Remember the "King of All Media?"

For many people, Howard Stern has been off the radar since he moved to satellite radio more than four years ago. But in recent days it is not just his loyal subscribers who have been hearing about him. A report that he's in the running to judge "American Idol" has proved surprisingly persistent, despite the usual conjecture that he's just putting us on.

Whether or not the caustic comic is ready for family-friendly prime time—a person close to the show called the notion "insane"—the "Idol" speculation has helped Mr. Stern succeed at returning to the center of attention long after leaving the public airwaves.

"God, this is getting a lot of ink," he crowed recently on his show, as he fantasized about a $100 million "Idol" salary, tore down judge Ellen DeGeneres and played clips of TV pundits parsing the rumors.

Simon Cowell, the judge Mr. Stern supposedly would replace, dismissed the idea Thursday night in a conference call with reporters. "I'm fairly certain that there hasn't been an approach at any time for Howard to do the show," Mr. Cowell said.

Howard Stern: On and Off the Air

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The chatter comes as one of the entertainment industry's highest-profile contracts is coming to an end in December: the five-year, $500 million deal that brought Mr. Stern and his crew to Sirius. It was a bold investment for the then-fledgling satellite-radio company, which desperately needed a big name to attract paying subscribers and build the brand.

It worked. An estimated two million of his fans ponied up for satellite receivers and about $13 monthly to subscribe to Sirius, which survived to merge with XM and now has nearly 19 million subscribers combined. But the company isn't likely to gamble $500 million again. "In the past we were forced to do whatever it took to get the content," CEO Mel Karmazin told investors last fall. Now, without head-to-head competition, Sirius XM has been able to strike "market-rate deals" with talent.

Back in the spotlight at 56 years old, Mr. Stern finds himself at a crossroads in the culture. To nonsubscribers he is out of the conversation and, perhaps worse for the onetime "shock jock," harmless: In the three years after Mr. Stern went to satellite, total complaints to the Federal Communications Commission about indecency fell by half compared with the previous three-year period. Yet to most of his followers on satellite, he has reached new heights of comedy now that censors aren't policing his every word. These fans are more devoted than ever; 72% of Mr. Stern's current listeners say they almost never switch off to other Sirius XM channels, according to media research firm Bridge Ratings.

Mr. Stern has many options, though few that offer the wide exposure he once enjoyed. He could plunge into television and film, where he has experience both on screen and as a producer. Terrestrial radio broadcasters would line up to have him back. But the industry is struggling with shrinking ad revenue, and going back on the public airwaves would entangle the host in broadcasting rules he fought so hard to escape. Mr. Stern and Sirius XM didn't respond to requests for comment.

He could also jump to the Internet, where he could build his own network and sell access through subscriptions. That would be a pioneering move, but it might represent a step down to a man steeped in the mass medium of radio. Instead, many analysts and radio experts expect Mr. Stern to re-up at satellite, but to take a pay cut in exchange for less time on the air, freeing him up to pursue other projects.

Mr. Stern's decision will be a bet on which direction media is heading, reflecting a big debate that he's seen both sides of. Which is the future–traditional ad-supported platforms like "Idol," or models in which subscribers pay for content?

Mr. Stern's leverage, of course, depends on whether the Sirius years have diminished his stature in the media food chain. Many argue not to underestimate him, including enduring guest Quentin Tarantino. Last summer, the "Inglourious Basterds" director's remarks on air about partying with actor Brad Pitt ricocheted around the world. "After I do the Howard show, people come up to me for the next f—ing six months and say, 'Man, I loved you on Howard!' " Mr. Tarantino says.

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Howard Stern on Sirius in 2006, above. The poster for his movie 'Private Parts,' 1997, below.

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Sirius XM's subscriber rolls don't reflect the extent of Mr. Stern's reach. Citizens of Howard Nation upload his radio shows and on-demand TV clips to the Internet almost immediately after they air. On the Pirate Bay, an online clearinghouse for free music and movies, there are about 850 Stern episodes available, and some as old as eight months are still being actively downloaded and discussed, according to the research firm BigChampagne.

