If the HII never existed... in Lions, Tigers, Survivors

0 Points

If the HII never existed...

Started By	Comment
AveryC		#41	[-]
Posts: 213 (01/05/10 12:17 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ads - The reason I wake up every morning. Remove this ad Jonathan would have voted with Aitu at F9 anyway, HII or not. It was just icing on the cake for siding with them. This. From what he knew at the time Jonathan thought he'd be better of with the Aitus than the Raros. We probably wouldn't be at this point though, since he wouldn't have mutinied in absence of the idol anway. In Gabon it's possible that Sugar gets voted out early and the whole game is then changed big-time, post-merge. They didn't target Sugar pre-merge because she had the HII, right? And Kota might've voted out Susie versus Dan, since on paper they'd think Dan is better in challenges. Kota seemed fairly certain a merge was coming next, so it's likely Susie would've survived IMO. Sugar's harder, because she couldn't end up on Exile during the swap if that is removed from the equation as well. It would change a lot. CI: Penner was not stupid, did not like Candice/Adam/Parv and would probably be willing to explore any options which came along, would probably know he was out at 5th in Raro5. This is true, but Candice actually intended to have him in the Final Three with her and Adam. He had no idea of this because she never told him or gave any real indication of it. The only endgame deal he got offered was with Yul, so he took it. The only scenario I can see Exile appearing without an idol is during tribe swaps like with Lisi and Sylvia. Otherwise it'd be done away with I think. This is also true of kidnapping in China and Samoa.
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#42	[-]
Posts: 10172 (01/05/10 12:18 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	SurvivorFanGP wrote: In Gabon it's possible that Sugar gets voted out early and the whole game is then changed big-time, post-merge. They didn't target Sugar pre-merge because she had the HII, right? And Kota might've voted out Susie versus Dan, since on paper they'd think Dan is better in challenges. I'm pretty sure Sugar was kept around as a goat actually, so not much changes in Gabon other than the ramifications of Bob's now non existent strategical legs.
XtremeInnovator420		#43	[-]
Posts: 2697 (01/05/10 12:46 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yeah, I remember Ken actually made some comment in an interview about how there was a point he realized he could "have his pick out of 3 goats at the end" (who I'm assuming would've been Sugar, Crystal, and Susie?), so I'm pretty sure that was part of the reason Sugar was kept around. And he actually said a lot of the reason he wanted Charlie out was because he was the member of the Kotas he felt that Sugar would have been the most likely to switch sides for since well, she would obviously never flip to help Corinne or Randy.
spina		#44	[-]
Posts: 69 (01/05/10 02:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Assuuming there is no HII but there is Exile Island/Kidnapping/Observing it would work like this Guatamala - Gary and Bobby Jon swap places in the jury, Jamie still goes at the same time. Panama- The same things happens until Day 30 - Shane, Courtney on the outs of Casaya 6, Misty goes early, Bruce gets medivaced, etc. etc. Terry wins ALL the immunity challenges. Terry decides that he should take Cirie to F3 as she isn't as good in challenges. Terry convinces Aras that Danielle will probably win the F3 challenge as it is likely balance and endurance based and she won't take Aras because she thinks that she won't get any Casaya votes apart from Bruce if she does. Danielle goes 3-1. Cirie falls off first and Aras wins the challenge. Aras knows that he has no shot at being Cirie, as she has at least 4 votes in the bag (Austin, Sally, Bruce, Terry) if he votes out Terry, so he decides that the only person he can realistically beat is Terry. Terry gets votes from Austin, Sally, Bruce and Shane and Aras gets votes from Cirie, Courtney and Danielle Cook Islands - Yul goes as early as possible (F9) followed by Ozzy after Adam wins the IC. Penner then goes, and Nate, winning all the challenges, cruises through to the finals, ousting Candice (jury threat), Sundra and Becky. Adam wins. Fiji - Horsemen go and Yau goes instead of Stacy. Boo wins the next two immunities, and convinces Dreamz to flip, saying he will take him to the finals. The next TC victim is Earl then Stacy, who loses in firemaking tiebreaker after Dreamz votes with Cassandra. Boo wins, Dreamz gets no votes and Cassandra only gets a vote from Earl. China - James is still booted at the same time, Erik and Peih Gee booted after. Micronesia - Eliza, Ozzy, Jason and James all go, Amanda goes instead of Alexis, then Erik doesn't give up immunity so Alexis, then Cirie go. Erik loses the F3 challenge to Nat, who realizes that the jury is almost completely Favourites, who won't give it to a fan, so she votes out Parv and takes Erik. Erik gets votes from Ozzy, Eliza, Jason, James and Parvati (who is bitter about being voted out) and Natalie gets votes from Cirie, Alexis and Amanda. Erik wins Gabon - Stays same, Kenny is still blindsided at the same time. Tocantins - Exile Island remains, but Taj is blindsided at Episode 6 TC, 3-2, because JT trusts Sydney more (as Taj has no idol to show him). Joe is still medivaced in Episode 7, This puts the tribe divisions at the merge at 5-5. Brendan goes as Coach forms the Warrior Alliance with JT, Tyson, Stephen and himself. Tyson goes next, followed by Sierra. Sydney then goes for doing a "Colleen" and doing no wrong to anyone, followed by Debbie, Coach and Erinn. JT still wins 7-0. Samoa - The same things happen until second merge boot, Russell H goes instead of Kelly, then Jaison goes (Mick wins immunity), then Mick goes after Dave wins immunity, followed by Shambo. John goes and Brett goes on an immunity run, winning the last 5 immunity challenges. Natalie goes after John, followed by Dave, then Kelly ties with Laura (Brett and Kelly vs Laura and Monica) Kelly loses the firebuilding tiebreaker . Brett wins with votes from John, Mick, Kelly, Russell H, Erik, Dave and Shambo, Monica gets no votes and Laura gets Natalie's vote.
JLK Name		#45	[-]
Posts: 2785 (01/05/10 04:21 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I wish there was no HII in S19.
Axie.rsfd		#46	[-]
Posts: 480 (01/05/10 06:21 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'd need to rewatch the seasons from Guatemala to Tocantins, but since Samoa is recent, I'll give it a try (tl;dr post alert): Without HII, I believe Foa Foa's pre-merge would happen the same way; even without the HII Queefstain could probably get Jaison to stick with him. It's post-merge where it all would change. I will, of course, suppose that Galu still sucks at life, and that when the person that already won the challenge was eliminated, the second place on that challenge would win immunity. F12 - John and Laura win immunity. Without everyone knowing Queefstain has a HII, Erik probably wouldn't ask Jaison/Natalie/Mick to leave Queefstain in the dark. But he would probably try to get them to vote for Monica, then be a condescending prick, and Jaison would still want him gone. Natalie works her magic and Erik leaves 10-2 anyway. F11 - Laura wins immunity, and without HII, maybe Galu would gun for Queefstain anyway, because he think he's the strategic leader of Foa Foa and all that. There's no way to save him, and YAY, Queefstain leaves 7-4. Or 6-5, if Shambo votes with Foa Foa to try and save him. I highly doubt she could get another Galu to flip with her, however. F10- Mick wins immunity, which prompts Galu to gun for Natalie. However (and this is the point where it becomes my opinion), I can see John trying to get Shambo to vote for Monica to save Foa Foa and herself, as there's no doubt she leaves after all Foa Foa are down, as Galu are not smart enough to use her as a goat. Remember John had an irrational paranoia towards Monica, and on the show he had negotiations with Queefstain on F10, which makes me believe he would do the same here. Shambo would want Laura gone, but not even