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TheLurkerSpeaks wrote:

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Russell's maneuvers are overrated. He was certainly bold and brash and led the way for his alliance, but a look at his maneuvers shows that they weren't all that significant.

Russell's game started early. People who play as hard as he did usually flame out. People peg them as dangerous schemers and eliminate them. Russell was on a tribe with several solid, level-headed folks. He managed to line them up for the exit right away and to keep the mentally weaker folks who he could push around.

I think that's a moment when you could really question Natalie's game. She lined up with the aggressive schemer and helped eliminate the nice, solid people, even though she is basically one of the latter herself. There's a favorable logic to that when you consider the end game (you can beat the goat, but it's harder to beat respected people), but it's probably easier to make the end-game by allying with people you can actually trust. Instead, she lined up with someone using game tactics that often don't work for extended periods in the game.

You're right in crediting the first big post-merge move against Erik to Natalie. It's a marvelous example of delicate social skills and what they can do for you.

It's interesting how it all played out, though. In the interview you just linked to, Natalie admitted that she purposefully avoided taking credit for the Erik boot because she was unsure how much the jury had figured out about it. But the jury did know, and it's sort of obvious that they would know, right? How does that usually work out for a finalist in front of the jury? Making a big power move that got someone put on the jury, but shying away from admitting it, when it turns out they actually clearly know. It's the kind of thing that can get you pegged as phony in your "nice girl" act and can be a real turning point for a jury.

I'm not sure sure about your point regarding the idol, though. Russell showed idols to people at several points in the game. Sometimes it was in his interests, sometimes not. In either case, it gave him a certain aura of power in the game -- like, don't go up against me, I have resources and I use them. You never know what I have or don't have. I'm not a safe target. He chose a great moment to put the second idol around his neck at tribal council. It gave the notion of going after him a certain air of futility. It was a way of saying "you can't get me anymore" without ever even having to play the idol. Telling them he was taking it home as a soveneir was icing on the cake. Yes, it was unnecessarily arrogant, but it also stated clearly "I'm actually running this game, and I'm doing it so dominantly that I can choose not to even use the resources I have."

In the next vote following Erik, I disagree that Russ finding and playing the idol "wasn't particularly strong". It was unprecedented to find it. I think he said on his interview that it took 9 hours of searching. He looked at every object in an area before considering it "clear" and moving on. It's the kind of way-over-the-top effort in game advancement that tends to draw admiration from fellow players. It totally turned the game, preventing a Foa pagonging. Mick and Jaison were probably going down, in the absence of that move. Natalie may have too, but she had social skills and inroads that might have allowed her to recover.

For the next vote against Laura, you're right that John didn't fully believe Russell that he would eliminate a Foa next. But you're also right that John's move was illogical. He's a smart guy who made a bad move. Russ having that conversation with him and giving him one more future scenario to envision probably helped keep him in that fuzzy mindset that led to a critical bad choice for him (and critical win for the Foas).

On the whole, I peg Russ as one of the best schemers in the game. I don't like the guy, by any stretch. But Survivor is a game that rewards a lot of unpleasant stuff, so skill in the game can look pretty unpleasant.