S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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BlakeB717		#4821	[-]
Posts: 2590 (12/13/09 07:11 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I know it sounds like I'm in denial, but I'm not. Remove this ad The Y axis is based on rating + visibility divided by 2. OTT=5, MOR=4, CP=3, UTR=2, INV=1... and then the visibility. I went back to each "tally", so the numbers are exact with each of our votes. It took me so long to make that
MasterDarkNinja		#4822	[-]
Posts: 2954 (12/13/09 08:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: I guess that's a matter of opinion. I think there is only one "type" of winner edit--a winner edit. :) Whether they're UTR, MOR, or CP overall, they follow a large chunk of the guidelines. The trick then, after eliminating those who break too many rules, is to look at the content and see if they're fitting the winner mold. You win some you lose some. We aren't going to be punished for getting it wrong. Edgic is for fun. Ok, then take a look at which winners edgic has gotten right and which winners edgic has gotten wrong and tell me there isn't a problem with spotting winners who aren't CP overall. Right -Parvati (CP overall) -Earl (CP overall) -Yul (CP overall, notably he beat out Ozzy who was more MORish overall) -Aras (CP overall) -Tom (CP overall) -Sandra (CP overall) Wrong -Bob (UTR overall, OTT early on when not UTR) -JT (CP overall, but he was more MORish compared to CP Stephen) -Todd (CP overall, was thought to be too visible/too much of a distraction to win) -Danni (UTR overall, all season long edgic CPish distractions, first Gary, then Rafe and Steph) -Chris (CP overall, was thought to be too UTR/ignored in the first half of the season to win) I think we got it wrong, but I'm not 100% certain -Amber (MOR overall, I can't remember much about this season because I wasn't around edgic or sucks then) So the last 12 seasons of edgic we've gotten the winner right 6 times, and all of them were CPish winners overall, edgic has never gotten the winner right in a season with a MORish overall winner, or an UTRish overall winner. The CPish winners who edgic failed to catch we failed to watch for one of two reasons. 1) Other CPish (or even more CPish then the winner) characters became edgic's pick instead, we in effect fell for a CPish distraction. 2) Being at the extreme end of visibility at some part of the season, either being too visible to the point of looking like a distraction, or being too UTR and quiet for too long and written off as too ignored to win. So yeah, it's clear that edgic's problem is that it assumes there's one type of winner all the time, when in reality there's other types of winners that edgic often misses.
JaimeCat22		#4823	[-]
Posts: 190 (12/13/09 08:06 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Todd was the one edgic really dropped the ball on. Just because people didn't want another CP male winner they stubbornly refused to pick him. It would have been a great edgic victory too, since the fake "Amanda Wins" spoiler was floating around.
McPhever224		#4824	[-]
Posts: 473 (12/13/09 08:08 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	JaimeCat22 wrote: Todd was the one edgic really dropped the ball on. Just because people didn't want another CP male winner they stubbornly refused to pick him. It would have been a great edgic victory too, since the fake "Amanda Wins" spoiler was floating around. I still think Peih-Gee was probably the best edgic pick.
Jedijake		#4825	[-]
Posts: 6023 (12/13/09 08:35 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Todd was the one edgic really dropped the ball on. Just because people didn't want another CP male winner they stubbornly refused to pick him. It would have been a great edgic victory too, since the fake "Amanda Wins" spoiler was floating around. Who actually dropped the ball? Who refused to pick Todd? The people who actually fell for that ridiculous Amanda rumor? It wasn't a failure of Edgic but a failure of a few foolish people.
astroline		#4826	[-]
Posts: 2920 (12/13/09 08:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	JaimeCat22 wrote: Todd was the one edgic really dropped the ball on. Just because people didn't want another CP male winner they stubbornly refused to pick him. It would have been a great edgic victory too, since the fake "Amanda Wins" spoiler was floating around. You say this like you were actually here, posting and trying to help us out. You weren't. You only starting posting this season, all your posts have been less than a paragraph (usually just a couple sentences) criticizing us and how stupid we are for the mistakes we make, yet you don't actually contribute or help with any insight, ratings, patterns, long analysis'. Say whatever you want but I know your opinion doesn't mean shit around here until you stop being a troll and actually start contributing.
getting real		#4827	[-]
Posts: 1973 (12/13/09 08:46 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'm not sure about those graphs as they relate to edgic, but they do concern me if they're about global warming. Just put them down as an Inconvenient Truth. I can see why people say that a Jaison/Mick/Nat win would be far more in keeping with edgic than Russell. Not a lot of people are saying that, to be fair. Not yet, anyway. But, who knows, they just might come around eventually. Who actually dropped the ball? Who refused to pick Todd? The people who actually fell for that ridiculous Amanda rumor? It wasn't a failure of Edgic but a failure of a few foolish people. Exactly. Edgic is not a monolith. Nor is it a closed system. People are free to make up their own mind. ETA: Settle, Astro... Just when this place was becoming a tad more more civil...
