S-22 Edgic (editing and logic) in Survivor Speculation Forum

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S-22 Edgic (editing and logic)

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Oowatanite		#1601	[-]
Posts: 13016 (03/20/11 07:30 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Pshhhh we have secret to share Remove this ad RedCoffee wrote: Andrea got an INV in a terrible episode to receive one. No idea why this has basically been forgotten one week later. The CP recency effect is part of it but I remember people all but writing her off. We go from that to "near unanimous favorite?" And, in one week, Natalie has gone from 'a top contender' to 'completely written off'. I think there's gonna be A LOT of jumping in Edgic in the coming weeks, from one bandwagon to another and back again ....
Phoenix1269		#1602	[-]
Posts: 973 (03/20/11 08:13 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Axie wrote: Phoenix1269 wrote: • Double OTT to start does not win Jud's E1 was an OTT, but not his E2. His E2 was a MOR... so no... Jud is not a valid rebuttal as he does not have a double OTT start. If you want to refute something please be sure of your facts. thanks ;) eta: Thanks RedCoffee!!! Last Edited By: Phoenix1269 03/20/11 08:23 PM. Edited 1 times.
fat little fingers		#1603	[-]
Posts: 6638 (03/20/11 08:26 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think there's gonna be A LOT of jumping in Edgic in the coming weeks, from one bandwagon to another and back again .... I think the argument for her being at the top and now completely eliminated were thoroughly outlined each week. She always had requirements attached to maintaining her position. To call eliminating Natalie as jumping ignores the requirement to prove that she would fulfill the contradiction that we saw between the two confessionals in the Ep2 beach scene. That she be more than Rob baggage and make moves of her own. I was giving her until the merge, but the scenes and SPV she received this ep can't be overcome. Just can't, period. Now I need to throw everything I can to tear down Andrea's edit.
Jedijake		#1604	[-]
Posts: 6721 (03/20/11 09:18 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Jenna, Parvati, and even Amber were all called lazy at some point. Natalie should not be written off, but rather moved down one or a few slots this week. Her negativity was overshadowed by Ashley. I fear that Andrea could suffer inevitable fate and that her spike this past week could be a bad omen. If that's the case, where do we go from there? Andrea's top contender spot by most of the people here is from this past week only. That, as we well know, could change in a flash.
SFC		#1605	[-]
Posts: 1132 (03/20/11 09:23 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Jedijake wrote: Jenna, Parvati, and even Amber were all called lazy at some point. Jenna, Parvati, and even Amber didnt have a UTR1-MOR2-INV1-MOR3 to start the season either
jonnyfairplay		#1606	[-]
Posts: 204 (03/20/11 09:26 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	admittedly, andrea's my #1 contender... but again, CP RECENCY BIAS!!!
survivorgirl22		#1607	[-]
Posts: 885 (03/20/11 09:32 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	yeah I think Andrea's the top contender at this point.The thing about Natalie is yes she had the confessional in ep 2 about "making big moves with Rob" but so far that hasn't really come to fruition,granted it's only ep 6. On the other hand,her and Ashley are basically playing the same exact game only Ashley is getting the brunt of the negativity. I don't think Natalie wins but I think she's a late-gamer. Last Edited By: survivorgirl22 03/20/11 09:35 PM. Edited 2 times.
dotsdfe		#1608	[-]
Posts: 413 (03/20/11 09:37 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I still don't think that Sarita/Mike can be written off. Julie/Ralph/Steve are clearly doomed, but I think Sarita/Mike have a good deal of potential to, at the very least, go far. There's just something about their edits that strikes me as odd, they aren't getting the "We're arrogant and we can't lose!" edits that J/R/S are getting.
