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SFC |
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AbbyGirl |
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Interesting episode. I can't say for sure if it was good or bad for any of the remaining players. I was worried Mick might go, I never thought it would be
Shambo leaving. When Jaison said Shambo goes tonight, I thought huh? I thought she would be there finale night.
Sceptic... I really like your posts, and don't feel alone not knowing who wins this. I am not that sure Mick wins, he is my pick but I really believe any one of old Foa Foa is capable of being the winner. I do not believe Natalie or Russell are viable Edgic picks for winner, but I think they can win and would not be that surprised if one of them does win. I am sticking with my merge pick of Mick because I do think he follows Edgic guidelines and why switch now if I feel that he has a good chance to win? He also fits Edgic better than Natalie or Russell. Jaison does fit Edgic, but I think he has completed his redemption arc and will most likely not be sitting in the final three. Was the episode bad for Mick? With so much of Russell and Shambo, not really. Mick is not the type of guy that stands out or gives good confessionals, I think that is part of why we don't see him more. If he had a bad first episode I would be more worried about his chances. He does not have a perfect Edgic edit, but do we really expect an Earl each season? How boring that would be! They did manage to give him something to say, gave us doubt that he can even make it to the finals, showed him walking and talking with Brett....and he said something at TC. He also is the only one that does not come off as a devout Russell follower. He does follow Russell, but we see his angst and doubt over it, we see his struggle. He tells Brett and Monica that Russell is a snake and he thinks about his alliance with Russell every day and does not feel sure of his game. I think that is a very GOOD thing for Mick. Not being connected at the hip to Russell and seeing him for what he is when Russell is considered evil, can't be bad. Edgic is not about speculation on jury votes, but I see it brought up here quite often. How could Mick win against Nat and Russ in a final three? Nat is so nice, and Russ has played hard. Okay... I will speculate on that, even though I have no idea how a jury vote can go, none of us do. Laura and Brett, sure votes for Natalie? Maybe, but that is only two votes. Maybe they both liked Mick as well, maybe they like Natalie but did not like how she "rode Russell's back" to the end. You do not always vote for who you like the most, maybe you vote for someone that played a game you can respect a little more. Monica? She did not like Russell at all, and we don't know if she was close to Natalie. We did see her talking to Mick a few times and saw them supposedly talking and smiling at each other in the merge episode. John? I think he would be more likely to vote for Russell or Mick than Natalie, I did not see John talk to Natalie.....and if he did, does that mean he respected her game and will vote for her? Russell screwed him over, he knows Nat is Russell's devoted side kick. Mick is not known as Russell's side kick and has told others on the jury he does not trust Russell. Mick was worried about sticking with Russell due to his being a "snake". Yet Mick has remained loyal to Russ and Foa Foa, isn't that a good thing? Is Kelly really buddies with Natalie? Would Dave vote for Natalie over Russ or Mick....or Jaison? How do we know what Dave would do? Shambo might vote for Russell, she did not seem to like any of the women that much, she gravitated more to the men. We have seen her hug Mick and we know Mick was nice to her and liked her. So she could vote for Mick, she could be close to Mick as well as Russell even though she had a final two/three deal with Russell. Mick seemed to treat Shambo with respect, Russell said nasty things about her to Mick and most likely Jaison and Natalie. Say Jaison gets to the jury, he could repeat some things Russell said about Shambo and the others, you never know. I think it's silly to argue over who is going to win and who's pick is better because of the merge episode or whatever. Everyone has their picks and it is what it is. Unless there is a sure thing spoiler out there on who wins, and someone has read it, no one knows who wins this or why they win. And if you read spoilers, you should not be posting here on who you think wins or making bets on it. That is not Edgic folks! |
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BlakeB717 |
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You expect people to go light on Blake knowing damn well he would be a douche if Mick won?Last time I checked, I was well-behaved when JT won. Also, I would love someone to explain this apparent "Mick bias" I have, lol. |
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CrystalOwnage |
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I wasn't in Edgic last year (or...at least I wasn't that active, I posted a rating or two IIRC), so I have no idea if the way you treated some people
this season is the same as the way you treated people last season. Hell, I think I might have thought J.T was gonna win around merge time last season., so we
might have been in agreement then.
I think it was astro that explained the Mick bias a couple of pages ago? You say that Mick NEEDS certain things, like a good episode or whatnot, but when he doesn't get it you start making excuses. And your ratings this episode are obviously trying to show Mick for having a better edit than he did. I'll leave it alone for now, I'll check back in this thread Sunday! =D |
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SFC |
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There is the constant "Mick is getting exactly what he needed this episode" despite his apparent flaws. Some could see that you're really
reaching more into his edit than the editors meant to ie the Mick/Russell "Relationship".