her would try to negotiate in such a poor position. John, Shambo and FF3 vote Monica, Galu votes Natalie. On a revote, we have two possibilities: a) purple rock or b) a Galu flips and votes for Monica, and out of the five, Dave is more likely to do it. Since a) would require me to choose a boot by myself, and that's biased, for the sake of argument I'll go with b) even though a) is more likely. Monica leaves, 5-5 then 5-3. F9- Jaison buys the hint and wins immunity. Dave would flip, but then he worries about the chicken, Shambo goes cuckoo and dreams about him. However, Laura still is on the game, making Shambo miserable. John uses that, Dave flips anyway, Shambo is more than happy to get Laura out, and Laura leaves 6-3. F8- Jaison wins immunity again. With Laura gone, Shambo now wants Dave out because, well, she dreamed about him and all. I don't think Dave would be happy about that; with no Queefstain, he, Kelly and Brett would try to flip the FF3, but the FF3 ultimately goes with John and Shambo (because they don't suck at life, as you'll see), and Dave leaves 5-3. F7- Brett wins immunity, forcing John, Shambo and FF3 to gun for Kelly. Kelly pulls a Monica on John on TC, but leaves 5-2. F6- Brett wins immunity, which means, LOL, Foa Foa have 3 guys and John+Shambo are only two. With Brett easily flippable as he has nothing to lose, John leaves 4-2. Oh, how awesome would it be? F5- Brett wins immunity, Shambo's easily out 4-1. F4- Now this is where it becomes lovely: without Queefstain, Brett wins immunity. Mick would gun for Jaison, Jaison would gun for Mick, neither cares about Natalie, she and Brett get the bigger jury threat out. Since Jaison still is whiny and "checked out" of the game, Mick leaves 3-1. F3: Natalie, Brett and Jaison are the F3. Considering a Galu jury, which translates as "failure at life": Erik - Brett, because there's no Queefstain for him to say "PERCEPTION IS NOT REALITY", and because Brett's a Galu Queefstain - Natalie, because she's a Foa Foa Monica - Brett, because he's a Galu Laura - Brett, because he's a Galu Dave - Brett, because he's a Galu Kelly - Brett, because he's a Galu John - He wouldn't vote Brett because in his mind, Foa Foa are the strategically responsible on voting him out; thus, he votes Natalie Shambo - Brett, because Jaison is feckless and Shambo fails to recognize Natalie's work after John leaves, and calls her a coattail rider anyway Mick - Natalie, because she's a Foa Foa, flipped on John and thought he was a bigger threat than Jaison Brett wins 6-3-0. Yay, this was fun! Maybe I'll try this for other seasons when I rewatch them. Last Edited By: Axie 01/05/10 06:28 AM. Edited 1 times.
tomash		#47	[-]
Posts: 2387 (01/05/10 06:51 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think Boo winning Fiji could have been a possibility, that is if Dreamz/Cassandra would have booted Earl at the final 5 (I have my doubts). I could see Boo having a good shot at beating Dreamz at the final 4 IC.
nordicsurvivor		#48	[-]
Posts: 413 (01/05/10 06:55 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	spina wrote: Assuuming there is no HII but there is Exile Island/Kidnapping/Observing it would work like this Panama- The same things happens until Day 30 - Shane, Courtney on the outs of Casaya 6, Misty goes early, Bruce gets medivaced, etc. etc. Terry wins ALL the immunity challenges. Terry decides that he should take Cirie to F3 as she isn't as good in challenges. Terry convinces Aras that Danielle will probably win the F3 challenge as it is likely balance and endurance based and she won't take Aras because she thinks that she won't get any Casaya votes apart from Bruce if she does. Danielle goes 3-1. Cirie falls off first and Aras wins the challenge. Aras knows that he has no shot at being Cirie, as she has at least 4 votes in the bag (Austin, Sally, Bruce, Terry) if he votes out Terry, so he decides that the only person he can realistically beat is Terry. Terry gets votes from Austin, Sally, Bruce and Shane and Aras gets votes from Cirie, Courtney and Danielle So once you remove the idol, Terry learns how to convince people?
