KL ranks Top 19 Survivor winners' blunders (#9 UP! Pg 9) in Clubs that Suck. No, Really. Forum

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KL ranks Top 19 Survivor winners' blunders (#9 UP! Pg 9)

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unduli clone		#61	[-]
Posts: 8127 (12/27/09 12:53 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of all the things I've lost, I miss my ads the most. Right! Remove this ad PADME
King Lord		#62	[-]
Posts: 353 (12/27/09 12:54 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Wow, a lot of good discussion going down. Clubs never fails to impress. Next on the countdown: 18. Chris votes off Eliza at F4 This move could have backfired in 2 ways: (1) Chris could have lost Eliza's jury vote, or (2) he could have been voted out at F3 if he lost the IC. Regarding (1): Chris justifiably had confidence in his rhetorical skills in front of the jury, so I don't fault him for thinking Eliza's hurt feelings could be easily remedied, especially when the alternative would be someone she despised. Regarding (2): Yes, Chris was in the F3 with the two oldest women, and one of them had a knee replacement, so the probability of him losing the final IC would be small. But that probability would still be a non-zero number, whereas if he had forced a F4 tie and Eliza won the ensuing fire-making challenge, the probability of him not making the F2 would be exactly zero, because there was no way that either Scout or Eliza would take the other over Chris, meaning Chris could have thrown the challenge with impunity. In either F2 scenario, Chris would have won: against Scout he'd have every vote except Twila, and against Eliza he'd have the two guys, as well as Twila and Scout (do you really think that the latter two would vote for Eliza to win under any circumstances?). Basically, I fault Chris for trading an absolutely certain F2 spot for an almost certain F2 spot. It's not a biggie, though; that's why it's so low. Also, some of you have provided links that persuasively refute some of my picks, so I've updated the list accordingly (changes in bold). Anything left unchanged lacks either sufficient refuting evidence or persuasive counterarguments: Richard targets Greg at F10 Tina votes Jerri out at F8 Ethan votes off Kelly at F9 Vecepia votes for Neleh at F4 Brian doesn't reach out to any Sook Jai Jenna spills her alliances to Dave at the swap Sandra votes off Tijuana at F7 Amber votes off Tom at F5 Chris blindsides Eliza at F4 Tom votes off Stephenie at F7 Danni votes off Blake at the first post-swap TC Aras votes for Bruce at Casaya's 2nd TC Yul offers Becky the HII twice Earl targets Alex at F9 Todd gives James both idols Parvati votes off Ozzy Bob bluffs Ken with a fake idol JT votes off Brendan Natalie has no Plan B in case the Russell alliance fails 2 more tomorrow. or at least, persuasive to me. Obviously, I'll say why I don't find a given counterargument persuasive in the write-up for the actual ranking. Last Edited By: King Lord 12/27/09 01:13 AM. Edited 1 times.
unduli clone		#63	[-]
Posts: 8129 (12/27/09 12:59 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	This is a laudable #18, for sure. I think that Eliza could've worked more than a few jury votes - she definitely was a bigger threat in that regard than either Scout or Twila - but I also think that Chris was almost guaranteed a F2 spot with either her or Scout, as you said. I think the biggest problem with Chris not forcing the tie was that Twila had lasted a long time in the endurance IC and he had no idea the final IC would be based on upper-arm strength. At that point, Twila had proven herself better in traditional F3 challenges than Eliza, so I think it was just as safe a bet to take both Eliza and Scout to the F3 instead of Twila/Scout. However, I do think that Eliza would've been smart enough to take Scout to the F2 had she won the F3 IC. She knew at that point, as a fan, that women stood a better chance against men and that Chris was a jury threat. While she does have a record for playing emotionally, I think that Chris would've been smart enough to realize that she had more of a head for the game than for petty differences.
CrystalOwnage		#64	[-]
Posts: 5679 (12/27/09 01:19 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think that the Natalie "blunder" is quite a bit of a stretch.
CatLurvesDorothy		#65	[-]
Posts: 6470 (12/27/09 01:25 AM) OMEDETO, CATHY!! Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think Nat's only real blunder was letting Ashley go before Liz, but even that can be argued as a case of challenge strength and cutting her losses.
unduli clone		#66	[-]
Posts: 8133 (12/27/09 01:27 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	CatLurvesDorothy wrote: I think Nat's only real blunder was letting Ashley go before Liz, but even that can be argued as a case of challenge strength and cutting her losses. i.T.a.
goohst		#67	[-]
Posts: 1478 (12/27/09 01:31 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Nat/Ash/Liz womyn alliance... I can only dream
ilovekelly752		#68	[-]
Posts: 828 (12/27/09 01:47 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	CrystalOwnage wrote: I think that the Natalie "blunder" is quite a bit of a stretch. It's also not true. She did have a plan B. How good of a plan it was is debateable, but to say she didn't have one is inaccurate. ETA: Although, I do appreciate the Todd and JT ones being changed. It shows the OP is listening to us. I think Todd's new one definitely could have backfired, but I think in hindsight it was a good move, because it made James a target. If Todd had kept one, he could've been targeted too. Last Edited By: ilovekelly752 12/27/09 02:19 AM. Edited 3 times.
ilovekelly752		#69	[-]
Posts: 829 (12/27/09 01:55 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	CatLurvesDorothy wrote: I think Nat's only real blunder was letting Ashley go before Liz, but even that can be argued as a case of challenge strength and cutting her losses. If Natalie's game was not flawless, then I think this might be the only blunder. I do however think that Chris's blunder was way worse, because it put him in a position where he had a 2/3 chance of being voted off. He had to win immunity.