BlakeB717		#4828	[-]
Posts: 2591 (12/13/09 08:50 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	On those we got wrong: -Chris wasn't the pick because of our "complex tribe" theory guideline which has subsequently been thrown out. -Amber was believed to be the 2nd place loser. Everyone was sure she made the finals, but for some reason doubted her win. I believe Rupert was the pick (lol), with some stray Jenna L supporters. -Todd shouldn't have happened. He was Edgic's pick until his obscene visibility in Episode 6. People mistakenly (this include me) had the stigma that it was the season of how he lost, and looked for a Danni winner. -JT shouldn't have happened. Based on my edgic, JT got MORs where he definitely was CP, and Stephen got CPs where he definitely was MOR.. I think some people were just so sure it was him, they threw in CPs at any significant comment. Same thing with Parvati. I had her as my pick around Episode 5 onwards, but she got more CPs in the merge than she deserved. I really felt she was MOR overall. -After 5 seasons in a row (that's over 2 years) of CP-esque winners, we get someone whose strategy was basically no strategy at all. Bob was totally unlucky for us. He didn't break too many rules except his tone was so positive (but it was also a good vs evil theme dubbed by Probst... so it was to be expected). We went with the CP people like Kenny and Marcus, but totally ignored (especially me, I'm guilty) major warning signs of "perfection" and "confidence". It was the anti-season, really. I also think Bob got way too many OTTs where he was MOR. Once again, the stigma of Bob being out loveable OTTP made people give him that rating anytime he did something nice, even when it wasn't a truly OTT edit. Same thing happened after the merge, when Bob was CP, people were reluctant because he was a traditionally un-CP character prior. (I had Bob as, if you take away the tone, MOR UTR MOR UTR UTR UTR OTT UTR CP MOR CP CP CP, which is pretty much in line with Parv and Chris' trend). The main problem with Edgic that I see is the ratings we give each episode--the most imporatnt part of edgic. When we think someone can't win, we don't really give the most accurate rating/thought to it because we've made up our minds. It's only human to discount things to save us some time, but had we given some edits more thought, we wouldn't spew out ratings like "CP" to people we think are CP winners, or "OTTP" to people we think are simply heros. We also can't make assuptions. We can't assume that no matter what the winner always will come from the complex tribe (this isn't relevant to today's edgic, but you know what I mean). We can't assume that Edgic "won't apply" this season, even when there are valid contenders still. We can't assume that someone is going to be our 2nd place loser ala Stephenie 2.0. We can't assume someone is going to lose the jury vote because they're pissing people off. Eliza voting for Parvati? Ami voting for Twila? The post-merge is meant to throw us off always, because we're getting closer to the end game. Every episode that goes by, the more deceiving it is because we're that much closer to the finale where they want us to be a little surprised, which is why the earlier episodes have much more weight, to me. Take out assumptions and stigmas, look at edgic episode by episode, and hope for the best. No changes needed, IMHO. Last Edited By: BlakeB717 12/13/09 08:52 PM. Edited 1 times.
JaimeCat22		#4829	[-]
Posts: 193 (12/13/09 08:55 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	astroline wrote: You only starting posting this season. False. Much like everything else that you post. I've been here longer than most.
Riliss		#4830	[-]
Posts: 6433 (12/13/09 09:53 PM) Ugly on the inside Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I know it sounds like I'm in denial, but I'm not. Remove this ad Season 9 was the last season I didn't have spoilers for, and I absolutely called Chris winning throughout that season's edgic.
JaimeCat22		#4831	[-]
Posts: 198 (12/13/09 09:57 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The big tipoff that Chris won was the opening ceremony in the premiere episode. That was a clear giveaway that a man would win that season. If a woman won, the ceremony probably would have been edited out of the episode. Or at least it would have been edited differently. And among the men, Chris had the best edit. That was one season where themes played a big part.
