S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

0 Points

S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

Started By	Comment
SFC		#5201	[-]
Posts: 907 (12/18/09 02:43 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	A tree never hits an automobile except in self-defence. Remove this ad BlakeB717 wrote: chapera rocks wrote: BlakeB717 wrote: I beg to differ. Less airtime. Winner should still be shown. There were a lot of people in that episode had had some form of substantial airtime. Mick was not one of them. Bad for his chances. Also, if you're going to use a 12-person merge as an excuse ... well, Russell Hantz is a walking excuse. And even if this 12 person merge deal was a reason to explain Mick's low visibility, his two subsequent UTR's are inexcusable. If we look at when the merge usually starts (F10), and by my ratings, this is his edit: MOR2, (CP3 recap), MOR3, CP3, MORP2... not bad, IMHO. I really think Mick only had 2 UTR episodes this season. "Mick was not shown in the merge episode" Honestly? Mick got airtime in the merge episode. At the start, he got subtitled lines telling Natalie what to do (stick with the girls). Then he got a confessional saying it was a good day for FoaFoa after reading that they merged, followed by all 3 FoaFoa being shown doing their parts per Russell's confessional and images. Then him/Natalie/Jaison discussed voting Erik off (three sitting on the log), then Erik said he was 'mentally tough' at TC. He didn't do much talking, but he was there throughout. He wasn't completely shafted for a UTR1. Lots was going on that didn't concern him: RussH making 500 alliances, Galu self-destructing because of Natalie, Jaison being the alternate boot target, Shambo flopping to take out Laura. He could have been INV.. but definitely wasn't. It wasn't huge, but it was enough, considering it was all about FoaFoa 1.) He was subtitled because he mumbles so freaking much 2.) Concerning the JMN conversation. Mick was the only one to not get a confessional. You would think that would be a perfect place to give the winner a confessional. It was a bad episode for him. It's pretty much the equivalent of me, a Natalie supporter saying her Ep12 edit was good becuase she had alot of tiny things happen to her but was overshadowed. But No Natalies last episode sucked, and Micks merge episode sucked. The main point I have against Mick is he has no connection to the main story of the season, he is just the "There" guy. Last Edited By: SFC 12/18/09 02:50 AM. Edited 1 times.
BlakeB717		#5202	[-]
Posts: 2701 (12/18/09 02:51 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	"Mick doesn't fit very many guidelines." We all know some are outdated, but let's take a look since we haven't in a while (well, at least I haven't in a while). I remember someone doing this during Micronesia and Parvati had the highest total. 1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT. Brett: 0 Jaison: 1 Mick: 1 Natalie: 0 Russell: 0 2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches. Brett: 0 Jaison: 2 Mick: 2 Natalie: 0 Russell: 1 3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative. Brett: 1 Jaison: 3 Mick: 3 Natalie: 0 Russell: 1 4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1. Brett: 1 Jaison: 4 Mick: 4 Natalie: 0 Russell: 2 5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings). Brett: 1 Jaison: 5 Mick: 5 Natalie: 0 Russell: 2 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe. Brett: 1 Jaison: 6 Mick: 6 Natalie: 1 Russell: 2 .....old 5) The tribe (or the core group that will surround a surprise winner) that has the most complex dynamics and strategy usually contains the winner. .....old 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by the player/s receiving the distracting edit. 7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. Brett: 2 Jaison: 6 Mick: 6 Natalie: 2 Russell: 3 8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win. Brett: 3 Jaison: 7 Mick: 7 Natalie: 2 Russell: 3 number 3: I would argue that Jaison has been TOO toned (too positive and* too negative aka too mixed)--nothing says you have to have a certain amount of tone, and Mick's tone average shows he has some *number 5: Mick has the BEST MORdifferential average Last Edited By: BlakeB717 12/18/09 02:56 AM. Edited 1 times.
chapera rocks		#5203	[-]
Posts: 12281 (12/18/09 03:00 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	JaimeCat22 wrote: Even though I'm rooting for Russell, I hope Mick wins just so Blake can gloat at everyone who has been giving him shit all season long. Please, Blake's a big boy. He dished it out for a good chunk of the season, and was given what he gave. Now, he has vastly improved and I don't think he's being a jerk anymore, while others may be doing so. But to say he was a victim in this whole debacle is a huge overstatement. No one was innocent.
