Family Final Four in Survivor Speculation Forum

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Family Final Four

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Lady V	FF4: 6 of 7 correct this season ~:)	#1281	[-]
Posts: 764 (12/23/09 02:22 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I know it sounds like I'm in denial, but I'm not. Remove this ad ~~~ Season 15 FF4 Results ~~~ 1) The F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids. (It has 15 of 19 seasons) CORRECT. 2) F4 will not contain two people with the same role. (It has not 14 of 19) CORRECT. 3) There will not be 2 Fs or 2Ms in the F6 (There has not been in 17 of 19). (In the odd situation where there are two Ms or two Fs, one will be a failed M or F.) CORRECT. 4) The F2 will not be two dads nor two moms. (The F2 has never been two dads nor two moms.) CORRECT. 5) The F2 generally will not be two kids. (The F2 have been two kids only 5 of 18) However, in the rare case the F2 is two kids, at least one will be an "unusual" child with strong "adult" (leader) tendencies. CORRECT. 6) The winner will not be E. (The winner has never been an E.) CORRECT. (and we always knew it although we feared it would fail us this season--ah we of little faith!) 7) If a parent is in the F2 with a non-parent, the parent will win. (7 times parent-nonparent has been in F2; 6 times the parent has won... this was an F3) INDETERMINATE (this was an F3), but the D won over the F and E in the F3. Would the F2 have been Natalie and Russell? ************ I think the point we began to make before the merge is worth repeating again and again...those with ill-defined or confused roles have less chance of winning. Of the F6, the most clearly defined roles were the kids' roles, which we commented upon earlier, as well. How disgusted and enraged Russell looked when he lost. Of course, it would never occur to him that there might be something valuable to the jury other than strategy, because that is all he has and all he is. Great job, people! Looking forward to heroes and villians!
birdlady		#1282	[-]
Posts: 3128 (12/23/09 07:36 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	So if the next season is all returnees, that should mean we already know what their roles are? How did that work out in past all-star seasons, did returning players indeed stick with their preferred role?
Lady V		#1283	[-]
Posts: 765 (12/23/09 09:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hey, Birdlady! Lex I think stayed F in both seasons, and so did several other players. I will see if I have that in my notes. Does anyone else have that? Remember it? (If anyone else is still here that is! :)
Tyran Amiros		#1284	[-]
Posts: 258 (12/23/09 11:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	That was pretty close to the beginning of FF4, wasn't it? I don't know if we had ratings for all the players from their original seasons, like Jenna L. In FvF and their original seasons, Cirie and Parvati were still M and D, respectively. I'm not sure about the rest. It will be interesting to see if someone that was a Child in their original season is now an Adult--someone from the early seasons that has had life changes.
spina		#1285	[-]
Posts: 92 (01/09/10 11:37 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	With Samoa, I guess you could actually class it as one big family GALU - Before Day 12 D - Russell M - Laura E - Shambo S (in order of game maturity) - Erik, Dave, John, Brett D (in order of game maturity) - Kelly, Monica, Yasmin GALU - At the merge D - None M - Laura E - Shambo S - Erik, Dave, John, Brett D - Kelly, Monica FOA FOA - Day 3 D Figure - Mick M - Betsy E - Mike, Russell S - Jaison, Ben D - Liz, Ashley, Natalie, Marisa FOA FOA - Day 15 D - Mick M - None E - Russell S - Jaison D - Natalie, Ashley, Liz AIGA - Day 21 D - Mick M - Laura E - Shambo, Russell, S (In order of seniority) - Dave, John, Brett, Erik, Jaison D (In order of seniority) - Monica, Kelly, Natalie AIGA - Day 30 D - Mick (has become F as Galu has disintegrated M - None E - Shambo, Russell S (In order of seniority) - Brett, Dave, Jaison, John D (In order of seniority) - Natalie, Monica AIGA - Day 33 D - Mick M - None E - Shambo S (In order of seniority) - Jaison, Brett D - Natalie AIGA - Day 36 D - Mick M - None E - Shambo and Russell S (In order of seniority) - Brett (now is winning immunity), Jaison D - Natalie FINAL 4 F - Mick M - None E - Russell S - Brett D - Natalie Of the Final 4, only Brett and Natalie were the only ones with clear roles throughout the season, and Brett was screwed the minute his statue dropped. Last Edited By: spina 10/30/10 08:22 PM. Edited 1 times.