AveryC		#70	[-]
Posts: 180 (12/27/09 02:24 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of all the things I've lost, I miss my ads the most. Right! Remove this ad Here's a post I made in LTS about Danni and Blake, which justifies in my mind why voting of Blake was a good move. Consider the structure of the game at that point. The ruling Nakum alliance was Danni/Margaret/Brooke/Brandon/Blake/Bobby Jon with Cindy/Judd as outsiders. The switch at the final 15 put Danni on a tribe the three men plus three Yaxha members whilst Judd/Cindy stayed behind with her women and four Yaxha members. Then the new Nakum tribe comes to the challenge with Brooke being voted off. This was far more a critical moment then it is ever cited for. It was clear now that outsiders Judd/Cindy had flipped to the old Yaxha and Danni's alliance had lost a member. Also Judd/Margaret were already enemies and she was the obvious next boot should they head to tribal. The prospects of Danni being in a majority at the merge were suddenly very doubtful. If NuYaxha won all the immunities and made the merge intact, then Brian /Amy/Gary would flip back towards whoever was still left from oldYaxha and Danni's alliance would get pagonged. If they voted out Brian/Gary/Amy then whoever was left would flip over. If they lost multiple challenges they were toast anyway. Danni needed a way to keep the loyalty of the Brian/Amy/Gary trio at the merge, since Judd/Cindy were not flipping and the the other four old Yaxha had no incentive to flip. If NuYaxha entered the merge with three oldNakum and three oldYaxha then neither side would have incentive to flip on the other at the merge. She made a smart move voting out Blake. And it did secure the loyalty of Brian/Amy /Gary. Gary could've jumped to to his old tribe but he didn't out of loyalty to Danni/Brandon/Bobby Jon for keeping them. Blake was the weakest of the three Nakum men and the one Danni was least trusting of, so it had multiple benefits. That was kinda long winded, but it makes sense to me. She knew what she was doing out there. And far as the Todd thing goes, I think the amount of effort required to remove the mistake (which I think it was, but clearly others don't) speaks volumes about where it should place in the list.
Thailandsurvivor		#71	[-]
Posts: 9267 (12/27/09 02:29 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'm one of the very few who thinks Chris made a bad move by voting out Eliza. He keeps her, and she wins the tiebreaker, then he makes the finals no matter what. If he keeps her, and she loses the tiebreaker, he gets Eliza and Eliza's friends' votes. He votes her out (and lies to her pretty badly), then he has to win the final challenge. Obviously, he did, but Africa and PI have shown that strange things can and have happened in final three challenges.
Thailandsurvivor		#72	[-]
Posts: 9268 (12/27/09 02:30 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	And Parvati voting for Ozzy was not a bad move. Parvati did make a bad move by not controlling the fans like people claim she did. If she did, then Amanda never would have been in danger.
JackSparrowBauer		#73	[-]
Posts: 3780 (12/27/09 07:24 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Eliza was Chris' biggest thread at the time. She probably would've made the smart decision and taken Scout to the Final 2 because it would've been obvious that she couldn't beat Chris in a Final 2. She was also really good at challenges.
ilovekelly752		#74	[-]
Posts: 836 (12/27/09 11:39 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think the Brian one should be number one, since we know the damage it caused, and it was almost enough to lose the game for him. With the others, either there was no proven negative effect, like Richard targeting Greg, or it actually ended up helping them, like Todd's, Danni's, or JT's. Last Edited By: ilovekelly752 12/27/09 12:57 PM. Edited 1 times.
