Here's the deal. A lot of people are running around talking about how Natalie played better because she "didn't have to" dirty her hands to
get to the final 3. The problem with that argument is that Russell would have won without Natalie, and Natalie would not have won without Russell.
Natalie was a number, the same as Mick and Jaison. It just so happened that the three of them were either the least aware of Russell's tactics or the most willing to ride his coattails. You can replace Natalie with anyone on Foa Foa post-merge and nothing changes, but if you replace Russell Foa Foa would have been Pagong'd. What does it matter, you say? Natalie won right? Well, she was the winner this season, but saying, in any way, that her game was superior to Russell's is absurd. Let's try to quantify their games in the only way that makes sense: predicting their average placings throughout multiple seasons.
Natalie rode coattails the same as a huge amount of players in the past. We have to assume she's better than average at it, so we'll give her an edge. Being young, not incredibly weak, pretty, and not one to ruffle feathers, she could expect to get past the first couple tribal boots most of the time. In an 18-person season, let's say she gets a bye past 4. What happens after is largely dependent on WHO she attaches herself to. Because she is not going to be seen as much of a threat and loyal, she is a good candidate to drag to the F3. As such, she just has get in with the tribe leader and hope their tribe takes numbers to the merge and she can coast to F3 somewhat regularly, assuming the tribe sticks together.
So half the time her tribe merges with numbers. The chance of someone flipping when her tribe has numbers within 3 cycles is fairly high, maybe 30%? Of course it depends on the relationships created previously. She most likely will not flip with anyone who does, and her ability to recover from one is pretty low. She would be one of the last targets but she is an easy F4-6 boot target. Her slipping into the F3 after a betrayal is probably her only way to winning on most seasons, and it's probably like 20% chance to happen. We'll give her a ~3% (.3*.2*.2(chance jury awards her play)) to win the game this way. If the enemy tribe is pagong'd, she's left with like 6 tribemates and is probably seen as a good goat. I'd say her chance to F3 after a Pagong is 60%. Juries generally don't reward that style of play so she'll lose most of the time. I think 10% winrate is pretty accurate in the case of a F3 made up of the dominating figure, her, and some mediocre third wheel. 9% now to win when her tribe merges with numbers.
The other half, her tribe loses more and they go in with less numbers. On the way there, she's an easy target for a third/fourth boot premerge, I'd say 20% to go before the merge when her tribe loses. So they merge down numbers and of course it's up to who she's riding to get them out of it. Again if the numbers are close a flip before she's pagong'd isn't too unlikely at 30%, however a flip would only happen if the power players don't go early, which means they could be with her in the F3 and win outright. She's left out in the cold if the 2nd tier guy on her tribe flips and she gets booted easily in F4-8. I would say that of the 30% that she makes the F3 a third of the time and wins very rarely via a jury bitter at the flipper and not wanting to reward the person who got them to flip, so like 3% to win in this way. With no flip early she basically has it upon herself to weasel into the F3 for a potential win. We've seen very little gameplay from her to suggest she's capable of this. 10% she F3's vs. a tribe willing to pagong her tribe, but I think she'd win a good amount if she does, for example, win a couple IC's at the end. 5%? Anyway, in the end she has a ~6% to win if her tribe goes in outmanned.
Basically, she can't with without three of: A bitter jury, a good captain who fucks up at FTC, a couple of dunces to F4 with to take out the mastermind, a miracle and happening to pick the right person to hide behind. She wins an average of 7.5% of games she plays, certainly better than worse leeches.
Russell, on the other hand, has a 95% chance to win any season and only loses when a stupid and bitter jury who cost itself the game is voting. I defy you to argue with pure mathematics and science. But srsly if you think Natalie is even close to as able to put up wins as Russell you're dumb.
tldr; russell got RAWBED and no Natalie isn't going to fuck you if you try to legitimize her win. WORSET EINNER EVER
Natalie was a number, the same as Mick and Jaison. It just so happened that the three of them were either the least aware of Russell's tactics or the most willing to ride his coattails. You can replace Natalie with anyone on Foa Foa post-merge and nothing changes, but if you replace Russell Foa Foa would have been Pagong'd. What does it matter, you say? Natalie won right? Well, she was the winner this season, but saying, in any way, that her game was superior to Russell's is absurd. Let's try to quantify their games in the only way that makes sense: predicting their average placings throughout multiple seasons.
Natalie rode coattails the same as a huge amount of players in the past. We have to assume she's better than average at it, so we'll give her an edge. Being young, not incredibly weak, pretty, and not one to ruffle feathers, she could expect to get past the first couple tribal boots most of the time. In an 18-person season, let's say she gets a bye past 4. What happens after is largely dependent on WHO she attaches herself to. Because she is not going to be seen as much of a threat and loyal, she is a good candidate to drag to the F3. As such, she just has get in with the tribe leader and hope their tribe takes numbers to the merge and she can coast to F3 somewhat regularly, assuming the tribe sticks together.
So half the time her tribe merges with numbers. The chance of someone flipping when her tribe has numbers within 3 cycles is fairly high, maybe 30%? Of course it depends on the relationships created previously. She most likely will not flip with anyone who does, and her ability to recover from one is pretty low. She would be one of the last targets but she is an easy F4-6 boot target. Her slipping into the F3 after a betrayal is probably her only way to winning on most seasons, and it's probably like 20% chance to happen. We'll give her a ~3% (.3*.2*.2(chance jury awards her play)) to win the game this way. If the enemy tribe is pagong'd, she's left with like 6 tribemates and is probably seen as a good goat. I'd say her chance to F3 after a Pagong is 60%. Juries generally don't reward that style of play so she'll lose most of the time. I think 10% winrate is pretty accurate in the case of a F3 made up of the dominating figure, her, and some mediocre third wheel. 9% now to win when her tribe merges with numbers.
The other half, her tribe loses more and they go in with less numbers. On the way there, she's an easy target for a third/fourth boot premerge, I'd say 20% to go before the merge when her tribe loses. So they merge down numbers and of course it's up to who she's riding to get them out of it. Again if the numbers are close a flip before she's pagong'd isn't too unlikely at 30%, however a flip would only happen if the power players don't go early, which means they could be with her in the F3 and win outright. She's left out in the cold if the 2nd tier guy on her tribe flips and she gets booted easily in F4-8. I would say that of the 30% that she makes the F3 a third of the time and wins very rarely via a jury bitter at the flipper and not wanting to reward the person who got them to flip, so like 3% to win in this way. With no flip early she basically has it upon herself to weasel into the F3 for a potential win. We've seen very little gameplay from her to suggest she's capable of this. 10% she F3's vs. a tribe willing to pagong her tribe, but I think she'd win a good amount if she does, for example, win a couple IC's at the end. 5%? Anyway, in the end she has a ~6% to win if her tribe goes in outmanned.
Basically, she can't with without three of: A bitter jury, a good captain who fucks up at FTC, a couple of dunces to F4 with to take out the mastermind, a miracle and happening to pick the right person to hide behind. She wins an average of 7.5% of games she plays, certainly better than worse leeches.
Russell, on the other hand, has a 95% chance to win any season and only loses when a stupid and bitter jury who cost itself the game is voting. I defy you to argue with pure mathematics and science. But srsly if you think Natalie is even close to as able to put up wins as Russell you're dumb.
tldr; russell got RAWBED and no Natalie isn't going to fuck you if you try to legitimize her win. WORSET EINNER EVER