Phoenix1269		#1286	[-]
Posts: 794 (01/12/10 09:07 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Lady V wrote: Hey, Birdlady! Lex I think stayed F in both seasons, and so did several other players. I will see if I have that in my notes. Does anyone else have that? Remember it? (If anyone else is still here that is! :) Hey Lady V! Hey Birdlady! Yes - Lex was definately F in both seasons. Others that i have listed (or can remember anyways)...Rob M was S in both. Kathy was more M like in ASS... but still an M/E hybrid. Colby was an S in both seasons. Jenna L was more M in ASS and more D in S1. Amber was D in both. Big Tom was E in both. Rupert was much less E in ASS than in PI, but i think he was still portrayed pretty E with that whole digging the basement for the shelter thing, I guess he could have been F in ASS...and his undying loyalty to Rob M and Jenna L. I don't know what Alicia would be ... an E? a D? either way she was the same in both seasons... angry but loyal. Shii Ann was definitely portrayed D in both seasons. I recall less of the premerge in ASS... but i think Tina was still M (for her one episode) and Jerri was still a D (a much improved D i might add). I think Jenna M was also a D in both seasons. Rudy & Rich? Not sure...but i think they were similarly editted (E & F). Ethan was still an S. Rob C was still an S.... I'm missing someone... Anyways - I think the half-ASS group is pretty similar... Parv, Amanda were still D, Cirie was still M, James was still S, Ozzy was still E-S, Jonathan was still F, Eliza was still D. YauMan was quite INV, so not sure there. Ami was mostly D, even though i think she turned kinda E at the end. JFP was not fully S in my opinion, more F this time. So... I think it is safe to say that overall - unless something major has happened in the players real life, they would likely take on the same role that they had the first time. The big exception in my mind is Jenna L... however, when she first played in S1, her girls were very young still (around a year old), the next time she played, they were 6 or 7, so she had been mom (a single mom at that) for a while and i think that showed in how she played. And JFP would be another, he was much less S this time - more F like really....which reflected the new status that he was going through (baby about to be born, etc). I think Boston Rob (as a new father) may be the one to watch out for this time around as far as big changes go. I think he is the only one of the returnees who has had a significant life change.
birdlady		#1287	[-]
Posts: 3142 (01/12/10 06:03 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	OK, so we're probably starting with: (Edited to fill in Stephenie, Danielle and Sandra) Heroes F JT F Tom M Cirie S Colby S James D Candace D Amanda D Sugar D Stephenie E Rupert Villains F? Russell M Sandra S Tyson S Rob D Parvati D Jerri D Courtney D Danielle E Ben E Randy Interesting lack of parents. I suppose mature people have lives and jobs and stuff.... Looks awfully good for Cirie and Rupert, as well as Sandra and maybe Russell. Does the heroes vs villains construct change anything? A villainous family should still be stable (eg Medicis), right? Last Edited By: birdlady 01/14/10 09:47 AM. Edited 2 times.
