S-19 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)

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JaimeCat22		#5341	[-]
Posts: 324 (12/19/09 01:27 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Click here to break the ad gravity rule. Remove this ad Posters like rioothello are the reason edgic is going down the crapper, gr. Not people who are giving legitimate constructive criticisms. I'll have more to say about this fiasco of an edgic season on Sunday night after the finale, believe me.
SFC		#5342	[-]
Posts: 929 (12/19/09 01:28 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	rioothello wrote: SFC wrote: He'd be doing YOU a favor. And this isnt the "Please rioothello" thread. And all the other people who are annoyed by him here. Seriously, why are you butt kissing him? Its more of being fair. When I feel Blake is wrong I disagree with him (Check a few pages back). When I feel you're wrong I disagree with you, its as simple as that.
getting real		#5343	[-]
Posts: 1998 (12/19/09 01:33 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Oowatanite wrote: getting real wrote: Awww, did I strike a nerve ?? Nah, mate. It's not about me. I just can't bear people being all doom and gloom about Edgic. Bitter and twisted with regard to individuals is one thing; trying to tear the whole edifice down just because things don't pan out the way you want them to is another thing entirely. In case you haven't noticed, the quality of the Edgic thread has been steadily declining over the last few years. Lots of vets have left or are about to leave. Phoenix posts the numbers and maintains the voting site. And that's it. Warrior posts the vis chart and occasional ratings. And that's it. flf pops in once in a while. And that's it. OTH pops in once in a while. And that's it. CL doesn't even pop in once in a while. Call it burnout, call it frustration, call it whatever. This season, the Edgic thread has been SHIT ! Neverending fights. Biased ratings. Early abandonment of Edgic guidelines. Spoilers running rampant. Ghosties running rampant. Trolls running rampant. It got so bad that I began posting in panurge's thread. Panurge's Thread ! Edgic should be retired. Be put to sleep. Be honourably discharged. Whatever. A new thread can be started next season. To discuss editing. To discuss story arcs. To discuss characters. To discuss themes. Heck, we can even use Edgic terms like CP and OTT and UTR. Forget the voting site. Forget the MORD. Forget the vis charts. Forget the tone ratings. Forget the close calls. Forget the winners tally. Just have a nice simple thread for discussion. And that's it. I can't speak for the people you mentioned but I don't think their absence can, in all cases, be attributed to disillusionment with Edgic. Or even in the majority of cases. The little I have heard from them suggests that their absence is due to personal reasons. Until I hear otherwise, I'll assume that they'll be returning once life, you know, stops intruding. BTW, your reference to CL is interesting. Again, I don't presume to speak for him but my impression was that he grew increasingly uncomfortable with inflexible adherence to formulas. I wouldn't be as pessimistic as you. Like all things worth having, Edgic is dynamic and hopefully will still be evolving long after individuals like us have disappeared.
Phoenix1269		#5344	[-]
Posts: 772 (12/19/09 01:35 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	wallduck wrote: scepticA wrote: Phoenix, please explain exactly what MOR Differential is tallying. It says, "sum difference from middle of the road." And the edgic guidelins are somewhat contradictory. they say: "Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings)." The latter should actually say, "the low number in MOR differential," because the lower the number the closer the person is to the average. See Yul as an example. Yet the first part of that statement seems to mislead people: "closer to the average of all players" is what MOR Diff is itself measuring! So someone halfway up this list is actually farther away from the average. Like I said, Phoenix, my head is swimming, especially because we have completely change what is important about MOR diff in the last few years. You're right that page 1 is ambiguously worded, but there's nothing wrong with your head. Lowest MORD = good. Phoenix has a theory about the median--rather than the lowest--MORD being the best score for a winner. But it's strictly empirical, based on observations of some MORDs in some seasons. It doesn't make any sense, but since it's empirical it doesn't need to. Pastordice invented the MORD, placed a lot of faith in it, and used to say, "Trust the numbers." There are two likely reasons why the lowest MORD doesn't always predict the winner anymore. One is garbage in/ garbage out, as in bad ratings. I suspect it's that. But a more interesting possibility is that winners are trending more towards MOR and UTR, which would imply that 1.0, rather than 0, is the ideal MORD for a winner. But of course if, as expected, Mick or Jaison wins, then the MORD is redeemed (by my definition of redemption, anyway). Hey ScepticA... this explanation from wallduck is pretty much it.... although the lowest MORD has actually only ever worked twice (Aras & Yul) - at least in the seasons that i found MORD numbers for (S10 on) I have been reviewing the MORD numbers since either S10 or S11 and i have found a few interesting trends... one of which is that there is trending in the numbers where the winner is actually closer to the middle (median) within their own season, than to 0.... the other major trend that i have noticed, which wallduck has also picked up on, is that the winners are trending closer to 1 than to 0. I have a post i am working on that goes into this with greater detail. hopefully tomorrow.. too tired tonight. I agree though that the wording on page 1 needs to be reworked... it is actually what made me look into the MORD numbers in the first place. And i think generally Low MORD = good, MORD around 1 = better. ETA: I forgot YUL!!! Last Edited By: Phoenix1269 12/19/09 01:52 AM. Edited 2 times.
