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So - here it is.... Phoenix's pre-finale MOR Differential Winner's Analysis.

I'll warn you now, it's long, it contains charts & stats, and it's messy!!!

feel free to scroll past, but it is interesting if you are into that kind of thing...

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Charts S10-S18


S10S10S10S10S10S10S10S10S1010S1 Sx10S10S110 S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S10S110S1S1 S12S12S12S1xx2S12S12S12S12S12S12S 12S12


S13S10S10S10S10S10S10S10S1010S1 Sx10S10S110 S14S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S10S110S1S1 S15S12S12S1xx2S12S12S12S12S12S12S 12S12


S16S10S10S10S10S10S10S10S1010S1 Sx10S10S110 S17S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S11S10S110S1S1 S18S12S12S1xx2S12S12S12S12S12S12S 12S12


FINAL MORDIFF WINNERS RANKINGS (S10 to S18)
from highest to lowest

1.64 Tom (1 above midpoint)
1.53 JT (on midpoint / topside)
1.48 Bob (on midpoint / topside)
1.20 Todd (1 below midpoint)
1.03 Danni (on midpoint / topside)
1.02 Earl (3 below midpoint)
0.64 Parvati (6 below midpoint)
0.55 Yul (10 below midpoint)
0.47 Aras (8 below midpoint)

Winner's Median: 1.025
Winner's Average: 1.06 (indicated with a dark blue line on the charts)


If you are interested... See original post from Gabon here

Trends & Observations Out of 9 Completed Seasons
(assuming that the Target of the MORD is closest to Zero)

A. 9 out of 9 winners are BELOW the mid-range value for their season. (dark orange line; highest MORD / 2)

B. 9 out of 9 winners are not the HIGHEST MORD of their season.... the closest we've ever gotten was with JT, who was still a full HALF of the highest MORD (Coach), and was 6 full positions off of the top of the scale.

C. 7 / 9 (78%) of Winners are NOT the LOWEST MORD in their season. (Only 2 Winners (22%) were the LOWEST MORD of their season)

D. 8 / 9 (89%) Winners' are OVER 0.5 MORD

E. 6 / 9 (67%) Winners are OVER 1.0 MORD (including the LOW VISIBILITY winners Danni & Bob)

F. 6 / 9 (67%) of Winners are closer to the midpoint for their season than to 0 (light orange line; highest - lowest / 2)

G. 5 / 9 Winners (55.5%) are lower than the midpoint for their season

H. The RANGE for a Winner's MORD has held for 7 seasons now 0.47 on the low end (Aras) and 1.64 oh the high end (Tom).

I. Out of the 10 edits over all 9 seasons to receive less than 0.5 MORD... only 1 was a winner (12.5%), 4 (37.5%) finished in the F5.

J. Only Once has the Final 1 & 2 players' MORDs been side by side... Aras and Danielle. Also the only time the the 2 Lowest MORDs lined up to the Winner & 2nd place.

K. The LOWEST MORD ever is a tie between Peih-Gee (S15) and Cirie (S16) at 0.40. The HIGHEST MORD Ever belongs to Chicken (S15) at 3.77.

L. VERY EARLY boots (up to 3rd boot) USUALLY have the highest or 2nd highest MORD (or both). (8 / 9 seasons)

M. 8 / 9 seasons the second lowest MORD belongs to a very early Jury member OR the F2 loser AND/OR a major decoy winner (like Eliza S16 or Marcus S17 or Stephen S18)

N. No switches (or a very LATE, pre-merge switch) in a season = a higher MORD winner (Tom, Bob, JT). A very EARLY switch (within the first 3 episodes) = a LOW MORD winner (Aras, Yul). A swap that occurs in the mid-preseason = a Mid-range winner (Danni E4, Earl E6, Todd E5). The only exception to this is Parvati who at 0.64 I would consider to be a LOW MORD winner, but her swap was E5....which means her MORD should have been a bit higher.

O. 4 / 9 winners fall within a small range defined by the Midpoint - Median - Mid-range values. 1 other falls JUST outside of the range (by only a few decimal points Todd .05 )


MORDiff - Analysis S19 to end of E12
Sum difference from middle of road for total season


4.59 - Ben Browning
3.06 - Brett Clouser
2.79 - Kelly Sharbaugh
2.75 - Russell Hantz
------------------------------------- MID-RANGE VALUE (2.3) (highest /2)
------------------------------------- MID-POINT (2.2) (highest - lowest /2)
1.89 - Betsy Bolan
1.89 - Marisa Calihan
1.86 - Shannon Waters
1.74 - Mike Borassi
1.69 - Natalie White
1.40 - John Fincher
------------------------------------- MEDIAN (1.36)
1.32 - Laura Morett
1.17 - Yasmin Giles
1.12 - Monica Padilla
1.00 - Dave Ball
0.90 - Jaison Robinson
0.86 - Russell Swan
0.67 - Mick Trimming
0.65 - Ashley Trainer
0.53 - Elizabeth Kim
0.20 - Erik Cardona

Current midpoint: 2.20
Current mid-range value: 2.30
Current Median: 1.36


According to the MORD TRENDS outlined above...

And taking into consideration that I suspect that this is a F3 season, due to the 12 person merge and the very big jury....

RUSSELL & BRETT
Russell & Brett's MORDs are ridiculously high for a winner. The highest MORD winner we have ever had was Tom, with JT & Bob close on his heels... Just on the MORD value alone, if either Brett or Russell won, that would BEAT OUT Tom's by over a full point!!! I mean...seriously... these MORDs are higher than Susie (S17) & Becky (S13)!!! Even Coach!!! If either of these guys wins, it contradicts observations A, B, G, H, L. The big ones here are A & B.