Phoenix1269		#1288	[-]
Posts: 795 (01/14/10 08:39 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	StepheME is a D She was a D both in Palau and Guatalmala... Sandra was an M in PI, not a D (Darrah) or and E (Lil). Danielle - I think she was a D in Exile Islands. That was the season where Aras (S) beat her in the finals... where Terry (F) went on that amazing immunity run only to lose out at the end due to a female biased water balance challenge. That season actually had a true FF4... Cirie (M) went out 4th in a tie-breaker. --- ETA.... that is interesting about the lack of Parents. I would ad Sandra in that list as the M on the Villian tribe. I still think Russell is an E... I never really saw him as an F. If i had to pick from the Villian group who would step up to be the most likely F, it would be Rob M. It also looks like either Tom or JT will be among the first to go.... unless JT decides to let Tom be the Father. Last Edited By: Phoenix1269 01/14/10 08:45 AM. Edited 1 times.
birdlady		#1289	[-]
Posts: 3145 (01/14/10 09:59 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think they would ditch daughters first, under the weak-in-challenges rule, but yeah, there's definitely conflict for the male roles. James, I think, is the "best" son. Tom probably the best father. JT was a very young F, and Colby is now a somewhat old S. So I wouldn't be surprised if even of them shifted, if their preferred role is filled. So longevity-wise, maybe it's good that they are flexible, or maybe it's bad that they are wishy-washy. (This is kind of the area that was making me think about whether the heroes/villains division is meaningful. JT and Colby both seem to be great folks to have around camp, practically and socially. Does that make it easier to have a stable non-traditional family structure? As opposed to the "villains" where jeez, you've got destructively E males, and a bad F. Does that lead to some snarly dog family like Russell/Sandra/Tyson/Jerri/Ben?)
Olmec Donald		#1290	[-]
Posts: 1317 (01/16/10 06:56 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I know it sounds like I'm in denial, but I'm not. Remove this ad birdlady wrote: Does that lead to some snarly dog family like Russell/Sandra/Tyson/Jerri/Ben?) It would be pretty funny if we ended up with the Brady Bunch versus a trashy biker family.
coolboy66		#1291	[-]
Posts: 279 (01/20/10 05:21 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	ginger and robet
Lady V	Hey, everyone!	#1292	[-]
Posts: 766 (02/04/10 12:05 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Heroes F JT F Tom (yep, I, too, believe one will go before F8 and the other will be there at least until merge) M Cirie (likely to be there until at least the merge) S Colby S James D Candace D Amanda D Sugar D Stephenie (whoa, there are a LOT of daughters!) E Rupert (looks like he will be in that tribe at least until merge) Villains M Sandra (the only M; there until at least merge) S Tyson S Rob (I agree that Rob will try to be the F) D Parvati D Jerri D Courtney D Danielle (a lot of daughters, again--I agree, many Ds should go before the merge) E Ben, Russell, Randy (one too many--same as on Heroes--and 2 Es who think they are Fs) F6: F: JT or Tom; M: Cirie or Sandra; E: Rupert, Russell, Randy, or Ben; and 3 kids
Hippochinfat		#1293	[-]
Posts: 663 (02/04/10 03:14 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Since it's an ASS and everyone has specific people they're targeting, I don't think so and so staying until the merge because of their family role will matter in this one like it does in other seasons.
Lady V		#1294	[-]
Posts: 767 (02/04/10 11:38 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hippochinfat, that may well be true. Yet, I wanted to put the FF4 predictions out there before the season started--first time ever!! From watching the "Surviving Survivor" show tonight, two things struck me. One: "I'm scared of strong women." -- Russell. Russell is an E. No F is "afraid of strong women." Two: Parvati, Tom, Coach, and Cirie were the most memorable to me (oh, look! a family!), followed by Russell, Colby, Jerri, and James. Huh. Edited to add: I forgot about Stephenie, actually. Last Edited By: Lady V 02/05/10 12:45 AM. Edited 1 times.
