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BlakeB717 wrote:

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On those we got wrong:

-Chris wasn't the pick because of our "complex tribe" theory guideline which has subsequently been thrown out.

-Todd shouldn't have happened. He was Edgic's pick until his obscene visibility in Episode 6. People mistakenly (this include me) had the stigma that it was the season of how he lost, and looked for a Danni winner.

The main problem with Edgic that I see is the ratings we give each episode--the most imporatnt part of edgic. When we think someone can't win, we don't really give the most accurate rating/thought to it because we've made up our minds. It's only human to discount things to save us some time, but had we given some edits more thought, we wouldn't spew out ratings like "CP" to people we think are CP winners, or "OTTP" to people we think are simply heros.

We also can't make assuptions. We can't assume that no matter what the winner always will come from the complex tribe (this isn't relevant to today's edgic, but you know what I mean). We can't assume that Edgic "won't apply" this season, even when there are valid contenders still. We can't assume that someone is going to be our 2nd place loser ala Stephenie 2.0. We can't assume someone is going to lose the jury vote because they're pissing people off. Eliza voting for Parvati? Ami voting for Twila? The post-merge is meant to throw us off always, because we're getting closer to the end game. Every episode that goes by, the more deceiving it is because we're that much closer to the finale where they want us to be a little surprised, which is why the earlier episodes have much more weight, to me.

Take out assumptions and stigmas, look at edgic episode by episode, and hope for the best. No changes needed, IMHO.

You're right about Chris and the complex tribe rule, there's definitely something to being on the right/wrong tribe to win, but complexity wasn't it, I mean look at how we eliminated all of Gelu because they were shown as irrelevant early on.The 'right' tribe is often more about tone/competence/who's shown as lazy. Not all of them are silver bullets (Casaya was quite N, but beat out P La Mina), but a lot of them together signals doom for the tribe even if they control the merge (like Fang, it was beat over our heads they were a bunch of N morons every single freaking episode, they may have surprised us like Casaya by taking control of the game in the merge, but in the end they let someone from the other tribe slip by and win).

I've got to disagree with you on people thinking it was the season of how Todd lost in S15. I don't recall anyone mentioning that during the season, I just recall people dumping Todd because he looked too much like a distraction to win, and that after his 5+ visibility in episode #6 we looked at a lot of his strategy scenes like his finding the HII as a distraction to someone else. But yeah, in hindsight the editors seemed to decide to really highlight Todd's big move that episode and give him 5+ visibility, that extreme visibility episode really helped start to throw us off.

On ratings given out I have to somewhat disagree, yes at times we do seem to be giving people reflective ratings, like a N to the season's big villain, it's happened countless seasons, so have giving OTT's and CP's when they really aren't deserved to characters who get them so often. I mean take a look at Earl, he got a CP in almost every single episode, yet looking at my old Fiji edgic charat I only ever gave Earl a CP 5 times, not 11. This works for and against us for winners, if we think someone wins it can become a self fulfilling prophecy in the ratings in a way.

I must disagree with you about not being able to make assumptions. The fact is we CAN make some assumptions, or a better word for it, educated guesses, based on the edit. Take S11, it should have been dead obvious to us by the middle of the season that Stephenie was the F2 loser, meaning she couldn't win, why else would they turn a PP character into a M leaning N character? It is possible to see when a season's edit is all about 'Why X Lost'/'Why X Won' (though at times it's obviously just 'Why X Lost'), when we see that we should take that into account, that the winner's edit might suffer as a result. That's using logic and common sense to interpret the edit. We can't make assumptions that edgic should be thrown out the window entirely of course, but we should be open for the possibility that whoever wins will seem to bend some of the edgic guidelines a bit, or maybe even seem to violate one of them, but only if their edit content is good enough to make up for it. Edgic can't be all about the numbers, otherwise S12 Nick would have looked like a great edgic pick, even though he was the most forgettable and boring guy on the whole show.

Oh, and something I've noticed (although I'm not sure it related to Edgic, though it is still editing): the winner is never shown in the pre-show previews. Natalie and Russell were both in the previews.

I'm 99.9% sure that you're wrong about this (I recall reading a list of 3 or 4 winners who were a few seasons ago when I used to venture outside of edgic), but I can't name any winners who were, I don't remember any pre-show previews.