SFC		#5204	[-]
Posts: 908 (12/18/09 03:07 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: "Mick doesn't fit very many guidelines." We all know some are outdated, but let's take a look since we haven't in a while (well, at least I haven't in a while). I remember someone doing this during Micronesia and Parvati had the highest total. 1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT. Brett: 0 Jaison: 1 Mick: 1 Natalie: 0 Russell: 0 2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches. Brett: 0 Jaison: 2 Mick: 2 Natalie: 0 Russell: 1 3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative. Brett: 1 Jaison: 3 Mick: 3 Natalie: 0 Russell: 1 4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1. Brett: 1 Jaison: 4 Mick: 4 Natalie: 0 Russell: 2 5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings). Brett: 1 Jaison: 5 Mick: 5 Natalie: 0 Russell: 2 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe. Brett: 1 Jaison: 6 Mick: 6 Natalie: 1 Russell: 2 .....old 5) The tribe (or the core group that will surround a surprise winner) that has the most complex dynamics and strategy usually contains the winner. .....old 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by the player/s receiving the distracting edit. 7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting. Brett: 2 Jaison: 6 Mick: 6 Natalie: 2 Russell: 3 8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win. Brett: 3 Jaison: 7 Mick: 7 Natalie: 2 Russell: 3 1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT. (Mick hasnt really had an "Up" Yet, or even a "Down" Just MOR) 2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing (Sorry Mick) and typically won't be ignored in long stretches. 3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative (The Only one that OVERLY skews is Russell) . 8 is not one that can be used to find a winner, but to say "Hey, Someone unexpected may get into the Finals". Kinda Like Susie, and Susie won right? Revised: Brett: 2 Jaison: 6 Mick: 4 Natalie: 2 Russell: 2
BlakeB717		#5205	[-]
Posts: 2702 (12/18/09 04:25 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mick applies to both 1 and 2 for sure. He's tied with Jaison for 6, as you put it. -- Natalie's awesome confessional worried me; but, I remembered that I had the same "panic" during the Tocantins penultimate episode with Stephen after this confessional: Stephen: "It looked like Coach had really been suffering… I felt bad for the guy. But you know Coach is still the Dragon Slayer and a really strong competitor. If I want to win this game, I want people I can beat in the finals." But Stephen couldn't beat JT. Natalie: "We really just enjoyed each other's company, I love Mick and Brett a whole lot. Brett's an amazing person, if I have to be standing next to a Galu, Brett is awesome, but I've been in with Russell since the very first day. Honestly, it's so hard to balance your head with your heart, as far as strategically, it's so tough. Hopefully my mind is clear enough to look ahead towards winning this game." Natalie's confessional could have the same problem: can she think strategically rather than with her heart? It could hurt her. Last Edited By: BlakeB717 12/18/09 04:28 AM. Edited 1 times.
rioothello		#5206	[-]
Posts: 86 (12/18/09 05:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Who cares if it was a 12 person merge? People get ignored at 10 person merges too.
getting real		#5207	[-]
Posts: 1986 (12/18/09 05:26 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	This season has been about Russell and Natalie. One of them wins. No, this season has clearly been about Russell. And the rest. One of whom will win, because for Edgic a Russell win would be akin to presenting Count Dracula with sunlight, garlic and a crucifix. As you know, I have since the very beginning believed that that anti-Russell winner for the season would be Natalie, for reasons that have been well-documented She falls entirely within the bounds of Edgic's philosophy and her manipulated story has been obvious from the very first episode when she inherited the mantle of a woman's intuitive mistrust of Russell from Betsy. She was one of the few shown to articulate an early end-game strategy when she articulated the nature of her relationship with Russell. Knowing, as we do now, that that confessional came from a much later date, only enhances the belief that a lot of care has gone into her edit. In a game where, as Shambo put it early, there were a lot of loud males, her edit promptly went UTR, or more correctly, URS (Under Russell's Shadow) until the rmerge. Except, of course, for some well-chosen insertions where she is shown to be encouraging her tribe, and predicting the game's entire outcome to Jaison (when he wanted to quit) that 'Galu might turn'. At the merge, great care is taken to show and repeatedly reinforce how she turned the game by 'working the Galu women'. Care was also taken to show Natalie surprising Russell with her achievement ('You think you did it but I don't think you did it'). Unduli mentioned that we have no evidence of Laura's religious connections or of its connections with Natalie. To the contrary, the editors took great care to emphasize Laura and Natalie's religious bonding (with Russell's blesings) when Laura visited Foa Foa. That it Russell' s own decision to delegate to her the task of cultivating social relationships within Galu is another