AveryC		#49	[-]
Posts: 219 (01/05/10 08:13 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Since the original post called for Exile to be removed as well, I'll outline what would change and what might've happened in it's place. Guatemala - Everything up until the Merge stays the same. - Judd doesn't receive the clue at the Final 9 and thus doesn't lie about it's contents. His boot would be harder to pull off somewhat. - Gary is voted out at the Final Nine. The only possible ramification of this is that Danni/Lydia may not become allied. - Bobby Jon survives at the Final 9 and may win challenges to progress further. Overall Guatemala wouldn't really change that much. I'd say the Gary/Bobby Jon boots are simply swapped. Panama - Misty is not exiled in episode 1, and is possibly spared in episode 3. - Bruce can't be sent to Exile in episode 2. He either is placed on one of the tribes or the swap is altered. The swap might even be moved. - Terry doesn't find the idol. Thus he is vulnerable at the Final Four and loses the only real leverage he had. - Sally is voted out in episode 6 as she is not exiled (unless Casaya gives her individual immunity or something). - All post merge exiles don't change anything. Overall Panama could be altered a fair bit. It's Bruce's situation which makes things really unpredictable. Ignoring that, either Aras or Cirie wins. Cook Islands - Jonathan is not exiled in episode 1. This may affect his bonds with Raro (good or bad). - Yul doesn't find the idol in episode 2. However his gameplay was unfluenced by that until episode 10. - Candice is not saved from the vote in episode 3. Less strategy is needed to boot Cecilia and Candice can more feasibly hide her bonds with Adam/Parvati. - Adam's exiles don't affect anything, unless we consider he acted like he had the idol. - Jonathan doesn't mutiny since the idol doesn't exist. Candice may also stay at Aitu, but probably not. - Candice is not exiled while on Raro. Once again this affects little. - The same Final 9 is achieved most likely, but Jonathan is on Aitu with no reason to flip. He also would've flipped Idol or not in the actual season. - Becky would force a tie with Yul, which he would win against Sundra. Overall I'd say Yul wins again. Fiji - Almost everything changes as outlined on the previous page. The idol being gone would actually help Earl's chances IMO. No way do Cassandra/Dreamz win in any case. China - Jaime, Leslie, Dave and James are not kidnapped. This may help Leslie stick around. - Jean Robert would not be voted out at the Final 9. - Unclear how James fits in. Probably the same outcome. Micronesia - Yau Man and Kathy are still immune at their first Tribals. - Cirie doesn't turn on Yau Man (unless we consider she intended to set him up from the start) and Parvati is in danger of being the third boot. - Kathy may not quit without constant exiles taking their toll on her. - Chet's booted in episode 2, since Mikey B's wouldn't alienate Joel with complex strategy. - Ozzy can't find the idol in episode 4. - Post merge is far too involved to get into. Significantly Parvati could possibly be the third boot without Cirie flipping on Yau Man. It's impossible to say who wins. Infact depending on what happens in prior seasons the cast could change itself, especially if someone like Cirie won. Gabon - Dan would still go in episode 7, but the vote isn't split towards Susie. - Sugar can't be exiled, meaning she may stick with Ace on NuFang. Or she ends up on NuKota instead and changes everything. - Randy's and Corrine are booted without controversy. Gabon depends on where Sugar ends up. Haven't seen Tocantins. Samoa is tough. I'd say the merge changes significantly. Last Edited By: AveryC 01/05/10 08:18 AM. Edited 1 times.