BlakeB717		#1609	[-]
Posts: 3789 (03/20/11 09:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	SFC wrote: Jedijake wrote: Jenna, Parvati, and even Amber were all called lazy at some point. Jenna, Parvati, and even Amber didnt have a UTR1-MOR2-INV1-MOR3 to start the season either In a season with uber distractions Rob and Russell, it's unlikely that she's going to receive the significance that any of those women received this early. Note that Heidi and Jenna were the same people in reality, but in the edit Heidi got the nastiness. Note KQ's comments on Jenna: "Now on to Jenna. She stood out from the start because Heidi and Deena were all talking about Jenna, yet was very much in the brackground. Also Heidi was taking all the OTT hits while Jenna was probably say and doing the same thing. The real clincher came as the game moved along. We were able to eliminate most of the other players from winning. When everyone thought Matt would win, we knew that he was too OTT as was RobC (also we knew that Matt was not as well liked based on reading between the lines) . We had Jenna by episode 4, but as the game got closer to the end we knew we were right. Steady middle of the road editing, medium visibilty and surprise ending all fit here, as does the complex tribe. " Natalie's edit has never been negative until this episode, where Ashley took the brunt. Note that Natalie received no confessionals: Ashley is the one against Phillip, and being fake with Andrea. The editors carefully ignore Natalie. This may be seen as a bad thing, but Natalie gets the connection to Rob that Ashley and Grant don't have: Rob actually wants her around. If her edit is "so poor" and "no story," why has this pairing been emphasized so strongly so early? Why not ignore her and Darrah her and call her lazy until the end where Rob says "I've decided to take Natalie because she's useless".. why the focus of taking her to the end all the way in EPISODE TWO. Natalie has not been totally shafted, with a 2-2-1-3-1 visibility thus far, she has yet to be "double ignored" for 2 episodes in a row even. Danni at this point was UTR2-MOR2-UTR2-UTR2-MOR3.. not that much better. Same deal in that season as well, two returning players who hogged airtime (Well, StepheME certainly did..) and Danni got a minor storyline with Gary when she really wasn't all that interesting and the storyline didn't amount to anything significant (I believe we were told it to keep her on the map early) and Danni had comments connecting to the theme early (Natalie talks about Rob in E1, and also has a connection to Rob that nobody else seems to have--why show this so early?) It seems suspicious. I have my eye on it, especially since I think Rob loses... where does this leave Natalie? We'll see
Oowatanite		#1610	[-]
Posts: 13017 (03/20/11 09:51 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Pshhhh we have secret to share Remove this ad fat little fingers wrote: I think there's gonna be A LOT of jumping in Edgic in the coming weeks, from one bandwagon to another and back again .... I think the argument for her being at the top and now completely eliminated were thoroughly outlined each week. She always had requirements attached to maintaining her position. To call eliminating Natalie as jumping ignores the requirement to prove that she would fulfill the contradiction that we saw between the two confessionals in the Ep2 beach scene. That she be more than Rob baggage and make moves of her own. I was giving her until the merge, but the scenes and SPV she received this ep can't be overcome. Just can't, period. Now I need to throw everything I can to tear down Andrea's edit. Nat did not build upon her Ep2 edit in Ep4, but she was still #1 with you edgically. Then Ep5 came around and Natalie went from #1 edgic winner pick to completely eliminated, all due to ONE measly UTRN1 episode. WOW ..........
chapera rocks		#1611	[-]
Posts: 14073 (03/20/11 09:58 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Don't have time for more, so a shorter post than usual: SURVIVOR REDEMPTION ISLAND: EPISODE 5 FINAL RATINGS Andrea - CPP3 Ashley - OTTN3 Grant - UTR3 Natalie - UTRN1 Phillip - CPM4 Rob - CP4 David - MOR2 Julie - MOR4 Krista - CPP4 Mike - MOR4 Ralph - UTR1 Sarita - MORN3 Stephanie - CPP5 Steve - MOR3 Matt - MOR2 Kristina - UTRP1 Winner Discussion: 1. Natalie Her stock is slowly slipping. A very bad episode for her, but we can't ignore the fact that Ashley took the brunt of the negativity. 2. Andrea A good episode for her. She's established a long term connection that could play out with great significance. [Enormous gap] 3. Sarita She's hanging on by a thread, without question. But even though this episode looked to have doomed the Zapatera 6, I still don't feel 100% confident with eliminating her yet. No one else stands out! Eliminated: Ashley, Grant, David, Julie, Mike, Ralph, Stephanie, Steve Hanging on barely: Rob, Phillip, Krista, Matt With regards to the 4 people I haven't eliminated yet... I was too quick to jump to eliminating Rob and Phillip, and thats because my experience with edgic winner picks is limited... this is the first real season I've gotten this in depth. With Rob, I doubt he wins, but if he did... I don't know if he'd be edited differently. If he makes the finals, he's winning. He hasn't had the story of why he lost yet. With Phillip, he's also barely hanging on. Remember this: if Phillip had won, would he have been edited differently? They can't edit out the gold he provided them with. However, if he had won, perhaps his strategy wouldn't be so readily mocked at every opportunity. But to be fair, the story is taking a turn in his favor... the edit is starting to side with him. If Matt won, I feel his boot would be presented as unjustified. It was presented as a great move. Krista... because she was the only one shielded from Zapatera's negativity. Still in:
Oowatanite		#1612	[-]
Posts: 13018 (03/20/11 10:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Oo's Final Ratings Episode 5 Omega Rob MOR4 Andrea CPP3 Ashley MORN3 Grant UTR3 Natalie UTRN1 Phillip CPN4 Zapata David MORN3 Julie MOR3 Krista CP4 Mike MORN4 Ralph UTRN1 Sarita MOR3 Stephanie OTT5 Steve UTR3 *Rhode Island* Kristina UTRP1 Matt MOR2 WINNER LIST 1. Natalie 2. Andrea 3. Rob 4. Matt Eliminated : everyone else Last Edited By: Oowatanite 03/20/11 10:08 PM. Edited 1 times.