TheWizard		#4832	[-]
Posts: 329 (12/13/09 10:23 PM) Avocado Assassin Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: On those we got wrong: -Chris wasn't the pick because of our "complex tribe" theory guideline which has subsequently been thrown out. -Amber was believed to be the 2nd place loser. Everyone was sure she made the finals, but for some reason doubted her win. I believe Rupert was the pick (lol), with some stray Jenna L supporters. -Todd shouldn't have happened. He was Edgic's pick until his obscene visibility in Episode 6. People mistakenly (this include me) had the stigma that it was the season of how he lost, and looked for a Danni winner. -JT shouldn't have happened. Based on my edgic, JT got MORs where he definitely was CP, and Stephen got CPs where he definitely was MOR.. I think some people were just so sure it was him, they threw in CPs at any significant comment. Same thing with Parvati. I had her as my pick around Episode 5 onwards, but she got more CPs in the merge than she deserved. I really felt she was MOR overall. -After 5 seasons in a row (that's over 2 years) of CP-esque winners, we get someone whose strategy was basically no strategy at all. Bob was totally unlucky for us. He didn't break too many rules except his tone was so positive (but it was also a good vs evil theme dubbed by Probst... so it was to be expected). We went with the CP people like Kenny and Marcus, but totally ignored (especially me, I'm guilty) major warning signs of "perfection" and "confidence". It was the anti-season, really. I also think Bob got way too many OTTs where he was MOR. Once again, the stigma of Bob being out loveable OTTP made people give him that rating anytime he did something nice, even when it wasn't a truly OTT edit. Same thing happened after the merge, when Bob was CP, people were reluctant because he was a traditionally un-CP character prior. (I had Bob as, if you take away the tone, MOR UTR MOR UTR UTR UTR OTT UTR CP MOR CP CP CP, which is pretty much in line with Parv and Chris' trend). The main problem with Edgic that I see is the ratings we give each episode--the most imporatnt part of edgic. When we think someone can't win, we don't really give the most accurate rating/thought to it because we've made up our minds. It's only human to discount things to save us some time, but had we given some edits more thought, we wouldn't spew out ratings like "CP" to people we think are CP winners, or "OTTP" to people we think are simply heros. We also can't make assuptions. We can't assume that no matter what the winner always will come from the complex tribe (this isn't relevant to today's edgic, but you know what I mean). We can't assume that Edgic "won't apply" this season, even when there are valid contenders still. We can't assume that someone is going to be our 2nd place loser ala Stephenie 2.0. We can't assume someone is going to lose the jury vote because they're pissing people off. Eliza voting for Parvati? Ami voting for Twila? The post-merge is meant to throw us off always, because we're getting closer to the end game. Every episode that goes by, the more deceiving it is because we're that much closer to the finale where they want us to be a little surprised, which is why the earlier episodes have much more weight, to me. Take out assumptions and stigmas, look at edgic episode by episode, and hope for the best. No changes needed, IMHO. Maybe I'm just very complex.
BlakeB717		#4833	[-]
Posts: 2593 (12/13/09 10:32 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Maybe I'm just very complex. Well that's what I'm trying to say. Something I pressed a lot when I was supporting JT was that the editors are using your confessionals to tell a story. Based on the way you speak, you articulated situations well without being confusing/ramble-y, so naturally the editors were going to use a lot of your confessionals because they worked and saved them a lot of time. The issue was that although JT maybe wasn't the most analytical thinker, his edit was more personal and had more dimensions rather than yours which seemed strictly resigned to your confessionals and the "growing as a person" arc. The editors didn't have to do very much cutting and pasting with your confessionals. Good on you, but bad for edgic. It made things very tricky for us :)
getting real		#4834	[-]
Posts: 1974 (12/13/09 10:49 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The Warrior Wizard wrote: Maybe I'm just very complex. Yes. You are/were. You were/are also the Wizard rather than the Warrior. That was the only thing the Coach was edited as getting right for the entire season. Sadly, it was enough. Last Edited By: getting real 12/14/09 01:43 AM. Edited 2 times.
AveryC		#4835	[-]
Posts: 121 (12/14/09 01:53 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I don't think Natalie wins or anything, but I've noticed something that might be of use later on. The idea that the endgamers must be developed was a universial thought early on, even if we don't see them in the front we usually get some kind of gist of who they are. Butch and Darrah were the first to put this idea to waste, but they had at least something every episode. Then Palau came along: Jenn- 0/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 1 TOTAL= 13 AVERAGE= 0.93 Ouch. But she came 4th, and edgic correctly eliminated her early. Poor Jenn was followed by less extreme Lydia, and it appeared that deeply UTR characters could only go as far as fourth. Then in Cook Islands: Becky- 0/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 5 TOTAL= 14 AVERAGE= 1.00 Because Becky got the same as Jenn, posters in Edgic completely ruled her out as making the finals. It was deduced that Sundra would be the Final Tribal loser of the two while Becky would be the token 4th place invisible. She suprised Edgic by coming third yet earned zero votes. Cassandra followed this in the next season, and Edgic concluded on trends that people who are ignored and make the Final Day are clear zero vote getters. Then came Gabon: Susie- 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 8/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 2/ 10/ TOTAL= 25 AVERAGE= 1.92 Despite finishing in a strong 2nd place by a single vote, Susie was edited horribly. Her finish was probably more of a shock than Bob's was. Edgic had her as a likely fourth placer, but she got further. To compare with Natalie: Natalie- 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 0 TOTAL= 9 AVERAGE= 0.75 She's identical to them. She's got the INV female edit that has suprised Edgic by crossing from 4th, to 3rd and finally to 2nd place. I don't think she'll do it and it'll be actually Jaison, but the evolution of that kind of edit to 1st wouldn't suprise me. Edgic recognised she'll get to this point based on these prior women after all. If it's not her some poor female will likely get the INV edit and win someday. Last Edited By: AveryC 12/14/09 01:57 AM. Edited 1 times.