Lexxan		#50	[-]
Posts: 1123 (01/05/10 08:36 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ads - The reason I wake up every morning. Remove this ad ilovekelly752 wrote: Gabon- With no idol, there's no fake idols, so Bob can't scare Kenny into voting for Matty, thinking he was going home anyway. Without that vote causing Crystal and Kenny to be rude to Matty, Sugar stays with them, Susie and Matty are on the oustide, and Bob is out as soon as he loses immunity. The final three is what Kenny wanted, and as much as I hate to say it, I think he gets the votes. Winner: Kenny I think you're forgetting one tiny detail, but ever so crucial detail. Sugar flipping against Ace had EVERYTHING to do with the HII and the paranoia it caused. Sugar turned against Ace when he asked her to give her the HII (unfortunately right after Kenny had lied to her about Ace's ambitions of keeping the Idol for himself and dumping Sugar). Sugar most likely wouldn't have flipped against Ace if she didn't have the HII. Crystal goes at that TC. Then, if Ace takes Crystal's place at F10, he and Kenny join Susie, Bob and Marcus in NewNewKota. My guess is that Susie still flips and Marcus leaves at F10. Then, at F9 we have the following match-ups: Randy-Corrine-Bob-Charlie are one alliance. Ace-Sugar-Matty-Susie are another, and KEN (not Sugar) is the swing vote. Ken could go either way on each alliance, but most he would most likely flip toward the Fang Alliance of Sugar, Ace, Matty and Susie, due to his closeness with Matty, Sugar and Susie. (even though he still doesn't like Ace). Since Charlie didn't snatch any clues about the HII to Ken, Charlie doesn't become a target. Randy leaves instead. 5-4 F8: Kenny still wins Immunity. My guess is that he'll stay with his Fang Alliance, I think he's more likely to flip again and force a tie (and draw rocks). I'll still go with staying strong with his alliance however: Corinne leaves for being seen as abrasive and unlikeable. 5-3 F7: Bob still wins Immunity. (I don't think Ace's or Charlie's presence would've changed anything to that). Fang Alliance stays strong, and Charlie is booted. 5-2 F6: Here's where I think Ace's presence would've made a difference. I think Ace will win Immunity, and Bob will be booted. 5-1 (or 4-2 if Sugar starts acting like a retard, like she did at F6) F5: Since Bob and Sugar were neck-on-neck in the challenges, I'd say Sugar wins Immunity. The Tribe rifts between Ace and Sugar on one Side and Kenny, Matty Susie on another. However, I think Sugar will have her "moment of retardation" and form a F2 alliance with Matty. Regardless, Ace is booted 4-1. F4: Kenny showed he had a steady hand at the Domino challenge, so my guess is that he wins immunity. Sugar will try to get her F2 spot with Matty, and will target Susie. Kenny will most likely follow along, and Susie is voted out 3-1 F3: Sugar will be seen as unstable and downright crazy. She'll try to give Matty the money in her Jury preformance. Matty will give a poor jury preformance, similar the one Mick gave in Samoa. Kenny's jury speech will be average at least. Then the Jury casts their votes: Marcus will still be bitter about Kenny turning the tables against the Onions... twice in a row (when Kenny voted out Marcus and Randy). Given Sugar's dreadfull Jury preformances, he'll vote MATTY. Randy will vote for the person he likes the most, MATTY. Corinne hates Sugar and is indifferent towards Matty, but I think she'd appreciate Kenny's cutthroat game. She voted KENNY. Charlie will most likely follow Marcus everywhere he goes. No way he's voting differently than Marcus. He, too, votes MATTY Bob, too will vote for the person he liked the most. Matty and Bob didn't get along, and Ken's relationship with Bob was lukewarm at most. He votes SUGAR. Ace will be furious about Sugar's betrayal, but I'm pretty sure he'll respect Kenny's game. (from Underdog to F3 is far from bad). However, he'll vote for his longtime ally, MATTY, if Matty doesn't give a bad jury speech. If he does, Ace will vote Kenny, which I think he will. Finally, we have Susie, who is a locked-in vote for MATTY. So, without HIIs, Matty wins Gabon 4-2-1 OR 5-1-1
XtremeInnovator420		#51	[-]
Posts: 2698 (01/05/10 11:04 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Personally, I think you're forgetting to take 2 things into account. 1. If there's no HII, Ken would likely use a different strategy to try and flip Sugar against Ace. What it would be, and whether or not it would work is hard to say. And 2. If, as you say, Ace and Crystal swap places in regards to NuFang and NuNuKota, then NuNuKota has a much better chance of winning the F10 IC, in which case, Matty would go home and the dynamic would be Bob/Randy/Corinne/Charlie/Marcus vs Ken/Sugar/Ace/Susie. However, if there's no HII, then Susie might go home instead of Dan or something. It's kind of hard to call that. However, if the F9 is still the same and there's no HII, then Ken pretty much wins.