There's no question Mr. Stern has cut loose inside the satellite paywall, punctuating his comments with expletives and delving into the minutiae of bodily functions. Still, devotees of the show have always argued that such hijinks cloud the core of Mr. Stern's appeal.

"The show is so great and so complicated, but non-listeners think it's just lesbians making out and porn stars taking off their tops," says Ira Glass, host of "This American Life" and an icon of genteel public radio. A fan going back to the 1980s, Mr. Glass compares Mr. Stern to Jack Benny in the way he conducts a shifting tableau of comic characters. Yet it was often Mr. Stern himself who played up the salacious shtick of his show during public appearances. "It was better for business, but as a result, he's had to live with the fact the show is widely misperceived," Mr. Glass says.

Mr. Stern plays the father figure to a sprawling family of employees, associates and social misfits with nicknames like Medicated Pete, Eric the Midget and Jeff the Drunk. For all his guests, from D-listers to stars including Benicio Del Toro and Ozzy Osbourne recently, the most compelling moments of the show amount to eavesdropping on a room full of bickering co-workers. Hours are devoted to supposed slights and missteps, such as the bar stools that producer Gary Dell'Abate selected for his home theater—an apparent decorating gaffe that Mr. Stern excoriates him for.

Two Sirius channels carry Mr. Stern's programming, including his flagship drive-time show and bulletins from a news team that covers the boss and the personalities in his orbit. Mr. Dell'Abate (better known as Baba Booey) hosts a regular "Wrap Up Show" in which fellow staffers and callers attempt to divine Mr. Stern's way of thinking, including his plans for their collective future. "I won't say I'm looking for a job, but what are my options?" Mr. Dell'Abate said recently to a caller.

Hanging on each word are listeners like Danny DelloBuono, who wears a Philadelphia Phillies jersey autographed by various Stern underlings. As a caller, Mr. DelloBuono has made it onto the air some 50 times, he boasts, usually on the "Wrap Up" show, where he invariably insults Baba Booey's favorite baseball team, the Mets. Mr. DelloBuono, 41 years old, launched his call-in campaign after he was laid off as a union carpenter last year and began spending more time with Stern and company. "I listen to them more than my own family," says Mr. DelloBuono, who fears that next year Mr. Stern will leave Sirius or cut back his hours significantly. "The window of opportunity was closing up and I wanted to reach these guys. I want to listen to the last second," he says.

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Howard Stern with sidekick Robin Quivers at WXRK, 1993.

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Last Saturday night, Mr. DelloBuono was handing out CD compilations of his recorded calls at a Ramada Inn outside Philadelphia, where about 200 fellow fans had gathered to hear several comics, all part of the sprawling Stern ecosystem. The gig was headlined by insult comic Rev. Bob Levy, who does a weekly panel show, "The Miserable Men," on one of Mr. Stern's channels. A camera crew followed Mr. Levy that night for a reality series Mr. Levy hopes to launch, but using the Stern connection comes with strings attached. Mr. Levy's reality producers say they met with Mr. Stern's program director, Tim Sabean, in hopes of shooting inside the Sirius studios. But gaining such access would require giving up some ownership of the project to Mr. Stern.

Mr. Levy speculated that Mr. Stern will sign up for another two years at Sirius—not that the host has confided in him or anyone else outside his small inner circle. Whatever the decision, the comics expressed optimism that they'd be swept along with Mr. Stern into the third act of his career. "Howard always takes care of his people," Mr. Levy says. A Stern staffer and comic who goes by the name Shuli adds, "We're all barnacles on the S.S. Stern."

What would it mean for satellite radio if Mr. Stern exited? Unloading the costly host and his team would be a short-term gain for the company's bottom line. Yet that savings would vanish if subscribers bailed in big numbers, analysts say. Going into negotiations, Sirius XM's challenge is to accurately predict that churn. "If they think they wouldn't lose many subscribers, they need to sharpen the pencil," says Barrington Research analyst James Goss.

Bristling at claims that he was feeding the rumor mill to strengthen his negotiating position, Mr. Stern said on the air recently, "Sirius already knows my value to this company…Am I that lame that I need 'American Idol' to negotiate?"