editing emphasis that likely speaks to the season's entire story and outcome. Having highlighted and re-highlighted Natalie's role in turning the game, the editors once again promptly put her on ice, just as as Russell's negativity started to reach new plateaus. This has been, after all, Russell's season. Now, we've had the penultimate episode, one that was, in Sceptic's words, 'marvellous' for Natalie's chances. Quite frankly, this worries me more about her chances more than I've ever been this entire season. Nevertheless, seeing that the season has been panning out more or less as expected, I'll stick with Natalie to come out of 'nowhere'and her UTRness and re-affirm to Russell and to the viewing audience that this game is, above all else, about building social relationships. That you can be the most strategic and cunning player of all time, but you cannot disrespect women as brazenly as that, you cannot claim that winning Survivor is easy and, above all, you cannot discount the importance of social relationships. Much less delegate them to someone else. Even if they are one of your dumb-ass blonde alliance-mates. Good luck with your picks, everyone, and enjoy the finale - whatever happens. Last Edited By: getting real 12/18/09 07:18 AM. Edited 2 times.
Armitage Shanks		#5208	[-]
Posts: 6 (12/18/09 05:27 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'm pretty sure at TC Mick stated that he hasn't played as aggressively strategically as Russell, not as aggressively strategically like Blake keeps stating.
A Bartholomew		#5209	[-]
Posts: 6012 (12/18/09 06:19 AM) Patriots:Worst 11-5 team EVER Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Brett wins
Bowie.thehole		#5210	[-]
Posts: 596 (12/18/09 08:16 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	A tree never hits an automobile except in self-defence. Remove this ad SFC wrote: ON the flipside however Russell and Natalie are constantly being told to us "They're a pair! They're a pair!" Yup. See episode title.
Kitty Pryde1		#5211	[-]
Posts: 11084 (12/18/09 08:26 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	One thing I thought of last night: This season is more than likely a final 3, unless the producers somehow plan on forcing 4 tribal councils into a two hour period. If this is the case, then the season can't be just about "How Russell loses". It would have to be about how "Russell loses, but X also beats Y". With Brett, I can see him winning no matter what if he's in the finals, but his edit has absolutely sucked. With Jaison, after last night, he completed his story arc, and all those dangling threads are still there (like picking Natalie over Russell or vice versa). He'll probably go out soon. With Mick, he has no real story. Yeah, if he's in the finals with Russell, he could win because Russell's a dick, but how could he beat Jaison, Natalie or Brett as well, given the edit we've seen from them? If the season is about how Russell lost, then it's also about how Natalie won with her amazing social game and forming bonds with most, if not all, of the jury. If Russell won, we already know how he did it. At this point, the only way I see Mick winning is if he's in the finals against Russell AND Jaison, and the jury hates them both for being a dick and a whiner, respectively.
Wc3Fanatic		#5212	[-]
Posts: 1887 (12/18/09 09:41 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Armitage Shanks wrote: I'm pretty sure at TC Mick stated that he hasn't played as aggressively strategically as Russell, not as aggressively strategically like Blake keeps stating. Seconded
bryanpasa		#5213	[-]
Posts: 2921 (12/18/09 09:49 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Lolz, Mick/Jaison aren't winning from my point of view....like the reverse of edgic guidelines. Russ/Natalie prob. wins. This season is kinda "a season that doesn't follow edgic guidelines"
scepticA		#5214	[-]
Posts: 1858 (12/18/09 09:51 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	getting real wrote: Now, we've had the penultimate episode, one that was, in Sceptic's words, 'marvellous' for Natalie's chances. Quite frankly, this worries me more about her chances more than I've ever been this entire season. Actually, I simply said that her episode was marvelous, not that it was marvelous for her chances of winning. (Quote: "Natalie had a marvelous episode. No question about it. So did Brett." I trust you didn't think that I also meant it was marvelous for Brett's chances!) She had a very interesting episode, with some OTT stuff and some CP stuff, by far her biggest episode of the season. If someone asked me if this increases her chances of winning, my response would be, ptobably not. She's not on my radar screen for any sort of edgic type 1, 2 or whatever win. I simply like to get to know the players. Too bad this was the penultimate episode, rather than the first.
bryanpasa		#5215	[-]
Posts: 2922 (12/18/09 09:55 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: Stephen: "It looked like Coach had really been suffering… I felt bad for the guy. But you know Coach is still the Dragon Slayer and a really strong competitor. If I want to win this game, I want people I can beat in the finals." But Stephen couldn't beat JT. He's against a much more likable guy who's given enough credit to win.....while Natalie faces whiners, mutes, NN people, non-existent people etc.... so it COULD be a different outcome.