Jho		#52	[-]
Posts: 493 (01/05/10 01:32 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	And there's no way Ken would keep Matty at final 4 and vote Susie when he knew Matty would be a big threat in the end. If he has immunity he wouldn't have anything to lose. Considering Susie won the fire challenge and Matty lost both I think Susie would win it once again
SirCrocodilep		#53	[-]
Posts: 493 (01/05/10 02:40 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	WylDawg wrote: Not wanting to throw in racial accusations, but there were definitely a black alliance between Earl/Cassandra/Dreamz. They were final 3 no matter what. Stacy probably would've tried to knock out Earl and take his space in the top 3 but it wouldn't've worked. Yup, that is a fact. Had Anthony not left earlier, it would have been final four black alliance. (Anthony would probably won the game since there is no way that Dre would have kept Earl) It is easily one of Jeff's least favorite seasons and for good reasons. It wasn't fun to watch Dre talking how great he is and acting like he have to represent his people, Latin men being stupid, Melissa quitting for unknown reasons and Sylvia for not getting fair chance at game.
JPOz		#54	[-]
Posts: 839 (01/05/10 06:22 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	XtremeInnovator420 wrote: Personally, I think you're forgetting to take 2 things into account. 1. If there's no HII, Ken would likely use a different strategy to try and flip Sugar against Ace. What it would be, and whether or not it would work is hard to say. And 2. If, as you say, Ace and Crystal swap places in regards to NuFang and NuNuKota, then NuNuKota has a much better chance of winning the F10 IC, in which case, Matty would go home and the dynamic would be Bob/Randy/Corinne/Charlie/Marcus vs Ken/Sugar/Ace/Susie. However, if there's no HII, then Susie might go home instead of Dan or something. It's kind of hard to call that. However, if the F9 is still the same and there's no HII, then Ken pretty much wins. Personallly I believe that scenario overlooks that without HII and EI one tribe would have been stuck with Sugar at the first tribe switch. Without EI Sugar would have been much less well fed AND whatever tribe was stuck with her would have been subjected to her daily emotional meltdowns..which would probably been much worse since she was less fed and had no respite from the animosity around her. Since Kotex had 8-7 advantage at first switch they would get the extra body...probably her....and Corinne/Randy would probably get so fed up with her they would propose throwing a challenge just to get rid of her. IF she was still with them at the vote where Dan went out there's a good chance they would have gotten rid of her in spite of the threat Dan appeared to be. Secondly, as above, with no HII Marcus would not have tossed the second HII in the ocean. Without that event there probably would not have been a faux merge/swap/faux tribal IC. Lastly, while it's fun to speculate, Survivor is much like dominoes. Change one piece and all actual events that occurred are out the window. All of us could use our imaginations and creative writing skills and conclude just as adamantly that Dan won...or Susie won...or Massive Crystal wins...or Marcus wins..etc.
Lexxan		#55	[-]
Posts: 1131 (01/06/10 10:05 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Jho wrote: And there's no way Ken would keep Matty at final 4 and vote Susie when he knew Matty would be a big threat in the end. If he has immunity he wouldn't have anything to lose. Considering Susie won the fire challenge and Matty lost both I think Susie would win it once again It would require Susie to vote Matty off... which she'll never do. Susie most likely votes Sugar.
cindidindi76		#56	[-]
Posts: 21175 (01/06/10 05:50 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	ilovekelly752 wrote: Ahora wrote: SurvivorNinja wrote: No HII? Micronesia plays the same until F10..there is no "it's just a fucking stick". F9 and F8 Ozzy and Jason still taken out next due to being challenge threats and the women working together. James is still injured, Amanda goes at F6, followed likely by Cirie because Erik wouldn't be giving up immunity anymore. F4 is Alexis, Nat, Erik and Parv. I'm gonna guess Erik wins immunity again and Parvati goes. Nat and Alexis take each other to F2 with Natalie winning..if Erik wins FIC then he's have a chance to win. Cirie was in on the plan and only voted for Amanda because she had the idol, she was sticking with Parv & Amanda at final 6. When did she say that? Not doubting, just asking I think that came from the Insider clips. I don't remember specifically, but it's definitely true. Apparently Jonathan flipping wasn't soley about the idol, but also regarding Raro's poor treatment of him and how Nate would talk crap about his wife. Where did that info come from? What was he saying and why? I never heard about that before, and then I've read it about 3 times today, lol. Last Edited By: cindidindi76 01/06/10 05:59 PM. Edited 1 times.
