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Jeff reminded us that since the merge, the Foa Foa 4 has joined forces with Shambo but now that they are in the majority…
<Mick's confessional about wanting to make a big move>
…their loyalties have become clouded…
<Mick seen through a cloud of smoke!>
…by thoughts about the end game.
<Russell's confessional expressing concerns about Mick freaking out>

After Brett saved himself by winning immunity, Monica was on the hot seat so she stirred up trouble around camp…
<Monica telling Russell about keeping threats around>
…in a desperate attempt to stay alive.
But her plan didn't work.
<Mick voting out the "little snake in the grass">
The Foa Foa 4 sent her packing.

The recap set up a confrontation between Mick and Russell.

This episode was about:

Relationships

Aiga
Night 33

Brett (interview after giving Shambo a head rub): "I'm basically sitting around a camp that I've known for 33 days with an entirely different group of people that I would have ever imagined." <We first see Russell and Mick and then Natalie but not Jaison> "I'm the last true Galu and I'm a fighter so I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing and make it as far as possible."

Russell: (solo): "Monica going home was an extremely easy choice. It would have been Brett but he won the immunity then it had to be Monica. As soon as Brett loses, he's gone. He has to because he'll keep winning... all the way to the top."

Aiga
Day 34

Brett was in the shelter, reciting verses to Natalie: "I pray that out of his glorious riches he may strengthen you with power through his Spirit in your inner being,"

Brett (solo): "There are a lot of cards stacked up against me but I'm definitely going to try to work what I have here and Natalie and I come from a similar walk of life. Something like that is a great foundation for a trusting relationship. I think that this personal interaction could turn into something really promising."
Yes, for one of you, probably

Natalie (confessional): "Oh! My gosh! Brett is an absolute sweetheart. Brett and I have had several discussions about the Bible…It's been nice to have that in common."
If they had several discussions, then it's interesting that the verse chosen to make it on air spoke of inner power, something needed for an endurance challenge. Could Natalie win the final challenge? Or is it the part about riches that matters?!

From a spiritual scene, we jumped directly to a ridiculous one: Shambo's hair.
Let's skip that and just note that it was her "friend" Russell who told us how nasty it was.

The Reward Challenge

Natalie and Russell were the captains.
Natalie chose first and picked Brett!
Russell then picked Jaison.
Mick went to Natalie's team and Shambo wound up with Russell.

Even Jeff joined in the mullet-bashing but Shambo didn't hear or didn't want to hear the sarcasm.

Natalie told Mick: "Slow and steady"
That's how the turtle won the race
Natalie: "Brett, you're a prayer warrior, aren't you? I'm one too. Let me have your hand. Let God guide your hand on the next one."
Russell observed the joining of the hands and told Shambo: "I'm surprised by Natalie's first pick. Straight to Brett. We're going to have to break that up over there. Something might be going on."

On her first turn, Natalie got through with only 1 coconut which led to Shambo's "You lucky little b*tch."
On her second turn, Jeff noted that Natalie had good luck in the challenge so far.
"God has taken care of me, for sure" she replied but it didn't last.
As Shambo predicted, (how many times did Shambo "predict" a number though is unknown) she dropped 58 coconuts.
Russell, the best at pulling strings, got through without a single coconut dropping.
Brett, despite being a prayer warrior, lost the challenge.
We heard Natalie telling the other team: "Enjoy it…Have fun."

Jaison (on the way out) : "I'm definitely concerned about Natalie after she picked Brett and Mick. I'm more worried about inter-divisions that are starting to appear in our alliance."

The Reward

Jaison (solo) : "When we won the reward, it didn't mean much. I didn't know what a reward was because I never been on one. Every single day out here has been a grind… has been a loss… has been an attempt to survive another day in the game of Survivor. But, once I got there it was a totally different experience. To have a day off was absolutely amazing."

Jaison was ready to get jiggy with it while Russell wasn't taking the day off:

Russell (interview) : "As soon as I won the challenge, I thought it was perfect for me because the food gives me energy, gets me pumped up. I'll take any edge I can get right now. Mick and Brett, it makes them weaker because they didn't get to eat… So I think it's a great thing they didn't win today."