Lemun		#1613	[-]
Posts: 505 (03/21/11 12:38 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Final Ratings Ometepe Andrea – CPP3 Ashley – OTTN3 Grant – MOR2 Kristina – UTR1 Matt – MOR1 Natalie - UTRN1 Phillip - CP4 Rob – MOR4 Zapatera David – MORN3 Julie – MORN4 Krista – CP4 Mike - MOR4 Ralph – UTRN1 Sarita – MORN3 Stephanie – MORM5 Steve - UTRP2 Picks 1. Andrea 2. Rob 3. Natalie 4. Sarita
getting real		#1614	[-]
Posts: 2113 (03/21/11 12:47 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Now I need to throw everything I can to tear down Andrea's edit. For me, Andrea's edit took a fatal blow, not so much in episode 4 but earlier, when the editorializing took Rob's side when he turned on his alliance so early. The words 'Then Rob took his game to a new level' would not have been the way to describe a move that would eventually lead to Andrea winning.
getting real		#1615	[-]
Posts: 2114 (03/21/11 12:53 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	CR said: Remember this: if Phillip had won, would he have been edited differently? They can't edit out the gold he provided them with. However, if he had won, perhaps his strategy wouldn't be so readily mocked at every opportunity. But to be fair, the story is taking a turn in his favor... the edit is starting to side with him. If Phillip didn't win they needn't have gone to the trouble of giving him the subtle layers of complexity that they have given him. In this unque season, he may well win, although I suspect he's mainly an end-game player.
Shred		#1616	[-]
Posts: 4158 (03/21/11 12:54 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Honestly I think Natalie is gonna be the new Jenna Morasca. Say what you want about Jenna being more visible earlly on. But that was season 6 where everyone including Janet got great time. It is now season 22. Mostly everyone gets the shaft editng wise (Look at Natalie White and Sandra I mean someone who was gonna WIN TWICE goes six episodes with no confessional) . Also we have Rob and Russell to deal with. Hiding Natalie with Ashley was a very Jenna and Heidi moment. I truly think episode 2 told us. Rob thinks he can easily beat Natalie but she makes moves and she gets the jury votes.