BlakeB717		#5345	[-]
Posts: 2741 (12/19/09 01:49 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Phoenix, it's such a rarity to catch you on at the same time. I hope the dating is going well for you :) I'd love to hear some of your thoughts before the finale, if you can manage to sneak a word in here. Geez, so much SPV for me this past hour. I'm so Mick right now--not talking but everyone else is talking about me. That must mean I win on Sunday :)
Oowatanite		#5346	[-]
Posts: 9810 (12/19/09 01:50 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	AbbyGirl wrote: Seems to me the Mick supporters are pretty quiet here, almost having to apologize about Mick being their winner pick or add a disclaimer that they aren't sure Mick is winning (like I have). Even Blake has said that lately and he still gets reamed for wanting to defend his pick. Blake has been put on the defensive many times, it makes anyone supporting Mick not want to even post here! That's not what this board should be about. Natalie supporters are much more aggressive in Edgic as of late. Many have her already winning and are demanding Edgic guidelines be changed because of that. If they can be so sure Natalie wins, why can't anyone defend Mick being their winner pick if they want to? A few picking Russell are equally adament their pick wins and seem to be laughing about Mick even being considered. I am not pointing a finger at the majority here, just some of the posters who know who they are and shall remain nameless. :) If there are spoilers out there and that's why some of this is going on, I will be ticked. I am here to do Edgic, I do not want to be spoiled or have pop in posters making suspicious fly by remarks ridiculing other posters because of what they think they know. Seems a certain band wagon has been getting heavily loaded lately, that's all I will say. Since Blake came back he has been behaving pretty well and has a right to defend his pick and not apologize for it. That is what others were complaining about with him a few weeks ago, now it's some on the other side doing it to him. I feel like I should be sorry I am picking Mick when I read posts here, like I am making a huge mistake and I'm not sure why that is. Mick hasn't been invisible, he hasn't been OTTN, he hasn't killed a baby, he hasn't been too OTTP....so he should still be considered a winner pick by some who think he can win according to Edgic and how they perceive it. I can't think of a better thing for him than to be shown as the only possible anti Russell Foa Foa player, struggling with his doubts of sticking with an alliance that includes "the snake" Russell, and his loyalty that has been there with Foa Foa since the beginning. If the jury dislikes Russell, would they not give Mick some credit for that? Maybe they would, none of you can say they would not since you can't possibly know for sure. I also think that has been part of his story, his struggle all through the game, trying to take it one day at a time and hanging in there without complaining. He is not as closely associated with negative,evil Russell as Jaison and Natalie are....if it were Natalie saying what Mick has been saying (about Russell) she would be getting applause for it. I have given credit to those defending their picks other than Mick and meant it. I think we all deserve that respect here, no one should be ridiculed for picking Mick because they feel Natalie has more story and vice versa. Natalie's story is solely connected to Russell, is that really going to make her the winner? It could, but there are still those three bad episodes in the beginning that make her Edgic chances not so good IMO. GR has made good points for Natalie but is also decent about it and not acting like he's one hundred percent sure it's her. Some people here could learn from GR and others who make good points about their winner pick while respecting other's choices for winner. Oo's brief posts are starting to look good to me...I never thought I'd say that! Okay, I am back to being UTR Abby. PS: I can't wait for Cindi to name names Sunday night, if anyone should get bashed here it's Edgic posters who read spoilers and deny it. No one deserves bashing just because they picked Mick to win, he has had a better EDGIC edit than Natalie and Russ, just saying.... Yay Me !!!! Sunday at 10:05 pm ........ Edgic Oo
BlakeB717		#5347	[-]
Posts: 2742 (12/19/09 01:53 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Oo, you forgot that a select few of us will just need to post this: THEN we can hit the popcorn.
