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I think Shambo's "take someone to the end who deserves it" thing is foreshadowing that she may decide to make a play and vote out Russell who's now widely known to be a multimillionaire and doesn't deserve the money. Heck, if she even thought about that for 5 seconds longer, she may even realize that doing so would boost her OWN chances of winning, blindsiding the kingpin of the game, and earning some goddamn respect for once.

So although the previews of shifting alliances could be ULTRA misleading, I really do think Mick and Natalie will start to make a move to "kill the snake" and join up with Brett, and convince Shambo to make a majority of 4 against 2, to first vote out Jaison (his personal achievement story coming to a close and getting its own full episode), subsequent to which Russell's idol is rendered useless. If Brett wins immunity next episode, this plan is almost a certainty, but even if he doesn't, I still believe Mick will think it wiser to get rid of Russell as soon as possible -- BEFORE Brett -- and voting out Jaison first will diminish Russell's numbers and influence (at most he may be able to pull Natalie back to make it 3 vs. 2 -- if Mick votes out Brett instead of Jaison, as smart as that might sound, it's actually far riskier because more of Russell's old alliance still remains and their allegiance is far too unpredictable for Mick's liking), then with TWO Immunity Challenges left, Mick+Natalie+Shambo will be able to pick off Russell then Brett (or rather, in the order of them not winning those final two Immunity Challenges). The ONLLLY risk Mick and his temp-alliance have is that whoever's left out of Russell or Brett wins the final Immunity Challenge over Mick, Natalie and Shambo. (It's obviously a bit more risky if it's Brett than Russell, but because of the different circumstances each presents, it's practically the same IMHO).

So that's a 1-in-4 shot for Mick. It's indeed a risk, which he's obviously been calculating the entire time. But if anything's clear about Mick's edit, it's that without clear numbers he's a total mess and a total schizo, and the alternative, of not being able to slay Russell and being outclassed at the Final 3 TC, is too much of an unpredictable risk for him, I think. Making this move might pay off spectacularly, whereas being weak and not making the move has a high chance of backfiring, in terms of being able to claim that he in any way "deserves" the million.

So if Russell wins BOTH F5 and F4 Immunity Challenges (unlikely; only way he will stay alive IMHO):
1. Russell (F3) - surely has at least 5 votes wrapped up in this scenario
2. Natalie (F3) - may get some votes from the males (Jaison, John, etc)
3. Shambo (F3)
4. Mick
5. Brett
6. Jaison


However, if Russell doesn't win the F5 IC, and he goes home, but then Brett luckily wins the F4 IC (1-in-4 shot):
1. Brett (F3) - anywhere between 6 and 9 votes surely
2. Mick (F3)
3. Shambo (F3)
4. Natalie
5. Russell
6. Jaison


But if it goes like I'm predicting, i.e. Russell doesn't win both F5 and F4 ICs and Brett doesn't win the F4 IC:
1. Mick (F3) - surely at least 5 votes (Laura, Kelly + Russell & Jaison? Some of the male Galus?)
2. Natalie (F3) - at most 2-3 votes (some male Galus possibly, and maybe Russell)
3. Shambo (F3) - at most 1 vote (I can MAYBE see Russell vote for her but no Galus will vote for her, that's almost certain)
4. Brett
5. Russell
6. Jaison

*Note, these predictions all hinge on Shambo making the easy decision to get rid off Russell (or the emotional decision that he doesn't deserve to be in the F3), and also they presume Jaison does not win the F6 Immunity Challenge, or, of course, presuming Russell doesn't bizarrely give his Idol to Jaison.

Nods wrote:

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Bowie wrote:

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bryanpasa wrote:

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1. Brett [Almost unanimous if he made it to F3]
2. Natalie [If she's in F3 with Brett....then she could get 2nd by how much Galu members are there]
3. Mick [he could somehow win]
4. Jaison [redemption?]
5. Shambo/Russell [could be booted next week since the editors want them to have their single boot episode]

How on Earth can Russell be booted next week if he HAS to use his HII? Unless something bizarre happens, he's safely through to the F5 (after which he HAS to win both immunities, surely).

He doesn't have to win both immunities, if Mick and Natalie will likely turn on Brett once he loses immunity.

the fact that the previews show JAISON taking RUSSELL on a reward challenge (or vice versa) will spell doom for Jaison but after that you have Brett who will win no matter what and if your Mick and you just eliminated Jaison you would then cut Shambo loose because Russell could beat Brett in the final four.

I think you missed my point. How can Russell be voted out NEXT EPISODE (as bryanpasa suggested) if he has a Hidden Immunity Idol left and MUST use it before the end of next episode? He's safe next episode.

Also, I'm pretty certain that Mick from next week onwards will be desperate to make a play and get rid of Russell BEFORE he gets rid of Brett. And the only way to do that is to send Jaison home first and keep Brett around, then vote Russell out the following TC... then hopefully Brett if he doesn't win the final IC.