fat little fingers		#1295	[-]
Posts: 6403 (02/11/10 11:05 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I've been so out of it, I didn't even know about the prelude episode. But, tonight's 2 hour opener reinforced Lady V's wanting to stay focused on the family dynamics aspect, even though these aren't newcomers. Sugar's needs were certainly evident and James clearly seemed unable to approach the game any differently than he had in the past. Their lack of Survivor virginity is certainly going to complicate and throw some loops into FF4, but it will also be interesting to see just how much family dynamics play out, despite their self-conscious awareness of their reputations and history. My opening take: Heroes F/S JT - Seeks out the other country boy, James. That's interesting. Seeks out other hero/winner, Tom. Equally interesting. I don't know if he will be more Son than Father this time around. F Tom - Definitely a Father figure. Grounding for Steph and others. A successful Father is someone who can ground his tribe. (Note: I think RobM shows that quality.) M Cirie - Another figure who grounds and guides. A definite Mother. Might go far if the ASS factor doesn't get her. S Colby - Oh yeah, a Son. Colby will be Colby. S James - Ditto, Son. Same action guy who admits his big weakness is the mind game. It will do him in again, I predict. D Candace - Daughter. Really smart lady in her real life, if she remembers to use her brains this time. D Amanda - She shows some of the biggest growth to me in the game. They teased her about her speaking up at the TC. D Sugar - Our first victim of FF4. She needed a male protector to cling to and she hung herself. Poor girl has real self-worth issues that caused her to throw away a win the first time around, and self-destruct again this time. Believe in yourself, Sugar! D Stephenie - Same tough cookie. Gravitated to Daddy Tom real fast. E Rupert Rupie seems headed for OTT land again. (Oops, Edgic talk.) If he's willing to play the loyal Eccentric again, he may go far. But, won't win, again. Villains M Sandra -shrewd, observant and still much the unsentimental Mother. S Tyson - So much of his thing is an act, but still a Son. We see his schitck, but he seems to keep his mouth shut and a low profile when necessary. F/S Rob - All are aware that he and Russell will vie for top dog position. He provided legitimate Father behavior in the fire and his observation that they needed to start drinking water and build team spirit. For now, he could go either way: Father or Son. I saw a lot of Father this episode. D Parvati - Still the Daughter. Will sexual flirtation work with this bunch? D Jerri - Jerri has always come close to an Eccentric for me. She is always skirting being a loner and outsider. I think she's always been more emotionally vulnerable in the game than she's ever been credited. And it's never been a game strength for her in the game. D Courtney - Older, wiser, but still the bad Sister. D Danielle - Older, wiser, but essentially the same Daughter. E Coach - Talks Leader, but acts Follower. A bromance for Rob's skills. "Successful" (though never winners) Eccentrics are followers. E Randy- A calmer Randy, because he's not on an idiot tribe of losers. But, still seems the same Randy. That would mean another loyal follower. E Russel - Eccentric, yes. Loyal follower, no. He's an Eccentric with an aggressive ambition to win. Not in the classic mold, but definitely not a Father (protector, provider, leader). At this point, I'm most impressed by RobM's Father behavior. They even include the confessional where he tells us that his priorities have changed with marriage and fatherhood. Last Edited By: fat little fingers 02/14/10 03:33 PM. Edited 1 times.
AbbyGirl		#1296	[-]
Posts: 97 (02/12/10 12:41 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hi, can I join in? I've read here from time to time and there have been some interesting posts. I have only posted in Edgic and have not been spoiled, so hopefully you all will think it's okay for me to be here. :) I am trying to figure out a family final six (later will come the family final four). Going on the first episode's edits and the family final four theory, here are my thoughts: Tom and Rob are the best picks for father figure. Rupert, Randy, Coach, Russell are definite eccentrics. Sandra, Cirie, Jerri (this time around she is) are mother figures. The rest are all sons and daughters. So in the final six I could see one of Tom or Rob, one of Rupert, Randy, Coach or Russell, one of Sandra, Cirie or Jerri, three sons and daughters. My picks for those are (going on their edits tonight): Candice, Colby, Parvati, JT, Stephenie Possible family F6: (Example only) Rob, Coach, Jerri, Candice, JT, Stephenie
Lady V	Ep 1	#1297	[-]
Posts: 769 (02/12/10 01:14 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hey there, FLF! (<----Lady V waves wildly, jumping up and down--overly enthusiastic, perhaps, but there it is) I've missed you around here. Now, I, too, was struck by Rob M's F behavior. Seems earlier speculation (Phoenix?) about him perhaps having changed due to marriage and childrearing may be right on. He seems...subdued. Maybe he is sad at having left his little family at home. The preview was scary for next ep, though. Perhaps it is just dehydration. So far, he looks more F than S, but we shall see. Jerri looks more E to me than D, but no one looks spectacularly E to me (yet?) except for Russell. I found myself bored with him tonight. We have WAY too many Ds, and too many Es, so FF4 would expect the Ds and Es to make up the boots over the next several weeks. Sugar, D, first one gone... and I kept thinking about birdlady's comment about the Villians and their family structure. They are villians primarily because they are "individualists" (putting it kindly); not good for a tribe. Abbygirl, welcome! We are a friendly group, kind to strangers. ~:) We all seem to be close to being on the same page already. Let the games begin! (those games, too! my husband knows a woman who is dancing in the opening ceremonies--she's an aerial gymnast, in the magic grove segment, in grey and white--the one who shoots up into the air! can't wait!) Last Edited By: Lady V 02/12/10 01:20 AM. Edited 1 times.