Shambo (interview) : "What I most wanted to do in Samoa was to be part of that cultural experience with the native tribes…I have to continue to build those relationships…"

Aiga
Day 34

Brett told Natalie and Mick that they should enjoy the day, go for snails and watch the sunset on the beach with no game talk.
They all agreed and joined hands again.
A scene that was used in the promo to make us think that a strategic move would happen was just an innocent moment of bonding. On the other hand, that's still a strategic move!

Brett: "We lost the challenge today, but… in a weird way, we'll create a reward for ourselves. I don't play this game overly aggressively, I don't get in people's faces but it's cool to hang out with each other and nurture the relationship."

Natalie (interview) : "Brett, Mick and myself, we just decided today that we are going to have good attitudes. We just enjoyed each other and I like Mick and Brett a whole lot. Brett is an amazing person. If I have to be standing next to a Galu, Brett is awesome. But, I have been in with Russell since the very first day. Honestly, it's the hardest thing to balance your heart and your head. As far as strategically and what your heart is telling you: It is so tough. Hopefully, my mind is thinking clear enough to look at the end, to be able to win the game."
Note that, during the famous helicopter shot, although Brett, Mick and Natalie were all seen, it was Natalie's confessional that was heard and it was a game oriented reflection.

Night on Reward

Shambo was being a goofball while Jaison was questioning Natalie's choice.
Russell said he needed talk to Natalie but…

Russell (interview) : "They are thinking that Natalie is aligning herself with Brett and Mick but that ain't happening. I know for a fact that Natalie is with me. But, I'm putting it in their head that maybe something is going on with Mick, Natalie and Brett so we're going to have to stop it immediately. My point of this is to get rid of Brett or Mick. Those two are big threats; they are likable guys. There's nothing else that can stop me."

Aiga
Day 35

Russell walked away from the group near the shelter to go to the hammock. Natalie joined him.
Natalie reassured him: "it's me, you and Jaison…That was our plan anyway…You had no doubt in your mind I hope when I picked him first?"

Natalie (interview) : "Russell, from the very first day, he told me "I'm going to take you to the final two if I can trust you." I was like, you can trust me. I've been completely honest with him, letting him know what's going on. We've been on the same page with everything so we actually have quite a bit of power. Two brains are better than one."
This is probably Natalie's first episode title-quote. A quote that confronts us with the dumbass girl theme that emerged on day 1.

Russell told her: "You be confident, because it's gonna happen".
That sounded a lot like his: "You got it made" from episode #4.

Russell (interview) : "If we can prevent Brett from winning immunity, today will be a wonderful day. There will be no arguments. He has to go. He's a little punk, he's 110 pounds, he's not faster than me, he's not stronger than me so he's not a huge threat to win the challenges but he is a huge threat to win the million dollars."
Except he's better at solving puzzles.

The Immunity Puzzle!
As he predicted, Russell was the fastest to the stations and the first one back to the table (those short legs can move!) but Brett, kicking it into high gear, solved the puzzle.
Natalie? She was just counting fish, not a threat in this challenge.
Russell, this time, shook hands with the winner.

Jaison (interview) : "It's so frustrating; Brett winning two in a row. What if he wins three? What if he wins four? Then, we're screwed. Russell and I said that, if Brett wins immunity again we'd get rid of Mick but I think Shambo is not helping us in the challenges to beat Brett. <Natalie shown on screen as he says this> Tonight's Shambo's night and we're just going to get rid of her."
Did Natalie help beat Brett? No, so maybe it should have been her turn. Or maybe she's the one that ultimately beats Brett.

An Opportunity Missed

Aiga
Day 36

Jaison told Russell "If Brett goes (to the end), we all lose. If we we're going to have a shot at Brett, then we got to have Mick."

Shambo was worried but Russell told her it was going to be Mick.

Russell (interview) : "We just get back to camp and Jaison walks up to me immediately and says "You know what's got to happen, we have to get rid of Shambo." I didn't want to do it this route; I wanted to get rid of Mick. We didn't want Brett to win immunity but he did. Worst case scenario is Brett keeps on winning. His whole crew is over there watching him on the jury but right now, we have a decision to make: Either Mick or Shambo."
I wonder how Russell felt about receiving strategic orders from Jaison?

