Family Final Four in Survivor Speculation Forum

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Family Final Four

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Lady V		#1261	[-]
Posts: 762 (12/10/09 11:52 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of all the things I've lost, I miss my ads the most. Right! Remove this ad I'm getting on a ship tomorrow (!) and I'm not sure I'll be able to watch next week or the finale until the 21st, but I am hoping!! If I do, I'll be able to post in the same time zone as most of you for the first time! Yay!! If I can't watch until the 21st, I dearly hope someone will be here that long after the finale, so I am not talking to myself!! :) FYI, post 1161 has a description of each of the FF4 categories. ~~~ REPOST OF FF4 HYPOTHESES ~~~ 1) The F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids. (It has 14 - now 15 - of 19 seasons) RIGHT (if you are me, and see Shambo as an M!) 2) F4 will not contain two people with the same role. (It has not 13 of 18) A son will have to go before F4. 3) There will not be 2 Fs or 2Ms in the F6 (There has not been in 17 of 19). (In the odd situation where there are two Ms or two Fs, one will be a failed M or F.) RIGHT! 4) The F2 will not be two dads nor two moms. (The F2 has never been two dads nor two moms.) RIGHT! 5) The F2 generally will not be two kids. (The F2 have been two kids only 5 of 18) However, in the rare case the F2 is two kids, at least one will be an "unusual" child with strong "adult" (leader) tendencies. We will see. 6) The winner will not be E. (The winner has never been an E.) We will see. 7) If a parent is in the F2 with a non-parent, the parent will win. (7 times parent-nonparent has been in F2; 6 times the parent has won) We will see. **AND TWO NON-FF4 HYPOTHESES, BUT NONETHELESS, INTERESTING:** * At F4, the second most likeable has the best chance; the least likeable can't win (Kirblar's observation). And who's the least likable, hm? * The most popular person going into the F3 has NEVER WON the Final IC (Craig's observation). And who will that be? And will we have a tribal at F4 or F3?
MissScamper		#1262	[-]
Posts: 862 (12/11/09 11:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I wrote a post last week, but Yuku ate it, and I didn't have time to re-write it. More and more I see signs of F-hood in Russell. Yes, he's a bad father, but I think his F-ness is most dominant. Comparing him to Es in other seasons, has an E ever been the true leader of the tribe? Big Tom, who to me is the epitome of the Eccentric, was a sidekick, not even Assistant Coach to Lex. Twila was a workhorse for her tribe, but not the leader. Lil wasn't anywhere near the leader. Yau-Man? No, not a leader. Coach was an E who wanted to be the leader and certainly considered himself the leader of his tribe, but it turned out JT was the true leader. Can't think of any other Es. Have I missed an E who was a true leader of the tribe? If Brett fails to win immunity next week, he's the obvious bootee. But if he goes on an immunity streak and wins again next week, which of the other 2 sons (Jaison and Mick) would get the boot?
MissScamper		#1263	[-]
Posts: 862 (12/11/09 11:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Dang Yuku double post.
birdlady		#1264	[-]
Posts: 3102 (12/11/09 11:29 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	lol Making up for the one it ate... The most popular person going into the F3 has NEVER WON the Final IC (Craig's observation). And who will that be? And will we have a tribal at F4 or F3? I hadn't heard this one before. "Popular" how? With viewers, jury, players remaining in the game? I'm not sure I'd characterize any of the ones left this season as "popular", but I definitely would have said JT was well-liked across the board, so I guess I'm not following the concept... We've got something like: weak F/S - Mick F/anti-M/E - Russell D - Natalie S - Brett, Jaison E/M - Shambo All of the unequivocable kids are pretty good at their role, and seem to get along with each other well enough. If FoaFoa can't get at Brett because he wins immunity, I'd tend to say one of the blurry-roled people would go.
bonzaibeach		#1265	[-]
Posts: 2 (12/11/09 11:32 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think Russell is an Eccentric Father and Shambo is an Eccentric Mother, and their eccentricities are what makes the family work. The daughter is Natalie and the sons are Mick & Jaison. So which son will go? Personally, I hope it is Mick. Jaison has done his fair share of helping the family stay together by buying the advantage, and winning back to back immunities, and it just feels like Mick is along for the ride. Also, Mick was the first one shown to be thinking about slaughtering dear old Dad. That other guy out there, he is really just like a stray dog that has been hanging around the yard. Somebody fed him and now he won't leave. Last Edited By: bonzaibeach 12/11/09 12:57 PM. Edited 1 times.