BlakeB717		#5216	[-]
Posts: 2704 (12/18/09 09:57 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I just rewatched that statement from Mick 3 times, I still can't figure out which he's saying, but based on his tone you're probably right. Regardless, it still doesn't hurt my case (since it's pretty insignificant)--the main point was him saying that he's loyal.
unduli clone		#5217	[-]
Posts: 8048 (12/18/09 10:03 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	SFC wrote: Revised: Brett: 2 Jaison: 6 Mick: 4 Natalie: 2 Russell: 2 This seems more appropriate to me - Jaison ahead of Mick, who is ahead of the even playing field of Brett/Natalie/Russell. Thanks for both of you breaking that down, because it helps refocus what we are doing here in Edgic.
chapera rocks		#5218	[-]
Posts: 12282 (12/18/09 10:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Admittedly, the one reason I take your recent posts with a grain of salt is that .... no matter what, anything shown is great for Mick's edit. Sure, you throw in a comment that last night wasn't good for Mick, but then it's proceeded by about a hundred different reasons why anything was great. Mick's response at TC is great for his chances; but when it's the opposite of what you thought, it's still great for him. I'm not trying to attack you, merely understand, so I'll ask: say Mick loses, can you point out why? Or any downsides in his edit?
RobVanStratus		#5219	[-]
Posts: 9609 (12/18/09 10:28 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I don't see how a given pair matters anymore. We've been given obvious pairs in past seasons, it really started with All-Stars with Romber and the Romber/Jenpert alliance that was obvious in like ep 5. Amanda/Courtney/Todd, Becky/Yul, Amanda/Cirie/Parvati, JT/Stephen are from recent seasons with obvious pairs that made it to the end. Natalie/Russell could be just like them, an obvious pair that makes it to the end. Either way this ends out, no one should be gloating. Gloating is just going to continue to rip apart edgic and make it so no one wants to play. There's a reason I gave up on ratings until recently, it's become ridiculous how people are behaving and the way everyone is treating each other. We say vote based on the episode, yet people are talking about the last episode influencing their votes and how things that are NOT in the show mean something important for certain players. Then you've got people who just have irrational hatred for some players and refuse to give them fair ratings. For example people still can't seem to understand a negative edit from a positive edit. Shambo ends off with this hugely positive episode full of complexity and people are voting for OTT mixed because of a remark that was not meant in a manner of calling Natalie actually a bitch, just voicing her frustration that Natalie was so lucky and the fact that Russell was insulting her. But yet last week, Monica is stirring up trouble for fun, cackling at TC about how she's caused drama with Foa Foa and is called a bitch throughout the episode when it was being used as a negative term for her, and she gets positive votes from nearly everyone.
