moment (possible, I almost forgot Jaison's connection with John) it seems that Mick is the only one who so far fails Guideline #7 on jury ties, he lacks them with every single member of Gelu on the jury. It does look like he'll get some kind of intereaction/ties to Brett next episode based on the promo, but 1/7 isn't too good either, and he lacks any real ties to Shambo to, but he does have ties to Foa Foa.
KMInfinity		#4791	[-]
Posts: 48 (12/13/09 09:17 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Bowie wrote: I think there's one mistake everyone here has succumbed to: thinking that the editors want to make us care about the winner. As long as Russell makes the final episode (which with his hidden immunity idol next week is a statistical certainty), I don't think they care how they've edited the winner. They've tried to edit a STAR in Russell (because let's face it, he deserved it), and they'll brush over the winner at the reunion to focus on Russell. We don't need to care about the winner. We've been manipulated to care about Russell's story and his fate, and so the season is a success regardless of the winner. The fact that edgic guidelines don't support any contestant should tell you that Russell's rise and fall is more important to the editors this season than the winner is (of course, unless Russell is the winner). We've been manipulated to care about Russell's story and his fate... (edited to remove spoiler)--sorry..... Last Edited By: KMInfinity 12/13/09 02:31 PM. Edited 1 times.
MasterDarkNinja		#4792	[-]
Posts: 2951 (12/13/09 10:24 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	You ought to put that in spoiler tags KMInfinity. Spoiler [+] We can discuss the S20 cast and how that'll effect edgic after S19 is over. I know a lot of people don't mind just hearing who's on a season with returning players, but there's some in edgic who are already planning to leave Sucks after S19 is over from how widespread S20 spoilers are becoming outside of the spoiler forum. I don't want even a hint of how well/poorly people do on S20.
darknight		#4793	[-]
Posts: 22 (12/13/09 12:04 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	MasterDarkNinja wrote: darknight wrote: 7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. So looking at the current members of the jury who has said anything meaningful or insightful about Mick? What are his Jury connections? The last two boots have made insightful and potentially misleading comments about Russell. Dave "He was born to play this game" and Monica saying to Russell "I'm voting based on need". Both could yet vote for Russell. Just to be fair I'd like to point out that usually no one person who faces the jury (winner or loser) has ties with everyone in the jury to explain all the votes. Still, even with that in mind Mick still only really has Foa Foa ties, nothing with Gelu. I mean lets look at who has ties with the jury members. -Erik: Didn't really interact with any Foa Foa, but was shown cheering when Russell played the HII and idoled Kelly. -Kelly: Didn't really interact with any Foa Foa, though the editing told us that Natalie was bonding with the Gelu women, which would include Kelly. -Laura: We know she hates Russell, she was close enough to Natalie to think Natalie might vote out Russell the round where Kelly went home. I can't really think of any ties she has to Mick or Jaison, though Jaison was looking for the idol with her nearby, but that's not a jury tie. -John: Was willing to work with Russell early on, got back stabbed by Russell when he finally left. In the merge episode we saw Jaison bonding with him a bit, and that John told him that he went to engineering school, still that's not much. I honestly can't remember Natalie/Mick interacting with John, or John talking about any of them. -Dave: He congratulated Russell on the Kelly blindside, and said in his final words that Russell outplayed them and was born to play the game. He shared a reward with Natalie, but I don't think that really counts as a jury connection, I can't think of any ties or scenes interacting with Mick or Jaison -Monica: Like the other two girls she has ties to Natalie from the hints about Natalie bonding with the Gelu women. We saw her flat out tell Russell she wouldn't vote for him, though we also saw Russell say that had they been on the same tribe they could have been a good team. Jaison was shown basically campaigning for Monica & Brett's jury votes this episode. I can't think of any Mick/Monica interactions/ties. So to add up those connections I get these totals for Foa Foa Jaison: 2/6 Mick: 0/6 Natalie: 3/6 Russell: 5/6 Let me just say again you don't have to have ties with almost everyone on the jury if you win, but you should certainly have some with some of the people, so Natalie's number of ties is fine, and Jaison's are probably fine as well considering his interaction with Brett & Foa Foa, though he doesn't have ties with Shambo. Unless I'm missing a jury connectlion moment (possible, I almost forgot Jaison's connection with John) it seems that Mick is the only one who so far fails Guideline #7 on jury ties, he lacks them with every single member of Gelu on the jury. It does look like he'll get some kind of intereaction/ties to Brett next episode based on the promo, but 1/7 isn't too good either, and he lacks any real ties to Shambo to, but he does have ties to Foa Foa. MDN, great post and the numbers do not look good for Mick. He is 0 for 6 so far. Terrible numbers indeed though Monica did interact with Mick when she and Brett tried to get him to flip and did say to him he was likeable character so maybe could give him a jury connection there maybe. Also guildeline 7) states comments/insights and not just interations....so Natalie had comments from Laura but none from the other girls so i would not add Monica or Kelly automatically just by association as no direct comments or insight from them about Natalie. John really didnt make any comments or have any insight about Jaison so i can't really say John and Jaison have any jury connections just based on talking about grad school. Finally, in the Kelly boot episode she had a confessional about Russell being the most conniving player on the island and how he needed to go but Shambo was protecting him but they didnt need Shambo's vote to get rid of him. So my numbers are: Jaison: 1/6 - Monica Mick: 1/6 - Monica Natalie: 1/6 - Laura Russell: 6/6 - Monica, Dave, Kelly, Laura, John, Erik. Last Edited By: darknight 12/13/09 12:28 PM. Edited 3 times.