Russell told Mick that Shambo gets on his nerves that she was only there because they used her.

Mick (interview) : "I was surprised, I was a little shocked. Russell has spent a lot of time with Shambo, cultivating that relationship. Now, it sounds like he's scheming to vote her off. I think you've got to be skeptical all the time, always assume that something else is going on in their minds. That every time someone smiles at you, what's going on really in their minds? Of course, there's a chance that Russell's lying to me and he could be taking me out tonight. I'm anxious as hell, it scares the hell out of me."

Then, Shambo asked Russell: "Don't you think that Mick thinks it's a little strange that nobody's talking about who they're voting?"

Russell (interview) : "My decision tonight is either Shambo or Mick. I could keep Shambo around because she won't put my name down, she's horrible at the challenges and she won't get any votes for the million dollars. That's three good reasons, extremely good reasons. The only good reason to keep Mick around - there's one - is to keep athletes together to be able to beat Brett in the next immunity challenge. Right now, I'm not sure what I'm going to do. The immunity idol, I'm going to have it around my neck because it's the last day I can play it. Even if I didn't have it, I wouldn't be voted off but I have it so I'll be fine."

Tribal Council

Jeff told Russell that Shambo has been with them a long time.
<That irritated Laura>
"I'm a traitor" laughed Shambo.
Asked about Shambo's betrayal, Natalie said: "it's an opportunity to keep someone that I think I can beat."
<Mick shown>
Russell said: "She's helped us tremendously and I trust Shambo as much as I trust the Foa Foa members."
<Mick shown again>
Russell added: "There are phases to this game. Right now, we are in the end phase and that phase is who's going to get the most votes for the million dollars."
<Unfortunately, the camera went to Shambo just then>
Jaison said: "Everyone thinks that Brett is the one guy that could sweep a jury."
Shambo enumerated the reason why Brett was a threat.
<Monica winked to Brett in agreement>
Brett was determined to win those challenges.
Jeff pointed out that Mick was the other physical threat.
Mick said he'd be frustrated if it was him that left: "I've been part of this whole thing from the get-go. I haven't played as aggressively a strategic game as Russell but I have always been loyal. So, after all this, to go home tonight, yeah! I would be a little pissed off for sure."
Russell said it would be the first tough vote.

With a nice touch, Jeff asked: "If you have the immunity idol around your neck and you want to play it, tonight is the last time you can do so."
Russell, being Russell, decided to keep a souvenir!?
The camera showed that Erik couldn't believe the move.

<Mick seemed surprised to get one vote>
<Laura enjoyed seeing the Shambo votes>
<Shambo looked upset and left hugging only Brett>
<Dave shook his head and looked at the sky>

Jeff left them by saying that Brett was the only thing standing in the way of a Foa Foa Final 4.

The Decision

Russell will not win. All season long, his story kept him in contention to win this game but this episode was about relationships. It showed that Russell, being Russell, hasn't cultivated those relationships. It was hearing him call Monica a "little bitch", Brett a "young punk" and Shambo "nasty" that showed he doesn't deserve the votes. A winner, even the most evil one ever, would have been presented as being less disrespectful in his final days.

There was also a strong message that Russell missed an opportunity in this episode to seal his victory. So, who did he let slip by and will get the million dollars?

The case for Brett: His million depends on 2 immunity wins but he won't get them. Not only because he was so meaningless to the story before the last few episodes but because, when he was shown early on, he was always directly implicated in the worst aspects of Galu. He was next to John when they couldn't agree on the shelter, he was part of the Yoga sessions, he was in the 90210 clique and he was part of the decision that elected Shambo as leader, the move that irrevocably split the tribe.

