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Initial Ratings:

Albert - INV1
Brandon - OTTM5
Christine - UTRM2
Coach - CP4
Cochran - CP4
Dawn - UTR1
Edna - INV1
Elyse - MOR2
Jim - MORN3
Keith - CP2
Mark Anthony - CP5
Mikayla - CPP5
Ozzy - CP4
Rick - INV1
Sophie - MOR2
Stacey - UTR1
Whitney - UTR2


Semhar - OTT1 :-D

Possible winners:

Coach (the man to beat)
Mikayla
Cochran
Jim
Ozzy

and MAYBE Papa Bear/Mark Anthony if he were to return from RI, which I doubt.


^ All of the above had a story of their own, rather than being part of someone else's story.

Unlikely winners:

Dawn - Her story seems to be put on hold, and unless she has a meltdown soon, I do not see Dawn getting booted early. Her story radiates longevity, as she -FOR THE SECOND TIME- was outed as the strongest woman on Savaii. Note that only Dawn and Mikayla have gotten "she's strong SPV" which makes me think at least one of them goes in a RI Run. Furthermore I can definitely see her get a typical type AB (?) winner's edit, the one HvVSandra, Chris and Parvati have gotten. She seems to fit that type perfectly. In any case, since her story is put on hold in favor of more likely contenders AND because she's on the outs on Savaii, it seems wise to underrate her chances for the time being.

Sophie & Edna - Their sole purposes seem to be foil to the two biggest characters of the season (Coach & Lil Hantz), with Sophie piling on NSPV on Brandon and Edna glorifying Coach. Unless their arcs become more about themselves soon, I would doubt either is the winner.

Elyse - Seems just about memorable enough for an UTR winner, but needs a story of her own soon. The fact her edit could have been a LOT worse (like poor Whitney's) indirectly pleads in her favor.


Keith - I cannot get past the fact his edit always seems to skew negativity (which isn't good for Keith as he has all the makings of a P-toned character) and his awful UTR premiere. Otherwise however, Keith's edit is actually quite good. The Grant comparisons are fitting, BUT not 100% accurate. Unlike Grant, Keith is SHOWN playing his own game and making his own moves, rather than being a blind Ozzy minion. I can see him win.... if by some random stroke of luck everybody else mentionned so far drops dead or smth. :-P



Definitely NOT winning:

Albert - No story whatsoever. Obviously, the editors don't want us to get attached to what seems to be an attractive, intelligent, articulate and charismatic alpha-male. Maybe he gets blindsided by the eventual winner, whoever that may be?

Stacey - Stacey has no purpose whatsoever. You'd expect that if she won, we'd -you know- actually get her thoughts on her and Christine being targeted by Coach? Or at least Coach wouldn't be getting such a positive, understanding edit. Nah, I just don't see any occasion where Stacey can win, which is regrettable.

Rick - lol. Is he even on the show?

Whitney - despite being in a clearly definted five-some + a two-person alliance with Keith AND having a seemingly key role in Keith's individual gameplay, Whitney hasn't received a single confessional or focus whatsoever. It seems obvious the focus of the story lies on everybody surrounding her. Like Albert, she has all the makings of a character which could be liked by the casual audience but is subdued and ignored for some reason.

Brandon - I had already eliminated him, but now Brandon himself confirms that being true and honest (or whatever crap he's yapping about) is worth more to him than the million dollars.

Christine - Her sole purpose is to shed doubt on Coach's chances, but let's face it: Even if she somehow returns her chances of winning are just about as big as Andrea 2.0's. Non-existant.... but who knows, maybe she returns and immediately proceeds to boot Coach, fulfilling the "Coach is a Temporary player" storyline... most likely however, it'll be HER who is the temporary player. :-/

There is another thing which Coach -so far- lacks and he will be needing if he wants to stay an actual contender: doubt and a defined future. Coach is getting a spectacular edit, but so far, aside from the "this is Coach 3.0 and I'm here to win" confessional, there's little which actually points towards him winning. His relationship with Brandon does raise questions, as Coach trusts him despite Brandon being shown as a liar, but Brandon's interactions with Coach are mostly cordial and loyal, in sheer contrast to his interactions with the others. Perhaps Coach is the ONLY person who can truly trust Brandon, because he's the only person Brandon's loyal to... atm that is.

Now, for the Contender tally of the week: Since the playing field has been narrowed I'd like everyone who would want to participate to give me exactly ONE contender (or none if you don't have one). Multiple winner picks are NOT allowed from this week onward. This winner pick will be given 5 points.

Then I'd like you to give me up to 4 back-up (or Good) contenders who will be getting 3 points for this week. You can also give me less than 4 back-up contenders, but basically I'll count anyone in your TOP5 as the "winner pick" + the back up contenders", unless specified otherwise.

Finally, anyone else who you still consider "in the running" for the million dollars, though not as strongly as the back-up contenders, will be awarded 1 point.

As always castaways marked as eliminated and/or those who are NOT mentionned on you ballot will be given ZERO points.