JaimeCat22		#4794	[-]
Posts: 180 (12/13/09 12:05 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	getting real wrote: That is why, Edgic will be fine no matter who wins, unless it happens to be Russell or a Galuan. Considering edgic has failed to pick 3 of the past 4 winners (and 4 out of 5 if Mick doesn't win), I'd hardly say edgic is "fine". More like it's in need of some serious fine-tuning.
SFC		#4795	[-]
Posts: 855 (12/13/09 12:18 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	X We always say we need to redo the guidelines, but every season they go unchanged.
Katy Carney		#4796	[-]
Posts: 9629 (12/13/09 12:21 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Kitty Pryde1 wrote: He's got plenty of doubt and it's not like he's a lock if he makes it to the end, so you can't use that argument to eliminate him, gr. He has been lately. Especially in this last episode, the constant "russell would beat anyone in the end" stuff makes me wary of his chances.
MasterDarkNinja		#4797	[-]
Posts: 2952 (12/13/09 12:41 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	darknight wrote: MDN, great post and the numbers do not look good for Mick. He is 0 for 6 so far. Terrible numbers indeed though Monica did interact with Mick when she and Brett tried to get him to flip and did say to him he was likeable character so maybe could give him a jury connection there maybe. Also guildeline 7) states comments/insights and not just interations....so Natalie had comments from Laura but none from the other girls so i would not add Monica or Kelly automatically just by association as no direct comments or insight from them about Natalie. John really didnt make any comments or have any insight about Jaison so i can't really say John and Jaison have any jury connections just based on talking about grad school. Finally, in the Kelly boot episode she had a confessional about Russell being the most conniving player on the island and how he needed to go but Shambo was protecting him but they didnt need Shambo's vote to get rid of him. So my numbers are: Jaison: 1/6 - Monica Mick: 1/6 - Monica Natalie: 1/6 - Laura Russell: 6/6 - Monica, Dave, Kelly, Laura, John, Erik. Yeah I'll have to agree with you that some of my jury connections seem very flimsy, like Jaison and John talking in the merge episode. With Kelly as a a jury connection to Natalie (and Monica) I included that because Jeff specifically said in one of the episode recaps that Natalie was getting close (I think his word may have been 'tight') with the Gelu women. We've also seen the Gelu women plotting against Foa Foa/Russell while Natalie is right next to them (such as merge episode #2 when Kelly went home, Natalie was shown lying down in the shelter with Laura and one of the other Gelu women while Laura said that Russell was screwed for playing his HII), doesn't that say that they feel comfortable around Natalie to you? So with your adjustments, but readding the Natalie connections we'd get this. Jaison: 1/6 Mick: 1/6 Natalie: 3/6 Russell: 6/6
panurge46		#4798	[-]
Posts: 1583 (12/13/09 12:45 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I enjoyed that post with your verdicts, Blake.
