S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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rioothello		#4861	[-]
Posts: 79 (12/14/09 09:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ad freedom fighters united! Remove this ad BlakeB717 wrote: The reason why the over-used "Editors don't follow Edgic" comments don't make sense: Edgic is based on how edtiors edit the winners, not the other way around. 18 seasons now and there are dos and don'ts in winner edits, and both Natalie and Russell meet a whole lot more don'ts. Editors don't ignore winners because a winner who is completely irrelevant does not generate viewers or a sense of credibility for the game. Viewers come in because they respect the game--it's not a popularity contest (although "America's Tribal Council" sure was). Editing is an art. They aren't going to slag off their winner the entire season. Didn't Jeff even say in a blog that there are clues that have significance and clues that try to mislead the audience or something to that effect? The editors are trained professionals. They love their work. They aren't going to shaft their winner like Natalie, or put their winner front-and-centre the entire season. Oh, and something I've noticed (although I'm not sure it related to Edgic, though it is still editing): the winner is never shown in the pre-show previews. Natalie and Russell were both in the previews. And rioothello, my love: Maybe Jeff didn't ask her any TCQ. Maybe she didn't make any confessionals relating to the last 3 episodes. They are at Tribal Council for over an hour. Jeff has to ask everyone something to provide as much useful footage as possible. Also, Eliza confirmed they have multiple confessional sessions every round, so of course in her private interviews each week they are going to ask questions which pertain to what is going on. Who cares if they were shown in the previews? Its not like the editors say "Remember, we can't put our winner in the pre-show previews." Last Edited By: rioothello 12/14/09 09:28 PM. Edited 2 times.
BlakeB717		#4862	[-]
Posts: 2622 (12/14/09 09:30 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I only really started noticing the "trend" of winners not being shown in the pre-show previews starting at S11. Any seasons before that I'm not sure, but I'm positive the winner was never in the commercials (it was the one thing that scared me about Marcus) from Guatemala onwards.
BlakeB717		#4863	[-]
Posts: 2623 (12/14/09 09:36 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Who cares if they were shown in the previews? Its not like the editors say "Remember, we can't put our winner in the pre-show previews." With your philosophy, Edgic is pointless. Edgic follows the editors; editors don't follow edgic. For some reason, you see the latter. When something happens a lot, it's a pattern/trend. That is to say, the editors do things to their winners that are similar. Our goal in Edgic is to use these trends to predict winners. Tomorrow I could die. Next week I could grow wings. This Sunday Natalie might win. The future has an assortment of possibilities, but based on the past, we can rely on the likelihood and security of the future. Perhaps our Edgic present may be too volatile to predict the future. Who knows? But it's been pretty accurate for quite a few years now, and people talk about Edgic all the time (whether they believe it or not). For any of you who have read the book "Pattern Recognition" by William Gibson, you'll know what I'm talking about
fat little fingers		#4864	[-]
Posts: 6382 (12/14/09 09:48 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	For those who might remember a little Africa Edgic. Here's the closing sequence from the opening recap scenes of Ep12. Jeff, "...Russell, driving on cruise control..." Russell, "I can comfortably sit on my throne and watch everybody bicker at each other." Jeff, "He felt so comfortable that he let his guard down and revealed his secret." ..........
9RedWing19		#4865	[-]
Posts: 2703 (12/14/09 09:49 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	MasterDarkNinja wrote: Take S11, it should have been dead obvious to us by the middle of the season that Stephenie was the F2 loser, meaning she couldn't win, why else would they turn a PP character into a M leaning N character? As obvious as Stephen was going to get shut-out? As obvious as Susie would lose by one vote? Steph was not a PP character in Palau, despite the 2 big PP episodes (she had only 2 P episodes in the first 7). As far as a M leaning N character in S11, she ended the season with cumulatively more P votes than N votes, and more P episodes (4) than N episodes (2). For those that pegged her as the F2 loser - congratulations, but it was not the consensus of the Edgic community at that time. And if you make enough predictions, 1 or 2 of them are bound to be right.
