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 JaimeCat22 |
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Posts: 380 (12/20/09 06:41 PM) |
fsmdud wrote: How would that salvage anything? You can't exactly make an edgic guideline that says "If a nearly invisible player gets a lot of confessionals in the finale, they are the winner." Well, you can, but it would be pretty stupid. |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 776 (12/20/09 06:41 PM) Registered User |
Jedijake wrote: Jedi - you took this out of context.... It is based on the MORD Analysis only. read the post again. AND... thanks FLF for the "don't shoot the math messenger".... I don't make this up, i am just interpretting the voting data that i have access to the same way i have the last 3 seasons.... I was surprised to see how well Natalie fit into the past patterns. To the point where i re-ran most of the data. So jedi, with that, please read the post again...
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
12/20/09 07:02 PM.
Edited 2 times.
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Phoenix1269 |
ratings and close calls - Episode 13 | ||
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Posts: 777 (12/20/09 06:45 PM) Registered User |
Overall Rankings ?P? - Brett Clouser MOR3 - Jaison Robinson MOR2 - Mick Trimming CPP3 - Natalie White CPN5 - Russell Hantz OTT?? - Shannon Waters Episode Rating Averages From most to least INV=1, UTR=2, CP=3, MOR=4, OTT=5 5.00 - Shannon Waters 4.29 - Brett Clouser 3.79 - Jaison Robinson 3.50 - Natalie White 3.43 - Russell Hantz 3.14 - Mick Trimming Episode Tone Averages From most positive to least positive NN=-2, N=-1, neutral=0, P=1, PP=2 1.000 - Brett Clouser 0.786 - Natalie White 0.500 - Shannon Waters 0.214 - Jaison Robinson 0.071 - Mick Trimming -0.929 - Russell Hantz Episode Visibility Averages From most to least 4.86 - Russell Hantz 3.57 - Shannon Waters 3.21 - Natalie White 2.86 - Jaison Robinson 2.64 - Brett Clouser 2.07 - Mick Trimming Close Calls Brett Clouser INV (0%), UTR (0%), CP (21.4%), MOR (28.6%), OTT (50%) Tone Shannon Waters NN (0%), N (0%), neutral (50%), P (50%), PP (0%)(note: 5 out of 7 neutral votes were for dynamic) Visibility Brett Clouser 1 (0%), 2 (42.9%), 3 (50%), 4 (7.1%), 5 (0%) |
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Joss Wolfe |
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Posts: 1205 (12/20/09 06:49 PM) Registered User |
didnt most people on that season absolutely hate ozzy? |
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SFC |
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Posts: 934 (12/20/09 06:51 PM) Registered user |
Yeah but he was editied to be liked
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AbbyGirl |
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Posts: 91 (12/20/09 06:52 PM) |
Good luck to all with your picks. Many of you were so good posting for your favorite to win that I kept changing my mind and had many doubts about Mick. He
might be the first to go tonight, but I stand by my pick and why I picked him....spoiler free. If it's not him, it should be Jaison since he also is a
pretty good Edgic pick. Natalie and Russell could be the winner, but then Edgic was wrong. Especially if Russ wins! See you all there....
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Phoenix1269 |
MORDiff and other stats | ||
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Posts: 778 (12/20/09 06:54 PM) Registered User |
MOR differential
Sum difference from middle of road for total season 4.59 - Ben Browning 2.83 - Brett Clouser 2.79 - Kelly Sharbaugh 2.78 - Russell Hantz 1.89 - Betsy Bolan 1.89 - Marisa Calihan 1.89 - Shannon Waters 1.74 - Mike Borassi 1.56 - Natalie White 1.40 - John Fincher 1.32 - Laura Morett 1.17 - Yasmin Giles 1.12 - Monica Padilla 1.00 - Dave Ball 0.90 - Jaison Robinson 0.86 - Russell Swan 0.71 - Mick Trimming 0.65 - Ashley Trainer 0.53 - Elizabeth Kim 0.20 - Erik Cardona Current midpoint: 2.20 no one is close Current median value: 1.36 Natalie at .20 above, Jaison at .46 below Breakdowns Season Rating Averages From most to least (INV=1, UTR=2, CP=3, MOR=4, OTT=5) 4.82 Ben Browning 4.42 Mike Borassi 4.27 Shannon Waters 3.64 Jaison Robinson 3.58 Russell Swan 3.51 Russell Hantz 3.37 Betsy Bolan 3.28 Dave Ball 3.25 Mick Trimming 3.22 Ashley Trainer 3.11 Marisa Calihan 3.09 Yasmin Giles 3.01 Elizabeth Kim 2.93 Erik Cardona 2.93 Monica Padilla 2.72 Laura Morett 2.66 Natalie White 2.39 John Fincher 2.05 Kelly Sharbaugh 2.00 Brett Clouser Season Tone Averages From most positive to least (NN=-2, N=-1, neutral=0, P=1, PP=2) 0.974 Betsy Bolan 0.842 Marisa Calihan 0.371 Natalie White 0.162 Jaison Robinson 0.161 Brett Clouser 0.127 Elizabeth Kim 0.114 Mick Trimming 0.043 Russell Swan 0.008 Shannon Waters -0.006 Ashley Trainer -0.044 Erik Cardona -0.093 Kelly Sharbaugh -0.150 Dave Ball -0.154 Monica Padilla -0.182 John Fincher -0.184 Mike Borassi -0.285 Laura Morett -0.512 Yasmin Giles -0.608 Russell Hantz -1.503 Ben Browning Season Visibility Averages From most to least 4.67 Russell Hantz 4.26 Ben Browning 3.95 Marisa Calihan 3.62 Shannon Waters 3.55 Betsy Bolan 3.42 Ashley Trainer 3.24 Russell Swan 3.09 Jaison Robinson 2.92 Erik Cardona 2.87 Mike Borassi 2.66 Mick Trimming 2.61 Elizabeth Kim 2.43 Yasmin Giles 2.43 Dave Ball 2.39 John Fincher 2.25 Laura Morett 2.14 Natalie White 2.10 Monica Padilla 1.33 Brett Clouser 1.26 Kelly Sharbaugh ETA: So...looking at the MORD for E13... Mick went up - closer to zero... not good for his chances Jaison didn't move at all.. also not good Natalie dropped closer to zero... very good. Russell moved father away from zero - not good. Brett dropped lcoser to zero...but he is so far outside the range it doesn;t matter ETA2/3: fixed vis. thanks Avery.