Oowatanite		#5348	[-]
Posts: 9811 (12/19/09 01:54 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	scepticA wrote: Say, Oo, how is that Panurge thread? Just wondering for a response from someone who's snark level is so high that a positive review means something, Let me put it this way - a lot of posters here would absolutely LOVE panurge's thread. Which makes it surprising that his thread does not get more activity. Go figure.
BlakeB717		#5349	[-]
Posts: 2743 (12/19/09 02:02 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I usually use the time between the penultimate ep and the finale to review posts in the first 3 episodes. I remember Bob having a few CPP3s... JT getting a lot of CP2s... and now I'm seeing a few CPP3s and CP3s for Mick... it's almost fate
AbbyGirl		#5350	[-]
Posts: 87 (12/19/09 02:15 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Click here to break the ad gravity rule. Remove this ad LOL, Oo....I knew that would get your attention! Sometimes you can be very....coherent. I will be here Sunday night after the finale no matter who wins. I will have a big bowl of popcorn and a Diet Coke....or light beer, it depends on my mood. I can't wait to see the bashing, just so it's the right ones that are getting bashed. (Cindi's wall of shame) :) I miss the old posters, I hope they come back and Edgic can be restored to what is used to be with whatever changes it needs to make. I just might hop over to Panurge's thread, it sounds interesting. Blake, I sure hope we are right about Mick....if we're not, want to share a six pack of light beer with me?
BlakeB717		#5351	[-]
Posts: 2744 (12/19/09 02:19 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Blake, I sure hope we are right about Mick....if we're not, want to share a six pack of light beer with me? How 'bout a bottle of vodka and a couple anti-depressants! Ha ha!
AbbyGirl		#5352	[-]
Posts: 88 (12/19/09 03:01 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd be under the table for sure with that combo! Make it rum and coke with a twist of lime....and a few Tylenol later.
craig		#5353	[-]
Posts: 16680 (12/19/09 03:03 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Blake has been put on the defensive many times, it makes anyone supporting Mick not want to even post here! That's not what this board should be about. Cry me a river. I'd have some sympathy if he wasn't such a dogmatist and a bully when he had the edgic majority on his side. Remember how he treated anyone who thought Erinn had a ghost of a chance? It was like he was Pope of Edgic and he was laying down the law on heresy. Plus he is hugely biased, but uses ad hominem accusations of bias to dismiss other's arguments. Oo I respect, because he's been willing to be a maverick many times, defending minority views and taking the abuse. Even is he is fabulously wrong this time. :)
rioothello		#5354	[-]
Posts: 99 (12/19/09 03:07 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: Oo, you forgot that a select few of us will just need to post this: THEN we can hit the popcorn. The select few will be the Natalie/Russell supporters Not the Mick supporters.
darknight		#5355	[-]
Posts: 28 (12/19/09 04:30 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	JaimeCat22 wrote: According to gr as long as Rupert or Darrah don't win, edgic is 100% A-OK. Even though Natalie is pretty much a Darrah anyway. Oh right, I forgot her epic winner's storyline single quote from episode 1 "dumbass blonde". My bad. Episode 1, DUMBASS GIRL ALLIANCE?: Russell calls Nat one of his dumbass girls. I believe Nat was shown looking up when Russell was sabotaging the camp but said nothing the next day. Russell tells Betsy to trust him and she will go far. Betsy tells Nat not to trust Russell. Betsy is proven to have made the worng decisio and goes home while Nat makes it far sticking with Russell and not with Betsy. Nat is proved not so dumb after all and that comment might come back to haunt Russell. Episode 4, PERFECT SOCIAL GAME: Russell talks about taking Nat to the final and how he can beat her. Nat spoke about her social skills (Survivor is first and foremost a social game which Edgic ignores) of building relatinships and not stepping on any toes to get to the end and win the game and beat Russell. She has indeed played a great social game. Can't remember any other survivor who has played as good socially. A couple (or is that 3, Tina-Vecep-Danni?) of religious christian females with good social game have also won Survivor and we were fed all that christian stuff of Nat with Laura and then with Brett. Episode 6, WINNER QUOTE: Just before tribal, Jaisons says to Nat "This whole tribe could be done by day 21 at the rate we are going"...Nat replies "I think it can be done, i think it can be done, they'll have people flip over there". Despite been a Russell supporter, this quote has stuck in my mind throughout the season and i feel this could be the winner quote of the season. Natalie has a big chance to win this as its between possibly the best strategist in survivor history (Russ) against the perfect and best social player in survivor history (Nat). Mick is not even a contender in my eyes. Every season we are told this is first and foremost a social game and i believe second is strategic (is this in Edgic guidelines to help pick a winner?) so a Natalie win would surprise the number crunchers and Edgic who have ignored the basic principles of Survivor. Its a SOCIAL GAME!!