Tyran Amiros		#1266	[-]
Posts: 255 (12/11/09 08:22 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mick hasn't had a lot of screentime since I started watching this season, but one thing I really noticed first in the recap and again last night was the contrast in word choice between Mick and Jaison. Mick uses "we" and Jaison uses "I" many times when they're ruminating about the future. Someone in another thread (sorry I can't remember who!) mentioned that Mick's game is often about the tribe, about Foa Foa, while Jaison's has been personal struggles against particular antagonists--Ben, Erik, now Brett. From a story arc perspective, that is interesting in one light (Jaison's edit parallels other "growth" stories like Stephen and Cirie), but from a FF4 perspective, it really highlights the Father/Son distinction. Mick is the Father, thinking not only of himself but in a broader way about his tribe, while Jaison is primarily concerned with his own preservation. I thought of the papaya scene in the recap on this point as well, though there the contrast is between Mick--again with the provider role and the "we"--versus Russell--and un-Fatherlike selfishness and "I". Russell can't be an F to me because he's not a leader other than as a function of strategy. We don't see him provide or even care about the other people on the tribe--they are his tools to win a million bucks. Compare when Tom got mad at Katie to when Russell got mad at Natalie and Jaison--Russell doesn't inspire the same kind of fear. I don't see the same kind of emotional bonds. We also saw more of Shambo in the Mother role in the last two episodes with the cooking and emotional game playing. She may not be as traditional an M as Laura was or previous Ms, but she certainly fits that role well enough for Aiga. Though I don't agree with Monica that Shambo would get any votes if she's in front of the jury, if Monica believes what she told Russell, it certainly might point that FF4 rule that if a parent faces the jury, he/she tends to win. My conclusion? I agree with LadyV that we have a classic FF6 F-Mick M-Shambo E-Russell (Uncle) S-Jaison, Brett D-Natalie. I also think we should distinguish "odd" behavior from what makes someone "Eccentric", but maybe that would be a better discussion for the off-season.
BlakeB717		#1267	[-]
Posts: 2557 (12/11/09 08:26 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Interesting assessment. JT also almost always used "we" or "me and Stephen", where Stephen used "I" a lot in his confessionals.
Olmec Donald		#1268	[-]
Posts: 1226 (12/17/09 08:29 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	birdlady wrote: The most popular person going into the F3 has NEVER WON the Final IC (Craig's observation). And who will that be? And will we have a tribal at F4 or F3? I hadn't heard this one before. "Popular" how? With viewers, jury, players remaining in the game? I'm not sure I'd characterize any of the ones left this season as "popular", but I definitely would have said JT was well-liked across the board, so I guess I'm not following the concept... All of the unequivocable kids are pretty good at their role, and seem to get along with each other well enough. If FoaFoa can't get at Brett because he wins immunity, I'd tend to say one of the blurry-roled people would go. Absolutely correct with the second statement! Interesting that the M went this week, though if not for the IC one of the S's would have gone and there'd be a traditional FF4. I'm predicting both sons are booted next weeks leaving a F, E and D before the jury. Father Mick to take it like F's usually do. Popularity was determined by the CBS polls when they were still around. This rule is redundant now due to the end of CBS popularity polls. Last Edited By: Olmec Donald 12/17/09 08:33 PM. Edited 1 times.
MissScamper		#1269	[-]
Posts: 864 (12/17/09 10:20 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	If Brett wins immunity again, it's the perfect opportunity for Jaison, Mick and Brett to take out Russell. Would they do it? Mick and Jaison have been toying with the idea for a while now. The HII is no longer valid. Russell could be blindsided, if no one tells Natalie. Oh my heck, wouldn't that be glorious??? FF4 suggests that this is a strong possibility. We've had such a hard time labeling Shambo and Russell, which usually means that person is doomed to head over to Loser Lodge sooner or later. Now Shambo's gone, can Russell be far behind her??? Or can his force of personality prevent a blindsiding?
Kitty Pryde1		#1270	[-]
Posts: 11081 (12/18/09 01:00 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of all the things I've lost, I miss my ads the most. Right! Remove this ad Why does Mick keep getting identified as a father? Aside from the election in the first episode, based on first impressions only, what has he done to be an F?
MissScamper		#1271	[-]
Posts: 865 (12/18/09 10:59 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I don't know, Kitty. I've always seen Mick more as an Eldest Son rather than a Father.
BlakeB717		#1272	[-]
Posts: 2710 (12/18/09 11:09 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Either or, both are equally as significant (JT won as Eldest Son)
MissScamper		#1273	[-]
Posts: 866 (12/19/09 09:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Eldest Son isn't the same as a Father. FF4 says if a parent is in the FF4 with an E or an assortment of children, the parent is most likely to win. Our F5: Russell - Eccentric father (more of an E than an F) Mick - Eldest S/some people see him as an F Jaison - S Brett - S Natalie - D Eccentrics have never won Survivor--not once in 18 seasons. If Russell is more of an E than an F, then I don't think he wins. If he's more of an F than an E, then if he's in the finals he will win.