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
12/20/09 11:22 PM.
Edited 3 times.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 779 (12/20/09 06:58 PM) Registered User |
Edgic Losers (Percentage of possible loser votes)
100.00% Brett Clouser 69.23% Jaison Robinson 69.23% Natalie White 53.85% Russell Hantz 38.46% Mick Trimming Edgic Winners (Percentage of winner votes received) 30.77% Russell Hantz 23.08% Jaison Robinson 23.08% Mick Trimming 23.08% Natalie White 0.00% Brett Clouser |
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JaimeCat22 |
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Posts: 381 (12/20/09 06:59 PM) |
ZOMG RUSSELL IS THE OFFICIAL EDGIC PICK!!!
Enjoy the finale, everyone! P.S. - Mick will win. |
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BlakeB717 |
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Posts: 2752 (12/20/09 07:00 PM) Registered user |
Ah, and we lose it in the last episode. Shame, shame, shame.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 780 (12/20/09 07:04 PM) Registered User |
JaimeCat22 wrote:As with all of our stats, the official pick would have to be 55% or more. (as the stats keeper.... them thar's the rules...) edgic never came up with an official pick this year. Enjoy everyone.!!!! |
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AveryC |
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Posts: 145 (12/20/09 07:04 PM) |
The Season Visibility Averages are actually listed alphabetically.
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SFC |
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Posts: 935 (12/20/09 07:06 PM) Registered user |
Natalie and Russell are the only ones to really be focused on in the recap of the ones left.
Mick Jaison and Brett were noted in there introduction but that was it. |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6388 (12/20/09 07:08 PM) Registered User |
The first 15 minutes of Vanuatu lacked any Scout story. I knew then that Scout had no chance. (Yeah, yeah, you knew it long before...)
Waiting to see if the same holds true for Mick. Oh yeah, and Go Mick!!! |
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NickF227 |
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Posts: 12964 (12/20/09 07:12 PM) |
The music Natalie got in that "I'm playing the underdog" confesh <3 <3 <3
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SFC |
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Posts: 936 (12/20/09 07:18 PM) Registered user |
Everyone has a confessional but Mick so far
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Runiger |
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Posts: 16 (12/20/09 07:21 PM) |
Any chance Brett faces the jury and loses, and that is the "surprise" for the casual viewer?
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JaimeCat22 |
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Posts: 383 (12/20/09 07:24 PM) |
The problem with edgic lately is that it is so reactionary.
"ZOMG PLAYER X GOT A CONFESSIONAL! PLAYER X WINS!" "PLAYER Y WAS FOCUSED ON MORE IN THE RECAP! PLAYER Y WINS!" "PLAYER Z HAD ONE BAD EPISODE! PLAYER Z CANNOT POSSIBLY WIN!" Edgic used to be about not being fooled by late game misdirection, but obviously that has gone out the window. It shows a complete lack of confidence in the edgic guidelines and basically means no one has any idea what is going on and just follows whatever way the wind is blowing. Or as Oowatanite said: Shut this thing down. Edgic has run its course. |
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Joss Wolfe |
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Posts: 1206 (12/20/09 07:30 PM) Registered User |
WTF!? 60 minutes preempting Survivor!? This is a new low!
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wallduck |
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Posts: 575 (12/20/09 07:31 PM) Registered User |
fat little fingers wrote:Sorry, but there is nothing "mathematical" about that analysis. It's completely illogical, and mathematics is 99% logic. Phoenix seems to think that edgic is based in some sort of consistency in the votes cast at the voting site. It's not. Edgic is based on the idea that there is some consistency in Survivor editing. The patterns of the voting of the motley crew who vote at the voting site indicates something about the voters, but it has nothing to do with edgic. |
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