chapera rocks		#4866	[-]
Posts: 12230 (12/14/09 09:57 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mick was shown in a preview. As one of the possible "greatest villains ever" though he didn't speak. Meh. Edgic patterns Mick does not follow: 1. Little to no tone. I don't care if you have 5 millions tone ratings on your chart, it could be personal bias. As a whole, Mick has too little tone to win. Every winner has had at least three tone episodes by this point. 2. Merge. So what if it's a 12 person merge? People are ignored in a 12 person merge, yes. People are ignored in a 10 person merge. People are ignored in an 8 person merge. The winner should not be one of those people, and this has held up 17/18 seasons. Not only that, but many people were featured in the merge episode this season, and there was a ridiculous amount devoted to Russell. If Mick won, it would be logical to assume they would cut out even a couple of minutes of the Russell show to put Mick in there. 3. Mick's storyline was never relevant to the game until episode 12. Even UTR winners. Vee's strategy was always articulated, even if it was by other people or at random points (who the hell cares why she voted for Boston Rob? But they gave us an explanation). Amber had a lot of manipulation/story with BRob. Danni was the NuYaxha underdog. Bob was the HII extraordinaire. I guess Bob fits Mick the most out of everyone, but the comparison is weak since Bob had a storyline before episode 12. 4. 3 UTR's after the merge has never happened. 5. Mick's edit does not resemble any winner so far. And I don't want to hear his edit is similar to Ethan, because that's far from the truth. Look at their numbers and ratings and tell me they're similar with a straight face. Ethan had 6 P ratings. Ethan had several CP's, including one to start off the season. Ethan had an OTTP5 to compensate for a UTR merge. Ethan narrated his alliance with the Boran boys, Ethan was the primary commenter on the swap. Ethan had substance to his edit.
astroline		#4867	[-]
Posts: 2927 (12/14/09 10:02 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I look forward to seeing posts next week from winged, deceased Blake! I hope he has visions for our futures.
LKMOSCAR		#4868	[-]
Posts: 8189 (12/14/09 10:05 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	AIGA Brett: MORP2 Dave: MOR2 Jaison: CP3 Monica: CPM4 Mick: CP3 Natalie: UTR1 Russell: CPN5 Shambo: OTTM4
Phoenix1269	Episode 12 Ratings & Close Calls	#4869	[-]
Posts: 768 (12/14/09 11:34 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Overall Rankings MORP2 - Brett Clouser MOR2 - Dave Ball CP3 - Jaison Robinson CP3 - Mick Trimming CP?4 - Monica Padilla UTR1 - Natalie White OTTN5 - Russell Hantz MOR3 - Shannon Waters Episode Rating Averages From most to least INV=1, UTR=2, CP=3, MOR=4, OTT=5 4.31 - Brett Clouser 4.25 - Russell Hantz 4.13 - Shannon Waters 3.75 - Dave Ball 3.38 - Jaison Robinson 3.31 - Monica Padilla 3.00 - Mick Trimming 1.75 - Natalie White Episode Tone Averages From most positive to least positive NN=-2, N=-1, neutral=0, P=1, PP=2 0.938 - Brett Clouser 0.250 - Monica Padilla 0.063 - Jaison Robinson 0.000 - Mick Trimming 0.000 - Natalie White -0.063 - Dave Ball -0.063 - Shannon Waters -0.938 - Russell Hantz Episode Visibility Averages From most to least 4.94 - Russell Hantz 4.06 - Monica Padilla 3.06 - Mick Trimming 3.00 - Jaison Robinson 2.94 - Shannon Waters 2.25 - Dave Ball 2.06 - Brett Clouser 1.06 - Natalie White Close Calls There are no close calls this week Tone Monica Padilla NN (0%), N (18.8%), neutral (12.5%) mixed (25%) , P (43.8%), PP (0%)(note: 4 out of 6 neutral votes were for dynamic) Visibility There are no close calls this week
Phoenix1269	MORDiff and other stats - Episode 12	#4870	[-]