ETA: Just wanna say I have no problems with Blake, we just disagree :)
Last Edited By: SFC
12/18/09 05:50 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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BlakeB717 |
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I find it interesting that I said right after the episode "This was not a good episode for Mick, but I'm satisfied with it as a whole and I'm
solid with my pick". Just because I didn't get exactly what I want, doesn't mean I'm going to eliminate him and change my pick. I feel OK with
it. If he got INV or OTTNN5, maybe not, but I can't be too upset with what I saw last night.
I've posted parts of the edit from last night and from other episodes to try and tie things together, see where the legs and hints are. All I can hope is that you guys read them and read my analysis, and maybe see what I see: Natalie and Russell are getting confident, Mick is on the outs. His edit fits guidelines, I think, the best. I've thought it 20 minutes into the first episode, and I've yet to waver because I'm satisified. You don't have to agree, but that's what I feel completely. I don't get this "bias" stuff. I've posted things that refute my Mick pick (i.e. Amanda), but I'm not going to spend all the day long posting why Mick can't win. He's my pick, and I think he'll win, so I'm going to post what I think points to his win in the edit. Am I not allowed to do that? I think we can all agree that I have not been condescending or rude in my posts since my--as scep put it--"sabbatical". I think, as others have pointed out, I'm being treated pretty poorly. I've done my part (knowingly) and have no regrets, but the fighting was warding off people in drones and I just had to realize that some of these "new posters" just aren't going to listen because they're so sure that edgic doesn't apply (I must ask, then why post in here?). Either you're a hypocrite because "Blake has treated everyone so badly, now it's his turn!!" or 'karma' has swung back in at least 4 or 5 waves now. The finale can't come soon enough! |
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guatemala fanfic |
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SFC wrote:But Edgic loses no matter what and this is important. The guidelines will have to be revised regardless, so I'm sure certain individuals will gloat, but collectively no one should be happy with this season. One guess was just as good as the next. |
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SFC |
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I hope the revisions do happen. We've been talking about updating them for about 5 seasons now and every season they remain the same
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CrystalOwnage |
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guatemala fanfic wrote:Gotta agree with this. Going into the finale without a majority pick for the winner? That's ridiculous. Someone posted the numbers, it's essentially a 4-way tie. Something needs to be done, because clearly Edgic is flawed somewhere (and this coming from a newbie to Edgic) |
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gretchensucks |
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Oowatanite wrote: 1) I never said I think Natalie is an edgic winner. 2) The pun wasn't lost on me when I wrote it. I would like to "unload" on this topic in more ways than one. |
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MasterDarkNinja |
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I didn't get to watch survivor last night till 10:50 PM (darn company party's bad timing), and then I went to bed, and I didn't take notes during
commercial breaks, so I might be forgetting something as I talk about last episode before reading any of the posts in here about it.
I was really surprised by Shambo's final words and how she said the Foa Foa's stuck together 'as it should be', she sure didn't seem bitter, totally not what I was expecting. Maybe Russell bashing Shambo was met to help give us some doubt about Shambo's jury vote as well as foreshadow her going home this episode. Has Jeff ever ended a tribal council with a speech like the one tonight? "Only one thing stands between an all Foa Foa F4, and his name is Brett", either way no way Brett makes it to the end, he might win one more IC but that's it. I've got a strong feeling after this episode that Russell/Natalie/Mick is our F3 after Natalie mentioned them already planning for ages to bring Jaison to the F3 with them. Some of the stuff Mick said this episode (especially at TC) really struck out to me as stuff the jury might bring up (and possibly attack him for, like I recall he sort of implied he had stepped back a lot of the game and let Russell do things). This week Russell was like the exact opposite of his worrying of last week, he said he knew without a doubt that Natalie was with him, and used the opportunity to paint a target on Mick's back. Of course he changed his mind later because of what Jaison said about the IC's, and partially from not liking Shambo. Kind of surprising that they reminded us now just how tight Russell and Natalie are, right before the finale, and with all the foreshadowing about it being a showdown between the two in the finals. Laming promo for a finale ever, none at all, seriously, I was expecting one to name the F5 and go "Russell the dominator, Brett the immunity threat", etc. |
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Armitage Shanks |
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BlakeB717 wrote: *clicks on the Samoa Popularity Poll thread* BlakeB717 wrote: |
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BlakeB717 |
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Sweet lord, for the--let's say--80th time? I do not vote for who I like in those polls. I just try to piss off girlyfans. If that's what y'all
think my Mick pick is based on, I really feel bad for you.