The case for Jaison: Alongside Russell, Jaison was shown missing an opportunity. His confessionals reinforced the idea that Foa Foa had a problem. He's the athlete that should compete against Brett yet Jeff didn't include him in the physical threats. Why? Probably because it won't matter, Jaison will not be the one to beat Brett and he won't win the immunity challenge when he needs it. Remember, the last time Jeff took the necklace from him, the feel was that Jaison wouldn't see it again. Anyway, he's the only one that Russell could see taking credit for the game's strategy. Russell won't want to have anyone telling the jury that they had a part in the decisions.

That brings us to:

The case for Mick: He's certainly not the one that could challenge Russell about controlling the game. We didn't even see him make a move to protect himself when he was in danger even if we heard him say he was scared as hell.

On the other hand, this was a great episode for Mick if we are looking for the player that slipped by Russell's radar. We heard that Mick was likable, that he had to go but, even if Brett wasn't available, Mick survived. That could be Mick's winning story. We've always felt that Mick was well perceived by the jury but his relationships with them were never really outlined. That could be good or bad for him. I've always felt that Mick's story was lacking so a last minute surge can only serve to cloud the issue, much like that scene in the recap.

Natalie will be Sole Survivor : They didn't get the helicopter pilot to fly out just to underline the confessional of a loser, did they?! She is well liked, we were shown that explicitly but she wasn't mentioned by Russell as a threat. The message seems to be that she has completely fooled him. We know how she bonded with a tribe that has many religious players. The verse about inner power sounded like an explanation for her victory. It could even foreshadow that she wins the final immunity.

She didn't miss the opportunity that a challenge loss gave her to build a relationship with Brett. She doesn't see him as a punk which was a big contrast to Russell's opinion. We even heard her wish well to the victors to let us know that she's always nice, that she wasn't being Russell! Many expect a bitter jury against Russell, I expect a jury that will be happy to hand the check to someone they like.

That confrontation is certainly there. It could explain a win by Mick but Mick expects Russell to bite him like the snake he is and still does nothing. We even heard Shambo say that Mick was strangely quiet. Yes, I know, the theme that too much talk is bad but it has to be countered by action.

From what we saw, what case can Mick present to the jury?
- I was loyal to Foa Foa + I'm not aggressive and hated like Russell: That's giving votes to Natalie.

- I didn't trust Russell: Then why didn't he vote him out?

- I didn't get caught up in the leadership role: Galu is a tribe that loved their leader and he almost died for them. Bad idea to point out he wasn't Swan.

- Russell's a millionaire: Mick's a doctor so that's giving more votes to Natalie.

Checkmate? I think so. Unless Mick does win immunity and is the one responsible for Brett's eviction. That could get him votes. But the foreshadowing was for Natalie to win it.

Thank you, Phoenix, Chapera Rocks and FallenTorch, it's nice to know that, sometimes, I understand what the authors (the editors) are trying to tell us.

I was especially happy to hear Shambo's and Erik's quotes about Mick. All the way back in episode #2, I felt that Mick's story was all wrong and it kept getting worse. He was feckless!

Also, Natalie's mention of her intuition tied in nicely with the episode #1 scene with Betsy.

I want to thank everyone, yes everyone, that contributed to the thread. Even detractors like Blake and Oo kept me on my toes. Hopefully, I have shown that this way of analyzing themes and stories is an interesting way to look at this TV series and that it can be valuable to speculate on the outcome.

PS: Regarding

Blake wrote:

Natalie told Mick: "Slow and steady"
That's how the turtle won the race

Oo is gonna rip you for that one, LOL

Blake, if you see Oo, can you ask him if he saw the turtle swimming calmly below the surface of the raging ocean?!!!!!!!

Yes, Craig, I pointed that Shambo's remark in episode #1 "The male domination talking and not really hearing themselves" could be a theme to the season. "Talking vs Action" could even explain why Natalie was quiet in the first episodes.

John was central to the episode #1 scene. Then, in the episode where Natalie and John found themselves in the cradle during a challenge, the editors probably used that to contrast the two players. Nastalie won the challenge over John and later she was on the chopping block, targeted by Galu who were afraid of Russell's idol. Did she panic? Don't know but we didn't see her panicking, we didn't even hear talking, complaining about it. John felt he was put on the chopping block by Monica's ploy and we saw him panic, go to Russell and eventually made the move that finished off Galu.