Posts: 769 (12/14/09 11:36 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ad freedom fighters united! Remove this ad MOR differential Sum difference from middle of road for total season 4.59 - Ben Browning 3.06 - Brett Clouser 2.79 - Kelly Sharbaugh 2.75 - Russell Hantz 1.89 - Betsy Bolan 1.89 - Marisa Calihan 1.86 - Shannon Waters 1.74 - Mike Borassi 1.69 - Natalie White 1.40 - John Fincher 1.32 - Laura Morett 1.17 - Yasmin Giles 1.12 - Monica Padilla 1.00 - Dave Ball 0.90 - Jaison Robinson 0.86 - Russell Swan 0.67 - Mick Trimming 0.65 - Ashley Trainer 0.53 - Elizabeth Kim 0.20 - Erik Cardona Current midpoint: 2.20 Shambo is closest @ 1.86 Current median value: 1.36 Natalie at .33 above, Jaison at .46 below Breakdowns Season Rating Averages From most to least (INV=1, UTR=2, CP=3, MOR=4, OTT=5) 4.82 - Ben Browning 4.42 - Mike Borassi 4.20 - Shannon Waters 3.63 - Jaison Robinson 3.58 - Russell Swan 3.51 - Russell Hantz 3.37 - Betsy Bolan 3.28 - Dave Ball 3.26 - Mick Trimming 3.22 - Ashley Trainer 3.11 - Marisa Calihan 3.09 - Yasmin Giles 3.01 - Elizabeth Kim 2.93 - Erik Cardona 2.93 - Monica Padilla 2.72 - Laura Morett 2.59 - Natalie White 2.39 - John Fincher 2.05 - Kelly Sharbaugh 1.81 - Brett Clouser Season Tone Averages From most positive to least (NN=-2, N=-1, neutral=0, P=1, PP=2) 0.974 - Betsy Bolan 0.842 - Marisa Calihan 0.336 - Natalie White 0.157 - Jaison Robinson 0.127 - Elizabeth Kim 0.118 - Mick Trimming 0.085 - Brett Clouser 0.043 - Russell Swan -0.006 - Ashley Trainer -0.033 - Shannon Waters -0.044 - Erik Cardona -0.093 - Kelly Sharbaugh -0.150 - Dave Ball -0.154 - Monica Padilla -0.182 - John Fincher -0.184 - Mike Borassi -0.285 - Laura Morett -0.512 - Yasmin Giles -0.582 - Russell Hantz -1.503 - Ben Browning Season Visibility Averages From most to least 4.65 - Russell Hantz 4.26 - Ben Browning 3.95 - Marisa Calihan 3.62 - Shannon Waters 3.55 - Betsy Bolan 3.42 - Ashley Trainer 3.24 - Russell Swan 3.11 - Jaison Robinson 2.92 - Erik Cardona 2.87 - Mike Borassi 2.71 - Mick Trimming 2.61 - Elizabeth Kim 2.43 - Yasmin Giles 2.43 - Dave Ball 2.39 - John Fincher 2.25 - Laura Morett 2.10 - Monica Padilla 2.05 - Natalie White 1.26 - Kelly Sharbaugh 1.21 - Brett Clouser
Phoenix1269	edgic winners & losers - Episode 12	#4871	[-]
Posts: 770 (12/14/09 11:37 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Edgic Losers Percentage of possible loser votes 100.00% - Brett Clouser 92.86% - Shannon Waters 71.43% - Natalie White 57.14% - Russell Hantz 42.86% - Jaison Robinson 28.57% - Mick Trimming Edgic Winners Percentage of winner votes received 28.57% - Mick Trimming 28.57% - Russell Hantz 21.43% - Jaison Robinson 21.43% - Natalie White 0.00% - Brett Clouser 0.00% - Shannon Waters
scepticA		#4872	[-]
Posts: 1852 (12/15/09 12:09 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Phoenix1269 wrote: Edgic Winners Percentage of winner votes received 28.57% - Mick Trimming 28.57% - Russell Hantz 21.43% - Jaison Robinson 21.43% - Natalie White 0.00% - Brett Clouser 0.00% - Shannon Waters That is amazing. I'm not going to do a "it's amazing that so many of you are dunces" routine. We basically have a 4-way tie. That is amazing. there is no edgic consensus at all. Phoeniz, please explain exactly what MOR Differential is tallying. It says, "sum difference from middle of the road." And the edgic guidelins are somewhat contradictory. they say: "Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings)." The latter should actually say, "the low number in MOR differential," because the lower the number the closer the person is to the average. See Yul as an example. Yet the first part of that statement seems to mislead people: "closer to the average of all players" is what MOR Diff is itself measuring! So someone halfway up this list is actually farther away from the average. Like I said, Phoenix, my head is swimming, especially because we have completely change what is important about MOR diff in the last few years.