SirCrocodilep		#57	[-]
Posts: 526 (01/07/10 12:03 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	cindidindi76 wrote: ilovekelly752 wrote: Ahora wrote: SurvivorNinja wrote: No HII? Micronesia plays the same until F10..there is no "it's just a fucking stick". F9 and F8 Ozzy and Jason still taken out next due to being challenge threats and the women working together. James is still injured, Amanda goes at F6, followed likely by Cirie because Erik wouldn't be giving up immunity anymore. F4 is Alexis, Nat, Erik and Parv. I'm gonna guess Erik wins immunity again and Parvati goes. Nat and Alexis take each other to F2 with Natalie winning..if Erik wins FIC then he's have a chance to win. Cirie was in on the plan and only voted for Amanda because she had the idol, she was sticking with Parv & Amanda at final 6. When did she say that? Not doubting, just asking I think that came from the Insider clips. I don't remember specifically, but it's definitely true. Apparently Jonathan flipping wasn't soley about the idol, but also regarding Raro's poor treatment of him and how Nate would talk crap about his wife. Where did that info come from? What was he saying and why? I never heard about that before, and then I've read it about 3 times today, lol. I'm curious about that, too.
menelaus		#58	[-]
Posts: 504 (01/07/10 12:59 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	S11 plays out basically the same, Danni still wins. S12 plays out basically the same up till the F4, where Terry goes home. Danielle still wins the F3 challenge, and whomever she takes with her wins (probably Cirie) S13 becomes a lot different. The premerge probably is almost entirely the same, but Jonathan is much less likely to flip at F9 because Yul doesn't have his bargaining chip. Either he flips and the game plays out the same, or he doesn't, in which case Candice probably wins. S14 gets really muffled, since the idol stuff leaks into the premerge a bit. My guess is that the premerge would still play out largely the same, and Michelle would have still gone at F10. The Horsemen are down in numbers 5-4, and Dreamz flips to make it 6-3, so the Horsemen are the next 3 out. Yau goes at 6, and probably Boo at 5. Dreamz wins the F4 challenge, but the F3 twist then comes into play, so my guess is that Cassandra and Dreamz would take out Earl here, and Stacey would win the final vote. S15 plays out the same, except James and JR probably swap places. S16 I haven't watched enough to make a good judgment, but it seems like a lot could have happened without the idol there. S17 changes a lot, especially if the EI twist is removed with the idol. Really hard to make any call here, but my guess is that without Kenny being able to use the idol to flip Sugar, Ace makes F10 and sides back with his original alliance (remember, he hated the Fangs), and odds are that we see a Charlie/Marcus/Corinne final 3, which Charlie probably wins. S18 might change because Sierra might not have gotten Brendan's trust over the first pair of idols, and then the EI alliance probably wouldn't have ever been formed if there were no exile. However, I still think that the premerge and the postmerge would play out mostly the same. S19 plays out the same until the merge. However, since Erik doesn't try to flush out the idol, the Galus don't flip on him and Jaison goes at 12. Russell then follows at 11. This is where things get interesting. The Galu dynamic appears to have looked something like this: Laura/Brett, Laura/Monica/Kelly, Dave/Brett, Kelly/Brett, Erik/John/Dave/(Brett), and Erik/John/Shambo. So Laura/Monica/Kelly/Brett/Dave were going to end up a solid 5 if a straight pagonging occurred, and Brett would have ended up winning. However, John knew that this was coming, Shambo was ready to flip, and he could warn Erik. If Erik doesn't flip, Brett wins, but if he does, the 3 Galus could flip to Mick/Natalie and forced rocks. Mick and Natalie would have been immune, so if Sham/John/Erik draws a rock, Brett still wins. If the more likely event occurs that one of the other ones draw a rock, things get interesting. Brett, Kelly, Monica, or Dave draws the rock, which means that Shambo and John still want Laura gone, and Erik is on board with this. This makes Natalie and Mick the swing votes, and Mick figures that it's probably better to side with the smaller Galu numbers, which makes Natalie the swing vote. She probably would side with the girls and take out Erik, who was John's fall guy. Mick and Natalie understand that they have to whittle down the Galu majority, so they can't stick with any one alliance. Shambo gets her dream about Dave, so Natalie convinces the girls to axe Dave because they don't need him and it helps Natalie's long-term plans. However, if Dave drew the rock, then Shambo could never have had that dream, so who knows what would have happened. God, this is getting way too confusing to speculate, but it would have probably been like 75% chance that Brett would have won.