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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BlakeB717 wrote: So wait...you're saying that you think Mick has fewer fanboys than Jaison or Russell? Really? |
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kenc333 |
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How was Natalie saying a prayer and bonding with Brett over religion negative in any way?
Think if you were the editor and you were splicing that scene in.. are you thinking, "Oh this is going to make Natalie look real bad and make most of America hate her!" ? And I probably need to rewatch the episode but I barely remember anything of Jaison or Mick. Nice guys, but I just don't see them having a role in the story of the final outcome of the game. |
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AveryC |
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I made a post in the confessional thread which to me indicated a Jaison victory, but I decided to look at Edgic confessionals as well to see how they stack up.
Russell 4/ 4/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 3/ 6/ 6/ 4/ 3/ 4/ 5 TOTAL = 47 AVERAGE = 3.62 Russell loses over half his confessionals here, from his total of 95. Jaison 2/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 0/ 2/ 3/ 3 TOTAL = 25 AVERAGE = 1.92 Jaison's numbers look very consistant. He loses 6 confessionals to end up with Mick's actual total. Mick 2/ 2/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 2/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 3/ 1 TOTAL = 18 AVERAGE = 1.38 Mick somehow has a zero episode now, and lots of ones. Natalie 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 3 TOTAL = 10 AVERAGE = 0.77 Natalie is made even worse than she already was. Brett 0/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 3 TOTAL = 6 AVERAGE = 0.46 Poor Brett. According to this there are 106 confessionals for the Final 5. The confessionals thread has 170 confessionals for the Final 5. Which really tells me that not counting non-subtitled confessionals is...kinda silly? |
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MasterDarkNinja |
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BlakeB717 wrote:I think you're reading into scenes too much to guess jury votes for Mick. I mean for starters it's a stretch to take Erik's respect for Russell S's leadership and apply it to Mick. The fact is Russell S's tribe kicked Mick's tribe's butts, winning all but 1 IC. Erik lived with with Russell when he was leading them to victory, he only lived with Mick for a few days, after Mick's leadership role was no more. The fact is it's a stretch to say anyone has a connection with Erik, I've said Erik being shown cheering as Russelled played the HII and idoled Kelly was a jury connection, but even I'll admit that's kind of weak. Also how can you say Mick will get Shambo's vote because Russell screwed her over, even though they chose to show her not look bitter at all in her final words, and in fact showed her saying "Foa Foa stuck together, and that's as it should be"? Final words can be manipulated by the editors to explain jury votes to (for example Nate was pissed at Ozzy in his final words, but none of that part of his final words made it on the air, because Nate voted for Ozzy to win). To me Shambo seems kind of up in the air, you'd expect she'd be pissed at Russell from her season long edit, but her exit edit didn't show it, we'll see which it is on Sunday night. Armitage Shanks wrote:That's what I heard to, that TC answer really struck me as something that people on the jury who don't like Mick/won't vote for Mick might bash him for at the FTC. I can totally see him getting a question like "Mick, a few days ago at tribal council you said you haven't played as aggressively as Russell, so why should I vote for you to win instead of Russell"?. |
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getting real |
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Oh yes, Blake gets to criticize us all season when his Mick has a much better edgic chart on paper. An episode comes along where a supporter of Jaison, or maybe Russell or Natalie can argue their Survivor's victory and we still get criticized by Blake that Mick is the best! And now, arguably Mick's worst episode airs but Blake still won't fuck off. Then when Mick loses we must go easy on him? It takes courage to thumb one's nose at their opposition, knowing deep down that the odds really aren't in their favor and that there's a pretty good chance that, sooner or later, there'll be a lot of music to be faced. So, yes, go easy on him. Who knows, he may be right - God forbid.
Not if we consider Edgic as a guiding philosophy rather than a set of inflexible guidelines. |
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guatemala fanfic |
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Not if we consider Edgic as a guiding philosophy rather than a set of inflexible guidelines.No, it is a guiding philosophy (NOT rigid guidelines) but it still should be updated to reflect more recent trends in the editing. If it were a perfect formula, no revisions would be necessary. |
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JaimeCat22 |
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According to gr as long as Rupert or Darrah don't win, edgic is 100% A-OK. Even though Natalie is pretty much a Darrah anyway. Oh right, I forgot her
epic winner's storyline single quote from episode 1 "dumbass blonde". My bad.
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