augustus713		#4873	[-]
Posts: 187 (12/15/09 12:27 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	scepticA wrote: That is amazing. I'm not going to do a "it's amazing that so many of you are dunces" routine. We basically have a 4-way tie. That is amazing. there is no edgic consensus at all. Phoeniz, please explain exactly what MOR Differential is tallying. It says, "sum difference from middle of the road." And the edgic guidelins are somewhat contradictory. they say: "Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings)." The latter should actually say, "the low number in MOR differential," because the lower the number the closer the person is to the average. See Yul as an example. Yet the first part of that statement seems to mislead people: "closer to the average of all players" is what MOR Diff is itself measuring! So someone halfway up this list is actually farther away from the average. Like I said, Phoenix, my head is swimming, especially because we have completely change what is important about MOR diff in the last few years. Yup, edgic basically does not really have a clue what's going on right now and that's a good job by the editors.
BlakeB717		#4874	[-]
Posts: 2624 (12/15/09 12:32 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	50% of those votes surprise me.
JaimeCat22		#4875	[-]
Posts: 214 (12/15/09 12:45 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	One other interesting thing I noticed about Danni's confessional stats. She had at least one confessional in each of the first 12 episodes except for one. So they were always careful to make sure she stayed on the radar, even if it was just barely. As opposed to Natalie who has gone without a confessional in 7 out of 12 episodes. Not that confessionals are the be-all-and-end-all of editing, but it's still a striking difference.
BlakeB717		#4876	[-]
Posts: 2625 (12/15/09 12:47 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	It's striking that Natalie has been UTR for 8/12 episodes and has 21%!
Oowatanite		#4877	[-]
Posts: 9717 (12/15/09 12:50 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	augustus713 wrote: scepticA wrote: That is amazing. I'm not going to do a "it's amazing that so many of you are dunces" routine. We basically have a 4-way tie. That is amazing. there is no edgic consensus at all. Yup, edgic basically does not really have a clue what's going on right now and that's a good job by the editors. Nope, many so-called edgicers do not have a clue what's going on right now and have thrown Edgic out the window because of the pathetic job by the editors.
chapera rocks		#4878	[-]
Posts: 12232 (12/15/09 01:08 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	astroline wrote: I look forward to seeing posts next week from winged, deceased Blake! I hope he has visions for our futures. Stay humble, he could be right ya know.
cantthinkofaname		#4879	[-]
Posts: 1630 (12/15/09 01:13 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Tone Monica Padilla NN (0%), N (18.8%), neutral (12.5%) mixed (25%) , P (43.8%), PP (0%)(note: 4 out of 6 neutral votes were for dynamic) Do I sense another Tyson-episode-one.
Kitty Pryde1		#4880	[-]
Posts: 11070 (12/15/09 01:26 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ad freedom fighters united! Remove this ad Monica was by no means positive, given just how hateful most reactions to her in this episode were. No one was cheering for her, and liberal use of the word "bitch" was used.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)