Armitage Shanks		#5356	[-]
Posts: 8 (12/19/09 06:58 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	darknight wrote: ...the perfect and best social player in survivor history (Nat)... Woah. Umm, JT? Last season? Voting-wise, a perfect game? Other players wanting him to win?
Trixiego		#5357	[-]
Posts: 19039 (12/19/09 08:07 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish Reply Quote More Recent Posts	JaimeCat22 wrote: I think I said this before, but it should be merged into a general "Who do you think will win?" thread. That way people who want to follow the edgic guidelines can do so, people who want to use stories/themes to pick the winner can do so, or any other criteria (aside from spoilers...but who are we kidding?) to pick a winner. That's basically what has happened this season anyway. Only a few people are actually using edgic, otherwise Jaison would have been the overwhelming pick. People just use this thread to post their winner picks even if it's not edgic-based because it's the busiest thread in Spec. Panurge's thread is getting some action this season, but you might as well merge edgic and story analysis into one thread. Even the Natalie supporters admit that their pick is based on story, not on edgic guidelines. Like that isn't fraught with spoiler readers? So how different is that from Edgic? As for the Natalie supporters picking her SOLELY based on story, that's pretty funny (but I understand the point you are making with respect to edgic only) You won't solve the spoiler problem in edgic which is a shame but it's a reality. You won't solve the spoiler problem in ANY spec thread for one reason only. There are people who will NOT admit they read spoilers yet post their "analysis" under the spoiler free guise. For all the trashing that is done on the people who read spoilers but post here - they are at least not pretending to be anything they are not and admit to it freely. You are fighting ghosts in speculation and that is what should annoy you. Those who pretend they are spoiler free and post their wise choices are the ones you should be annoyed at but unfortunately you don't know who you should be angry with. If you are concerned about next season, you better figure something out because this season was JUST as spoiled as next season and there are quite a few of you who feel this season was a failure in here. For those who want to crow over their winner pick or want to act out because of their loser pick this season...... how bout acting your age (though that may be a loaded statement) and realize that not one person here who made their selection (and ends up being right) will be looked at without suspicion because this season was spoiled ridiculously. You'll like like an idiot boasting "OTT" over your accomplishment so how bout acting with a little class. Last Edited By: Trixiego 12/19/09 08:11 AM. Edited 1 times.
Mypoody2		#5358	[-]
Posts: 10787 (12/19/09 08:38 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I see people who post in edgic in the spoiler section all the time. It's whatever... The less spoilers, the less accurate Edgic is. There's no secret there. Also: You mother fuckers better quit pickin on my blakey or I will have to start crackin skullz.
MasterDarkNinja		#5359	[-]
Posts: 2962 (12/19/09 08:41 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	BlakeB717 wrote: I say we just do Edgic without the winner votes. It'll knock down a huge level of discussion, but I would hate to lose an entire season of statistics. Edgic follows patterns, and patterns evolve. Umm... if there isn't winner picks/spec then I don't see how a lot of people are going to be motivated to post in edgic, even if we don't keep track of them on the charts people will still post and argue about who wins. I disappeared for a season and a half because I was getting tired of doing edgic ratings, but then I came back in the middle of this season because it was just such a good season that interested me more then the last few.
colorfulfan		#5360	[-]
Posts: 16 (12/19/09 09:01 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Click here to break the ad gravity rule. Remove this ad It is clear Russell wins cause of all the doubt he has of winning in the game and in booted castaways' interviews.

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S-19 Edgic (editing and logic)