JPOz		#59	[-]
Posts: 873 (01/07/10 10:57 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	menelaus wrote: S18 might change because Sierra might not have gotten Brendan's trust over the first pair of idols, and then the EI alliance probably wouldn't have ever been formed if there were no exile. However, I still think that the premerge and the postmerge would play out mostly the same. S19 plays out the same until the merge. However, since Erik doesn't try to flush out the idol, the Galus don't flip on him and Jaison goes at 12. Russell then follows at 11. This is where things get interesting. The Galu dynamic appears to have looked something like this: Laura/Brett, Laura/Monica/Kelly, Dave/Brett, Kelly/Brett, Erik/John/Dave/(Brett), and Erik/John/Shambo. So Laura/Monica/Kelly/Brett/Dave were going to end up a solid 5 if a straight pagonging occurred, and Brett would have ended up winning. However, John knew that this was coming, Shambo was ready to flip, and he could warn Erik. If Erik doesn't flip, Brett wins, but if he does, the 3 Galus could flip to Mick/Natalie and forced rocks. Mick and Natalie would have been immune, so if Sham/John/Erik draws a rock, Brett still wins. If the more likely event occurs that one of the other ones draw a rock, things get interesting. Brett, Kelly, Monica, or Dave draws the rock, which means that Shambo and John still want Laura gone, and Erik is on board with this. This makes Natalie and Mick the swing votes, and Mick figures that it's probably better to side with the smaller Galu numbers, which makes Natalie the swing vote. She probably would side with the girls and take out Erik, who was John's fall guy. Mick and Natalie understand that they have to whittle down the Galu majority, so they can't stick with any one alliance. Shambo gets her dream about Dave, so Natalie convinces the girls to axe Dave because they don't need him and it helps Natalie's long-term plans. However, if Dave drew the rock, then Shambo could never have had that dream, so who knows what would have happened. God, this is getting way too confusing to speculate, but it would have probably been like 75% chance that Brett would have won. Thank you for acknowledging that in some seasons HII effected game from the beginning making it nearly impossible to conclude what would have happened. RE Timbira - Stephen repeatedly mentions there was something about Brendan that caused him/Jalapao to distrust him...and Brendan -Coachebag had a power struggle going on...I suspect you are right, Timbira would have fractured anyway. Re Samoa - Without the HII it's not clear winning tribes would have needed to visit losing tribes camp...without that Natalie doesn't bond with Luara, Shambo doesn't bond with Foans and Russhole doesn't raise red flag with Luara....
Axie.rsfd		#60	[-]
Posts: 606 (01/07/10 12:39 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ads - The reason I wake up every morning. Remove this ad JPOz wrote: Re Samoa - Without the HII it's not clear winning tribes would have needed to visit losing tribes camp...without that Natalie doesn't bond with Luara, Shambo doesn't bond with Foans and Russhole doesn't raise red flag with Luara.... Natalie doesn't need to bond with Laura pre-merge to get Erik out on F12, and could bond with her later. Shambo, the Galu hating cuckoo she is, would jump ship if Queefstain talked to her anyway - it would be harder without the idol, though. And yes, maybe Queefstain doesn't raise red flag with Laura, but it doesn't matter - no HII and Queefstain is out F12 or F11 at most.

<< Previous Topic Next Topic >>

Yuku free message boards

If the HII never existed...