I speculate that the MORD numbers suggest Brett in at F4 (his number pattern - though high - matches more closely to people like Jenn Lyon S10, Lydia S11, Becky S13, Cassandra S14, Natalie S16).
BRETT = NOT WINNING

Russell's MORD numbers suggest either he is next to go ( 2 off of the Final pair/trio... a la Coach, Shane S12, even Natalie S16) or possibly he is an F2-F3 loser (like similar MORDs Becky, Susie, etc). The concern i have about Russell being the F2-F3 loser spot is that players with those MORD numbers are generally quieter. I would love to have access to the MORD numbers for S8 & S9 to see what Boston Rob's and Twila's numbers were... if you scale the math, StepheME from S11 & Courtney from S15 are probably the most similar... even though she is a 1.41 and 1.52 respectively, the scale for those years are tighter, where this year the scale is really wide.

Regardless, i can't see Russell getting his numbers down far enough to be within range of Tom, Bob & JT. All three winners were criticised for having too much of something (ie positive tone, too MOR and too OTT, too quiet, too popular, etc). Visibility was generally consistent with the exception of Bob's early UTR streak, and JT's back-to-back 5s. Russell has been generally too negative and too visible, something that the other 3 high MORD winners do not have.
RUSSELL = NOT WINNING

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NATALIE
Natalie's MORD at 1.69 is also higher than any other winner... BUT is not out of contention. Tom's final MORD was 1.64. There is the potential that between the numbers from Thursday's episode and the finale it could bring her in line with Tom, JT & Bob (which is exactly what happened with Bob!). Additionally, Observation N would indicate that a higher MORD winner is likely as this season had no swap. On the down side... I have noticed that over the last couple of weeks, Natalie's MORD is not coming down, it has been going up!

Natalie is most similar to other Quiet MORDs like Susie S17, Alexis S16, Cassandra S14, Sundra S13, Lydia S11. I would speculate that like most of them, she will probably be an F2-F3 loser. The MORD does suggest that like Bob, she has a decent chance of winning with her quiet edit, depending on who she is sitting with and whether or not they split the vote. Although from an editing & logic stand point, her early season was abysmal. Natalie winning does not contradict any of the observations with the possible exception of H.... hmmm... that's a surprise. The MORD Numbers suggest to me that Natalie is either our winner or F2 loser.

NATALIE = DECENT TO GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING

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JAISON
Jaison's MORD at 0.90 is the closest to the WINNER'S AVERAGE (1.06). On the downside, no winner has won with their MORD stuck in the 90s (sounds like a pop song...) BUT....depending on Thursday's episode, and the Finale, his MORD has the potential to move into a common zone for a winner (just over 1.0 and as high as 1.20).

Jaison winning contradicts N & O...and potentially E & F. His MORD currently falls in the same range like Yau-man S14, Sugar S17, Erinn S18, Ozzy S13, Earl S14, Danni S11. My feeling is that the MORD says that Jaison is either next to go, or he wins. Since - unlike the first 4 mentioned - Jaison has not done something spectacular to change the game nor has been edited as a fan favorite... i feel like he has more in common with the 2 winners in this range.

JAISON = DECENT to GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING

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MICK
Mick's MORD at 0.67 is on the low end of the MORD winners. He is almost in the same range as Aras, Yul & Parvati. His MORD has the potential to move both up or down. If he moves up the scale too much (ie closer to 1.0) this is actually not good for him. No winner has ever won with a MORD between 0.7 & 0.99. If he drops down the scale, it would bode better for him.

However, Mick winning would contradict observations E, F, N & O (no matter which way his MORD travels). His MORD values are most in common with Taj S18, Marcus S17, Parvati, Jason & Amanda S16, Aaron & Amanda S15, Nick & Sally S12, Rafe & BobbyJon S11. Looking at the 3 LOW MORD winners, I noticed that they all have a pretty tight range for their MORD. Yul's season has an E1 anomaly in Sekou at 3.7.... but the next MORD number is a full point less (Billy at 2.65). Aras and Parv's years are very tight in the range. The top MORD in each year isn't close to 3.0. Taking this into consideration, I feel that while it is not impossible for Mick to win....his win is less in line with the MORD trends that either Natalie or Jaison.

MICK = SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINNING

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So, based on the MORD History Trends, Natalie, Jaison & Mick all have a shot at winning... in that order. All three of them have problems with their edits...

if I look at only the MORD numbers, then Natalie stands the best chance.

If i consider the edit and other edgic information and story... I think Jaison stands the best chance.

Mick is a long shot.

Russell & Brett are out of the running.


ETA: 3 things...
1. spelling

2. I just wanted to note that even though i haven't had time this year to participate in edgic (I've been very very busy...lots going on in my personal life....the dating thing is going well...I'm going to England with him over Christmas, so i guess that means it's going well), renos are getting there, work is busy, curling is great! it's all good....wish i had more time to participate right now. I've missed you too Blake & Oo (and everyone!!)

3. I picked Jaison at the merge, and even though I haven't been doing really indepth stats,i will be sticking with him. I still think that if this truly is the story of why Russell loses and a big part of that is because he thinks "Survivor is easy", then the editors will want to show us that Survivor is not easy to win, and Jaison is the only one who can really fill that bill.

getting real wrote:

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Phoenix, I wish I hadn't wasted my 2000th post in praise of FLF instead of posting that I'm in awe of your mathematical and analytical abilities.

Hope everything turns out exactly as you want it in your personal life.

You're like a breath of fresh air in here!

LOL!

thank you gr.... i'm in awe of your linguistiic abilities.... so i guess we are even!

thanks !!!