Lazy Lurker		#1617	[-]
Posts: 32 (03/21/11 06:53 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Final Ratings Redeption Island Matt - UTR2, the interaction between Matt and Rob could have been so much more. Closure for the audience is yet to come. Kristina - UTR1, this lackluster exit ices her chances of being an all-star. Ometepe Rob – MOR4, his actions were N but they were not toned by edit. Everything he said was rehash, narration or silliness. Andrea – CPP2, but I agree that her scene with Phillip was edited to be Phillip's move not Andrea's - which may mean it is doomed for failure. Ashley – MORN3, I am saving the OTT for the next episode. Grant – MOR3, visible but not impactful Natalie - UTRN1, not completely isolated from the 'lazy girl' edit. Would have liked to see say 'social game' or 'conserving energy' in a confessional; saying nothing really hurts her edit. Phillip - CP4, great episode for Phillip; he is obviously being edited to create doubt for Rob's story, or as and end-game OTT loser. Zapatera Russell - UTR2 David – MORN3, his outburst is negative. If the editors wanted to shield him from this they would have shown confessionals given after heads cooled off. Julie – MOR3, the editors used an old confessional to throw the karma aspect back in our faces; bad for Zap's chances. Krista – CP4 Mike - MORN4, he is very negative toward the girls Ralph – UTRN1, complete buffoon during the challenge. Sarita – MORN3, on rewatch she clearly takes the editorially blame for the IC loss. Stephanie – CP4 Steve - UTR2, I wanted to give Steve tone; but I can't decide because he says they are a family but the episode pretty much contradicts that statement. Power Ranking 1. Andrea 2. Stephanie 3. Natalie 4. Rob Eliminated: Ashley, Grant, Phillip, Julie, Krista, Ralph, Steve
fat little fingers		#1618	[-]
Posts: 6639 (03/21/11 09:29 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	all due to ONE measly UTRN1 episode. WOW .......... Your argument is based solely on the ratings. I placed Natalie at the top due to content and took her out of the running, due to content. She is undoubtedly Rob's partner, so her story and visibility will pick up. She probably also has longevity. If Rob makes the jury, (his confessional is all about the jury deciding his fate), he has defined his fate in terms of Natalie. He told us he hopes they will give him the win after dragging her ass to the finish. So, if he makes the end, I expect her to be there with him. But, Edgic isn't about guessing the stories or plot. We can, though, make assumptions on "survivability" based on content. In fact, we can't make a winner pick without considering content. (Ratings, after all, are just a shorthand charting of the content.) Worthiness has always been a key element in the winner's profile. It's my observation that when a character gets one scene of unworthiness, the edit never forgets. Natalie almost avoided the curse of the Armpit Girls, (while Ashley did all the talking), until the edit included her part in the skin peel scene. That one little moment confirmed all that Andrea told us about the two girls and Natalie will never shake it. I don't know how she can redeem herself after she has confirmed the opinion of Rob, Phillip, and Andrea. Her chances have fallen to zero. Zero. Unfortunately, both Rob and Natalie have a high probability of being there for the duration, so I don't expect this to be a comfortable season for Edgic, no matter who one's pick is.
Pyre		#1619	[-]
Posts: 495 (03/21/11 09:43 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Final ratings: RI Matt - UTR2 (On second glance, not much positivity besides him winning the challenge) Kristina - UTR1 (Skewed P, but not enough) Ometepe Andrea - CPP3 Ashley - MORN2 (Borderline OTT) Grant - UTR3 Natalie - UTRN1 Phillip - CPM4 (We were supposed to feel sympathetic to him but still got his antics and bad SPV) Rob - MOR4 Zapatera David - MORN2 (We were supposed to side with him but his outburst after the challenge was still negative) Julie - MOR2 Krista - CPN3 Mike- MOR4 Ralph- UTR1 (Not anywhere near enough for N tone) Sarita - MOR2 Stephanie - CPN4 Steve - UTR2 Winners: 1) Andrea 2) Matt 3) Rob 4) Mike Eliminated: Ashley, Grant, Phillip, Julie, Steve, Ralph, Krista
fat little fingers		#1620	[-]
Posts: 6640 (03/21/11 10:00 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Pshhhh we have secret to share Remove this ad gr: For me, Andrea's edit took a fatal blow, not so much in episode 4 but earlier, when the editorializing took Rob's side when he turned on his alliance so early. The words 'Then Rob took his game to a new level' would not have been the way to describe a move that would eventually lead to Andrea winning. But, Rob's "game" was aimed at Kristina and Phillip in that quote. And Jeff's comment the week before: "...his only speed bumps to the end were Phillip...and...Kristina..." Rob's game is being defined as "the undisputed tribal leader", who has no one in his way, except Phillip. Equally, the edit has built Phillip up as his nemesis. Ep 5's strategic scenes are all about Phillip's moves. Interestingly the most complex content of the entire episode is the comments and scenes about Andrea's situation and feelings. She is not the big noise of the episode. If she was, I would agree with you. This ep did a number of promising things for Andrea's edit: It separated her from the other women in a positive way. It illustrated how she was hiding her true feelings and was biding her time. It refreshed her strategic connection to Matt. It extended her story into the future. Most importantly, it did all this very subtly and low-key. I will even indulge in noting how the shot of her chopping reminds us of her Ep1 chopping scene and our intro to who she is and how she plays (ie., a pretty, but surprisingly capable farm girl who will keep her opinions and feelings to herself.)

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S-22 Edgic (editing and logic)