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beatles20147 wrote:

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ilovekelly752 wrote:

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Getting out Jerri was mainly Rob, and getting out Erik was just as important anyway

Agreed on both of these--but let's be real here: Galu was dysfunctional at best; I'd have been shocked if a Galu didn't leave first at the merge. That's the downside of dominating pre-merge; too many factions pop up that can't be taken care of until it's one tribe, so it allows you to let your guard down and you're not concerned about losing a member or two. I'm not denying the importance of the Erik boot, but as you could tell from John and Erik and everyone else wanting to get rid of Monica, it wasn't like a Foa Foa was leaving before Natalie opened her mouth.

Amber didn't have the strategic mind that Natalie did. Amber never thought to go to Alicia, Big Tom, or Shii Ann, and make a side deal in case Rob was voted out, or get along with them personally to get their votes. She also made it clear that she was not leaving Rob, so whenever someone targetted Rob, they targeted Rob and Amber

Er, didn't Natalie make it clear that she would literally vote however Russell told her to vote? Other than Jaison and Erik, I can't think of any mutual decision they made together. The only problem people had with Amber was her association with Rob; I don't think anyone (besides maybe Kathy, who seemed to have a weird fixation on Rob) had an issue with her as a person. Yes, maybe being so tight with him put her at risk for votes the nights Lex and Kathy were booted--but she knew she wouldn't go anywhere and more importantly--she wanted to go to the final two with Rob! Why would she want to make side deals that she would have to betray? That's exactly what Rob did and it was a huge factor in why he lost.

Natalie left it more open, to the point that she had Russell thinking she was 100% loyal to him, (which she was) but still gave suspicion that she might've been open to flip.

I'm not sure exactly what you're referring to here--I know Russell alluded to being worried about Mick flipping, but I can't remember an instance of doubt with Natalie. Either way, you're contradicting yourself. How could Russell think she was 100% loyal yet be suspicious that she'd be open to flipping?

Three of Ambers four votes were because they were mad at Rob. At least five of Natalie's votes were from getting along with them, and from them actually wanting to vote for her, rather than against her opponent.

The difference is Amber knew she would be the beneficiary of anti-Rob votes. Natalie seemed to think Russell would win at the end (although that could very well have been editing, and I don't think she's stupid enough to not realize that the jury's animosity towards him would work in her favor).

Based on gameplay, my ranking:
1. Tina
2. Tom
3. Richard
4. Brian
5. Yul
6. Danni
7. Todd
8. Chris
9. Vecepia
10. Parvati
11. Amber
12. Earl
13. JT
14. Jenna
15. Ethan
16. Bob
17. Aras
18. Sandra
19. Natalie - Honestly, I would have a hard time putting anyone in the Samoa F3 much higher than last place. But all 19 of them still won a million dollars and I didn't so it really doesn't matter, does it?

Based on how much I like them:
1. Tom
2. Sandra
3. Richard
4. Ethan
5. Chris [the first five are the only ones I really like a lot]
6. Bob
7. Yul
8. Earl
9. Danni
10. Amber
11. Tina
12. Brian
13. Natalie
14. Aras
15. Vecepia
16. Todd
17. JT
18. Jenna
19. Parvati

Archibald C wrote:

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The reason I think Natalie was a better winner than Amber is because she was playing Russell, while I don't think that Amber was playing Rob. She (Natalie) has said that her telling Russell "Oh you're the best, you'll totally beat us all, I'm happy with third place" was her ploy to inflate his ego to massive proportions, which totally worked. I'm starting to wonder now if Natalie is the only who ended up being Russell's downfall, because she was constantly chiming in his ear "You're the best". Natalie and Amber did play very similar games, but I think Natalie was a much more strategic player than Amber was.

chapera rocks wrote:

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I'm not saying Amber didn't play a great strategic game, because she did. My argument is that Natalie played better. Natalie turned a whole tribe against one of their own members, which was arguably the biggest move in the game, because as Shambo said, it was what broke Galu apart. Amber may have had an ear in Kathy, but if Rob didn't make that deal with Lex, I have a hard time believing it still would've happened. Lex even talked about how heavily he relied on Rob's deal.

Lex wanted to vote out Amber, but was unsure. He let Kathy make the decision. Kathy decided to keep Amber based on the talk she and Amber had.Yes, Amber used Boston Rob as leverage, saying her and Rob would take Lex/Kathy/Tom to the final 5 and Shii to final 6. But it's called using your cards. Amber convinced Kathy, not Rob. This has been confirmed by Lex and Kathy as the events that went down.

Jenna wanted to take Rob to the final two, so she was never going to turn on him. She even said that if she would've won immunity, she would've voted Amber out. That's another example of Amber relying on Rob to win if she didn't. It's one thing to share information with somebody, but if you don't make emotional connections or personal friendships, it's a lot easier for them to want to turn against you. Amber made some friendships, but turned people off like Kathy, and only got the votes of Lex and Tom out of bitterness.

Kathy was bitter because Amber played her. And how is Amber getting votes from Tom and Lex any different than Natalie getting anti-Russell votes (which she DID get. She earned them over Mick, but that's not hard to do). Natalie and Amber both played a great social game, better than their partners. Rob threw his game away for Amber. Jenna was voting out Amber because Amber was a bigger threat, not because they didn't have a connection. She knew she could beat Rob, which is why she wasn't going to vote him out, which is why Amber was keeping Rob too. Jenna has said in confessionals that after Rob talked to her, it made her want to vote him out more because he was arrogant. Amber kept her grounded.