darknight		#4799	[-]
Posts: 23 (12/13/09 12:53 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	MasterDarkNinja wrote: darknight wrote: MDN, great post and the numbers do not look good for Mick. He is 0 for 6 so far. Terrible numbers indeed though Monica did interact with Mick when she and Brett tried to get him to flip and did say to him he was likeable character so maybe could give him a jury connection there maybe. Also guildeline 7) states comments/insights and not just interations....so Natalie had comments from Laura but none from the other girls so i would not add Monica or Kelly automatically just by association as no direct comments or insight from them about Natalie. John really didnt make any comments or have any insight about Jaison so i can't really say John and Jaison have any jury connections just based on talking about grad school. Finally, in the Kelly boot episode she had a confessional about Russell being the most conniving player on the island and how he needed to go but Shambo was protecting him but they didnt need Shambo's vote to get rid of him. So my numbers are: Jaison: 1/6 - Monica Mick: 1/6 - Monica Natalie: 1/6 - Laura Russell: 6/6 - Monica, Dave, Kelly, Laura, John, Erik. Yeah I'll have to agree with you that some of my jury connections seem very flimsy, like Jaison and John talking in the merge episode. With Kelly as a a jury connection to Natalie (and Monica) I included that because Jeff specifically said in one of the episode recaps that Natalie was getting close (I think his word may have been 'tight') with the Gelu women. We've also seen the Gelu women plotting against Foa Foa/Russell while Natalie is right next to them (such as merge episode #2 when Kelly went home, Natalie was shown lying down in the shelter with Laura and one of the other Gelu women while Laura said that Russell was screwed for playing his HII), doesn't that say that they feel comfortable around Natalie to you? So with your adjustments, but readding the Natalie connections we'd get this. Jaison: 1/6 Mick: 1/6 Natalie: 3/6 Russell: 6/6 I can't argue with that and fits with what i believe will be a Russ/Nat 1st/2nd.
astroline		#4800	[-]
Posts: 2912 (12/13/09 01:10 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only 15 letter word that can be spelled without repeating a letter is 'uncopyrightable'! Remove this ad I completely agree. Earlier on in the season, most notably after Episode 4, I was convinced that Natalie beat out Russell in the finals but neither of them won (that's around when Liz dropped off as my pick and Mick replaced her for Episodes 4 & 5), but now since Episode 6 when I hopped on as my #1 pick being Russell, it makes sense that Russell would win and Natalie would instead come in 2nd, proving his theories about her wrong to an extent but still ultimately having the last laugh. Whoever comes in 3rd is completely irrelevant, because the main suspense would between Russell's horrible social game but amazing strategy and determination to do whatever he had to do to win, and Natalie's great social game and mostly coattail riding antics but still earning some respect by pulling off a couple good moves. I would not be surprised if the vote was 5-4-0, with Russell as the 5, Natalie as the 4, and whoever else with the 0. Let's not forget that Stephen got a great edit last season and was Edgic's majority pick, yet he received 0 votes at FTC. Same with Amanda, even when she received just 1 vote in China (with even UTRN Courtney beating her), she still got a good edit that Edgic harped over. I really would not be surprised if Mick fit the same exact role. Decent MOR edit, top Edgic winner pick, but when it comes time to FTC, he just can't compare with the people sitting next to him. He had a chance to make a big move last episode and he blew it. The only people out of the final 6 that have made big moves in the game are Russell, Natalie and Shambo. Those are the ones we can see talking to the jury. Like I said weeks ago, what would Mick say when he's facing the jury? We didn't know then and we still don't know now. Russell would talk about the idols, his lies, his relationships (or lack of) with everyone, how he controlled his tribe and what he did to get there. We know all of that, we've seen it. Natalie would talk about riding coattails, playing a quiet game but making big moves when she needed to, having good relationships with people and learning how to survive in the wilderness and proving some stereotypes wrong. Once again, we know all of that, we've seen it. So what 4 or 5 things similar to Russell & Natalie would someone like Mick or Jaison have to tell the jury, that we've seen (in regular episodes, not recaps) that show who they are, what they've done to get there, and what strategies they set in motion to be deserving? In the off-chance that Russell AND Natalie both don't win in the F3 together, it's because the jury would vote bitterly against Russell and then also against Natalie just by her big association with Russell as well. But I still believe that if Russell doesn't win, then it's the season of why Russell lost and the only person who has enough substance in their edit (and I even just gave her another INV) would be Natalie. But this is only if Russell doesn't win. And I still think he does.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)