birdlady		#1298	[-]
Posts: 3174 (02/12/10 10:22 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	F/S JT - Seeks out the other country boy, James. That's interesting. Seeks out other hero/winner, Tom. Equally interesting. I don't know if he will be more Son than Father this time around. But apparently not country boy/loyal runner up, Colby. Some of the preshow interviews suggested some sort of hook-up or flirtation between JT and Sugar, yet in the episode we saw her targeting Colby. Were there some dynamics going on that we weren't shown, which the family neatly and unanimously eliminated by booting Sugar? James is physically stronger, of course, but Colby seems like a stronger ally overall. A young F/older S pair could be interesting. D Jerri - Jerri has always come close to an Eccentric for me. She is always skirting being a loner and outsider. I think she's always been more emotionally vulnerable in the game than she's ever been credited. And it's never been a game strength for her in the game. Me, too. I get where she was "villainous" early in the game in Outback, but by the time of that deserted island reward with Colby, I thought it had gotten to be sad. At the time, I felt like she was going to be pretty embarassed and hurt when she got home, got unstressed, and then saw herself on tv. It does seem like these folks have a lot of clarity about their roles. (I know they're not intentionally placing themselves in our little boxes, but they are show clear and consistent behaviour.) These are all people with some success at Survivor, so the easy role definition probably supports that people with confused roles get booted early.
Lady V		#1299	[-]
Posts: 770 (02/12/10 04:12 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	birdlady wrote: D Jerri - Jerri has always come close to an Eccentric for me. She is always skirting being a loner and outsider. I think she's always been more emotionally vulnerable in the game than she's ever been credited. And it's never been a game strength for her in the game. Me, too. I get where she was "villainous" early in the game in Outback, but by the time of that deserted island reward with Colby, I thought it had gotten to be sad. At the time, I felt like she was going to be pretty embarassed and hurt when she got home, got unstressed, and then saw herself on tv. It does seem like these folks have a lot of clarity about their roles. (I know they're not intentionally placing themselves in our little boxes, but they are show clear and consistent behaviour.) These are all people with some success at Survivor, so the easy role definition probably supports that people with confused roles get booted early. I agree with you, birdlady (hi!!). I'd expect anyone with a confused role after next ep to go very early, indeed, since they are mostly pretty easy to define now. As for Colby/Tom/JT/James, did you mean younger father Colby or JT? With older son James/Colby? I got confused there. The rumors about JT and Sugar were interesting--and I, too, wonder if something was going on there that the Colby flirtation was meant to hide, but didn't quite. I can't remember JT's reaction to the idea of voting her off; was he reluctant to vote Sugar off at first?
birdlady		#1300	[-]
Posts: 3176 (02/12/10 04:35 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I know it sounds like I'm in denial, but I'm not. Remove this ad A young F/older S pair could be interesting. JT and Colby. I would have guessed they have the most similar cultural background, somewhat more so than either of them with James.

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