Rob and Amber did make decisions together, but look at when they were deciding between going with Kathy and Lex to the end, or going with Rupert and Jenna to the end. That's the only time I can think that they really disagreed, and Rob got what he wanted. He didn't blow his game to help out Amber, he said that he wanted to win multiple times. He blew his game unintentionally, and all on his own, where Natalie had a hand in boosting Russell's ego, letting him think she would do whatever he wanted, and telling him that he had all the votes in the end. All of that was contributing to why Russell was so willing to go the end with Natalie.

You're basing 39 days on one conversation? Are you fucking serious? How about Natalie saying Russell had two votes because she'd vote however he wanted? That's pretty damning. And Amber never said she wanted to keep Tom over Rupert/Jenna. Rob blew his game to try and save Amber. He made unnecessary deals to save which bit him in the ass; I can't say Russell would put himself on the line for Natalie that way.

Amber throwing competitions possibly would've gotten her sent home if it weren't for Rob. Rob was targetted in the final 5, but he won immunity, so who do you think would've been out if Rob hadn't talked Big Tom into sticking to the deal he made with him? Even if Rob didn't win immunity and he was targeted, and went home, who did you think was next if she didn't win? Amber and Natalie both put targets on their ally, but Natalie had a back up plan. What good is having your ally targeted if you think you're going to be next?

This is actually a fair point, but to Amber, Rob was the biggest and only target. Jenna and Rupert weren't going to target her if it meant Rob was still in the game, he'd be too pissed off. At final 5, Rob was the target, Amber never was.

Amber's immunity win was only critical because Rob made it that way. He was the main one convincing Jenna to vote out Rupert, so they both had at least an equal part in the final 4. If you're going to say Russell's win was critical for Natalie, then you could just as easily say Rob's final 3 win was critical for Amber. The only difference is that if Brett won, Natalie still had that close relationship with Brett to take her through, and if Jenna won, Amber would've been out.

Nope, Jenna said that Rob made her want to vote him out. And Amber outlasted Jenna, so no, Rob's win wasn't crucial to her, she could have done it herself. And if Brett made it to the end, Natalie was losing.

Natalie didn't rely that heavily on Russell, she just let him make the moves so he would be targetted, but when he wouldn't make the moves, she did, like with getting Erik out. The difference between Natalie relying on Russell and Amber relying on Rob is that Natalie relying on Russell was just plan A. Amber relying on Rob was her only plan.

Why, because you say so? We've never heard Natalie's "plan B" and how do you know Amber had no back-up plan? That makes no sense, we were never led to believe that. Amber had enough social connections to have a chance had Rob been knocked out.

When did Lex and Kathy say that Amber convinced them? I remember there was an argument about this a while ago, but I don't think anyone found any proof.

I don't think Tom or Lex wanted to vote for Amber as much as against Rob. At least five people (Brett, Kelly, Laura, Erik, Monica) were happy to write to down Natalie's name as the winner. Even if Dave and Jaison were just voting against Russell, what made them choose Natalie over Mick?

Does it really matter why Jenna wanted to vote Amber out? Jenna knew who she could beat in the end, and she wasn't going to risk that because she was mad at him. Nobody wanted to vote Natalie out. The only time they did vote for her was when they knew she would be immune after a tie vote.

I never said Amber wanted to keep Tom. I said she wanted to keep Lex and Kathy. That was the only time they disagreed, and Rob got what he wanted. He wasn't throwing away his game by making deals to keep her. He was doing what he could to keep the one person he needed to the end. You're right about Russell not doing that for Natalie, but that's why she took things into her own hands. It was part of her strategy to do what he wanted her to do as long as it was in her best interest, but she was ready for whateer he was or wasn't doing that was not in her best interest. When Jaison was going home and Russell wasn't doing anything about it, she got Erik set home. When Russell was Galu's target to go home, Natalie had a deal with the girls so that she could've gone to the end with them if Russell did go home. She talked about this in a video on cbs.com.

Rob was the target ahead of Amber, but if one of the other players was able to turn people against them, and Rob had immunity, it would be against Amber. That's why Lex voted for Amber in the top 9 instead of Rob, because Rob had immunity. By Natalie leaving it open as to whether or not she was really that loyal to Russell, she was never targeted to go home, other than the one where they knew she would've been immune after the tie vote.

Jenna might've wanted to vote Rob out for personal reasons, but she did listen to the logic he was telling her, and she based her vote for Rupert on that. She chose logic over personal feelings, which is also why she said she would've taken Rob to the end. Also, there's no way to know what would've happened if Rob didn't convince her to vote out Rupert. If either Rob or Jenna went home due to a rock in the final 4, Rupert could've won and voted Amber out at 3, but Rob stopped that from happening. If Amber had it her way, she wouldn't have even been there with Jenna, and Lex and Kathy could easily have gotten her out at 3 or 4, or even turned on her before then.

Amber may have had personal connections to keep herself in the game, but so did Natalie. The difference is that Natalie had already set it up for herself ahead of time. She talked about her deal with Kelly, Laura, and Monica on cbs.com, and she also said she was working on Dave. Like I said, Amber is good, but I think Natalie had a much more strategic mind, and played a better social game. She even won with a final 3. If Amber had Jenna in the final 3 at FTC, she wouldn't have been able to rely on bitterness, and Lex, Tom, Rupert, and Alicia would've all voted for Jenna.