BlakeB717		#5220	[-]
Posts: 2705 (12/18/09 10:29 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	A tree never hits an automobile except in self-defence. Remove this ad bryanpasa wrote: BlakeB717 wrote: Stephen: "It looked like Coach had really been suffering… I felt bad for the guy. But you know Coach is still the Dragon Slayer and a really strong competitor. If I want to win this game, I want people I can beat in the finals." But Stephen couldn't beat JT. He's against a much more likable guy who's given enough credit to win.....while Natalie faces whiners, mutes, NN people, non-existent people etc.... so it COULD be a different outcome. This post turned into a case for and against Natalie... then for Mick Natalie has had 6 episodes with confessionals (I'm not counting her voice-over reward, plus it isn't relevant to what I'm about to post) out of 13: E4: She talks about how she plans to build personal relationships, follow Russell to the final 2, then hope she can beat him because he's rubbed people the wrong way and built personal relationships E5: She shows herself making a personal relationship with Ashley, and feels that she tried her best and that they both really get along E8: She's trying to find cracks in the Galu women, and she convinces them that they have so many, why not Erik? E9: She kills a rat, which is out of character, and grows as a person. RECAP: She's alligned with Russell and completely loyal to him--she's basically a second vote in Russell's favor and she's fine with that, even if it hurts her. E13: She really likes Brett, and finds it difficult to balance her heart with strategy, and wants to think clearly towards winning the game. When Natalie hasn't been shown giving confessionals, she's been shafted in the editing. The problem is, that when she's been shown, she's totally had a story. She has the end-game, jury connections, and a tight bond with the biggest character in recent history. Also, if it's the story about how Russell loses, Natalie tinges P whilst being UTR, which follows past trends. In the eyes of the viewer, is Natalie a shoe-in for the end, and because she's been positive, have the editors tried to make the viewers think she's a shoe-in for the win? Or, by ignoring her in stretches, have they hidden her but given her the backstory needed? Do they editors want us to think it'll be Russell? Natalie? Since Natalie's story has only been about the end-game with Russell, is she obvious or is she well-crafted and hidden? Susie's confessionals were all about how she'll make it to that Top 3... she got 2nd place, so it was validated. Will Natalie follow in her footsteps? The problem is that Natalie doesn't fit edgic with her first 3 episodes and with her 3 mid-merge episodes. Another problem is that even when Natalie seems to be branching off from Russell, the edit brings it back to her telling Russell everything (like he wants) and saying he has her vote. Scene from the recap: Natalie confessional: "It feels really good to be alligned with Russell, like he's the most powerful player in this game. He knows that whatever he votes I vote too, so really he's got 2 votes no matter what anyway he wants to play it. It may mess me up in the end, but I've made it this far, so, you know, I'm just gonna trust him and we'll go with it, and I'm hoping that I'll be in the final 2." Natalie (to Russell in the hammock): [responding to him after he asks her to promise not to vote him off because she's scared she can't beat him] That's fine, you have played the game better than anybody. You know what, it's not worth the money to lose my integrity out here. If I give you my word, I give you my word. That's the bottom line. Russell confessional: talks about how Natalie can't beat him in votes, she did everything he told him to do I want to point out that the above recap confessional is also the same confessional she gave this episode... so that's a second instance of copying and pasting Natalie's confessionals (why?) Oh, and rioothello, that just goes to show that the episodes Natalie didn't get a confessional are bad, irregardless if she "didn't get to talk to the camera"... they can just show something from another round...Lol Russell and Natalie have been a powerful duo the entire time, well, Russell has been and Natalie has been his henchwoman. Since episode 4, there has been consistent editing foreshadowing for the both of them being in the Final 2 and how they'll beat one another. Both have assumed at least 4 times that there is a Final 2 (whether that's significant or not, I'm not sure, but that is something they could cut out and just place in the word 'end'--the audience may think it'll only be 2 at the end instead of 3). On 3 occasions Russell and Natalie have given back to back confessionals about each other and their relationship, and the edit remains constant: Russell: Natalie is stupid, she's done everything I told her, she's perfect to take to the end because she did everything I told her to do and no one will respect that Natalie: I'll do what Russell says because I'm loyal, hope to get to the end, and hopefully those personal relationships will win me the votes I need Natalie is fulfilling Russell's philosophy by being shown doing what he tells her; but, she's also been shown being able to make moves which Russell discredits. But, can we forget that Natalie has time and time again been shown being his pawn and being his "stupid little girl"? Could they cancel out votes for each other, since both cases have been presented to the audience? Will Natalie far exceed Russell's predictions? Both said they are confident this episode and have the power. Mick is a "likeable, strong guy"... Monica said Mick is a "likeable guy, a thread for jury votes"... since the season has been so give-and-take between Russ and Natalie (who seem to assume it's a final 2), a third party could pull an upset, and Natalie can still fulfill her story of beating Russ. Mick remains the only person who is super wary of Russ, but has yet to be voted out because of it or be punished like Jaison was. Mick's the low man on the totem pole. Natalie's subtitled line this episode saying "It's me you and Jaison" accompanied by 500 SPV for Mick and Brett... Mick is screwed, right? ;-) Russ: "There is only one reason to keep Mick: to beat Brett in challenges" After that, he's toast... right? Unless Mick wins ICs... uh-oh! Last Edited By: BlakeB717 12/18/09 10:31 AM. Edited 1 times.

<< Previous Topic Next Topic >>

Yuku free message boards

S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)