AndreSurvivor		#4836	[-]
Posts: 646 (12/14/09 08:44 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: -Todd shouldn't have happened. He was Edgic's pick until his obscene visibility in Episode 6. People mistakenly (this include me) had the stigma that it was the season of how he lost, and looked for a Danni winner. -JT shouldn't have happened. Based on my edgic, JT got MORs where he definitely was CP, and Stephen got CPs where he definitely was MOR.. I think some people were just so sure it was him, they threw in CPs at any significant comment. Same thing with Parvati. I had her as my pick around Episode 5 onwards, but she got more CPs in the merge than she deserved. I really felt she was MOR overall. China was my first season after a small break from the show, and Todd was my #1 winner pick. I was spoiler-free, and started posting here. Once I stumbled on the "Amanda wins!!!" spoilers, it seemed immediately fake because her winning made no sense whatsoever. We didn't know who she was. It was a case of overthinking the whole thing. With J.T./Stephen, they were so close on my list from the first episode that I made the choice based on the fact I loved Stephen so much. My mistake, but it wasn't a horrible choice.
9RedWing19		#4837	[-]
Posts: 2702 (12/14/09 08:47 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	TheWizard wrote: Maybe I'm just very complex. Or that is how the editors suckered us into not realizing that the vote was going to be unanimous. I don't think that was an outcome that anyone predicted (even those that predicted a JT win). For that, the editors deserve credit (and those of us here that were on the Stephen train have to take our lumps).
BlakeB717		#4838	[-]
Posts: 2596 (12/14/09 08:52 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	AndreSurvivor wrote: BlakeB717 wrote: -Todd shouldn't have happened. He was Edgic's pick until his obscene visibility in Episode 6. People mistakenly (this include me) had the stigma that it was the season of how he lost, and looked for a Danni winner. -JT shouldn't have happened. Based on my edgic, JT got MORs where he definitely was CP, and Stephen got CPs where he definitely was MOR.. I think some people were just so sure it was him, they threw in CPs at any significant comment. Same thing with Parvati. I had her as my pick around Episode 5 onwards, but she got more CPs in the merge than she deserved. I really felt she was MOR overall. China was my first season after a small break from the show, and Todd was my #1 winner pick. I was spoiler-free, and started posting here. Once I stumbled on the "Amanda wins!!!" spoilers, it seemed immediately fake because her winning made no sense whatsoever. We didn't know who she was. It was a case of overthinking the whole thing. With J.T./Stephen, they were so close on my list from the first episode that I made the choice based on the fact I loved Stephen so much. My mistake, but it wasn't a horrible choice. Yeah, last season a LOT of people who had Stephen as their pick were like "it's 50/50", as well as some JT supporters, so it was pretty close. I wouldn't consider last season a failure at all for those who picked Stephen. Hey, I give credit to the Amanda supporters. I picked Peih-Gee, Lol.
scepticA		#4839	[-]
Posts: 1851 (12/14/09 10:19 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Heck, I'm even more pathetic. I picked Amanda and wasn't even spoiled.
unduli clone		#4840	[-]
Posts: 8018 (12/14/09 10:56 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I know it sounds like I'm in denial, but I'm not. Remove this ad I had picked Todd, but was spoiled on the F3 so didn't ever say it. I still think that Amanda being picked that season is one of the biggest Edgic embarrassments and pretty much rode on the fact that we were buying into the theory that a woman had to win, since the past three winners were male. In regards to this season, I just see it as a repeat of last season - it was either Stephen or JT, and the one thing that really set them apart was their premiere episode. I think that Mick and Jaison have similar edits; though Jaison's is better overall, Mick's premiere episode blew his out of the water and that's pretty much why I support him.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)