King Lord		#75	[-]
Posts: 354 (12/27/09 12:11 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Thailandsurvivor wrote: And Parvati voting for Ozzy was not a bad move. Parvati did make a bad move by not controlling the fans like people claim she did. If she did, then Amanda never would have been in danger. That's the thing -- the fans wouldn't have even been in a position to vote off Amanda if Ozzy had been kept a little longer. But I understand the argument that Ozzy would probably have swept the remaining ICs, making the trade-off worth it. Also, remember that I'm not necessarily arguing that these moves were indisputably bad, just that they could have severely backfired. With that in mind, let's continue the countdown: 17. Natalie has no plan B in case Russell proves disloyal I changed the wording to assuage some of the complaints, but I don't want to belabor the point because it's a relatively minor one. My main point was that Natalie investing virtually her entire game in Russell could have backfired if Russell had decided not to take her to the finals. You could argue that Natalie intuited that she could get Russell to underestimate her and thus take her to end, but she has not (in my mind) satisfactorily presented this as a deliberate strategy. In all the post-show interviews I've read, Natalie has never said something along the lines of, "I played upon the 'dumb blond' image Russell had of me so that he'd think he could beat me in the finals, all the while knowing my social game would beat him in the end." If Russell had decided to take, say, Jaison and Shambo to the finals with him, I highly doubt that Natalie would have been able to stop him, and that's what I mean when I say she had no plan B. The remaining moves as of now: Richard targets Greg at F10 Tina votes Jerri out at F8 Ethan votes off Kelly at F9 Vecepia votes for Neleh at F4 Brian doesn't reach out to any Sook Jai Jenna spills her alliances to Dave at the swap Sandra votes off Tijuana at F7 Amber votes off Tom at F5 Chris blindsides Eliza at F4 Tom votes off Stephenie at F7 Danni votes off Blake at the first post-swap TC Aras votes for Bruce at Casaya's 2nd TC Yul offers Becky the HII twice Earl targets Alex at F9 Todd gives James both idols Parvati votes off Ozzy Bob bluffs Ken with a fake idol JT votes off Brendan Natalie has no Plan B in case the Russell alliance fails Another one on the way this evening. Last Edited By: King Lord 12/27/09 06:40 PM. Edited 1 times.
Michaelf7777777	Regarding these "mistakes"	#76	[-]
Posts: 15 (12/27/09 12:16 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Firstly with regards to Chris not forcing a tie to save Eliza at F4, that was absolutely the right decision as under the tie-break rules that season he had a 50% chance of going home. (Don't think for a moment that a Purple Rock O' Death situation will happen. Why would Eliza, or Chris if the dyad is stupid, think for a moment of teaming with each other rather than the dyad to force a tie? In that circumstance, one of them would have to draw a rock with a 50/50 chance of going home since the new rule is receivers of tie votes are exempt from the draw and everybody else, even an immunity holder, is vulnerable. http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article0258.art&page=1 Jenna has also revealed here that Dave also revealed the dynamics of the male tribe to her so I don't know if that was to big a mistake if one at all (I'd probably say that a bigger mistake would be siding with Alex instead of Deena in the Final 8). Also I think that Vecepia still thought they were working under prior vote rules where Neleh had past votes and Paschal didn't. Amber voting off Tom also arguably wasn't a mistake because that made Tom annoyed with Boston Rob and provided Amber with her winning jury vote.
ilovekelly752		#77	[-]
Posts: 841 (12/27/09 12:55 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Natalie did say that she wanted to be underestimated so that she would be taken to the end, and she did talk about stroking Russell's ego everyday telling him how he will win, and how he's running the game. Reality TV World: Before you left camp for the final Tribal Council, we saw you telling Mick and Russell that you were happy with third place. Were you just trying to tell them what you thought they wanted to hear or did you really have that little confidence that you could beat Mick and Russell? Natalie: I definitely had confidence that I could beat them. But I always was making sure I was letting Russell know, "You're the best player, you're the best player." I've got to stroke that ego because I wanted him to continue to be cocky and arrogant because I didn't feel that jury would reward that behavior. I just didn't. http://www.realitytvworld.com/news/exclusive-survivor-samoa-champ-natalie-white-discusses-her-win-10130.php ETA: Wow, I just noticed the Jenna mistake. That's bad, especially going into a switch. Last Edited By: ilovekelly752 12/27/09 01:03 PM. Edited 3 times.
spnintendo		#78	[-]
Posts: 7901 (12/27/09 12:59 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	That's only #17? Russhole was basically Natalie's entire game. Worst.winner.ever. I mean...say wha? hides
Thailandsurvivor		#79	[-]
Posts: 9283 (12/27/09 01:09 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Michaelf7777777 wrote: Firstly with regards to Chris not forcing a tie to save Eliza at F4, that was absolutely the right decision as under the tie-break rules that season he had a 50% chance of going home. (Don't think for a moment that a Purple Rock O' Death situation will happen. Why would Eliza, or Chris if the dyad is stupid, think for a moment of teaming with each other rather than the dyad to force a tie? In that circumstance, one of them would have to draw a rock with a 50/50 chance of going home since the new rule is receivers of tie votes are exempt from the draw and everybody else, even an immunity holder, is vulnerable. http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article0258.art&page=1 Jenna has also revealed here that Dave also revealed the dynamics of the male tribe to her so I don't know if that was to big a mistake if one at all (I'd probably say that a bigger mistake would be siding with Alex instead of Deena in the Final 8). Also I think that Vecepia still thought they were working under prior vote rules where Neleh had past votes and Paschal didn't. Amber voting off Tom also arguably wasn't a mistake because that made Tom annoyed with Boston Rob and provided Amber with her winning jury vote. How did Chris have a 50% chance of going home? He had immunity.
Michaelf7777777		#80	[-]
Posts: 16 (12/27/09 01:29 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Of all the things I've lost, I miss my ads the most. Right! Remove this ad According to that article the rules for the purple rock at the Final 4 in Vanuatu were that only the people who had recieved votes were safe from drawing rocks while everyone else including the immunity holder had to draw purple rocks

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KL ranks Top 19 Survivor winners' blunders (#9 UP! Pg 9)