Tyran Amiros		#1274	[-]
Posts: 256 (12/19/09 03:36 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	On Mick being F (usual disclaimer that I haven't seen every episode): To me, the role of F isn't leadership per se, but rather provision (looking back in this thread I made this same argument with respect to Bob in Gabon). The Father ranks the preservation of the tribe above himself . They are concerned with bringing protection and order through respect and trust. Prototypical Fathers like Terry from EI and Bob from Gabon earn respect through their actions that benefit the entire tribe. I don't think it's a conincidence that Fs are most likely to be removed for medical reasons--to earn respect they push themselves past a safe point. Now, I'd certainly include Russell S. in the prototypical Father category. Mick, on the other hand, is certainly not an ideal type. He shied away from strategic leadership, leaving that to creepy Eccentric Uncle Russell (whose game is almost entirely individual). But this has happened before. In Exile Island, Casaya's F Bruce had little strategic leadership. Bob from Gabon as well, even though some argued that his lack of strategic dominance made him E instead. However, I think the basic point stands--while the Father often tends toward being leader of the alliance, circumstances can clearly dictate otherwise: it could be a D like Parvati, an S like Todd, or even an E like Russell H. The papaya scene in the recap spoke volumes to me. Here we contrasted Russell and Mick, with Russell saying he's going to keep the papayas secret to Mick narrating a scene with the most of the tribe eating together. Also in the recap, we have Russell giving Mick explicit credit (however derogatory) for organizing the camp, and even though Russell doesn't like it, he's never shown to take over that role. And in this last episode, we saw Mick and Jaison arguing for loyalty over strategy. It's true that I missed a lot of the stuff that really shows a person as F because that happens at the beginning of the game in the setting up camp stage (by now it's all rote). However, I do think that what I've seen points to Mick as the respected provider and Russell as a untrustworthy schemer--Mick as F and Russell as E.
Olmec Donald		#1275	[-]
Posts: 1232 (12/20/09 08:16 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Okay, who wins now? Father or daughter? FF4 logic suggests the F will win, but I have a hard time seeing the jury vote for Mick over Natalie.
Trixiego		#1276	[-]
Posts: 19089 (12/21/09 09:12 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Nice read as always
Tyran Amiros		#1277	[-]
Posts: 257 (12/21/09 10:10 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Well, the clear D beat the maybe-F and the E for the win! I don't know what that means for our seventh guideline. Don't think we should dismiss it, but I'm thinking maybe that clear roles tend to beat maybe roles? Mick used the traditional F approach to the jury and it totally backfired. I think it's interesting that Nat's strategy mirrors other Ds like Parvati and Danni--social game over strategic game. This season may be really bad for Edgic, but it's been good for FF4. Over the off game I want to write a post postulating how each type wins and why Es always lose.
Kitty Pryde1		#1278	[-]
Posts: 11100 (12/21/09 11:52 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Mick was NEVER an F. Jesus Christ, why do people keep saying he was? He was a clear S, with Russell as the F/E.
Olmec Donald		#1279	[-]
Posts: 1277 (12/21/09 10:50 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Well, at any rate, a parent-eccentric hybrid (Kathy V, Russell H) simply cannot win.
Lady V	categories	#1280	[-]
Posts: 763 (12/23/09 02:13 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of all the things I've lost, I miss my ads the most. Right! Remove this ad Just got home and watched the finale! Time to clarify categories again... From 4/14/04, with notes for this season: E = The Es are obvious. You could think of them as OTT in edgic in a way--except that their eccentricity colors everything about them. These people are just...how do I say this?...odd. A little weird. If there was a question about a person being an E or something else, they are probably something else. NOTE: This is Evil Russell, only he was VERY weird. Anyone called "evil" is an E. F = Father. Someone who is concerned with the physical protection of the others on the tribe (protection from the elements, starvation, dehydration, exhaustion); action-oriented; executes plans; goes out and does; tries to ensure safety (of others). Masculine personality (we all have both masc and fem within us; masc personalities display more masc than fem traits in their behavior). NOTE 12/09: Nothing about leadership here. We might add "refers to 'we' a lot," because, as we've noted more than once, Ms and Fs use "we" an awful lot. Fs can be weak or strong. With weak Fs of the past, someone else has actually led the tribes, as Tyran Amiros noted (EXCELLENT posts, Tyran Amiros!!). M = Mother. Someone who is concerned with nurturing others on the tribe, preparing food, tending camp, responding with feeling to crises. Feminine personality (see above--one day I'm sure we'll see a male mother and female father). NOTE: As with Fs and leadership, Ms may not always be accepted as such (e.g., Shambo, Betsy). S = Son. Someone who is concerned with ensuring self is treated as an adult, competitive with father figures, friendly with mother figures, struggling to prove competence. NOTE: I think this one is pretty clear cut. Mick was clearly not any of these things. D = Daughter. Someone who is concerned with tribal harmony, fun, generally pleasant. Otherwise, can be difficult category to define--One Who is None of the Others. NOTE: I think Ds often align with Fs?--this season, yes, but this seems to be an echo. M,F,E=These roles cannot be provided harmoniously in a small group by more than one person, which is probably why, in the past, F6 has been most likely to be M, one E, one F, and some kids... And Ss and Ds are made nervous out there on their own (especially after so many weeks), which may be why they always have an M and F around.

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